What is the global economic outlook?
|
|
- Alfred Gilmore
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area Japan Total OECD.... Brazil.... China India...9. Indonesia.... Russian Federation.... South Africa.... Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database.
2 Projections Projections Projections - OECD Big Annualised quarterly real GDP growth, in per cent United States Euro area Japan Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database. Projections - EMEs Annualised quarterly real GDP growth, in per cent China Indonesia India Russia OECD Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database.
3 Downside risks Unemployment Unemployment rates diverging Percentage of labour force United States Euro area Japan 9 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database. Downside risks to the outlook Euro area crisis is the largest downside risk : o Policy measures (OMT, ESM) have dampened market pressures but risks of further flare ups remain. o Negative financial feed-back loops still operational. o Underlying rebalancing still in progress. Excessive budgetary tightening in the United States (the fiscal cliff ) Geopolitical risk to oil prices High unemployment undermining confidence EMEs transition to domestic sources of growth
4 t- t- t- t- t- t t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+9 t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+ t+9 Recoveries compared Upside risks Upside risks to the outlook Comprehensive resolution of euro area crisis Medium-term fiscal framework agreed for United States, and releasing pent up demand Structural reform benefits flowing through earlier than assumed Recoveries compared Cumulative change in OECD-wide output gap from quarter t 9s: GDP peak at t = 9Q 9s: GDP peak at t = 9Q s: GDP peak at t = Q Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database.
5 Deleveraging Slow recovery Reasons for the slow recovery Private sector deleveraging : o More advanced in the US, less in the euro area but mixed. Fiscal consolidation : o Fiscal consolidation, while necessary, has affected growth. Euro area crisis : o Crisis has dragged on longer than necessary due to insufficient and delayed policy action. EMEs slowdown : o Domestic factors and only partly induced by euro area crisis. 9 Deleveraging is progressing Household gross debt, in percent of net disposable income 9 United States Japan Euro area Note: Data for USA and Japan are not consolidated. For Japan, net disposable income for the year is an estimate from the OECD Economic Outlook 9 database. Source: OECD Annual National Accounts, and OECD Economic Outlook 9 database.
6 Consumer confidence Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Business sentiment Business sentiment is mixed Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing United States Euro zone Japan Brasil China India Source: Markit. Consumer confidence is weak Consumer confidence survey indicators, standard deviations United States. Euro area Japan Note: Normalised at 999M to M period average and presented in units of standard deviation. Values above zero signify levels of consumer confidence above the period average. Source: Datastream, and European Commission.
7 Euro area impact on trade World trade World trade has stopped growing CPB indicator of world merchandise trade, = Source: CPB. Euro area trade spillovers on emerging economies Percentage points Change in GDP growth contribution due to direct effects of changes in export growth to euro area, first half of relative to first half of. Brazil Indonesia China India Russia South Africa Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9, and OECD calculations.
8 Unit labour costs Euro area cost of credit The cost of credit among euro area countries has diverged Bank interest rates for lending to business, percent France Greece Germany Ireland Italy Portugal Netherlands Spain 9 9 Note: Cost of credit is defined as interest rates on new loans to non-financial corporations (all maturities) with the exception of Greece where it refers to new loans with maturity of up to one year. Last observation is September. Source: European Central Bank. Euro area unit labour costs Index = Germany Spain France Greece Ireland Italy Portugal 9 9 Note: The figures shown are for whole economy unit labour costs. If wage developments in the public sector diverge from those in the rest of the economy, changes in private sector costs may differ from those shown. This may mean that economy-wide labour costs are falling more sharply than private sector costs in the EU/IMF programme countries. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database.
