Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessement 1/13. Charts

Transcription

1 Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessement / Charts

2 Chart. GDP trading partners in MPR / and /. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q MPR / MPR / 8 9 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

3 Chart. Money market rates for trading partners ) in MPR / and /. Percent. 8 Q Q MPR / MPR / 8 9 ) Broken red and blue lines show estimated forward rates for trading partners as at October and 8 March. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates Source: Norges Bank

4 Chart. Import weighted exchange rate index (I ). ) January 8 June I Projection MPR / Projection MPR / 9 Jan 8Jul 8Jan 9Jul 9Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

5 Chart. Mortgage lending rates ) and interest margins. Percent. January 8 March Key policy rate Premium in the money market Risk premium on year covered bonds Residential mortgage rate (credit lines) Estimated cost of mortgage financing ) Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan ) The lending rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway ) Estimated using weighted interest rate on holdings of covered bonds and weighted deposit rate Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

6 Chart. Projected output gap ) in MPR / and /. Percent. 8 Q Q MPR / MPR / 8 9 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP mainland Norway and projected potential GDP mainland Norway Source: Norges Bank

7 Chart. Consumer prices. month change. Percent. January Febuary CPI % trimmed mean CPI ATE ) CPIXE ) CPIM ) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 ) Model based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic Commentaries / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.

8 Chart.7 Inflation. Moving year average ) and variation ) in CPI. Percent. 98 Variation Inflation target CPI ) The moving average is calculated years back ) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/ one standard deviation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

9 Chart.8 Expected consumer price inflation and years ahead. ) Percent. Q Q Expected inflation years ahead Expected inflation years ahead ) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists in the financial industry and academia Sources: TNS Gallup and Opinion Perduco

10 Chart.9 CPI ATE ) by supplier sector. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q CPI ATE Norwegian produced goods and services excluding house rent Imported consumer goods House rent 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Chart.a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

12 Chart.b Projected output gap ) in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% 8 9 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank

13 Chart.c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% 8 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

14 Chart.d Projected CPIXE ) in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q % % 7% 9% 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank

15 Chart. Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Percent. January 8 December /7 /8/8 MPR / MPR / MPR / 7 /8 / 7 Dec 8 / // / /9 /9 /9 / / // / 8 Source: Norges Bank

16 Chart. Three month money market rates in the baseline scenario ) and estimated forward rates ). Percent. 8 Q Q 8 7 Estimated forward rates MPR / Estimated forward rates MPR / Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR / Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR / ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market. ) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue and red bands show the highest and lowest forward rates in the period October October and February 8 March Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

17 Chart. Projected key policy rate, three month money market rate and lending rates on household loans ). Percent. 8 Q Q Key policy rate month money market rate Lending rate, households ) Average lending rate from banks and mortgage companies on all household loans Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

18 Chart. Three month money market rate differential between Norway ) and trading partners and the import weighted exchange rate index (I ) ). January December ) I (left hand scale) month rate differential (right hand scale) 7 9 ) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate ) Monthly figures from January and Norges Bank projections from Q Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

19 Chart. Projected inflation ) and output gap in the baseline scenario. Percent. 8 Q Q Output gap (left hand scale) CPIXE (right hand scale) 8 9 ) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank

20 Chart. Credit growth ) and house prices. month change. Percent. January December ) House prices Credit growth 8 ) From January the Norwegian standard for institutional sector grouping was changed. For credit growth this implies a break in the series from March ) House prices up to and including Febuary, credit growth up to and including January. Projections to Q, where debt growth is change in inventory and house prices is year on year rise Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank

21 Chart.7 Household debt burden ) and interest burden ). Percent. Quarterly figures. 988 Q Q 8 Interest burden (left hand scale) Debt burden (right hand scale) ) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for plus interest expenses Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

22 Chart.8 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario and strategy interval with probability distribution. Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

23 Chart.9 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules. ) Percent. 8 Q Q Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Rule with foreign interest rates Growth rule Model robust interest rate rule Taylor rule ) The calculations are based on Norges Bank s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices and month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in month money market rates Source: Norges Bank

24 Chart. Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank s average pattern of interest rate setting. ) Percent. Q Q percent confidence interval Key policy rate in baseline scenario ) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 999 Q Q. See Staff Memo /8 for further discussion Source: Norges Bank

