Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Transcription

1 Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018

2 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic facts and figures. The presentation is updated regularly. Sources We screen the insights of the most important economic research institutes, think tanks and corporate research units around the world. These include IMF, OECD, WTO, Consensus as well as databases such as Bloomberg and Oxford Economics Real economic indicators > Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2019 a 0.2 percent point decline since the last forecast > Emerging economies are affected by the strength of the US dollar, by geopolitical tensions, and by trade conflicts > Worldwide headline inflation increased, also due to higher oil prices Financial indicators > US tariffs and the trade war with China impact international indices > Fed is further raising interest rates; ECB rate still zero, but expected to rise in 2019 > Government bond yields remain low, CDS indices are back on the rise Other indicators > Ongoing political tensions leave their mark on the world economic climate. Still positive outlook for the eurozone and esp. Germany > Consumer sentiment in US and Germany near all-time highs 2

3 The outlook for the development of the world economy is still solid, but downside risks are on the rise Development of the world economy > Compared to the World Economic Outlook from April 2018, IMF downgraded global growth projections for 2018 and 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 percent. The IMF observed that "among advanced economies, growth disappointed in the euro area and the United Kingdom." > The decline expresses the "negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-september, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging markets and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills." > Considering these facts, the window of opportunity to advance policies and reforms that raise medium term growth is narrowing. The IMF recommends five measures: 1. Foster cooperation 2. Bring inflation to target, build buffers, curb excess imbalances 3. Strengthen the potential for higher and more inclusive growth 4. Build resilience 5. Improve convergence prospects for low-income developing countries Potential risk factors for the world economy > A possible failure of Brexit negotiations or a confrontation between Italy and Brussels over budget deficit > The IMF states that "trade uncertainties [and] financial conditions are tightening for emerging market and developing economies as they adjust to progressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and an impending end of asset purchases by the European Central Bank." > Qualms about bilateral and multilateral economic relations and trade agreements, especially through US actions (or threatened actions) and subsequent responses by its trading partners > Stronger monetary tightening, correction in financial markets, and overshooting sell-off in emerging markets' assets, triggering a pronounced economic slowdown > According to the IMF "the possibility of unpleasant surprises outweighs the likelihood of unforeseen good news." Source: IMF 3

4 Downward adjustment of global growth forecasts, esp. eurozone and emerging economies with significant change in forecasts Real GDP growth [%] World (change in forecast) 1) 2019 (change in forecast) World (-0.2) 3.7 (-0.2) Advanced economies 2) (-0.1) 2.1 (-0.1) US (0.0) 2.5 (-0.2) Eurozone (-0.4) 1.9 (-0.1) Germany (-0.6) 1.9 (-0.1) France (-0.5) 1.6 (-0.4) Italy (-0.3) 1.0 (-0.1) Spain (-0.1) 2.2 (0.0) Japan (-0.1) 0.9 (0.0) Emerging/dev. economies (-0.2) 4.7 (-0.4) China (0.0) 6.2 (-0.2) Russia (0.0) 1.8 (0.3) 1) Change related to previous forecast (May 2018) indicates stability of the forecast; all 2018 and 2019 figures on subsequent slides are forecasts 2) Advanced economies is the term used by the IMF to describe developed countries Source: IMF 4

5 Emerging economies are affected by the strength of the US dollar, by geopolitical tensions, and by trade conflicts Real GDP growth [%] BRICS NEXT-11 2) ASEAN Brazil Bangladesh Indonesia Russia Egypt Malaysia India Iran Philippines China Mexico Thailand South Africa Nigeria Vietnam Weighted avg. 3) Pakistan Weighted avg. 3) South Korea MIST 1) Turkey Weighted avg. 3) Weighted avg. 3) ) MIST countries comprise Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey 2) Except for the Asean-5 countries Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam; however the weighted average includes all countries of the aggregate Next 11, not only the ones displayed 3) Average weighted via GDP in PPP current international dollar Source: IMF 5

