Financial Stability 1/11. Charts

Transcription

1 Financial Stability 1/11 Charts

2 Chapter 1

3 Chart 1.1 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures Q1 and 11 Q Q1 11 Q1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profit -3 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank

4 Chart 1. Banks 1) volume of lending and loan losses to various industries in 1. ) In billions of NOK and as a percentage of lending to the respective industries 5,89 Lending volume (left-hand scale) Loan losses (right-hand scale),7 1,,8 3,6, 1,16,13,16, Property management Shipping Primary industries 1) All banks in Norway ) Broken line shows average loan loss in the corporate market 3) Shipping is limited to lending to Norwegian shipping companies Source: Norges Bank 3) Trade Manufacturing,

5 Chart 1.3 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio and equity ratio. Per cent. Quarterly figures Q 1 Q 1 1 Equity ratio Tier 1 capital ratio Tier 1 capital ratio without floor ) ) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. Equity ratio prior to 199 is for all banks ) The floor was 95% of Basel I in 7, 9% in 8 and 8% from 9 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

6 Chart 1. Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio. Per cent. Total assets. In billions of NOK. As at 1 Q 5 New Tier 1 capital ratio requirement 5 Tier 1 capital ratio 15 1 New Tier 1 capital ratio requirement + conservation buffer New Tier 1 capital ratio requirement + conservation buffer + maximum countercyclical buffer Total assets (logarithmic scale) 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

7 Chart 1.5 Banks 1) total assets and risk-weighted assets. In billion of NOK. End-of-year figures Total assets Floor effect ) Risk-weighted assets without floor ) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) The floor was 95% of Basel I in 7, 9% in 8 and 8% from 9 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

8 Chart 1.6 OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1) total assets and riskweighted assets. In billions of NOK. End-of-year figures Total assets ) Floor effect Risk-weighted assets without floor ) All residential mortgage companies except Handelsbanken Eiendomskreditt NUF. Nordea Eiendomskreditt is only included in 1 ) The floor was 95% of Basel I in 7, 9% in 8 and 8% from 9 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

9 Chart 1.7 Capital requirements for Norwegian bank groups 1) using IRB models, by area of risk. Share in per cent. As of 1 Q Operational risk 6, Market risk,8 Transitional rule ) 1, Credit risk 8,7 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, SpareBank 1 SMN, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge and Bank 1 Oslo ) Requirement as IRB banks are not yet permitted to reduce capital to Basel II level Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

10 Chart 1.8 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1) deposit-to-loan ratio for customers. Per cent. Monthly figures. January 1987 March Banks 11 1 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

11 Chart 1.9 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 1) weighted residual maturity of gross market funding. In years. Quarterly figures. Q1 11 Q1 3,5 Banks 3,5 3,,5 Banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies 3,,5,, 1,5 1,5 1, 1,,5,5,, ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. Break in series in 9 Q as a result of more closely defined intervals Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet Source: Norges Bank

12 Chart 1.1 Banks 1) stable funding as a percentage of stable funding requirement (NSFR) and liquid assets as a percentage of required liquid assets (LCR). ) Average for group. 11 Q1 15 LCR NSFR All banks DnB NOR + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets> NOK bn Savings banks Total assets< NOK bn 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. The broken line shows the requirement under NSFR and LCR (Basel III) ) Norges Bank s estimate Source: Norges Bank

13 Chart 1.11 Banks 1) gross short-term market funding as a percentage of total assets. Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q1 11 Q1 3 5 Foreign currency NOK ) All banks excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. The broken line shows the average for the period 11 Source: Norges Bank

14 Chart 1.1 Market shares for the five largest banks 1) in Norway based on total assets. Shares in per cent. Quarterly figures Q1 11 Q1 5 5 Largest Second largest Third largest Fourth largest Fifth largest Merger of DnC and Bergen Bank Merger of DnB and Postbanken Merger of DnB and Gjensidige NOR ) All banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank

15 Chart 1.13 Distribution of banks 1) lending to the retail market, corporate market and foreign enterprises ). Shares in per cent. As of 31 December 1 Manufacturing Primary industries 3,1 3, Trade etc. 3,5 Foreign enterprises 6, Shipping, Other industries 3,1 Retail market (mortgages) 38, Services 7,1 Construction 3,8 Property management, 1) All banks in Norway ) Shipping accounts for a large share of lending to foreign enterprises Source: Norges Bank Retail market (other loans) 7,6

16 Chart 1.1 Share of banks 1) residential mortgage loans transferred to OMF covered bond mortgage companies. Spread across banks ) and share for all banks. Per cent. At year-end Lowest and highest share Median Share for all banks ) All banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies in Norway ) Banks with wholly owned or partly owned OMF covered bond mortgage companies and with total assets in excess of NOK 3bn at end-1 Sources: Norges Bank and banks accounting reports

