Eurozone Economic Watch
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1 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018
2 Eurozone: Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown next year are growing Eurozone GDP growth slowed down more than expected in 3Q18, to 0.2% QoQ, with negative surprises in Germany and Italy. Hard data until September suggest that the significant deterioration of net exports might have weighed on growth. Domestic demand remained solid, except in Germany due to the disruption in the auto sector that impacted both investment and consumption. Confidence data in October declined further, mainly in the manufacturing sector. It is still in expansionary territory, but there are increasing concerns about the negative effects of heighted uncertainty on activity. Our MICA-BBVA model projects a slight growth upturn, but at a moderate pace (around 0.3% QoQ in 4Q18 after 0.4% on average in 1H18). This, along with disappointing figures in 3Q18, puts a small downward bias to our GDP growth forecast of 2% in 2018 and 1.7% in Political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and Italian fiscal policy is likely to increase in the remainder of the year. Higher energy prices have kept inflation around 2%, but underlying rates remain at low levels. We continue to expect a gradual upward trend in core inflation in coming months driven by higher input prices and the tightening of the labour market, more evident in some countries.
3 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 3 Sharp slowdown in the Eurozone in 3Q18, partly transitory, but recent data suggest a return to a more moderate growth ahead GDP, contribution by components (%, QoQ) GDP and MICA forecasts (%, QoQ) Private consumption GFCF Net Exports Public consumption Inventories Real GDP CI 20% CI 40% CI 60% Observed Growth slowed down by 0.2pp to 0.2% QoQ in 3Q18. The disaggregation by component is not available yet but the deterioration of net exports might have weighed on growth. Domestic demand should remain solid, except in Germany due to the negative impact of the disruption in the auto sector linked to environmental regulations on both investment and consumption.
4 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Germany France Italy Spain BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 4 Growth has eased across countries, with negative surprises in Germany and Italy GDP and expenditure contribution by country (%QoQ, pp) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% % -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Germany France Italy Spain Diff. GDP relative to 2008 Final Consumption GFCF Inventories Net Exports Diff. GDP level relative to 2008 GDP q/q % change Euro GDP QoQ
5 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 5 PMIs extended their downward trend in October, raising concerns about the negative effect of heighted uncertainty on activity PMI and GDP (level, %QoQ) EC confidence survey (level) PMIs level GDP (% QoQ) Real GDP (%QoQ) Services PMI PMI Manufacturing PMI ESI (lhs) Consumer (rhs) Industrial (rhs) Services (rhs) Despite being higher than their flash estimates, final PMIs in October signal further declines in both the manufacturing and the service sectors. More importantly, leading indicators mainly business confidence and new orders- are reaching multi-year lows, as uncertainty surrounding Brexit talks and US-China trade negotiations could be affecting confidence and investment. Source: Eurostat, European Commission and BBVA Research
6 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 6 The resilience of confidence in the service sector in large EZ countries contrasts with that of manufacturing, except in Italy PMI Survey (level) Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Germany France Italy Spain Composite Confidence PMI levels Manufacturing adjust from PMI high levels, Services PMI reflecting a broad divergence between the manufacturing and the services sector and also mask some differences among countries. Overall, confidence readings are still consistent with a steady quarterly growth in 3Q but provide a weak start of Q4. Source: Markit and BBVA Research
7 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 7 Despite the rebound in August and the modest decline in September, industrial output was flat in 3Q18 Industrial production (Level, % QoQ) IP (level) IP capital equipment, investment in M&E and capacity utilization (%QoQ; %) Inv. M&E; IP Capacity utilization (%) IP (% QoQ) IP (2015=100) GFCF: M&E (%QoQ) Capacity Utilization (%) IP Capital (%QoQ) Industrial output stagnated in 3Q18 as the falls of durable consumer and intermediate goods offset the rebound in capital goods and energy. Uncertainty surrounding auto tariffs and the probability of a hard Brexit are conditioning the investment outlook, while new EU regulations on car emissions have had an impact on the automobile sector, especially in Germany.
8 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 8 Exports disappointed in September, but accelerated slightly in 3Q18 overall. Trade balance ( bn; %GDP) Exports by destination (%YoY; pp) Exports, imports Trade Balance (%GDP) Exports Imports Trade Balance (% GDP) Intra EU United States China Asia Ex. China LatAm RoW Total Exports Exports declined in September (-1,6% m/m), offsetting partly the rebound in August. Global demand support remains, but is moderating, while concerns arise from China s lower demand beyond the negative transitory effect of the change in the regulation of car emissions.
9 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 9 Retail sales stagnated in September. The trend is still solid but has loosened some steam over the past year Retail sales and consumer confidence (%QoQ, level) Retail sales and total wage bill (%YoY; pp) Retail Sales (% QoQ) Consumer Confidence Retail Sales (%QoQ) Consumer Confidence Real compensation Total wage bill Employees Retail sales Retail sales flattened in 3Q18 as a whole, which was expected after the sharp increase in the previous quarter. The improvement in the labour market, the gradual increase in wages and slowing energy prices should continue to underpin private consumption in coming quarters.
10 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 10 The unemployment rate remained broadly unchanged in September Unemployment rate by country (%) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Annual unemployment change by gender and age (millions) % Sep-17 Aug-18 Sep-18 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Women 25-74Y Men 25-74Y Men < 25Y Women < 25Y Total The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.1% in September for a third month in row, interrupting the downward trend over the last five years. Despite significant differences across countries, the tightening of the labour market should result in upward wage pressures in coming quarters.
11 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 11 Higher energy prices could keep inflation around 2% for the rest of the year, but core inflation remains at low levels Inflation contribution of components (%YoY, pp) Core and trimmed-mean inflation (%YoY; pp) Services Processed Food Unprocessed Food Non-energy industrial goods Energy HICP (% y/y) Trimmed mean inflation Core inflation Inflation edged up slightly in October (0.1pp to 2.2% YoY) due to higher energy prices, together with core inflation (+0.1pp to 1.2% YoY), driven by higher prices for services and non-energy industrial goods.
12 oct-18 oct-18 oct-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 12 Headline inflation increased across countries driven by energy prices, but differences in core inflation continue to increase Headline and core inflation (% YoY) Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Headline Core
13 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 13 What can we expect from the EU on Italy? This process is ex-post. It can be activated when Italian budget is implemented if they deviate from MTOs Significant Deviation Process Significant deviation is observed EC send recommendation to correct deviation within 5-3 months Council approves commission proposal that no action was taken Deposit up to 0.2% of GDP Commission will declare Italy is non compliant (end of November) Italy takes effective actions In order to sanction the deficit being negotiated (2019), it would be necessary to wait until October 2020 Most likely Scenario Excessive Deficit Procedure Does Italy take effective actions? 3-6 months to comply. It depends on severity No Fine of 0.2% (up to % of GDP) Freeze structural funds This process is Ex-ante. Council gives new recommendation, deadlines and targets Yes End of EDP Source: BBVA Research, EC, Brugel, CA
14 2019 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 14 Higher political uncertainty: UK political hurdles increase the chances of a no-deal Brexit 14 UK cabinet passed the agreement with the EU November 21? Political declaration on the future EU-UK relationship May s no-confidence vote? Unlikely or unsuccessful 25 Special European Council to endorse the withdrawal agreement December Passed. Straightforward line: EU Parliament vote (>375 of 751 votes) EU Council vote (at least 20 countries representing 65% of the EU population) March. Last EU-UK meeting 29 March. Transition period until December 2020 with only an undefined period extension. Backstop: UK in customs union European Council? UK Parliament vote (preferably before Christmas) No deal WTO rules Mini deals over transitory period, but also very hard Brexit People s vote Huge obstacles - Via the election of a Labour government -Parliament could ask the government to organize a People s vote Failed. Several options: General election - May would table a parliamentary vote (2/3 MPs) - Simple majority of MPs vote (no confidence in government) - Repeal Fixed-term act Changes in parliamentary arithmetic could enable a deal to pass Labour government could seek a significant softer Brexit or a new referendum An extension of Art.50 might be required; No deal is a possible outcome 21 days to propose a new plan No changes in parliamentary arithmetic Strong EU position, but UK could shift its red lines and the EU could agree to a political declaration sketching out a closer future relationship
15 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 15 Eurozone Economic Watch October 2018
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