Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011
|
|
- Hugh Ball
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Regional Economic Outlook October 211 Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan
2 Overview Global outlook (CCA) outlook and policies 2
3 Global outlook has weakened. Revisions to GDP growth (Percentage point change; June 211 WEO to September 211 WEO) World U.S. Euro area CEE Russia Emerging Asia Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook. 3
4 and recovery is uneven Real GDP Growth 1 (percent change from a year earlier) 12 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies 12 1 Emerging Asia United States Euro area Japan Central and Eastern Europe Russia Quarterly data, except for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where annual data are used. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook. 4
5 Equity markets have fallen Equity Markets (index; 27=1; national currency) DJ EURO STOXX S&P 5 Asia Latin America Russia Poland Turkey Romania Sep. 11 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and Bloomberg Sep. 11 5
6 Financial stability risks have increased Government Bond Spreads (two-year yield spreads over German bunds; basis points) Spain Italy Belgium France -5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and Bloomberg. 1/ One-year yield spreads over German bunds. Sep Poland Romania 1/ Russia (RHS) Turkey (RHS) -1 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan Sep. 11
7 Commodity prices still high but may have peaked Commodity Prices (index; 25=1) Food Beverages Agricultural raw materials Energy Metals Gold (RHS) US$ per troy ounce Jan-5 Aug-6 Mar-8 Oct-9 May-11 Dec Jan-5 Aug-6 Mar-8 Oct-9 May-11 Dec-12 Source: IMF, Global Data Source. 7
8 Downside risks have increased sharply Prospects for world GDP growth (annual percent change) Downside risks: Euro area crisis Advanced economy sovereign risks Escalating global financial volatility Oil supply concerns (risk of higher oil prices) 9% confidence interval (Sep 211 WEO) 9% confidence interval (Apr 211 WEO) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. 8
9 : Outlook and Challenges CCA region: Broadly positive growth outlook, but growing external risks Inflation remains a concern in many countries Banking sectors still impaired in some countries Oil and gas importers face: Limited fiscal space External vulnerabilities large current account deficits and debt burden Oil and gas exporters face: Large non-oil fiscal deficits The challenge of improving the quality of public spending Medium-term challenges: Creating jobs and fostering high and inclusive growth 9
10 Exports and remittances continue to grow solidly Exports of Goods (3-month moving average of year-on-year growth, percent) Remittance Inflows 12 6 ARM AZE GEO ARM GEO 9 KAZ KGZ TJK 4 KGZ TJK May-9 Nov-9 May-1 Nov-1 May-11-4 May-9 Nov-9 May-1 Nov-1 May-11 Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 1
11 Growth outlook broadly positive Real GDP (annual growth, percent) Real GDP Growth projection TKM UZB AZE 6 6 TJK KGZ 3 5 KAZ GEO -3 CCA oil and gas exporters CCA oil and gas importers 4 ARM World -6-9 Russia China Sources: National authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations and projections CEE 11
12 but with downside risks Risk Channel CCA Impact Russia - Remittances - Exports - FDI Global Slowdown Commodity Prices and Volumes Financial flows - Oil & gas - Aluminum - Cotton - Non-ferrous metals - Bank credit lines - FDI - Rollover needs - Investment in EUR banks and the region 12
13 Inflation remains a concern in the oil and gas exporters Headline and Core Inflation (average annual rate, in percent) 12 1 Headline inflation Core inflation Sources: National authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations and projections. 13
14 and in some oil and gas importers Headline CPI Inflation (12-month change; percent) 25 2 ARM GEO KGZ TJK CEE 15 TJK KGZ 1 5 GEO CEE ARM Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 14
15 Fiscal consolidation is needed Fiscal Deficits (fiscal balance; percent of GDP) Public Debt (percent of GDP) CCA oil and gas exporters¹ CCA oil and gas importers -3 CEE Sources: National Authorities; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ Non-oil and gas fiscal balance over non-oil and gas GDP is used. 15
16 Monetary policy more tightening needed Nominal Policy Rates 1,2 (percent) Real Policy Rates 1,2 (percent) CCA oil and gas exporters CCA oil and gas importers CEE Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jun-11 1 Weighted by PPPGDP. 2 CEE policy rate is the weighted average of Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Turkey. Sources: IMF, Global Data Source (GDS) database; and IMF staff calculations and projections. -6 CCA oil and gas exporters CCA oil and gas importers -8 CEE Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jun-11 16
