Eurozone Economic Watch

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Eurozone Economic Watch"

Transcription

1 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018

2 Eurozone: Growth to recover in 4Q18, but concerns about the slowdown next year are growing Eurozone GDP growth slowed down more than expected in 3Q18, to 0.2% QoQ, with negative surprises in Germany and Italy. Hard data until September suggest that the significant deterioration of net exports might have weighed on growth. Domestic demand remained solid, except in Germany due to the disruption in the auto sector that impacted both investment and consumption. Confidence data in October declined further, mainly in the manufacturing sector. It is still in expansionary territory, but there are increasing concerns about the negative effects of heighted uncertainty on activity. Our MICA-BBVA model projects a slight growth upturn, but at a moderate pace (around 0.3% QoQ in 4Q18 after 0.4% on average in 1H18). This, along with disappointing figures in 3Q18, puts a small downward bias to our GDP growth forecast of 2% in 2018 and 1.7% in Political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and Italian fiscal policy is likely to increase in the remainder of the year. Higher energy prices have kept inflation around 2%, but underlying rates remain at low levels. We continue to expect a gradual upward trend in core inflation in coming months driven by higher input prices and the tightening of the labour market, more evident in some countries.

3 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 3 Sharp slowdown in the Eurozone in 3Q18, partly transitory, but recent data suggest a return to a more moderate growth ahead GDP, contribution by components (%, QoQ) GDP and MICA forecasts (%, QoQ) Private consumption GFCF Net Exports Public consumption Inventories Real GDP CI 20% CI 40% CI 60% Observed Growth slowed down by 0.2pp to 0.2% QoQ in 3Q18. The disaggregation by component is not available yet but the deterioration of net exports might have weighed on growth. Domestic demand should remain solid, except in Germany due to the negative impact of the disruption in the auto sector linked to environmental regulations on both investment and consumption.

4 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Germany France Italy Spain BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 4 Growth has eased across countries, with negative surprises in Germany and Italy GDP and expenditure contribution by country (%QoQ, pp) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% % -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Germany France Italy Spain Diff. GDP relative to 2008 Final Consumption GFCF Inventories Net Exports Diff. GDP level relative to 2008 GDP q/q % change Euro GDP QoQ

5 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 5 PMIs extended their downward trend in October, raising concerns about the negative effect of heighted uncertainty on activity PMI and GDP (level, %QoQ) EC confidence survey (level) PMIs level GDP (% QoQ) Real GDP (%QoQ) Services PMI PMI Manufacturing PMI ESI (lhs) Consumer (rhs) Industrial (rhs) Services (rhs) Despite being higher than their flash estimates, final PMIs in October signal further declines in both the manufacturing and the service sectors. More importantly, leading indicators mainly business confidence and new orders- are reaching multi-year lows, as uncertainty surrounding Brexit talks and US-China trade negotiations could be affecting confidence and investment. Source: Eurostat, European Commission and BBVA Research

6 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 6 The resilience of confidence in the service sector in large EZ countries contrasts with that of manufacturing, except in Italy PMI Survey (level) Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Germany France Italy Spain Composite Confidence PMI levels Manufacturing adjust from PMI high levels, Services PMI reflecting a broad divergence between the manufacturing and the services sector and also mask some differences among countries. Overall, confidence readings are still consistent with a steady quarterly growth in 3Q but provide a weak start of Q4. Source: Markit and BBVA Research

7 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 7 Despite the rebound in August and the modest decline in September, industrial output was flat in 3Q18 Industrial production (Level, % QoQ) IP (level) IP capital equipment, investment in M&E and capacity utilization (%QoQ; %) Inv. M&E; IP Capacity utilization (%) IP (% QoQ) IP (2015=100) GFCF: M&E (%QoQ) Capacity Utilization (%) IP Capital (%QoQ) Industrial output stagnated in 3Q18 as the falls of durable consumer and intermediate goods offset the rebound in capital goods and energy. Uncertainty surrounding auto tariffs and the probability of a hard Brexit are conditioning the investment outlook, while new EU regulations on car emissions have had an impact on the automobile sector, especially in Germany.

8 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 8 Exports disappointed in September, but accelerated slightly in 3Q18 overall. Trade balance ( bn; %GDP) Exports by destination (%YoY; pp) Exports, imports Trade Balance (%GDP) Exports Imports Trade Balance (% GDP) Intra EU United States China Asia Ex. China LatAm RoW Total Exports Exports declined in September (-1,6% m/m), offsetting partly the rebound in August. Global demand support remains, but is moderating, while concerns arise from China s lower demand beyond the negative transitory effect of the change in the regulation of car emissions.