9 Downside scenario Rebalancing in the euro area Rebalancing in the euro area countries Current account balances, in per cent of GDP Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland cyclically adjusted Germany - - Note: Assuming the economy s cyclical position is the same as that of its (trade weighted) trading partners. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 9 database, and OECD calculations Downside risks from intensification of euro area crisis Euro area Japan GDP growth, per cent United States OECD Source: OECD calculations. Baseline projection Intensified euro area crisis affecting global financial markets 9
10 Euro area bank capitalisation Policies for the euro area Policies for the euro area Break feedback loop between banks and governments : o Strengthen capital position of banks. o Banking union (single supervisor, bank resolution, common deposit insurance, common fiscal backstop). Break feedback loop between exit risk, bond yields and debt sustainability : o Commitment to reforms and ESM/OMT. o Fiscal Compact. o Deal with legacy debt. Boost growth : o Structural reforms and Single Market. 9 Capital positions of euro area banks need strengthening Required increases in capital of large banks to reach a % leverage ratio, in percent of GDP PRT ITA AUT ESP IRL EURO AREA FIN NLD DEU BEL FRA GRC Note: Based on around euro area banks. The number of banks in the sample for each country displayed and the corresponding number of banks with less than % leverage ratio (in brackets) are as follows: Austria 9 (), Belgium 9 (), Finland (), France (), Germany (), Greece 9 (), Ireland (), Italy (), Netherlands 9 (), Portugal () and Spain (). Source: Company Reports, and OECD.
11 Monetary policy Upside for the euro area Upside for the euro area Fiscal consolidation is progressing : o Immediately beyond the forecast period, debt-to-gdp ratios falling in most euro area countries, boosting confidence. Structural reforms may have larger than expected positive short-run effects Progress with institution building may proceed more rapidly than expected and have strong confidence effects Monetary policy Further easing required in Japan, euro area and some EMEs. United States should keep current stance If downside risks materialise, a stronger response would be warranted : o Including further quantitative easing, and forward guidance. Caveats : o Creating conditions for high leverage and bubbles. o Misallocation of credit as costs of forbearance and ever-greening fall.
12 Fiscal policy Fiscal policy Fiscal policy () Multipliers are likely to be high at the current juncture : o Significant weight on expenditure cuts. o Limited room for monetary easing and impaired financial system. o Simultaneous consolidations across countries. General recommendations : o Choose an appropriate pace of consolidation. o Let automatic stabilizers play around structural consolidation path. o Countries with space should ease if downside materialises. United States : link fiscal cliff resolution to medium term consolidation Euro area : more effectiveness by coordinated action Fiscal policy () Consolidation needs to balance : o Short-term demand impact. o Social impact. o Long-term growth impact. Mix of consolidation instruments can improve tradeoffs Preferred instruments : o Reduce tax breaks to wealthy and cut un-warranted tax expenditures. o Increase taxes on real estate and energy in some countries. o Shift taxes from labour to consumption. o Tackle public spending inefficiencies. Consolidation and inequality o Transfers versus taxes.
13 Long-term scenario and policy Long-term scenario Long-term shift in the composition of global GDP China, % India, % United States, % Percentage of global trend GDP, PPPs Japan, % Other non- OECD, % Other OECD, % Euro area, % China, % India, % United States, % Euro area, % Japan, % Other non-oecd, % Other OECD, % India, % China, % United States, % Japan, % Euro area, 9% Other OECD, % Note: Global GDP is taken as the sum of GDP for OECD and non-oecd G countries. Source: Johansson, Å., et al. (), OECD Economic Policy Papers, No.. Other non- OECD, % Long-term developments and policy implications Long-term global developments : o Growth will be sustained by emerging economies but at a declining rate. o Relative sizes of economies will shift dramatically. o GDP per capita gaps will narrow, but differences will persist. o Saving will decline in line with demographics. o Current account imbalances may build up. Role of policy : o Product market reforms will speed income convergence. o Labour market and retirement reforms and rising education levels will lift long-run GDP. o Ambitious fiscal consolidation and structural reforms would reduce imbalances and boost growth.
14 Thank you
The near-term global economic outlook
Overview The near-term global economic outlook Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist OECD 1 Overview World growth has slowed, including in EMEs. Trade has weakened. Unemployment is high
More informationWhat is the economic outlook for OECD countries?
The outlook What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent.....9. -..9 Japan. -... Total OECD.... Brazil....
More informationHigh Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy?
