Scenarios and drivers - for High & Low salmon prices 2018
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1 Scenarios and drivers - for High & Low salmon prices 2018 BRUSSELS SEMINAR Hotel Bloom 23rd Apr 2018 by Ragnar Nystøyl
2 Atlantic Salmon Market Development All markets / / e 18/17 Q ,1 % ,8 % ,1 % Q ,8 % ,6 % ,0 % Q ,2 % ,0 % ,5 % Q ,8 % ,7 % ,4 % Total ,7 % ,7 % ,7 % Q1: EU: tonnes (+ 6,7 %) USA: tonnes (+ 6,9 %) Japan: tonnes (- 2,0 %) Russia: tonnes (+ 38 %) All Others: tonnes (+ 12,4 %) Totalt: tonnes (+ 9,1 %) Price Change Q1: In NOK: - 8 % In EUR: - 14 %
3 Development through the quarter. A different story Supply All Markets Spot price change In NOK (& EUR)
4 Feedsales development ; Including 2017 EUROPA AMERICAS
5 Outlook; Harvest volume Atlantic salmon Expectations can change swiftly Our estimate Medio Jan 2018: + 7 % : tonn WFE Our estimate Ultimo April 2018: + 4 % : tonn WFE - What did happen during these 3 months?
6 Feedsales Europe; Q1-18 Norway: tonnes (- 4%) Scotland: tonnes (-25 %) Færøyene: tonnes (- 20%) Total sample: tonnes ( - 8 %)
7 Feedsales Americas; Q1-18 Chile: tonnes (+ 6 %) Herof Atlantics: tonnes (+ 4 %) North America: tonnes (+ 10 %) Americas - Atlantic tonnes (+ 6 %)
8 Relative Feeding; Atlantics Chile
9 Relative Feeding; Atlantics Norway
10 NOK / Kilo Contract prices (& Contract-level) 80,00 70,00 60,00 SSB Nasdaq +1,00 +2,16 +0,25 +2,95-0,74-0,49-3,03-4,34-1,60 50,00 40,00-2,45-2,67-2,80-1,72 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q
11 European price vs. American price
12 Americas Atlantic Salmon Harvest Estimates per Quarter Hereof: North America tonnes (+ 2 %) Chile tonnes (+ 25 %)
13 US West Coast; Fresh Whole Strong large-fish premium
14 Europe Atlantic Salmon Harvest Estimates per Quarter
15 EU Major growth countries Q Q1-17 Q1-18e Chg. % Chg. Volume France % UK % Italy % Belgium % Finland % Sweden % Spain % 940 Portugal % 670 Netherlands % 590 Germany %
16 Fresh salmon Retail price level; «Not competitive» or Change of league?
17 Fresh salmon Retail price level; «Not competitive» or Change of league?
18 Alternative Europe Supply Scenario - Second Half 18 Focus Norway
19 Norway; Relative Feeding «Before» and «Now»
20 2018; A «late» cold winter / Cold spring Also affecting end-april- & May-growth
21 Compensation Growth?? Second Half 2018??
22 Compensation Growth 2nd Half 18 Effects vs. Std. Scenario... July December 2018: Increased Feedconsumption: Increased Harvest volume: tonnes tonnes WFE Hereof Q tonnes «Hereof Q tonnes «Increased Average Harvest weight + 0,10 0,12 kilo
23 Scenarios For High / Low Salmon Prices
24 Q Spot Price? (In NOK) Scenario A: At Q level (Mid) Still decline feedsales Europe May picking up in June Scenario B: At Q level (Low) Retail price level shifts up (Fresh) + No campaigns. Current price level hampering Asia / China sales Chile presence Compensation growth already from May. Scenario C: Over Q2-level (High) Asia sales
25 Second Half Scenario A: 2016-level (NOK 61 66; High) No compensation growth Sea-lice combat not making this possible Further challenges Scotland, Faroes, Iceland Chile productivity declines.. EUR / NOK stilll above 9,50. Absence China grey trade -> Spurring demand/smoothing normal channels.. Scenario B: 2017-level (NOK 50 56; Low) Q2-18» - Slow harvests May /June -Europe yet production picks up Compensation growth in Norway + other Europe Chile surprise positively with respect to productivity & Growth pressure US The price-hike from Q1-Q2, has seriously hampered demand in Europe No campaigns in Q3, Reluctance from buyers EUR / NOK below 9,30 - New protectionism measures from China? Scenario C: As Fishpool (NOK 57 60; Mid) A mix of Scenario A & B?
26 Playing with statistics.. Last 15 years; - Norwegian Spot price (NOK) How many years have 2nd Half price, been below the April-price? How many years have the Q2-price, been higher than the Q1-price? How many years have the 2nd Half price, been more than 5 % below the Q2-price? How many years have the 2nd Half price, been more than 10 % below the Q2-price? How many years have the Q4-price been higher than the Q3-price?
27 Last 15 years; - Norwegian Spot price (NOK) 2nd Half price, below the April-price? 11 out of 15 5 out of 6 with «Cold winters» Q2-price, higher than the Q1-price? 9 out of 15 5 out of 6 with «Cold winters» 2nd Half price, more than 5 % below the Q2-price? 9 out of 15 5 out of 6 with «Cold winters» 2nd Half price, more than 10 % below the Q2-price? 4 out of 15 3 out of 6 with «Cold winters» Q4-price, higher than the Q3-price? 6 out of 15 (Hereof 5 during the last 6 years) 1 out of 6 with «Cold winters»
28 Thank you for the attention
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