Euro-QE at the end of the road for now
|
|
- Richard Grant
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Euro Area Recovery Monitor Thursday, January 24, 219 Euro-QE at the end of the road for now ( billions) 2,5 2, Private sector ,5 1, 5 Securities Markets Programme Covered bonds Covered bonds Asset Backed Securities Covered bonds Public sector 2, Total Public Sector Purchase Program 2,11.2 Weighted average maturity 7.37 years Source: ECB, TrendMacro calculations Copyright 219 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy.
2 Banking system dependency: borrowing from the ECB ( billions) Total LTRO Spain Italy Portugal Ireland Greece France Germany Other 1,2 1, Source: ECB, National central banks, TrendMacro calculations Bank stability: 9-day LIBOR/OIS spreads USD EUR 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1% -- Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19.5%
3 The credit drought: loans to non-financial businesses (YOY growth) Loans to 1 year Loans 1-5 years Loans 5 years plus Total 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% Source: ECB, TrendMacro calculations Supply and demand for lending: ECB Bank Survey Net number of banks reporting for: Enterprises Home mortgage Consumer Loan standards tightening Loan demand increasing Expected loan demand increasing Source: ECB, TrendMacro calculations 3
4 -11.6% -9.9% -3.6% -4.8% -4.1% -2.9% -4.9% -2.1% +.1% +3.9% +3.4% +2.5% +.4% +7.9% +5.5% +8.4% Sovereign stress monitor: 1-year bond spreads High Low Last 2 to present Trailing 12m Germany Spread to US High.74% Dec '8 High -1.97% Feb 5 Last -2.52% Low -2.76% Oct '18 Low -2.79% Nov 6 France Spread to Germany High 1.32% Dec '11 High.51% Jan 8 Last.41% Low -.1% Jan '5 Low.21% Apr 23 Italy Spread to Germany High 5.28% Dec '11 High 3.27% Oct 18 Last 2.53% Low.9% Nov '4 Low 1.14% Apr 24 Spain Spread to Germany High 5.52% Aug '12 High 1.36% May 29 Last 1.9% Low -.5% Nov '4 Low.67% Apr 4 Greece Spread to Germany High 33.13% Dec '11 High 4.54% May 29 Last 3.95% Low.9% Jan '5 Low 2.91% Feb 2 Portugal Spread to Germany High 14.61% Jan '12 High 1.93% May 29 Last 1.49% Low -.54% Jun '6 Low 1.5% Apr 24 Ireland Spread to Germany High 8.67% Jun '11 High.78% Jan 11 Last.74% Low -.67% Jun '7 Low.37% Feb 8 1-year sovereign bond total returns, trailing 12-months EUR USD Germany France Italy Spain Greece Portugal Ireland US 4
5 Labor market in intensive care ULC: Nominal, quarterly YOY UE: High : monthly improvement or worsening in rate of change 2 to present Unit labor costs Unemployment Youth unemployment Euro Area +2.5% 7.9% 16.9% Germany +2.7% 3.3% 6.1% France +2.3% 8.9% 21.8% Italy +2.5% 1.5% 31.6% Spain +2.8% 14.7% 34.1% Greece 18.6% 38.5% Portugal +1.5% 6.6% 19.4% Ireland +2.2% 5.3% 12.2% Source: Eurostat, TrendMacro calculations 5
6 Purchasing Manager Indices Manufacturing Last Prev 13-month history Services Last Prev 13-month history Eurozone Dec Eurozone Dec UK Dec UK Dec Germany Dec Germany Dec France Dec France Dec Italy Dec Italy Dec Spain Dec Spain Dec Ireland Dec Ireland Dec Netherlands Dec Austria Dec Greece Dec Czech Rep Dec Source: Markit, TrendMacro calculations Regional currency flight Euro vs Swiss franc Swiss National Bank floor SNB FX reserves
7 Europe +1.6% +1.% +1.1% +.6% Germany +1.7% +1.4% Italy +1.2% +.5% France +1.9% Spain +1.2% +1.1% Greece +.6% +.7% Portugal +.6% +.5% Ireland +.8% +.5% Euro area consumer inflation, year on year Country: Headline Ex-food and energy Ex-energy Euro area: Headline Energy Ex-energy 2% 15% 1% 5% -- -5% -1% -15% Source: Eurosat, TrendMacro calculations Draghi's dashboard: swap-implied inflation expectations since Whatever it takes 5-year inflation-swap rate, 5 years forward +2.5% +2.3% +2.1% +1.9% +1.7% +1.5% +1.3% +1.1% Jul 212 Jul 213 Jul 214 Jul 215 Jul 216 Jul 217 Jul 218 7
The ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationEuro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationChart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Thursday, July
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Wednesday, November
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Thursday, October
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Friday, July 14,
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, August 3, 2018 Today's jobs data: what you need
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Friday, October
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Friday, August
More informationThe Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus
The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, January 4, 2019 Today's jobs data: what you
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, September 7, 2018 Today's jobs data: what you
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, December 7, 2018 Today's jobs data: what you
More informationEconomic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department
Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Wednesday, December
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Wednesday, February
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Friday, January