High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy? Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist, OECD 1 Central projection growth, annualised, in
More informationThe Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November h00 Paris time
The Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November 2013 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist OECD Economic Outlook: key messages
More informationOutlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok October, 2009
Outlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok 26 28 October, 2009 Dave Turner OECD, Economics Department OECD Outlook: Outline 1. Recovery underway but will probably be slow 2. Risks and
More informationCyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area
Cyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area Presentation by Val Koromzay, Director for Country Studies, OECD to the Brussels Forum, April 2004 1 1 I. Introduction: Why is the issue important?
More informationThe OECD Global Economic Outlook
The OECD Global Economic Outlook Nigel Pain OECD Economics Department Edinburgh, 11 July 2013 NCSL Symposium for Legislative Leaders 1 Overview Presentation structure Current situation and prospects. Global
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Moving forward in difficult times. 3 rd December Mauro Pisu OECD Senior Economist
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Moving forward in difficult times 3 rd December 2015 Mauro Pisu OECD Senior Economist Key issues Global trade weakness Harbinger of further slowing of global GDP growth? China s role
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationTHE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D THE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS Jeffrey Franks Director, IMF Europe Office International Monetary Fund February 2, 2017 1 MONETARY UNION HAS IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENTS
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL Aaron Institute for Economic Policy Annual Conference May 4, 217 Craig Beaumont, European Department, IMF Outline World economic outlook (WEO) Broader trends
More informationOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (A EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE) GIC Conference, London, 3 June, 2016 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department Key messages 1 The global economy is stuck in a low growth
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More informationHamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York
Hamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York 1 Global macroeconomic trends Major headwinds Risks and uncertainties Policy questions and
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationHow to Get Back on the Fast Track?
REGIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES REPORT ON CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE How to Get Back on the Fast Track? MAY, 216 EUROPEAN DEPARTMENT Map of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe Baltics CEE
More information17 January 2019 Japan Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist
Fiscal challenges and inclusive growth in ageing societies 17 January 219 Japan Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist G2 populations are ageing rapidly Expected life expectancy at age 65 198 215 26 Japan
More informationOECD long-term projections for the global economy. David Turner, OECD
OECD long-term projections for the global economy David Turner, OECD CMTEA Workshop, 1 st Feb 2013 Overview of long-term model Coverage: OECD & non-oecd G20 countries to 2060 Potential output projections
More informationEurope in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020
Europe in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020 Rafael Doménech Economic recovery and Europe 2020: Towards smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Wilton Park, October 24, 2012 Main messages
More informationSchwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2016/17 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade
Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft /7 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade Christian Ragacs, Klaus Vondra Abteilung für volkswirtschaftliche Analysen, OeNB
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More informationUN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis
UN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis New York, 18 December 2012: Growth of the world economy has weakened
More informationOverview of the political economic and financial situation in Italy
FEBAF Paris Europlace Italian French dialogue on financial services Paris, 3 september 215 Overview of the political economic and financial situation in Italy Franco Bassanini 1 - 3 Italy finally out of
More informationWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher
More informationFrom Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies. Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department
From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department Peterson Institute May 2, 213 1 Main Questions How bad is the fiscal
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed
More informationStructural perspectives on European employment, productivity and growth in a global context Sintra, Portugal, 23 May 2015
Structural perspectives on European employment, productivity and growth in a global context Sintra, Portugal, 23 May 2015 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Prolonged weak demand has left
More informationOECD Economic Surveys EURO AREA
OECD Economic Surveys EURO AREA MARCH 212 OVERVIEW This Survey of the Euro Area is being released together with the Survey of the European Union. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice
More informationTHE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Corinne Luu ECO/MPD 23 March 2017
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Corinne Luu ECO/MPD 23 March 2017 Global GDP growth to pick up modestly, boosted by fiscal initiatives Quarterly global growth Global GDP growth projections Note: Estimated
More informationSlovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges
Copyright rests with the author Slovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges Presentation by Mark De Broeck European Department, IMF Seminar Organized by the European Commission November
More informationSpeaking Points for the Gaidar Forum Economic Perspective for Europe and Russia
