Can performance continue?

Transcription

1 Can performance continue? UBS 13 th Annual Nordic Financial Services Conference 2 September 21 CEO Rune Bjerke

2 Strong pre-crisis position Pre-crisis market capitalisation 31 August Scandinavia 1 Europe Global DnB NOR DnB NOR DnB NOR Source: Factset 31 Aug 21

3 Even stronger post-crisis position Pre-crisis market capitalisation 31 August Scandinavia Europe Global DnB NOR DnB NOR DnB NOR Post-crisis market capitalisation 31 August Scandinavia Europe Global DnB NOR DnB NOR DnB NOR Source: Factset 31 Aug

4 Where to grow? Share of group income, 3 June 21 Share of net lending, per segment - 3 June 21 International growth ambitions, but Norway will still be dominant Norwegian units 84 % Large corporates 37 % Private individuals 47 % International units 11% DnB NORD 5 % SME 16 %

5 How to grow? Share of group income, 3 June 21 Share of net lending, per segment - 3 June 21 A balanced portfolio - also in the future Norwegian units 84 % Large corporates 37 % Private individuals 47 % International units 11% DnB NORD 5 % SME 16 %

6 Opportunities in Norway Two drivers: 1. Strong macro- economic developments 2. DnB NOR's capacity and potential in the Norwegian market Den Norske Opera & Ballett

7 Norwegian public finances are sound Net public assets in per cent of GDP, Italy Japan Germany France UK USA Spain Sweden Norway Sources: IMF and OECD

8 GDP growth expected to be about 1 per cent higher in Norway than in the Euro zone over the next three years GDP % change y/y Euro zone Mainland Norway Source: DnB NOR Markets

9 3-6 per cent lower unemployment rate than in comparable countries Unemployment (per cent of labour force) Per cent 12 USA Euro zone UK Sweden Norway ,7 3,3 3,5 3,4 3, Source: DnB NOR Markets

10 3 per cent growth in oil and gas investments Oil and gas investments Per cent 2 Volume growth from previous year % of Mainland GDP (rha) jan.4 jan.5 jan.6 jan.7 jan.8 jan.9 jan.1 jan.11 jan.12 jan Source: DnB NOR Markets

11 Population growth and urbanisation Projected population as at 1 Jan Million 6 5,8 5, , , ,8 4,6 4, Source: Statistics Norway (middle growth scenario)

12 Utilise our key competitive advantages in Norway 1. Unique customer base 2. Strong distribution power 3. Deep and broad product range 4. Advanced technological capabilities

13 Increased focus on gaining market shares - particularly in the large cities outside Oslo Total market share DnB NOR - private and corporate

14 Growth potential in the Norwegian savings market - reinforced focus Financial vs real (housing) saving NOK million of net income Savings rate (per cent), rha Net real investments Net financial investments 7. NOK mill % % 1.5% 3.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.6% 6.1% 5.9% Source: Statistics Norway and DnB NOR Markets

15 International opportunities Two drivers: 1. Norwegian traditional industries 2. Positive macro-economic development in the Baltic countries

16 Our portfolio of large corporates reflects the traditional Norwegian export industries Norwegian exports by sector

17 Strongest growth potential within energy Exposure at default 3 June 21, NOK billion DnB NORD 4% Shipping 8% Energy 4 % MTOE Forecast of world energy demand Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables 12 1 Private individuals 42% Corporate 54%

18 We believe in long-term retail growth in the Baltics GDP per cent (y/y) Per cent 15 Latvia Estonia Lithuania The joint venture DnB NORD will be dissolved NORD/LB has not excercised its option to take over the operation in Poland All conclusions regarding values will be made no later than end- January Sources: DnB NOR Markets and Datastream

19 Solid outlook for combined spreads Per cent Development in average interest rate spreads 1) month NIBOR Lending spread Combined spread - weighted average Deposit spread 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 1) Excluding lending to and deposits from credit institutions and impaired loans

20 Positive volume outlook Net lending (NOK billion) Net lending to customers Private individuals Exchange rate adjusted Corporate lending NOK billion per cent volume growth in per cent volume growth from June 28 3 Sept Dec March 29 3 June 29 3 Sept Dec March 21 3 June 21

21 Stable access to long-term funding longer maturities at competitive prices 21 NOK billion Maturity Covered bonds Senior bonds Spread (3-month Euribor) Total bp 29 NOK billion Maturity Spread Covered bonds Senior bonds Total bp 28 NOK billion Maturity Spread Covered bonds Senior bonds Total bp

22 Long-term fundamentals are positive Opportunities in Norway International opportunities Two drivers: 1. Strong macro-economic developments 2. DnB NOR's capacity and potential in the Norwegian market Two drivers: 1. Norwegian traditional industries 2. Positive macro-economic development in the Baltic countries