More informationToday's CPI data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index Wednesday, April
More informationSome Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
More informationMacroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
More informationThe European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
More informationChallenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response. Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank
Challenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank Institut d études politiques, Paris 2 September 212 1 Prime conduit of monetary
More informationEU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS
DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT ON BUDGETARY AFFAIRS EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS 1999-2009 October 2010 INDEX Foreward 3 Table 1. EU and National budgets 1999-2009; EU-27
More informationMarket Briefing: European Interest Rates
Market Briefing: European Interest Rates September, 7 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-7 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson -- djohnson@ Mali Quintana -- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the
More informationThe ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the European
More informationNon-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017)
Non-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017) Gillian Phelan Outline Monetary policy action Interest rate policy Non-standard measures Monetary policy
More informationAuditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund. Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY
Auditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY AUDIT & ASSURANCE SEPTEMBER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS This survey demonstrates divergence across
More information2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
More informationJanuary 2010 Euro area unemployment rate at 9.9% EU27 at 9.5%
STAT//29 1 March 20 January 20 Euro area unemployment rate at 9.9% EU27 at 9.5% The euro area 1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted 2 unemployment rate 3 was 9.9% in January 20, the same as in December 2009 4.
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationData Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Thursday, August 24, 2017
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Thursday, August 24, 2017 Global
More informationFirst estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 bn euro bn euro deficit for EU27
27/2012-15 February 2012 First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 152.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationSecond estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services
STAT/09/12 22 January 2009 Second estimate for the third quarter of 20 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions1, the EU272 external
More informationSovereign Rating Calendar 2019
Creditreform Rating AG Sovereign Rating Calendar 2019 Neuss, December 2018 Creditreform Rating AG Hellersbergstrasse 11 D 41460 Neuss www.creditreform-rating.de Table of contents INTRODUCTION... 2 RATING
More informationJanuary 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.2 bn euro 14.0 bn euro deficit for EU25
42/2005-23 March 2005 January 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.2 14.0 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in January 2005 was a 2.2 billion euro
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationThe currency market just got a lot bigger!
The currency market just got a lot bigger! Thomas Fischer MBA 38 years in financial services Currency trader 1978-2000 Jyske Bank/JGAM 2000-2013 Editor Currency Cross Trader Consultant ENR Asset Management
More informationSEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana Real economy highlights Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Monday, January 7, 2019 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist NOTE: In
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing April 3, 212 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Figure 1. SPANISH CREDIT INSTITUTIONS * EXPOSURE
More informationEU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS. Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC
EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC CONTENTS EU-28 Paper and Board: Consumption and Production EU-28 Recovered Paper: Effective Consumption and Collection EU-28 -
More informationCommunication on the future of the CAP
Communication on the future of the CAP The CAP towards 2020: meeting the food, natural resources and territorial challenges of the future Tassos Haniotis, Director Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives
More informationOctober 2010 Euro area unemployment rate at 10.1% EU27 at 9.6%
STAT//180 30 November 20 October 20 Euro area unemployment rate at.1% EU27 at 9.6% The euro area 1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted 2 unemployment rate 3 was.1% in October 20, compared with.0% in September 4.