17 Need to address external vulnerabilities in the oil and gas importers Current Account Balance (percent of GDP) External Debt (percent of GDP) International Reserves (percent of GDP) CCA oil and gas exporters CCA oil and gas importers CEE Sources: National authorities, IFS database, and IMF staff calculations and projections. 17
18 Need to repair bank balance sheets in some countries 3 Nonperforming Loans (on a 9-day basis; percent of total loans) (latest) AZE POL TJK ² Emerging Europe¹ KGZ SRB KAZ Sources: National authorities; GFSR. ¹Simple average of NPLs for Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. 2 3-day basis. 18
19 Policy Advice in the Event that Risks Materialize Allow greater ER flexibility Step-up communications on risks now Allow flexibility if pressures emerge Avoid a re-run of the 28-9 response: limit loss of reserves Ease monetary policy, if conditions warrant Lower global commodity prices may allow for easing of monetary policy Improve quality of fiscal spending assess scope for targeted response Reorient spending to protect the most vulnerable In CCA countries with fiscal space, consider counter-cyclical response 19
20 Youth Unemployment Rate (29) Medium-term challenges: Need to address unemployment, Measuring Unemployment in the South Caucasus (29, percent) Alternative/unofficial¹ Official Armenia Azerbaijan² Georgia ¹Sources: Armenia: Asian Development Bank (211); Azerbaijan: World Bank (21); Georgia: National Demographic Institute, Transparency International, and Oxford Analytica. ²Data for Azerbaijan refer to Youth Population and Unemployment¹ (percent) Serbia Georgia Croatia EU27 Russia Ukraine Slovenia Armenia Turkey Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Youth Population Share (21) Sources: United Nations; International Labour Organization; Eurostat; and national authorities. ¹ 28 youth unemployment for Azerbaijan, Croatia, and Georgia; 25 for Ukraine. Youth are those in the age group. 2
21 Better business environment...improve the business environment, Doing Business Ranking (212 ) GEO KAZ ARM AZE CEE KGZ EAP MENA LAC EM SA LIC SSA TJK UZB Source: World Bank, Doing Business Survey. 21
22 Better governance Better governance...and enhance governance 6 Rule of Law (country Rankings, 21) 6 Control of Corruption (country Rankings, 21) Source: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators 29. 1/ The Resource-rich group comprises the 41 resource-rich countries that are included in the Revenue Watch Institute's 21 index. 22
23 Policy Priorities Oil and Gas Importers: Aim for sustained fiscal consolidation Rein in large current account deficits Tighten monetary policy further (KGZ, TJK) Oil and Gas Exporters: Exit from accommodative fiscal and monetary policies to combat inflation Improve the transparency, quality, and efficiency of public spending If global growth deteriorates sharply, macroeconomic policy tightening may need to be put on hold in the short term Need to repair bank balance sheets and tackle high NPLs in some countries Medium-term policy priorities: Address unemployment Improve the business environment Enhance governance 23
24 To access the full report online or to provide comments, please visit: mcd/eng/mreo111.htm or go to and click on the link for Regional Economic Outlook 24
Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook
Juha Kähkönen International Monetary Fund November 212 Overview Global outlook (CCA) outlook and risks CCA macroeconomic policies CCA structural challenges 2 The global recovery has weakened 6 Global Manufacturing
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks
More informationRegional Economic Outlook. May 2015
Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia May 215 Outline Global Environment CCA Outlook, Risks, and Policies 2 Global growth remains moderate and uneven World U.S. Euro Area Emerging markets
More informationRegional Economic Outlook. November 2014
Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia November 214 Outline Global Outlook CCA Outlook, Risks, and Policies 2 An uneven global recovery continues Real GDP Growth Projections (Percent change
More informationCaucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook. November, 2017
1 Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook November, 217 2 Roadmap Outlook, Opportunities, and Challenges Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability Securing Higher and More Inclusive Growth Key Takeaways
More informationCentral and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities
Central and Eastern Europe: Central and Eastern Europe: Global spillovers and external vulnerabilities ICEG Annual Conference Brussels, May 28 Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Overview The
More informationRecent developments. Note: The author of this section is Yoki Okawa. Research assistance was provided by Ishita Dugar. 1
Growth in the Europe and Central Asia region is anticipated to ease to 3.2 percent in 2018, down from 4.0 percent in 2017, as one-off supporting factors wane in some of the region s largest economies.