17 Chart 1.15 Tier 1 capital ratio. Spread across banks and weighted average for all banks. 1) Per cent. At year-end, 6, 8 and 1 5 Lowest and highest value Median bank ) Weighted average ) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) The bank midway between highest and lowest when banks are arranged in order by Tier 1 capital ratio Source: Norges Bank

18 Chart 1.16 GDP mainland Norway and trading partners. Four-quarter growth. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 7 Q1 11 Q 1) 8 GDP mainland Norway 8 6 GDP trading partners Mar. 7 Sep. 7 Mar. 8 Sep. 8 Mar. 9 Sep. 9 Mar. 1 Sep. 1 Mar. 11 Sep. 11 1) Projections for 11 Q1 11 Q Sources: Statistics Norway, OECD, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -6

19 Chart 1.17 Implied volatility 1) derived from equity options. Per cent. Daily figures. January May Europe US ) Market participants expectations as to future fluctuations in equity prices. The broken lines show the average for the period Source: Thomson Reuters

20 Chart 1.18 Commodity prices. The Economist price indices and oil price (Brent Blend). USD. Index, January 3=1. Weekly figures. January 3 May Food Metals Oil (Brent Blend) Source: Thomson Reuters

21 Chart 1.19 Bank lending surveys in US and euro area. Percentage of banks that have tightened credit standards minus percentage of banks that have eased credit standards. Quarterly figures. 3 Q1 11 Q1 1 Households (euro area) 1 8 Households (US) Sources: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) 1

22 Chart 1. Government bond spreads. Compared with German government bonds. 1-year maturity. Percentage points. Daily figures. 1 January 7 11 May Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Belgium Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Source: Thomson Reuters

23 Chart 1.1 Indicative risk premiums on 5-year Norwegian corporate bonds, bank bonds and covered bonds. Spreads against swap rates. Percentage points. Weekly figures. July 7 11 May 11 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5, Small banks with high rating DnB NOR Bank Covered bonds Industrials 1) -,5 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5, -,5 1) Banks with total assets between NOK 5bn and 15bn and rated A by DnB NOR Markets Source: DnB NOR Markets

24 Chart 1. CDS prices. itraxx Senior Financials 1) and Nordic banks. Basis points. Daily figures. 1 January 7 11 May 11 5 itraxx Danske Bank DnB NOR Nordea Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 1) itraxx Senior Financials comprises 5 large European financial institutions Source: Bloomberg

25 Chart 1.3 Spread between 3-month money market rate and market expectations as to the key rate. 1) Percentage points. 5-day moving average. Daily figures. 5 January 7 11 May 11 3 US Norway Euro area Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 1) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS). OIS for Norway estimated by Norges Bank Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 5

26 Chart 1. Bonds and OMF covered bonds issued by Norwegian banks and mortgage companies. In billions of NOK. Annual figures January April 11 3 Bank bonds - NOK 3 5 Bank bonds - foreign currencies OMF covered bonds - NOK 5 OMF covered bonds - foreign currencies Jan - Apr 1 Jan - Apr 11 Sources: Stamdata and Bloomberg 6

27 Chart 1.5 Household debt burden 1) and interest burden ). Per cent. Quarterly figures Q1 1 Q 3) Debt burden (right hand scale) Interest burden (left hand scale) ) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividend for 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 1 ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 1 plus interest expenses 3) Projections for 11 Q1 1 Q Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

28 Chart 1.6 Share of private households 1) with debt burden of more than 5 per cent by debt burden. Per cent. Annual figures Above 9 Between 7 and 9 Between 5 and ) Excluding self-employed Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

29 Chart 1.7 Share of private households 1) with debt burden of more than 5 per cent by age. Per cent. Annual figures Over 6 years years 31-5 years Under 3 years ) Excluding self-employed Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

30 Chart 1.8 House prices deflated by disposable income and the CPI. Indices = 1. Annual figures ) Deflated by disposable income Deflated by CPI ) Broken lines show the average for the period Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, Econ Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

31 Chart 1.9 Dwelling in square metres a private middle-income household 1) can purchase given that loans are restricted to three times gross income. Square metres. Annual figures ) ) Households where the main income earner is between 5 and 65 years ) Price per square metre was NOK 3 3 in 8 Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate agents, ECON Pöyry, Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

32 Chart 1.3 Population growth, rise in number of households and completed dwellings. Annual figures. 1 1) 7 6 Number of completed dwellings Rise in households Rise in population growth (number) ) Estimated rise in number of households Source: Statistics Norway

33 Chart 1.31 Key ratios for enterprises listed on Oslo Børs. 1) Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q 1 Q Return on equity (broken line shows the average for the period 1) Operating margin (broken line shows the average for the period 1) -1 Q Q 5 Q 7 Q 8 Q 1 Q ) Sample consisting of 139 listed non-financial corporations as of 1 Q. Statoil is not included in the sample. Each observation is estimated based on a moving sum for the preceding four quarters. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 33

34 Chart month growth in domestic credit (C) and total debt (C3) to nonfinancial corporations. Mainland Norway. Per cent. Monthly figures. January March C C Source: Statistics Norway