More informationItaly s Eurozone Trap
Italy s Eurozone Trap Ashoka Mody Based on EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts, New York: Oxford University Press, June 2018. Italy needed and needs the crutch of a depreciating currency to offset its abysmal
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Monday, June 19, 2017 Global leader-board:
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Monday, October 30, 2017 Global
More informationJanuary 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 bn euro 13.0 bn euro deficit for EU28
STAT/14/41 18 March 2014 January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 13.0 deficit for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Monday, June 18, 2018 Global leader-board:
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Monday, May 7, 2018 Global leader-board:
More informationMay 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 bn euro 3.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
108/2012-16 July 2012 May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 3.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More informationAugust 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 bn euro 12.6 bn euro deficit for EU27
146/2012-16 October 2012 August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 12.6 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationJune 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28
127/2014-18 August 2014 June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Monday, November 5, 2018 NOTE:
More informationJune 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 bn euro 0.4 bn euro surplus for EU27
121/2012-17 August 2012 June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 0.4 surplus for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments The overall macroeconomic environment remains very challenging for the European insurance and pension sector. The yields have been further compressed and are substantially below the
More informationAugust 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.6 bn euro 14.2 bn euro deficit for EU25
STAT/05/132 20 October 2005 August 2005 Euro-zone external trade deficit 2.6 14.2 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in August 2005 was a 2.6 billion euro
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE 198 26 Employed/Working age population (15 64 years 8 % Finland 75 EU 15 EU 25 7 65 6 55 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4** 6** 14.4.25/SAK /TL Source: European Commission 1 UNEMPLOYMENT
More informationDomestic Debt Market Development in Poland Marek Szczerbak Republic of Poland Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department
Domestic Debt Market Development in Poland Marek Szczerbak Republic of Poland Ministry of Finance Public Debt Department DMF Stakeholders Forum 2011 Berne, 8-9 June 2011 1 I. Historical perspective 2 Developing
More informationMarch 2005 Euro-zone external trade surplus 4.2 bn euro 6.5 bn euro deficit for EU25
STAT/05/67 24 May 2005 March 2005 Euro-zone external trade surplus 4.2 6.5 deficit for EU25 The first estimate for euro-zone 1 trade with the rest of the world in March 2005 was a 4.2 billion euro surplus,
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationPRACTICAL ASPECTS AND DILEMMAS OF MEDIUM TERM FISCAL PLANNING - CASE OF SLOVENIA. Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved.
PRACTICAL ASPECTS AND DILEMMAS OF MEDIUM TERM FISCAL PLANNING - CASE OF SLOVENIA Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved. Saša Jazbec, Ministry of Finance Republic of Slovenia MARCH 2018 Agenda
More informationUS, by style US, by style US, by style US, by style
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Wednesday, December 12, 2017 Global
More informationYouth Integration into the labour market Barcelona, July 2011 Jan Hendeliowitz Director, Employment Region Copenhagen & Zealand Ministry of
Youth Integration into the labour market Barcelona, July 2011 Jan Hendeliowitz Director, Employment Region Copenhagen & Zealand Ministry of Employment, Denmark Chair of the OECD-LEED Directing Committee
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationEUROZONE BANKS AND CAPITAL FLOW REVERSAL
EUROZONE BANKS AND CAPITAL FLOW REVERSAL Ashoka Mody Research Department International Monetary Fund European Crisis: Historical Parallels and Economic Lessons Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationEMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationInflation and deflation risks: How to recognise them? How to avoid them?