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationThe impact of global market volatility on the EBRD region. CSE and OCE September 02, 2015
The impact of global market volatility on the EBRD region CSE and OCE September 02, 2015 KEY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA AND COMMODITY MARKETS Emerging markets growth has been decelerating since 2009
More informationProspects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region
Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region Ministry of Finance Cairo October 25, 2011 Andreas Bauer Division i i Chief, t International Monetary Fund Key points: The global outlook
More informationRegional Benchmarking Report
Financial Sector Benchmarking System Regional Benchmarking Report October 2011 About the Financial Sector Benchmarking System This Regional Benchmarking Report is part of a series of benchmarking reports
More informationMIND THE CREDIT GAP. Spring 2015 Regional Economic Issues Report on Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) recovery. repair.
Spring 215 Regional Economic Issues Report on Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) repair recovery MIND THE CREDIT GAP downturn expansion May, 215 Growth Divergence in 214 Quarterly GDP Growth,
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationProspects for the Region
Prospects for the Region OECD South Caucasus and Ukraine Initiative Workshop on Financial Market Development Warsaw, November 17, 29 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationRecovery and Challenges in Eastern Europe
Recovery and Challenges in Eastern Europe OECD - 7th annual meeting of Senior Budget Officials from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries (CESEE) Zagreb, Croatia, 3 June - 1 July 211 Franziska
More informationMacroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationCESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 November 17, 215 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit The reduction of external positions of BIS reporting banks vis-à-vis Central,
More informationAsian Development Outlook 2016: Asia s Potential Growth
Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia s Potential Growth Juzhong Zhuang Deputy Chief Economist Asian Development Bank Presentation at The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do
More informationPerformance of Private Equity Funds in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS Data to 31 December 2008
Performance of Private Equity Funds in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS Data to 31 December 2008 1 EBRD in Private Equity EBRD s portfolio of funds: over 15 years of investing in the asset class
More informationSEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana Real economy highlights Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint
More informationRecovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability and Poland Article IV preliminary conclusions
Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Recovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability and Poland Article IV preliminary conclusions CASE, Warsaw - May 27, 214 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative
More informationThe World Bank. Asia (ECA) Economic Update. Annual Meetings Istanbul October 3, 2009
The World Bank Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Economic Update Annual Meetings Istanbul October 3, 2009 More than $350 billion of ECA s foreign debt matures in 2010 Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group
More informationPerformance of Private Equity Funds in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS
Performance of Private Equity Funds in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS Data to 31 December 26 1 EBRD in Private Equity EBRD s portfolio of funds: 15 years of investing in the asset class Investment
More informationOutlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean. Saul Lizondo. Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund
Outlook for the World Economy: Implications for the Caribbean Saul Lizondo Associate Director Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund Trinidad id d and Tobago, September, 1 Presentation
More informationPerformance of EBRD Private Equity Funds Portfolio Data to 31 st December EBRD 2011, all rights reserved
Performance of EBRD Private Equity Funds Portfolio Data to 31 st December 2010 0 Portfolio Overview 1 EBRD in Private Equity EBRD s portfolio of funds: over 15 years of investing in the asset class 133