35 Chart 1.33 Debt-servicing capacity 1) for Norwegian private limited companies and the most liquid companies on Oslo Børs. ) Per cent. Quarterly figures for listed companies, annual figures for Norwegian private limited companies Norwegian private limited companies, broken line shows average for (left-hand scale) Listed companies, broken line shows average for (right-hand scale) ) Calculated as profit before tax, write-offs and write-downs as a percentage of interest-bearing debt for Norwegian private limited companies and as operating profit before write-offs and writedowns over the previous four quarters as a percentage of interest-bearing debt for listed companies ) Public administration and oil and gas production are not included in sample of Norwegian limited companies. Financial companies and Statoil are not included in sample of most liquid listed companies. Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

36 Chart 1.3 Global deliveries, orders and scrapping of ships. In millions of deadweight tons. Monthly figures Deliveries (left-hand scale) Scrapping (left-hand scale) Orders (right-hand scale) Jan-apr 11 Source: Clarkson Research Service Ltd

37 1) Transactions over NOK 5m Sources: UNION Gruppen and DnB NOR Næringsmegling Chart 1.35 Sales of commercial property in Norway. 1) In billions of NOK. Annual figures

38 Chart 1.36 Real rental and selling prices for office premises. 1) Semi-annual figures. Indices = 1. June 1986 December Selling price Rental price ) High-standard offices centrally located in Oslo. Broken lines shows the average over the period Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK and Norges Bank

39 Box 1.1

40 Chart 1 Vulnerabilities in the Norwegian banking sector and external sources of risk to the banking sector 1) Funding of banking sector Financial Stability /1 Financial Stability 1/11 Vulnerability in banking sector Structure of banking sector Capital and earnings in banking sector External sources of risk to banking sector Macroeconomic conditions Money and credit markets Households Enterprises 1) A value of, ie. origo, denotes the lowest level of risk or vulnerability. A value of 1 denotes the highest level of risk or vulnerability. Source: Norges Bank

41 Box 1.

42 Chart 1 Credit/GDP in Norway. 1) Level and trend ). Per cent. Quarterly data Q1 1 Q 5 Credit/GDP 5 Trend ) Total credit (C3) for mainland Norway and GDP for mainland Norway as of 1993 Q ) Calculated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with lambda equal to Sources: Statistics Norway, International Monetary Fund and Norges Bank

43 Chart Credit/GDP in Norway. 1) Measured as gap relative to trend ). Percentage points. Quarterly figures Q1 1 Q Suggested thresholds for when the buffer requirement is triggered and when it is at maximum ) Total credit (C3) for mainland Norway and GDP for mainland Norway as of 1993 Q ) Calculated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with lambda equal to Sources: Statistics Norway, International Monetary Fund and Norges Bank

44 Chapter

45 Chart.1 Mainland GDP. Annual volume change. Per cent. Annual figures ) 6 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

46 Chart. House prices. Year-on-year rise. Per cent. Annual figures ) Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate Agents, ECON Pöyry, Finn.no, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms and Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

47 Chart.3 Bank lending rate. Per cent. Annual figures ) Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

48 Chart. Problem loans as a percentage of gross lending. Per cent. Annual figures. 1 1) 5 Baseline scenario 5 Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

49 Chart.5 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Baseline scenario. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

50 Chart.6 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Stress scenario 1. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

51 Chart.7 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Stress scenario. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

52 Chart.8 Weighted growth in credit to enterprises (C3) and households (C). Year-on year growth 1). Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 15 1 Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) ) Change in stock of loans measured at year-end ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -5

53 Chart.9 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio in stress scenarios. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) Baseline scenario Stress scenario 1 Stress scenario (sharper fall in house prices) Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio ) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

54 Chart.1 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratios in stress scenario. Banks are ranked by Tier 1 capital ratio. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) Median 3) Highest and lowest value Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio ) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Projections for ) Median is defined here as the middle bank in a list where half the banks have a lower Tier 1 capital ratio than the median bank Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

55 Box.1

56 Chart 1 Banks 1) post-tax profits in baseline scenarios. Percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures ,5 1, Historical figures Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 1,5 1,,5,5, ) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank,

57 Chart Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures FS /1 1 1 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits ) -3 1) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Baseline scenario in FS /1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

58 Chart 3 Banks 1) loan losses in baseline scenarios. Percentage of gross lending. Annual figures ,,5 Historical figures Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 1,,5,, -,5 -,5-1, ) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -1,

59 Chart Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratios in baseline scenarios. Per cent. Annual figures Historical figures Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio ) DnB NOR Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

60 Box.

61 Table 1: Liquid assets in the LCR Level 1 assets: Cash Central bank reserves Securities issued by sovereigns, central banks and other PSEs assigned a % risk weight under the Basel II Standardised Approach Non-% risk-weighted sovereign or central bank debt securities, with certain restrictions Level assets: Securities issued by sovereigns, central banks and other PSEs assigned a % risk weight under the Basel II Standardised Approach Corporate bonds and covered bonds with a credit rating of at least AA-