9 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 9 Retail sales stagnated in September. The trend is still solid but has loosened some steam over the past year Retail sales and consumer confidence (%QoQ, level) Retail sales and total wage bill (%YoY; pp) Retail Sales (% QoQ) Consumer Confidence Retail Sales (%QoQ) Consumer Confidence Real compensation Total wage bill Employees Retail sales Retail sales flattened in 3Q18 as a whole, which was expected after the sharp increase in the previous quarter. The improvement in the labour market, the gradual increase in wages and slowing energy prices should continue to underpin private consumption in coming quarters.

10 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 10 The unemployment rate remained broadly unchanged in September Unemployment rate by country (%) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Annual unemployment change by gender and age (millions) % Sep-17 Aug-18 Sep-18 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Women 25-74Y Men 25-74Y Men < 25Y Women < 25Y Total The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.1% in September for a third month in row, interrupting the downward trend over the last five years. Despite significant differences across countries, the tightening of the labour market should result in upward wage pressures in coming quarters.

11 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 11 Higher energy prices could keep inflation around 2% for the rest of the year, but core inflation remains at low levels Inflation contribution of components (%YoY, pp) Core and trimmed-mean inflation (%YoY; pp) Services Processed Food Unprocessed Food Non-energy industrial goods Energy HICP (% y/y) Trimmed mean inflation Core inflation Inflation edged up slightly in October (0.1pp to 2.2% YoY) due to higher energy prices, together with core inflation (+0.1pp to 1.2% YoY), driven by higher prices for services and non-energy industrial goods.

12 oct-18 oct-18 oct-18 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 12 Headline inflation increased across countries driven by energy prices, but differences in core inflation continue to increase Headline and core inflation (% YoY) Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Headline Core

13 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 13 What can we expect from the EU on Italy? This process is ex-post. It can be activated when Italian budget is implemented if they deviate from MTOs Significant Deviation Process Significant deviation is observed EC send recommendation to correct deviation within 5-3 months Council approves commission proposal that no action was taken Deposit up to 0.2% of GDP Commission will declare Italy is non compliant (end of November) Italy takes effective actions In order to sanction the deficit being negotiated (2019), it would be necessary to wait until October 2020 Most likely Scenario Excessive Deficit Procedure Does Italy take effective actions? 3-6 months to comply. It depends on severity No Fine of 0.2% (up to % of GDP) Freeze structural funds This process is Ex-ante. Council gives new recommendation, deadlines and targets Yes End of EDP Source: BBVA Research, EC, Brugel, CA

14 2019 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 14 Higher political uncertainty: UK political hurdles increase the chances of a no-deal Brexit 14 UK cabinet passed the agreement with the EU November 21? Political declaration on the future EU-UK relationship May s no-confidence vote? Unlikely or unsuccessful 25 Special European Council to endorse the withdrawal agreement December Passed. Straightforward line: EU Parliament vote (>375 of 751 votes) EU Council vote (at least 20 countries representing 65% of the EU population) March. Last EU-UK meeting 29 March. Transition period until December 2020 with only an undefined period extension. Backstop: UK in customs union European Council? UK Parliament vote (preferably before Christmas) No deal WTO rules Mini deals over transitory period, but also very hard Brexit People s vote Huge obstacles - Via the election of a Labour government -Parliament could ask the government to organize a People s vote Failed. Several options: General election - May would table a parliamentary vote (2/3 MPs) - Simple majority of MPs vote (no confidence in government) - Repeal Fixed-term act Changes in parliamentary arithmetic could enable a deal to pass Labour government could seek a significant softer Brexit or a new referendum An extension of Art.50 might be required; No deal is a possible outcome 21 days to propose a new plan No changes in parliamentary arithmetic Strong EU position, but UK could shift its red lines and the EU could agree to a political declaration sketching out a closer future relationship

15 BBVA Research Eurozone Economic Watch November 2018 / 15 Eurozone Economic Watch October 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch

Eurozone Economic Watch BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. February 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global

More information

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political

More information

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the

More information

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015 Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released

More information

Global Economic Watch

Global Economic Watch BBVA Research Global Economic Watch July 2018 / 1 Global Economic Watch July 2018 Steady global growth, but risks intensify Our BBVA-GAIN model projects that global growth could remain slightly above 1%

More information

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Economic Institute Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Warsaw / 9 March Inflation projection of the NBP based on the NECMOD model Outline: Introduction Changes between

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates

More information

Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018

Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018 Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy

More information

The Outlook for European Economies

The Outlook for European Economies The Outlook for European Economies Domestic demand-led moderate economic growth forecast to continue REIKO SHINOHARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO SHIN TAKAYAMA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE LONDON MUFG Bank,

More information

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017

GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017 GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,

More information

The Economic Context for Budget 2019

The Economic Context for Budget 2019 The Economic Context for Budget 219 1 October 218 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB Steady global growth forecast but GDP (Vol Change) 217 218(f) 219(f) 22(f) World 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Advanced Economies 2.3

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global

More information

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Monday 2, 08.30 SWE: PMI Manufacturing (Sep) Index SEB Cons. Prev. PMI 60.5 -- 54.7 Manufacturing PMI showed an unexpectedly large fall in August.