More informationPerformance of EBRD Private Equity Funds Portfolio to 31 st December 2011
Performance of EBRD Private Equity Funds Portfolio to 31 st December 211 Portfolio Overview EBRD in Private Equity EBRD s portfolio of funds: 2 years of investing in the asset class 137 funds 92 fund managers*
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationGrowth prospects and challenges in EBRD countries of operation. Sergei Guriev Chief Economist
Growth prospects and challenges in EBRD countries of operation Sergei Guriev Chief Economist Post-crisis slowdown in convergence became more protracted, affected emerging markets globally Is this slowdown
More informationSeminar Series on Regional Economic Integration
Seminar Series on Regional Economic Integration IMF Outreach Presentation on the IMF 214 Spillover Report Sweta Saxena Senior Economist IMF Research Department 26 September 214 9: 11: Manila time ADB Headquarters,
More informationTHE NEED TO ADDRESS FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION
SOUTH CAUCASUS AND UKRAINE INITIATIVE THE NEED TO ADDRESS FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION Working Group on Financial Markets Development and Impact of Central Banks 17 November 2009 Warsaw,
More informationLong Term Reform Agenda International Perspective
Long Term Reform Agenda International Perspective Asta Zviniene Sr. Social Protection Specialist Human Development Department Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank October 28 th, 2010 We will look
More informationBojan Markovic EBRD. Forces Shaping the Future of Europe and Much of the World. Financial and macroeconomic challenges
Bojan Markovic EBRD Forces Shaping the Future of Europe and Much of the World Financial and macroeconomic challenges ICTF Annual Global Trade Symposium Ft Lauderdale, 14 November 2016 1 Outline Longer
More informationEurope and Central Asia Region
Europe and Central Asia Region Overview: Growth in developing Europe and Central Asia region (box ECA.1) decelerated considerably in 212 after a relatively strong 211. All economies in the region had to
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationSpain France. England Netherlands. Wales Ukraine. Republic of Ireland Czech Republic. Romania Albania. Serbia Israel. FYR Macedonia Latvia
Germany Belgium Portugal Spain France Switzerland Italy England Netherlands Iceland Poland Croatia Slovakia Russia Austria Wales Ukraine Sweden Bosnia-Herzegovina Republic of Ireland Czech Republic Turkey
More informationRussian Federation. Recent Economic Developments and Challenges. October 2015 IMF MOSCOW OFFICE
Russian Federation Recent Economic Developments and Challenges IMF MOSCOW OFFICE October 215 1 Outline Shocks affecting Russia s economy Policy Reaction: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Responses Current economic
More informationIntroduction CHAPTER 1
CHAPTER 1 Introduction The onset of the financial crisis was evident as early as mid-2007 when the real estate bubble began to deflate throughout the United States and parts of Western Europe, triggering
More informationInternational Financial Market Indicators Short-Term Interest Rates Long-Term Interest Rates Stock Indices Corporate Bond Spreads
International Financial Market Indicators Short-Term Interest Rates Long-Term Interest Rates Stock Indices Corporate Bond Spreads Table A A A3 A4 Financial Indicators of the Austrian Corporate and Household
More information34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
More informationEquity Funds Portfolio Update. Data as of June 2012
Equity Funds Portfolio Update Data as of June 2012 Equity Funds at a Glance Equity Funds Portfolio: 142 investments made Russia/CIS EUR 1.17bln committed 46 funds 29 Active 17 Liquidated Average Age of
More informationgreat place to live and to locate you business Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Moldova
Invest in Moldova great place to live and to locate you business Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Moldova Moldova a strategic location Proximity to key markets European Union Market Commonwealth
More informationChallenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates
Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Takatoshi Kato Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund September 3, 27 1 9 Growth has been
More informationHow Do the Challenges Facing Emerging Europe Compare?