6 Possible scenarios for the next phase of Brexit A disorderly Brexit would bring UK's GDP growth down to near zero in 2019 Potential macro impact of different Brexit scenarios on the UK's economy Orderly Brexit (45% 1) ) Disorderly Brexit (35%) Remain in EU (20%) Scenario Variation on Chequers plan (relatively frictionless trade) WTO rules (no transition period, customs controls) Second referendum leading to Remain, or EEA/CU membership Macro view Growth and inflation to remain subdued, as the introduction of new though modest trade barriers hampers investment Stagflation. Investment would fall, trade heavily disrupted (both imports and exports), and inflation would rise on a weaker sterling Investment would rebound strongly, although this will mostly be felt in Inflation stable as stronger demand offset by stronger sterling Growth and inflation (2019) GDP: 1.7%, CPI 2) :1.9% GDP: 0.1%, CPI: 2.6% GDP: 1.9%, CPI: 1.9% Growth and inflation (2020) GDP: 1.9%, CPI: 1.8% GDP: 1.2%, CPI: 2.2% GDP: 2.5%, CPI: 2.0% BoE 3) One rate hike in 2019 and 2020 Policy likely on hold, but depends on supply-demand mix Two rate hikes in 2019 and 2020 Markets (end-2019) Gilts 4) :1.8%, GBP/USD: 1.42 Gilts: 1.0%, GBP/USD: 1.24 Gilts: 2.3%, GBP/USD: ) Probability according to the estimation of ABN AMRO 2) Consumer Price Index 3) Bank of England 4) Bonds issued by the British government Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics 6

7 Advanced economies are further increasing their investments, but still lag behind emerging market levels Total investment [% of GDP] (change in forecast) 1) 2019 (change in forecast) 1) World World (0.2) 26.5 (0.1) Advanced economies US Eurozone Germany (0.5) 22.4 (0.6) (0.9) (0.2) (0.6) (1.0) (0.4) (0.8) France (0.4) 23.6 (0.5) 24.3 Japan (-0.1) 24.6 (-0.1) Emerging/dev. economies (-0.1) 32.8 (-0.2) China Russia (0.0) 43.7 (0.0) (-2.1) 22.6 (-1.2) 1) Change related to previous forecast (May 2018) indicates instability of the forecast Source: IMF 7

8 Output gaps have closed in major advanced economies Germany and the US significantly above the point of most efficient production Output gap [% of potential GDP] 1) Germany United States United Kingdom France -1.8 Japan Comments > The output gap acts as a marker for the difference between the actual level of GDP and its potential level. Negative (positive) values of the output gap indicate that factories and workers operate below (above) their most efficient capacity > Diversity in output gaps is consistent with heterogeneous and subdued core inflation dynamics in different countries > Advanced economies will return to their potential growth rates, well below pre-crisis averages, once their output gaps close. Moreover such a close-down will lead to a normalization of monetary policy ) The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percentage of potential output. Potential output referred to as the production capacity of the economy is the maximum amount of goods and services an economy can turn out when it is most efficient (at full capacity). Estimates of the output gap are subject to significant margins of uncertainty Source: IMF 8

9 Oil price rose sharply Reflecting production collapse in Venezuela, outages in Canada and Libya, and expectation of lower Iran exports Oil price (Brent) [USD/barrel] 1) Forward curve and forecast 2) Highest value Jul Jan Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Nov 2018 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 1) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are the max-/minimum on a daily basis, latest value is end-of-day value of Nov 2nd ) The blue dashed lines indicate a forecast range of highest and lowest values; the black dashed line is the forward curve Source: Bloomberg 9

10 Gold price keeps fluctuating around USD 1,200 due to a weaker US dollar Ongoing upward trend in commodity markets Gold price [USD per ounce] 1) S&P GSCI [index] 1) 2) Highest value Sep , Highest value Jul ,772.1 Lowest value Jan , , , , , , , , , Jan Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Nov 2018 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Nov ) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based, highest and lowest values are on a daily end-of-day basis, latest value is end-of-day value of Nov 1st or 2nd ) S&P GSCI (formerly Goldman Sachs Commodity Index): serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time Source: Bloomberg 10