25 Chart.a Key policy rate. Percent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

26 Chart.b Output gap. Percent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 9 Source: Norges Bank

27 Chart.c CPIXE ). Four quarter change. Percent. 8 Q Q Criterion Criteria & Criteria,& 8 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 8, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 Source: Norges Bank

28 Chart. Key policy rate in a technical model based interest rate forecast and the baseline scenario in MPR / (black line). Percent. 8 Q Q Source: Norges Bank

29 Chart. Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / with probability distribution and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR / (red line). Percent. 8 Q Q 7 % % 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

30 Chart. Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR /. Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. Q Q Change in the interest rate forecast Capacity utilisation Lending margins Prices and costs Growth abroad Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Norges Bank

31 Chart. Total credit ) mainland Norway as a percentage of GDP mainland Norway. Percent.97 Q - Q Crises Average (97 Q Q) Credit/GDP Trend²) ) The sum of C non-financial corporations in mainland Norway (total economy before 99) and C households ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

32 Chart. House prices ) as a percentage of disposable income ). Indexed. 998 Q =. 978 Q Q Crises Average (97 Q Q) House prices/disposable income Trend³) ) Quarterly figures before 99 are calculated with linear interpolation of annual figures ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank

33 Chart. Real commercial property prices ). Indexed. 998 =. Semi-annual data. 98 Crises Average (98 Q Q) Real commercial property prices Trend²) ) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by a GDP deflator for mainland Norway ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway

34 Chart. Banks' ) wholesale funding as a percentage of total assets ). Percent. 97 Q Q Crises Average (97 Q Q) Wholesale funding/total assets Trend³) ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks ) Quarterly figures before 989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Source: Norges Bank

35 Chart. Total private credit/gdp mainland Norway. Decomposed. Percent. 97 Q Q Foreign debt in non-financial enterprises Domestic debt in non-financial enterprises (C) Debt households (C) Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

36 Chart. Debt of households and non-financial enterprises and mainland GDP. -quarter growth. Percent. 97 Q - Q GDP-growth mainland Norway Growth in debt, households (C) Growth in total debt, non-financial enterprises (C)¹) ) The sum of C non-financial enterprises and foreign debt of non-financial enterprises. Mainland Norway Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

37 Chart.7 Household debt burden ). Percent. 978 Q Q - Growth in disposable income Growth in houshold debt Debt burden, right axis ) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

38 Chart.8 Real house prices )). Indexed. 998 Q =. 97 Q Q Crises Real house prices Trend³) ) Quarterly figures before 99 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures ) Deflated by CPI ) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank

39 Chart.9 House prices by region. -month change. Percent. Monthly data. January February Oslo Rogaland Hordaland Trøndelag Agder Hedmark Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Pöyry, Finn.no and Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening

40 Chart. House prices in selected countries. Indexed. 99 Q =. Quarterly data. 99 Q Q Norway Sweden Denmark UK Netherlands Spain Source: Thomson Reuters

41 Chart. House prices ) and disposable income ). -quarter growth. Percent. 978 Q Q Growth in disposable income Growth in house prices ) Quarterly figures before 99 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures ) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for and redemption/reduction of equity capital for Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank

42 Chart. Non-residential building starts. Adjusted for seasonal and irregular components. m Source: Statistics Norway

43 Chart. Rental prices for office premises. NOK per square metre (at constant prices). Semi-annual figures. 98, Oslo (central part, prestige segment) Oslo (central part, high standard),, Oslo (central part, good standard) Stavanger (central part) Kristiansand Tromsø, Bergen Trondheim,,,,,,,, Sources: Statistics Norway, Dagens Næringsliv and OPAK

44 Chart. Banks' ) total assets and wholesale funding ). -quarter growth. Percent. 98 Q Q 8 - Growth in total assets Growth in wholesale funding ) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway ) Quarterly figures before 989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures Source: Norges Bank

45 Chart. Common Equity Tier capital ratio at year-end. Large banking groups ) and all Norwegian banks ). Percent DNB Bank Nordea Bank Norge SpareBank SR-Bank Sparebanken Vest SpareBank SMN SpareBank Nord-Norge All Norwegian banks ) Norwegian banking groups with total assets larger than NOK billion ) For banks that are financial conglomerates, consolidated level data are used. For other banks, solo level data are used Sources: Banking groups' earnings reports, Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank

46 Chart. Global GDP. Weighted to reflect each country's share of global output measured in a common currency (market exchange rates). Annual growth. Percent. 99. Projections from Contribution from emerging economies Contribution from advanced economies Average global growth Sources: IMF and Norges Bank

47 Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Percent. Daily data. January 8 March 8 7 US Germany UK Spain Italy 8 7 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters

48 Chart. Developments in equity markets. Index. January =. January 8 March 8 US (S&P ) Germany (DAX) Spain (IBEX) Italy (FTSE MIB) Emerging economies (MSCI EM) 8 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters

49 Chart. Key rates and estimated forward rates at October and 8 March.¹) Percent. January December ²) US Euro area³) UK Sweden ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at October. Thin lines show forward rates at 8 March. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates ) Daily data from January and quarterly data from Q ) EONIA for the euro area from Q Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

50 Chart. US housing market. Housing starts (in thousands) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index. Monthly data. January January 8 Housing starts (left-hand scale) NAHB (right-hand scale) 7 8 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

51 Chart. Fixed investment in the euro area. Four-quarter change. Percent. Change in corporate credit demand¹). Q - Q - - Corporate credit demand (left-hand scale) Fixed investment (right-hand scale) ) Euro area bank lending survey. Values above zero indicate net increase in credit demand Sources: Thomson Reuters, Eurostat and ECB

52 Chart.7 Unit labour costs. Seasonally adjusted index. Q =. Q Q Greece¹) Spain Portugal Ireland Italy Euro area ) Q =. Four-quarter moving average, not seasonally adjusted Sources: OECD and Norges Bank

53 Chart.8 Unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Monthly data. January January Greece Spain Portugal Ireland Italy 8 Source: Thomson Reuters

54 Chart.9 Retail sales in emerging economies in Asia and in the OECD. Volume. Three-month moving average. -month change. Percent. January December Emerging economies in Asia excluding China¹) China OECD Average ) GDP-weighted (PPP). Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, South-Korea and Taiwan Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank

55 Chart. Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU. Monthly data. January December Coal US Oil Gas UK Gas US Gas Russia Gas Norway Futures prices 7 9 Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

56 Chart. Commodity prices. USD. Index. January =. Daily data. January December 7 Copper Wheat Maize Soya beans Aluminium Futures prices Sources: CME Group, ICE and Thomson Reuters

57 Chart. Developments in the krone exchange rate. Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-) and trade-weighted index (TWI)¹). Daily data. December 98 8 March I- TWI ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

58 Chart. Banks' and mortgage companies' qualitative assessment of access to and premiums on wholesale funding. ) March 8 February Access funding Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr. Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr. Risk premium funding Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr. Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr ) Average reported by banks in Norges Bank's liquidity survey. For short-term funding in forreign currency only banks active in these markets are included. Red indicates reduced access and higher premiums, grey indicates unchanged, green indicates increased access and lower premiums Source: Norges Bank

59 Chart. Estimated average risk premium ) on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banking groups ). Basis points. Monthly average. January February Average risk premium on outstanding covered bonds Risk premium on new covered bonds Average risk premium on outstanding senior bonds Risk premium on new senior bonds ) Difference against -month NIBOR ) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

60 Chart. Deposit rate ) and margin. Percent.. January 8. March.... Money market premium Key policy rate Deposit rate (Statistics Norway).... Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- ) All banks in Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

61 Chart. Banks' ) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Percent. Annual data Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits ) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway, but including branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Solo level Source: Norges Bank

62 Chart.7 Banking groups' ) Common Equity Tier capital ratio. Percent. Total assets. In billions of NOK. At December Common Equity Tier capital ratio IRB banks (with transitional rule) Standardised approach banks Current temporary requirement (EBA requirement) + countercyclical buffer of. pts. Current temporary requirement (EBA requirement) Total assets (logarithmic scale),, ) Banking groups with total assets in excess of NOK bn, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Finanstilsynet, banking groups' earnings reports and Norges Bank

63 Chart.8 Banks' ) liquidity coverage ratio (LCR). ) Consolidated data. Weighted average for the group. At end-quarter Q Q Q Q Q Q All banks DNB + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets > NOK bn Savings banks Total assets < NOK bn ) All banks in Norway excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Calculations are based on the recommendations published by the Basel Committee in Sources: Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank.