Speaking Points for the Gaidar Forum Economic Perspective for Europe and Russia It is my pleasure and honor to take part in this panel to discuss the economic perspectives for Europe and Russia. Given
More informationWorld Economic Outlook
World Economic Outlook Marco E. Terrones Assistant to the Director Research Department, IMF May 2012 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK No. 91
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK No. 91 Press Conference Paris, 22 May 2012 10h (Paris time) Angel Gurría Secretary-General & Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist For a video link to the press
More informationStronger growth, but risks loom large
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Stronger growth, but risks loom large Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Álvaro S. Pereira OECD Chief Economist ad interim Paris, 3 May Global growth will be around 4% Investment
More informationECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationWorld Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April
World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing
More informationCapital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital
Capital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital Max = 10 9.0 Hong Kong 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 40 Source: Milken Institute United Kingdom U.S. India China Brazil Russia
More informationThe euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016
The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation
More informationHOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES
HOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES Austrian National Bank Workshop - Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the US - any solutions available? September 29, 2008 - Vienna Christophe
More informationAn interim assessment
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 29 March 2012 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Growth is expected to be
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook
More informationThe Norwegian Economy
The Norwegian Economy NORINT0500 - Norwegian Life and Society Spring 2018 Hilde Karoline Midsem 19.03.2018 Outline of today s lecture 1. Some facts 2. Production, trade and the history of oil 3. The labor
More informationOECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Presentation to LUISS 10 April 2017 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Global
More informationGlobal Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook. Jan 2010 Rhys Herbert
Global Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook Jan 21 Rhys Herbert rherbert@oxfordeconomics.com Which scenario do you favour? Short-term outlook (a) W -shaped cycle Growth initially boosted by inventory rebuild
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK No.80
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK No.8 Press Conference Paris, 8th November h Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist For a video link to the press conference and related material : www.oecd.org/oecdeconomicoutlook Summary
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationFiscal policy in Europe: What is the appropriate stance?
Fiscal policy in Europe: What is the appropriate stance? Gernot Müller (U Bonn and CEPR) ETLA fiscal policy seminar Helsinki, October 16, 212 Fiscal stance in Europe Estimating multipliers Fiscal policy
More information2016 External Sector Report
216 External Sector Report Global Imbalances and Policy Challenges September, 216 o Evolution of Global Current Accounts and Exchange Rates Widening and reconfiguration of imbalances in 215 Drivers: Asymmetric
More informationTHE ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS
THE ECONOMY AND CAPITAL MARKETS Clément Gignac Sr VP & Chief economist ia Financial Group September 2017 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this presentation are based on actual market conditions and may
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationAn interim assessment
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 5 April 2011 11h Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary-General 1. The news has of course been
More informationThe Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies Mauricio Soto Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund January 212 The views expressed herein are those of the author
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationIrish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia
Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia Diarmaid Smyth, Central Bank of Ireland 18 June 2015 Agenda 1 Background to Irish economic performance 2 Economic
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More informationDemographics, Structural Reform and the Growth Outlook for Europe
Demographics, Structural Reform and the Growth Outlook for Europe Karl Whelan University College Dublin Kieran McQuinn ESRI Presentation at UCD October 30, 2014 Debt Crisis or Growth Crisis? Highly indebted
More informationInterim Economic Assessment
Interim Economic Assessment Ongoing recovery for advanced economies, variation among emerging economies 11 March 1 Overall, most signs point to a continued underlying strengthening of the pace of growth
More informationOECD Economic Outlook. Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea Desk 25 November 2014
OECD Economic Outlook Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea Desk 5 November 1 The global economy is stuck in low gear World GDP growth Per cent, seasonally-adjusted annualised rate 8 6 - - -6-8 Average (1995-7)
More informationWhat could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper
What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper acooper@oxfordeconomics.com June 2011 What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? New stage in Eurozone debt crisis: first
More informationIs the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva 25 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Slow and halting progress Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group October, 22, 2012 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive May/June financial turmoil
More informationRIETI BBL Seminar Handout
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) RIETI BBL Seminar Handout Stronger growth remains elusive: Urgent policy response is needed February 29, 2016 Speaker: Catherine L. Mann http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
More informationInsolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017
Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.