11 US housing market index reached a new all-time high once more Global Manufacturing Index is still above the neutral 50.0 mark Case Shiller Index [index] 1) 3) JPM Global Manufacturing PMI [index] 2) 3) Highest value Jul Highest value April 2010 and Feb March Lowest value Dec Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Aug 2018 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Sep ) Measure for the US residential housing market 2) JP Morgan's Purchasing Managers' Index is based on surveys covering purchasing executives in 40 countries accounting for an estimated 95% of global manufacturing output; 50 = neutral mark (no change on prior month) values above 50 indicate rising and below falling values 3) All values are end-of-month based Source: Bloomberg 11

12 Worldwide headline inflation is on the rise Inflation in eurozone in line with ECB's aim to keep inflation below, but close to, 2 percent Inflation rate 1) [%] 6.3 World (change in forecast) 2) 2019 (change in forecast) 2) 3.8 (0.3) 3.8 (0.5) Advanced economies (0.0) 1.9 (-0.1) 5.1 World US (-0.1) 2.1 (-0.3) Eurozone (0.2) 1.7 (0.1) Germany (0.2) 1.8 (0.1) France (0.3) 1.8 (0.2) Italy (0.3) 1.4 (0.1) Spain (0.1) 1.8 Japan (0.1) 1.3 (0.2) (0.2) Emerging/dev. economies (-0.1) 4.1 (-0.2) China Russia (-0.3) (0.1) (-0.2) (1.3) 1) Annual change in average consumer prices (headline inflation) 2) Change from previous forecast (May 2018) indicates instability of the forecast Source: IMF 12

13 Unemployment rates are decreasing further, but still huge spread within the eurozone Unemployment rate [%] (change in forecast) 1) 2019 (change in forecast) 1) Advanced economies US (0.0) 5.4 (0.0) 3.8 (-0.1) 3.5 (-0.1) Eurozone Eurozone Germany France Italy (-0.1) 3.4 (-0.2) (-0.1) 8.0 (-0.1) 8.8 (0.1) 8.5 (0.1) 10.8 (-0.1) 10.5 (0.0) 5.8 US Spain 19.6 Japan China Russia (0.1) 14.7 (-0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (-0.2) ) Change from previous forecast (May 2018) indicates instability of the forecast Source: IMF 13

14 Stock markets with sharp sell-offs in October US-tariffs and the US-China trade war had a noticeable impact Dow Jones [index] 1) DAX [index] 1) Shanghai Composite [index] 1) Highest value Oct ,952 Highest value Jan ,597 6,124 Highest value Oct ,521 26, ,482 25, ,008 11,454 11,469 4,612 13,930 12,811 17,720-1,571 8,067 7,376 9,966-2,128 +4,962 3,412 3,235 2,688 3,481 2,603 10,865-4,395 6,470 10,913 Mar ,674-2,085 3,589 5,502 Mar ,162 1,871 Jan ,048 Jan 2006 Nov 2018 Jan 2006 Nov 2018 Jan 2006 Nov ) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are the max-/minimum on a daily basis, latest value is end-of-day value of Nov 1st or 2nd 2018 Source: Bloomberg 14

15 EURO STOXX, Nikkei and CAC 40 also with sharp corrections EURO STOXX [index] 1) Nikkei [index] 1) CAC 40 [index] 1) Highest value Jun ,692 4,573 3,013 +1,433 3,697 3,674 17,249 16,650 3,198 2,865-9,655 Highest value Oct , ,453 16,291 24,448 15,576-2,528 21,920 4,948 6,168 +1,220-3,703 Highest value Jun ,110 +2,628 5,503 5,083 5,093 4,237-2,807 1,765 2,119 Mar ,995 8,928 Oct ,465 3,017 Mar 2009 Jan 2006 Nov 2018 Jan 2006 Nov 2018 Jan 2006 Nov ) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are the max-/minimum on a daily basis, latest value is end-of-day value of Nov 1st or 2nd 2018 Source: Bloomberg 15