How Do the Challenges Facing Emerging Europe Compare? 12 th CEI Summit Economic Forum Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe First Shock: collapse in trade 6 4 World
More informationCESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 May 27, 214 In 213:Q4, BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions to CESEE countries by.3 percent of GDP, roughly by the same amount as in Q3. The scale
More informationInternational Economic Outlook
International Monetary Fund September 9, 16 International Economic Outlook Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department 1 Global and Regional Developments Relevant Issues Global and Regional
More informationAlbania. Restructuring Public Expenditure to Sustain Growth. Public Expenditure and Institutional Review
Albania Public Expenditure and Institutional Review Restructuring Public Expenditure to Sustain Growth Sector related presentations-social Protection Tirana March 15, 2007 Main messages 1. Total spending
More informationComparing pay trends in the public services and private sector. Labour Research Department 7 June 2018 Brussels
Comparing pay trends in the public services and private sector Labour Research Department 7 June 2018 Brussels Issued to be covered The trends examined The varying patterns over 14 years and the impact
More informationNon-Performing Loans in CESEE
Non-Performing Loans in CESEE Vienna, September 23, 2014 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe, Warsaw High NPLs ratios need to be addressed Boom-bust
More informationReimbursable Advisory Services in Europe and Central Asia (ECA)
Reimbursable Advisory Services in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Expanding Options for Our Clients: Global Knowledge, Strategy, and Local Solutions REIMBURSABLE ADVISORY SERVICES (RAS): What Are They? RAS
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
E U R Advanced Europe Emerging Europe Regional Economic Outlook Spring 18 Key Messages Strong economic growth but lead indicators point to a peak Much lower wage growth in most of advanced Europe than
More informationNPLs in Hungary. a regional perspective. Budapest, March 3, 2015
NPLs in a regional perspective Budapest, March 3, 215 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe, Warsaw Diverging NPL ratios 2 NPLs as percent of total
More informationWorld Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries
World Economic Outlook Central Europe and Baltic Countries Presentation by Susan Schadler and Christoph Rosenberg September 5 World growth returns to trend. (World real GDP growth, annual percent change)
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationWorld Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April
World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationTurkey and the Emerging. the Global Crisis. Yelda Yücel 14 June 2009 Nicosia
Turkey and the Emerging Market Economies during the Global Crisis Yelda Yücel 14 June 2009 Nicosia Green Shoots in The Global Economy? There are more signs of easing of the global recession in the second
More informationFinancial wealth of private households worldwide
Economic Research Financial wealth of private households worldwide Munich, October 217 Recovery in turbulent times Assets and liabilities of private households worldwide in EUR trillion and annualrate
More informationGlobal Outlook and Policy Challenges. Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department
Global Outlook and Policy Challenges Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department February, 29 Global Outlook Has Deteriorated, but Modest Turnaround Anticipated with Policy Stimulus 1 WEO
More informationGlobal Outlook. October 22, M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group
Global Outlook October 22, 214 M. Marc Stocker DEC-Development Prospects Group mstocker1@worldbank.org 1 About Growth Forecasts Public release of growth forecasts in the Global Economic Prospects in June
More informationCESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 May 11, 217 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit and Key Messages from the CESEE Bank Lending Survey The external positions of BIS
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationCENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Growth and Financial System Durmuş YILMAZ Governor February, 211 1 Presentation Outline I. Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy II. III. Monetary Policy Policy
More informationBULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - APRIL 2017 (PRELIMINARY DATA)
BULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - APRIL 2017 (PRELIMINARY DATA) In the period January - April 2017 Bulgarian exports to the EU increased by 8.6% 2016 and amounted to 10 418.6 Million BGN
More informationCESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 December 6, 216 Key developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit and Key Messages from the CESEE Bank Lending Survey The external positions of
More informationBULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - MAY 2017 (PRELIMINARY DATA)
BULGARIAN TRADE WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - MAY 2017 (PRELIMINARY DATA) In the period January - May 2017 Bulgarian exports to the EU increased by 10.8% 2016 and added up to 13 283.0 Million BGN (Annex,
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition
Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;
More informationSecond estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services
STAT/09/12 22 January 2009 Second estimate for the third quarter of 20 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions1, the EU272 external
More informationThe Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus
The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)
More informationTHE INVERTING PYRAMID: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES TO THE PENSION SYSTEMS IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
THE INVERTING PYRAMID: DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES TO THE PENSION SYSTEMS IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA 1 Anita M. Schwarz Lead Economist Human Development Department Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank
More informationAssessing Corporate Governance in Investee Companies
Assessing Corporate Governance in Investee Companies Gian Piero Cigna Principal Counsel, Office of the General Counsel EBRD Third DFI Conference on Corporate Governance Tunis, 20 October 2008 Presentation
More informationPension Reforms Revisited Asta Zviniene Sr. Social Protection Specialist Human Development Department Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank
Pension Reforms Revisited Asta Zviniene Sr. Social Protection Specialist Human Development Department Europe and Central Asia Region World Bank All Countries in the Europe and Central Asia Region Have
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationRecovery at risk? Central and Eastern Europe remains vulnerable to external funding threats.
Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Recovery at risk? Central and Eastern Europe remains vulnerable to external funding threats. May 5, 214 James Roaf Senior Resident Representative IMF Regional
More informationEU Investment Plan for Europe EBRD as a partner in implementation. Zsuzsanna Hargitai, Director, EU Funds Co-Financing & Financial Instruments, EBRD
EU Investment Plan for Europe EBRD as a partner in implementation Zsuzsanna Hargitai, Director, EU Funds Co-Financing & Financial Instruments, EBRD Brussels, 8 February 2017 Some distinctive features of
More informationEquity Funds Portfolio Update
Equity Funds Portfolio Update Data as of December 2013 About EBRD Equity Funds Team The Equity Funds Team (EFT) currently manages more than 2.3bn in carrying value and unfunded commitments and maintains
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationThe State of the World s Macroeconomy
The State of the World s Macroeconomy Marcelo Giugale Senior Director Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Washington DC, December 3 rd 2014 Content 1. What s Happening? Growing Concerns
More informationDeveloping Countries to Remain Resilient - Risks Considerable
Developing Countries to Remain Resilient - Risks Considerable Financial turmoil a serious threat that has proven manageable so far Developing country dynamism cushions the effect on growth while inflationary
More informationTRADE IN GOODS OF BULGARIA WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - JUNE 2018 (PRELIMINARY DATA)
TRADE IN GOODS OF BULGARIA WITH EU IN THE PERIOD JANUARY - JUNE 2018 (PRELIMINARY DATA) In the period January - June 2018 the exports of goods from Bulgaria to the EU increased by 10.7% 2017 and amounted
More informationJanuary 12 th,
www.financeisrael.mof.gov.il Table of Contents 1 Main Indicators 2 Real Economy 3 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments 4 Labor Market 5 Fiscal Stance 6 Price Stability and Monetary Policy 7 Innovative
More informationThe European Financial and Competitiveness Crisis: the Central-Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) situation
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at The European Financial and Competitiveness Crisis: the Central-Eastern and
More informationSome Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
More informationRiding the global growth wave. Richard Grieveson. Press conference, 13 March New wiiw forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe,
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies wiiw.ac.at Press conference, 13 March 2018 New wiiw forecast for Central, East and Southeast
More information4. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade
24 4. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade 4. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade Current account deficit in 2014 was lower than the one realised in 2013 In the period January- November 2014, current
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationGolden Aging in Emerging Europe and Central Asia
Golden Aging in Emerging Europe and Central Asia Emily Sinnott Europe and Central Asia Region Working Group on Ageing, Seventh Meeting, Geneva November 20, 2014 Related Work Aging-related Studies Emerging
More informationБОЛЬШЕ, ЧЕМ НЕФТЬ. ПУТЬ КАЗАХСТАНА к росту благосостояния через диверсификацию
БОЛЬШЕ, ЧЕМ НЕФТЬ ПУТЬ КАЗАХСТАНА к росту благосостояния через диверсификацию What this Report is About: Diversification and Development Resource dependence is not a curse Shared Prosperity Kazakhstan
More informationReport on financial stability
Report on financial stability Márton Nagy MNB Club 26 April 212 Key risks Deteriorating lending capacity stemming particularly from liquidity side raises the risk of a credit crunch, mainly in the corporate
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationSECTION 2. MACROECONOMIC CHANNELS
SECTION 2. MACROECONOMIC CHANNELS 2.1. Food and Energy Price Inflation 9. Food price inflation varies substantially among ECA countries with poorer countries tending to experience higher inflation rates.
More informationNdihma Ekonomike in Albania Key Challenges and Opportunities
Ndihma Ekonomike in Albania Key Challenges and Opportunities Ufuk Guven World Bank, Europe Central Asia Region Social Protection Team ABCDE Albania Conference June 2, 2010 Social Protection Main Poverty
More informationWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher
More informationEconomic Trends and Challenges
Economic Trends and Challenges in Central and Eastern Europe Christoph Rosenberg International Monetary Fund Warsaw Regional Office April 2007 Note: These are the author s s own views, not necessarily
More informationLatvia Country Profile
Latvia Country Profile EU Tax Centre June 2018 Key tax factors for efficient cross-border business and investment involving Latvia EU Member State Double Tax Treaties With: Albania Armenia Austria Azerbaijan
More informationWorking with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Matti Hyyrynen 15 th March 2018
Working with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Matti Hyyrynen 15 th March 2018 EBRD Introduction An international financial institution supporting the development of sustainable well-functioning
More information