Economic outlook in the Western Balkans

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1 Economic outlook in the Western Balkans Holger Muent, Regional Head Western Balkans June 217

2 The Western Balkans convergence challenge: decades or centuries? FullconvergencewithEUlivingstandardscanrangefrom4yearsinanoptimisticscenariotomorethan2 years in a pessimistic scenario. Thespeedof catchupdependsonthepaceof addressingthechallengesholdingbacktheregion sprivatesector from developing its full potential- i.e. better economic institutions and an enabling business environment. Convergence scenarios Current international Dollar 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, optimistic scenario 253 baseline scenario 278 GDP per capita pesimistic scenario 222 EU WB Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Authors calculations. 2

3 Grounds for optimism: economic growth is picking up Economic activity picked up in 216. The weighted average growth rate for the region was 2.8 per cent, comparedwith2.2percentin215. All economies in the WB-6 region are forecast to grow in 217 (2.9 per cent) and 218 (3.2 per cent), remaining above the EBRD average but slightly below the world average. 6 Economic performance 5 World GDP growth, % EBRD region WB Source: IMF (WEO, April 217), EBRD (Regional Economic Prospects, May 217). 3

4 Private consumption and investment are driving the recovery Over the period , private consumption and investment were the main growth drivers. Further short-term growth will also be supported by a gradual recovery of credit activity and major infrastructure projects. GDP growth dynamics Western Balkans Statistical discrepancy Net Exports Gross capital formation 2. Government consumption 1..3 Private consumption GDP Source: National authorities; EBRD calculations. 4

5 Inflation remains low, comparable to EU-11 countries Inflation rates, % 4 2 Latest Same month previous year -2 Source: National authorities via CEIC. 5 Estonia Czech Rep. Lithuania Hungary Poland Croatia Slovenia Latvia Slovak Rep. Romania Bulgaria Albania Serbia Kosovo Montenegro FYR Macedonia BiH Inflation, YoY, per cent EU-11 WB-6

6 Public deficits are down recently in most countries Fiscal deficit, % GDP. ALB BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB avg avg -7. Source: IMF WEO, April

7 but public debt remains elevated in Albania, Serbia and Montenegro 9 8 General government debt, % 7 6 Maastrict criteria Source: IMF WEO database, April

8 leading to high interest expenses 3.5 Interest expenses, % GDP Source: IMF WEO database, April

9 Current account deficits remain problematic, exacerbated by weak competitiveness 1. Current Account balance, % GDP 5.. SLO HUN CRO BUL SVK EST LIT CZE LAT POL ROM MKD SRB BIH KOS ALB MNE -5. EU-11 WB Source: IMF WEO database, April

10 and boosting FDI from current low levels is crucial TheregionlagssignificantlybehindtheEUintermsof FDIstockpercapitareceived.Thecatchuppotential is obvious. Intra-regional FDI is limited, although Serbia is an important player in BiH(second biggest investor) and in Montenegro(sixth biggest). Gulf countries and China are growing in importance. 2, 18, FDI stock per capita (EUR) 18,212 16, 14, 14,271 12, 1, 8, 6, 5,986 4, 2, 2,62 ALB BIH MKD WB SRB EU-11 MNE EU EU-15 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. 1

11 NPL ratios are high but decreasing in most WB-6 countries Non-performing loans as % of total loans % 25 Latest Same month, previous year EST LVA POL CZE SVK LTU SVN HUN ROM HRV BGR KOS MKD BIH MNE ALB SRB EU-11 WB-6 Source: National authorities via CEIC. 11

12 Average unemployment in WB-6 is three times the rate in EU-11 Unemployment rate, % Unemployment rate, per cent Latest Same month previous year Regional average CZE HUN POL ROM EST BGR SVN LTU SVK LVA HRV SRB ALB MNE MKD BIH KOS EU-11 WB-6 Source: IMF WEO, April

13 and youth unemployment is particularly problematic 7 Youth unemployment rate, % 6 Latest Youth unemployment rate, per cent Previous year Regional average CZE HUN EST SVN POL LTU BGR LVA SVK ROM HRV ALB MNE SRB MKD KOS BIH EU-11 WB-6 Source: National authorities, via CEIC. 13

14 Summary Overall, strong resilience and gradual improvements in economic performance But familiar structural deficiencies remain: Large stock of NPLs, coming down only gradually High current account deficits and limited FDI Investment Climate High unemployment levels, especially among the youth 14

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