16 Fed rates continue their rise, while ECB is expected to begin rebalancing next year EUR has lost ground vs. USD Interest rates [%] 1) Forecast EUR/USD exchange rate [EUR/USD] 1) Forecast 2) Highest value Apr ECB Fed Jan Jan 2006 Nov 2018 Q Jan 2006 Nov 2018 Q ) All values (except highest, lowest and latest) are end-of-month based; highest and lowest values are the max-/minimum on a daily basis, latest value is end-of-day value of Nov 1st ) The blue dashed lines indicate a forecast range of highest and lowest values; the black dashed line is the forward curve Source: Bloomberg 16

17 Government bond yields remain low, the increase in Italy signals the declining trust in its government CDS are on the rise Yields of 10y government bonds [%] 1) Credit default swaps (CDS) [index; 01/11=100] 1) LATEST VALUES 4.2 Greece 3.5 China 3.3 Italy 1.8 Portugal 1.5 Spain 0.7 France 0.4 Germany LATEST VALUES 71 US 66 Eurozone 94 Asia Jan 2008 Jan 2012 Jan 2016 Nov First 36 month LTRO 2) announcement 21 Dec 2011 Jan 2011 Jan 2013 Jan 2015 Jan 2017 Nov ) All values (except latest) are end-of-month based; latest value is for Nov 1st or 2nd ) LTRO: Long Term Refinancing Operations. ECB lends money to eurozone banks at a very low interest rate Source: Bloomberg 17

18 While the EU is well on track to improve its fiscal balance, the US is expected to increase its budget deficit Fiscal balance [% of GDP] 1) Emerging & developing economies 2) Advanced economies 2) Selected advanced economies Selected emerging economies France Germany Greece Ireland Italy 3) Japan Portugal Spain United Kingdom United States EU-28 Eurozone Brazil China India Mexico Russia ) Fiscal balance is represented by the IMF indicator "general government net lending/borrowing" 2) Average of all advanced and emerging & developing countries according to the IMF definition; in line with the following chart (general government gross debt) 3) Italy's new budget plans (October 2018) are not yet considered Source: IMF 18

19 Debt burdens of advanced economies, except for the US, are decreasing slightly Rising level of debt in Brazil and China General government gross debt [% of GDP] 1) Germany Advanced economies 2) economies Greece Ireland Emerging & developing economies 2) Selected advanced Selected emerging economies ) Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor in the future. No financial assets of a state, such as gold, currency reserves, loans and other accounts receivables are deducted 2) Average of all advanced and emerging & developing countries according to the IMF definition 3) Italy's new budget plans (Oct 2018) are not yet considered France Italy 3) Japan Portugal Spain United Kingdom United States EU-28 Eurozone Brazil China India Mexico Russia Source: IMF 19

20 Most EU countries do not meet the former Maastricht criteria of a government debt level of max. 60% of the GDP Public finances 2018 Fiscal balance and general government gross debt [% of GDP] Fiscal balance 3 Former Maastricht criteria: max. 60% Russia Mexico Germany Ireland Eurozone EU-28 France UK Spain Portugal Italy Greece Former Maastricht criteria: max. -3% -4-5 China United States Japan -6-7 India -8-9 Brazil General government gross debt Source: IMF 20

21 Global economic climate and economic climate in the eurozone affected by political tensions Germany shows more resilience World economic climate [balances] 1) Eco. climate Eurozone [balances] 1) Eco. climate Germany [balances] 1) Highest value Q Highest values Q Highest value Nov Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Oct ) Arithmetic mean of judgment about the present and the expected economic situation. As of the first quarter 2017 the Ifo Institute uses "balances" to illustrate the economic climate instead of indices. The balances range between 100 and points Source: Ifo Institute 21

22 Consumer confidence in Germany and the US still close to all-time highs Consumer index Germany 1) [indicator] Consumer sentiment US [index; 1966=100] Highest value Feb Highest value Mar Sep Nov 2008 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Oct 2018 Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Oct ) Indicates change in real private consumption compared to the year before divided by 10; value of 10 indicates consumption growth of 1% Source: GFK, University of Michigan 22

23 Contacts & selected resources for further reading Contacts Further reading IMF Klaus Fuest +49 (211) Christian Krys +49 (211) World Economic Outlook (October 2018) Link OECD Economic outlook and interim economic outlook (September 2018) Link Eurostat Data for short term economic analysis (October 2018) Link 23

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