64 Chart.9 Deposit-to-loan ratio customers of Norwegian banks and mortgage companies. ) Percent. 8 Q Q 8 Deposit-to-loan ratio Deposit-to-loan ratio excluding foreign financial enterprises ) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank

65 Chart. CPI, CPI-ATE ) and CPIXE ). -month change. Percent. January 9 June ) CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE 9 ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and /9 ) Projections for March June (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

66 Chart. CPI-ATE ). Total and by supplier sector. -month change. Percent. January 9 June ) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services³) ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) Projections for March June (broken lines) ) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -.

67 Chart. Unit labour costs and prices for domestically produced consumer goods and services, excluding rent. Index. =. 9 ULC mainland Norway ULC for sectors that produce consumer goods and services CPI-ATED excluding rent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

68 Chart. Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. ) ) Projections for Source: Norges Bank

69 Chart. CPI-ATE ). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Percent. Q Q ) MPR / % % 7% 9% SAM CPI-ATE Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- ) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products ) System for averaging short-term models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

70 Chart. GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM ) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. Q Q ) 7 % % 7% 9% 7 MPR / SAM GDP mainland Norway Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- ) System for averaging short-term models ) Projections for Q Q (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

71 Chart. GDP mainland Norway ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Percent. Q Q ) Regional network Mainland GDP growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume ) Latest observation in the regional network is January. Latest GDP observation is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

72 Chart.7 Capacity constraints and labour supply ) as reported by Norges Bank's regional network and estimated output gap. Percent. Q - Output gap MPR / (left-hand scale) Capacity constraints (right-hand scale) Labour supply (right-hand scale) ) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply Source: Norges Bank

73 Chart.8 Employment ) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Percent. Q Q ) Regional network Employment growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts ) Latest observation in the Regional network is January. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is Q, projections for Q Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -

74 Chart.9 Annual wage growth ) and LFS unemployment. Percent. 99 ) 8 8 Annual wage growth Unemployment rate ) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions ) Projections for (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

75 Chart. Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent. 99 ) Saving ratio Saving ratio excl. dividend income Net lending ratio, excl. dividend income ) Projections for (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

76 Chart. Total household ) debt and gross financial assets. Average. In thousands of NOK. Debt (average) Gross financial assets (average) % Gross financial assets to debt ratio % % 7 % All²) All in income deciles -9 with net debt³) ) Excluding self-employed ).9m households ).m households ) households Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank All in income deciles -9 with net debt and debt burden to times disposable income⁴)

77 Chart. Household consumption ) and real disposable income ). Annual change. Percent. ) 8 8 Household consumption Household real disposable income 7 9 ) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume ) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations ) Projections for (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

78 Chart. Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households ), and population growth ) Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households (left-hand scale) Population growth (right-hand scale) ) Projections for and ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

79 Chart. Investment as share of GDP mainland Norway. Volume. Percent. 98 ) 8 8 Petroleum investment Business investment Housing investment ) Projections for Source: Statistics Norway

80 Chart. Petroleum investment. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. 99 ) ) Projections for Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

81 Chart. Market value of office premises in Oslo and employment growth ). NOK per square metre (at constant prices) and four-quarter change in percent. Semi-annual and quarterly figures Employment growth (left-hand scale) Market value (right-hand scale) ) Annual figures in the period 98 99, quarterly figures from 99 Q Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway

82 Chart.7 Return on equity ) and total assets ) and equity ratio ). Percent. Annual figures. 999 Return on equity (left-hand scale) Return on total assets (left-hand scale) Equity ratio (right-hand scale) ) Earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation as a percentage of equity ) Earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation as a percentage of total assets ) Sample of limited companies holding interest-bearing debt. Excluding government, banking/insurance and exploitation of natural rescourses Source: Norges Bank

83 Chart.8 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant prices. In billions of NOK. ) 8 8 Structural non-oil deficit Expected real return ) Projections for Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank