Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011

Transcription

1 Executive Board meeting December

2 EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced requirements for collateral from banks in liquidity operations. EU summit main elements of the agreement Stricter budgetary control, maximum deficit of. per cent of GDP. Automatic sanctions EFSF: EUR billion. Earlier establishment EUR billion in loans to IMF

3 Projected GDP growth for Norway s trading partners ) Quarterly growth. Per cent. Q Q - - MPR / GDP growth ) Figure for the largest trading partners, weighted by export share Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

4 Expected fall in euro area GDP in Q GDP growth and PMI manufacturing. 7 ) GDP growth (left-hand scale) EuroCOIN GDP projections (left-hand scale) - - PMI manufacturing (right-hand scale) ) GDP growth figures to Q. EuroCOIN GDP projections to Q. Quarterly figures. PMI figures to November. Monthly figures Source: Thomson Reuters

5 Growth projections Per cent 8 Projections MPR / OECD Nomura JPMorgan 8 - Trading partners Euro area US China - Sources: OECD, Nomura, J.P. Morgan and Norges Bank

6 Yields on -year government bonds in euro area periphery Per cent. January December 8 Ireland Spain Portugal Italy 8 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters

7 Yields on -year government bonds Per cent. January December Germany France United Kingdom Sweden US Belgium Austria Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters 7

8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Government debt maturity for euro area countries in In EUR billions Italy Spain France Interest Maturity Interest Maturity Interest Maturity Source: Bloomberg 8

9 Key rates and estimated forward rates ) Per cent. July 8 December ) US MPR / Euro area³) December UK Jul-8 Jul-9 Jul- Jul- Jul- Jul- Jul- ) Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily figures from July 8 and quarterly figures as at December ) EONIA Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 9

10 Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-) ) Daily (historical) and quarterly figures (projected) ). October July Average so far Q: MPR / Q: 88 Q: 88 Q: 88, Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate ) Projections Q Q from MPR / 9 Source: Norges Bank

11 EUR/NOK and outcome range for krone exchange rate January December 9 8. September September December Jan- Sep- May- Jan- Sep- ) Based on prices for currency options at December Source: Bloomberg

12 CDS premiums Itraxx Senior Financials ) and Nordic Banks. Percentage points. Daily figures. January 7 December.... itraxx Danske Bank DNB Nordea ) large European financial institutions Source: Bloomberg

13 Difference between -month money market rate and expected key rate. ) Percentage points. January December Projections MPR / Actual difference Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan ) Norges Bank's projections from Q Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

14 Banks funding costs June 9 December Yields on covered bonds and residential mortgage rates Yields on senior bank bonds and lending rates to enterprises Lending rate new residential mortgages Yield on -year covered bonds Average lending rate, enterprises Yield on -year bank bonds Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun- Dec- Jun- Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun- Dec- Jun- Sources : Norsk Familieøkonomi AS, DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

15 Average credit spreads and issued volume of bank bonds and covered bonds Per cent. NOK billions. Norwegian bank bonds Spread, smaller banks with high rating (right-hand scale) Spread, DNB Bank (right-hand scale). Covered bonds Indicative spreads (right-hand scale)... Foreign currency (converted to NOK) (left-hand scale) Jan- Nov NOK (left-hand scale) Jan- Nov Jan- Nov Jan- Nov Sources: Stamdata, Bloomberg, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

16 GDP mainland Norway and Norges Bank s regional network s indicator of production growth ) Quarterly change. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. Q Q ) Regional network GDP growth Projections MPR / Market expectation ) Change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. ) Most recent observation from the regional network is from November. Most recent observation for GDP is Q. Projections for GDP are from MPR / and are not adjusted after the main revision of quarterly national accounts. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

17 Consumer prices -month change. Per cent. January 8 June ) CPI CPI-ATE ²) CPIXE ³) 8 9 ) Projections (broken lines) from MPR / ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 7

18 Summary. Weaker growth prospects abroad. Greater uncertainty in financial markets. Money and funding market constraints. Expected key expectations have decreased Stable krone exchange rate. Banks financing has become more expensive and less accessible. Reduced growth prospects for the Norwegian economy 7. Inflation somewhat lower than previously projected 8