Inflation and deflation risks: How to recognise them? How to avoid them? Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank XXI Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar
More informationExecutive Board meeting. 14 December 2011
Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced
More informationECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. May 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary
More informationThe Greek Bond Market in 2007
The Greek Bond Market in 2007 15 YEAR BENCHMARK ISSUE MAY 2007 MARKET ANALYSIS +30 210 326 2070, marketanalysis@alpha.gr Financial Markets Group Planning Department Please refer to important Disclaimer
More informationMonthly Report. May ,61
NAV MAY 2017 1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS SINCE INCEPTION Global Allocation Fund* 111,34 0,39% 5,61% 7,76% 21,42% 207,69% 193,4 350.000 Performance of 100.000 March 31, 2006 to May 31, 2017 300.000 Global Allocation
More informationComposition of capital IT044 IT044 POWSZECHNAIT044 UNIONE DI BANCHE ITALIANE SCPA (UBI BANCA)
Composition of capital POWSZECHNA (in million Euro) Capital position CRD3 rules A) Common equity before deductions (Original own funds without hybrid instruments and government support measures other than
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationREPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels,.4.29 COM(28) 86 final/ 2 ANNEXES to 3 ANNEX to the REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE
More informationRakan Mosely Head of Financial Markets Phone: (0)
Rakan Mosely Head of Financial Markets Phone: (0)20 7803 1400 rmosely@oxfordeconomics.com The ECB s TLTROs: bazooka or peashooter? Ben May Senior Eurozone Economist bmay@oxfordeconomics.com June 2014 Outline
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationJanuary 2009 Euro area external trade deficit 10.5 bn euro 26.3 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/09/40 23 March 2009 January 2009 Euro area external trade deficit 10.5 26.3 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in January 2009
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationCosts and benefits of "leaning against the wind": an illustration
Costs and benefits of "leaning against the wind": an illustration Net marginal costs of leaning against the wind : Monetary policy vs. macroprudential policy (Cumulative impact after 4 quarters; in percentage
More informationNOTE. for the Interparliamentary Meeting of the Committee on Budgets
NOTE for the Interparliamentary Meeting of the Committee on Budgets THE ROLE OF THE EU BUDGET TO SUPPORT MEMBER STATES IN ACHIEVING THEIR ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AS AGREED WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE EUROPEAN
More informationSecond JCER-OMFIF seminar
Second JCER-OMFIF seminar State of play of ECB monetary policy The problems of shared sovereignty David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF Tokyo, 22 November 217 The ECB s QE next steps Buoyant euro area
More informationGoods -0.24% Services +0.97% Structures +0.34% Nonresidential +0.76% Fixed investment +0.76% Cap goods +0.27% Residential unch Int. property +0.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: GDP Friday, April 27, 2018 Today's GDP data: what you need
More informationHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) August 2015
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 MONTENEGRO STATISTICAL OFFICE R E L E A S E Broj: 201 Podgorica, 18 September 2015 When using the data please name the source
More informationGoods +0.53% Services +0.93% Structures -0.15% Nonresidential -0.24% Fixed investment +0.03% Cap goods -0.15% Residential +0.27% Int. property +0.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: GDP Friday, January 29, 2016 Today's GDP data: what you need
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationMonthly Report. September ,36
NAV SEPTEMBER 2017 1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS SINCE INCEPTION Global Allocation Fund* 107,92 6,19% 2,36% 17,61% 24,0 131,95% 184,39% 350.000 Performance of 100.000 March 31, 2006 to September 30, 2017 300.000
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationMeasuring Unemployment Some Key Terms
Measuring Unemployment Some Key Terms Claimant Count (JSA) Labour Force Survey (LFS) The number of people officially claiming unemployment- related benefits must be actively seeking work All those actively
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 24 DECEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationShort-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the
More informationMay 2009 Euro area external trade surplus 1.9 bn euro 6.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
STAT/09/106 17 July 2009 May 2009 Euro area external trade surplus 1.9 6.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA16) trade balance with the rest of the world in May 2009 gave a 1.9
More informationOPPORTUNITIES. 22 March, 2016
OPPORTUNITIES 22 March, 2016 Economic Climate Regional Turbulence Economic Uncertainty Sanctions 2 GREECE ECONIMIC OVERVIEW & INDICES Political and economical uncertainty Constant reduction on available
More informationAnnual Report Statistical Appendix. Rome, 31 May nd. Financial Year nd financial year
Annual Report Rome, 31 May 2016 2015 122 nd financial year Financial Year 122 nd Annual Report 2015 122 nd Financial Year Rome, 31 May 2016 Banca d Italia, 2016 Address Via Nazionale, 91 00184 Rome - Italy
More information