TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
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1 TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218
2 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years Nominal GDP (bn USD) Real GDP Growth (Index: 22=1) Avg. GDP Growth (23-17),8% Poland 3,9% Romania 3,9% Czechia 2,9% Hungary 1,9% Per capita GDP (usd) Avg. Real GDP Growth (%) 6,6 4,3 3, Source: Turkstat, CBRT 2
3 Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr Q 26-1Q 27-1Q 28-1Q 29-1Q 21-1Q 211-1Q 212-1Q 213-1Q 214-1Q 21-1Q 216-1Q 217-1Q 218-1Q Turkish economy recovered rapidly by V-shape growth 6 PMI Manufacturing Index Industrial Production Index (seasonally adjusted, 21 = 1)* 114, , , ,3 4 Consumer Confidence Index Real Sector Confidence Index ,2 7 71, , ,7 9 * Monthly data is averaged for each quarter. Latest figure: February 18 Source: Turkstat, CBRT, Bloomberg 3
4 Favourable Demographics: Half of population under age 3 TURKEY , -,3 -,1,1,3, Females Males EUROPE , -,3 -,1,1,3, Males Females Working Age Population (1-64) (Index: 214=1) 7 7 Total Dependency Ratio (%, Age: -14 & >64 / Age: 1-64) Europe Europe Source: Turkstat, Eurostat, UN, 216 4
5 High potential with young population and improving workforce Employment (mio) ~1.k Jan Unemployment rate (%) 2 Labor Participation Rate (%) 6, 1,3 2, 2,8 2,1 2 44, 44,3 44,9 4,7 46, 47,4 47,6 48,3 1 13,1 4 11,1 1,9 1,9 1, 9,9 1,3 1,8 1 9, 9,2 9,1 8,4 9, avg. 688k New job creation in 217 is nearly 1,x of previous 1 year average Jan Source: Turkstat
6 Strong fiscal discipline has been the main pillar of economic policy Budget Deficit (%GDP) 3, Maastricht criterion: 3% 1,3 1,9 1, 1,1 1, 1,1 1, * Latest figure: December 217 Peers' Budget Deficit (%GDP) General Government Debt Stock (%GDP) ,8 86,1 89,4 91,3 91,8 89,9 88,9 86,6 84,2 Eurozone 3 7,3,3 4,8,2 4,9,2 4,2 4,7 3,7 4,1 3, 2,4 2,4 2, 2,9 9, 9, 8, 3,8 4,1 4,4 2,6 2, 1, Brazil S. Africa Poland Maastricht criterion 4,1 36, 32,7 31,4 28,8 27,6 28,3 28, 27, Eurozone Source: Bloomberg, IMF Data Mapper 6
7 Decreasing trade gap with diversified export markets 's Share in World Total Export Exports (% of total) 1,% ,8%,8%,8%,9%,9% 1,% EU Near and Middle Eastern Trade Balance (bn USD) Composition of Imports (%) ,% 27 12,2% ,9% 14,2% ,1% 73,6% * Latest figure: December 217 Source: Bloomberg, Turkstat Total Exports Total Imports Foreign Trade Gap 7
8 Current account deficit is steadily decreasing Current Account Deficit (% GDP) 9, 1,6% 1,4% 's Share in Global FDI Inflows 3, 4,2,7,4,1 1,8,8, 6,7 4,7 3,7 3,8 4,7 1,2% 1,%,8%,6%,4%,2%,4%,7% * Latest figure: Q3, 217,% Portfolio Inflows (12-month cumulative, bn USD) Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (12-month cumulative, bn USD) Equity Security Source: Bloomberg, CBRT 8
9 Central bank is implementing tight monetary policy CBRT INTEREST RATE CORRIDOR (%) 13, CBRT Funding Composition (billion TRY) Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Overnight Lending Rate Overnight Borrowing Rate 1-week REPO Rate CBRT Average Funding Rate - day MA Late Liquidity Window Lending Rate 4 2 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 One Week Repo Late Liquidity Window Overnight Lending Net Open Market Operations The rise in inflation is expected to be temporary Annual CPI (%) Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-1 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18,2, 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4, 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 USD/TRY Basket (. EUR &.USD) EUR/TRY Source: Bloomberg, CBRT 9
10 Argentina Indonesia Mexico Hungary Brazil Czech Rep. Canada Russia China Poland Ireland Austria Netherlands Belgium Spain France USA Germany Italy India UK Japan Portugal Greece Argentina Canada Hungary Mexico Czech Rep. Indonesia Brazil Netherlands China Austria Belgium Poland Japan Russia France Spain Germany Ireland UK Italy India Portugal USA Greece Ireland Indonesia Netherlands UK Germany China France Belgium Austria Brazil Czech Rep. Poland Greece Japan Hungary Argentina Mexico Spain Italy Portugal Canada USA India Russia Greece Italy Portugal Ireland Russia India Spain Hungary Poland Czech Rep. Brazil France Belgium Indonesia Austria Netherlan Mexico Argentina Germany Japan USA UK China Canada Well capitalized, strong banking sector attracts foreign interest Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) (%) Non-performing Loans to Total Gross Loans (NPL) (%) , Return on Assets (ROA) (%) 2,4 2, 2, 1,9 1, 1,1 1,1 1, 1,,8,8,8,7,7,,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3 -, Return on Equity (ROE) (%) Source: IMF FSI Latest Available Data for Each Country 1
11 The banking sector grew as a result of its strong asset quality and was able to maintain high profits 6,4, 3,9 3,6 3,8,6 3,8 2,8 2,9 2,8 2,9 3,2 3,4 3,1 3, Non-Performing Loan Ratio (%) 3. Banking Sector Total Asset (billion TL) Q1 * Latest figure: March ,97 16,6 Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) 17,9 16,3 1,3 1,6 1,6 16,9 16, ,28 Profitability Ratio (%) 14,28 16,4 Target Rate of %12 8 Legal limit of % * Latest figure: March ,16 1, 1,63 Dec-21 Dec-216 Dec-217 Net Income / Average Total Assets (%) Net Income / Average Shareholder's Equity (%) Source: BRSA 11
12 Tourism revenues and number of visitors doubled between Strong recovery has been continuing in 218! # of Visitors vs. Revenues Foreign Arriving Visitors Change (YoY,%)* 34, L12M Revenue (bn. USD) # of tourists (mio) * Latest figure: March 218, Direct Contribution to GDP* (%) 1 Tourism Revenue* 4, 4, 3, * Based on WTTC data Source: Turkstat, WTTC 12
13 Air traffic more than tripled in last 1 years 1, billion people and $24T GDP at 4 hour flight-distance mio 2 Passengers Carried () Domestic International Total Turkish Airlines connects you to 33 destinations in 121 countries Source: Turkstat, Turkish Airlines Investor Presentation 13
14 DISCLAIMER Türk Hava Yolları A.O. (the Company or Turkish Airlines ) has prepared this presentation for the sole purpose of providing information about recent macroeconomic developments in and its business, operations, operational and financial results. The information in this presentation is subject to updating, revision and amendment. This presentation is not, and does not support to be comprehensive and to contain all information related to Turkish economy and Turkish Airlines. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any Turkish securities including Turkish Airlines, its subsidiaries or their respective affiliates nor should it or any part of it or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision in relation thereto. This presentation is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution would be contrary to law or regulation. The information contained in this presentation has not been subject to any independent audit or review and may contain forward-looking statements, estimates and projections. Statements herein, other than statements of historical fact, regarding future events or prospects, are forward-looking statements based on several resources. Although the estimates and projections reflected in the forwardlooking statements are reasonable, it does not mean that they are facts. These estimates or projections may prove materially incorrect, and actual results may materially differ. As a result, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements. Turkish Airlines undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. Any forward-looking statement in this presentation speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and Turkish Airlines undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except to the extent required by law. Information about general economy, industry and market together with forecasts used in this presentation were obtained from several resources, including central banks, statistical institutes, respective banks reports, internal research, publicly available information, industry publications and other market commentaries. The information contained therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the relevant time, but that the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed. Similarly, internal research, market research, industry publications and other publicly available information, while believed to be reliable, have not been independently verified, and Turkish Airlines does not make any representation as to the completeness or accuracy of such information. No representation, warranty or undertaking, expressed or implied, is or will be made by Turkish Airlines or its shareholders, affiliates, advisors or representatives or any other person as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained in this presentation (or whether any information has been omitted from this presentation). Turkish Airlines, to the extent permitted by law, and each of its respective directors, officers, employees, affiliates, advisors or representatives disclaims all liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. This presentation should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, accounting, investment or other advice or a recommendation with respect to any investment. Under no circumstances is this information and material to be construed as a prospectus, supplement, offering memorandum or advertisement, and neither any part of this presentation nor any information or statement contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision. By reading this presentation or attending or listening to any relevant meeting, conference call or webcast organized by the Company, you agree to be bound by the above provisions. 14
15 THANK YOU
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