More informationTrade and Development Board Sixty-first session. Geneva, September 2014
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT Trade and Development Board Sixty-first session Geneva, 15 26 September 2014 Item 3: High-level segment Tackling inequality through trade and development:
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More informationRegional Economic Issues in CESEE
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE JVI Lecture, Vienna, February 8, 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Outlook for CESEE 2 Within CESEE dichotomy:
More informationModelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe National Institute Global Econometric Model Dawn Holland October 211 Project LINK Meeting on the World Economy National Institute of Economic and Social Research
More informationCorrigendum. Page 41, Table 1.A1.1. Details of pension reforms, September 2013-September 2015 : Columns on Portugal should read as follows:
Pensions at a Glance: OECD and G Indicators DOI: http://dx.doi.org/.787/pension_glance-5-en ISBN 9789644636 (print) ISBN 97896444443 (PDF) OECD 5 Corrigendum Page 4, Table.A.. Details of pension reforms,
More informationSession 11. Fiscal Policy
Session 11. Fiscal Policy Government size Budget balances Fiscal Policy over the business cycle Debt and sustainability Understanding Fiscal Policy: Government size Government size varies across countries.
More informationNero Meeting: Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department. 21 June 2013
Nero Meeting: The structural reform agenda to boost longterm growth and its side-effects on nearterm activity and other objectives Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department 21 June 2013 Benchmarking exercise
More informationWHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM?
WHAT INVESTMENT RETURNS CAN WE EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO SUPPORT IN THE LONG-TERM? Jean-Pierre Aubry, Associate Fellow, CIRANO Annual conference of the Canadian Economic Association HEC, Montréal, May 30th
More informationAn interim assessment
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 8 September 2011 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary-General Activity has come close
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Cyprus Severe
More informationPORTUGAL E O CAMINHO PARA O FUTURO: A BANCA E O SEU PAPEL
XV CONFERÊNCIA A CRISE EUROPEIA E AS REFORMAS NECESSÁRIAS PORTUGAL E O CAMINHO PARA O FUTURO: A BANCA E O SEU PAPEL FERNANDO FARIA DE OLIVEIRA AGENDA European Context: From the Actual Crisis to Growth
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Angel Gurría Secretary-General The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) IMF
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationFoundation for Fiscal Studies Dublin, 25 May OECD Economic Outlook On the Road to Durable Recovery? Patrick Lenain OECD
Foundation for Fiscal Studies Dublin, 25 May 2011 OECD Economic Outlook 2011-12 On the Road to Durable Recovery? Patrick Lenain OECD A Durable Recovery in the OECD? Key features of OECD projections for
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationProgress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction)
Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction) Source: OECD May 2014 Forecast, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and
More informationApril 2015 Fiscal Monitor
International Monetary Fund April 17, 2015 April 2015 Fiscal Monitor Now is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth Xavier Debrun Deputy Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, Fiscal Affairs Department
More informationShort-term momentum: Will it be sustained?
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Projections published:20 Sept Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? David TURNER Project LINK Meeting, UNCTAD in Geneva Oct 3-5, 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationG20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February February, Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment.
G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February 24-25 February, 2012 Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment Note by the OECD Structural reform is an essential ingredient to achieve sustainable
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationThe euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective
The euro area in a globalized economy: An ESM perspective Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist, Member of the Management Board 3 rd Annual BBVA European Debt Conference New York, 4 October 217 The euro area:
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationThe European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationPMI and economic outlook
PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every
More informationLeading Economic indicators
Leading Economic indicators updated September 1, 2015 GDP by Quarter -Trends in major european areas Fonte Eurostat, August 2015 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,2 3o 13 4 1o 14 2 3 4 1o 15 2 EU18 0,1 0,2 0,3
More information