More information

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth

More information

Portugal: GDP growth forecasts for 2018 reviewed upwards to 1.7%

Portugal: GDP growth forecasts for 2018 reviewed upwards to 1.7% 13 March 217 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Portugal: GDP growth forecasts for 218 reviewed upwards to 1.7% Myriam Montañez Growth of the Portuguese economy in 4Q16 reached.6% QoQ 1, once again causing positive surprise

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries where manufacturing begins Inside this edition... 0 Executive Summary 1 Machine Tool Orders 1.1 Orders per Country 1.2 Peter Meier s Forecast CECIMO

More information

Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Economic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook

More information

Macro Research Economic outlook

Macro Research Economic outlook Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized

More information

Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017

Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017 Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Friday, 21 July 2017 Agency previous new action Greece S&P B- / Stable B- /

More information

GDP growth accelerates at year-end, although risks remain

GDP growth accelerates at year-end, although risks remain Activity Spain: The GDP growth forecast for 4Q18 supports the 2.6% advance for 2018 Spain and Portugal Unit 14 December 2018 The growth of the Spanish economy could stand between 0.7% and 0.8% quarterly

More information

Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017

Editor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017 Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 10 16 Jul, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Upcoming rating reviews Source: Bloomberg Monday 10, 08.00 NOR: CPI (Jun) SEB Cons.

More information

EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS. September 2006 Interim forecast

EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS. September 2006 Interim forecast EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS September 26 Interim forecast Press conference of 6 September 26 European economic growth speeding up, boosted by buoyant domestic

More information

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook 7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

An economic update Craig Botham, Economist May 2017

An economic update Craig Botham, Economist May 2017 An economic update Craig Botham, Economist May 2017 2016 image of the year Donald and Nigel at Trump towers Source: Splashnews.com. 1 Key issues UK: the election, Brexit and beyond Europe: out of the woods?

More information

Latin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018

Latin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018 Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential

More information

Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011

Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011 Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN february 2017

NBS MoNthly BulletiN february 2017 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 5 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +41//5787 146 http://www.nbs.sk All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN december 2016

NBS MoNthly BulletiN december 2016 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 5 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +1//5787 1 http://www.nbs.sk Discussed by the Bank Board on December 1. All

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key

More information

Controlled descent. Czech Economic Quarterly March 21, Czech and Slovak Economic Research

Controlled descent. Czech Economic Quarterly March 21, Czech and Slovak Economic Research Controlled descent In 4Q18, real GDP growth accelerated to.9% qoq and 2.8% yoy from 3Q18 s dynamics of.7% qoq and 2.5% yoy. Nominal GDP grew by a solid 5.2% yoy. From the production side, all sectors but

More information

Latin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017

Latin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017 Latin America Outlook 2nd QUARTER Latin America Outlook 2Q17 Main messages 1. Global growth keeps increasing, and uncertainty about US policies starts to fade. Nevertheless, global risks remain. 2. The

More information

Postponed recovery. The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 INSEE CONJONCTURE

Postponed recovery. The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 INSEE CONJONCTURE INSEE CONJONCTURE CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 Postponed recovery The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in Q2. While GDP rebounded in the United States and remained dynamic in the United

More information

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 11 February, NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: February UK economy weaker than expected in December

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 11 February, NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: February UK economy weaker than expected in December Press Release NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: February 2019 UK economy weaker than expected in December Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1 2018

More information

The Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016

The Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016 Editor: Carl Hammer The Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016 Editor: Benjamin Dousa Monday 4, 08.30 SWE: PMI manufacturing (Dec) Index SEB Cons. Prev PMI 55.0 --- 54.9 Manufacturing confidence according

More information

MonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017

MonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017 q ING BANK A.Ş. ECONOMIC RESEARCH GROUP MonitorING Turkey October 17 Emerging Markets October 17 USD/TRY MonitorING Turkey Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan In 17, accelerated spending and

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook November, Economic Club of Sheboygan George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Outlook themes Growth has rebounded following a soft first

More information

5.9 Percent 4.4 Percent 10.2 Percent 9.7 Percent. autonomous federated state Head of Government Angela Merkel Horst Seehofer José Manuel Barroso 3,7%

5.9 Percent 4.4 Percent 10.2 Percent 9.7 Percent. autonomous federated state Head of Government Angela Merkel Horst Seehofer José Manuel Barroso 3,7% Economic Outlook Germany, Bavaria, Eurozone, and EU-27 General Information Germany Bavaria Eurozone EU-27 Area 357.022 km² 70.552 km² 4.324.782 km² Population 81.796.000 12.583.538 327.054.866 502.489.100

More information

Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011

Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011 Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past

More information

THE EURO AREA: ECONOMIC SITUATION, PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

THE EURO AREA: ECONOMIC SITUATION, PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES THE EURO AREA: ECONOMIC SITUATION, PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES Óscar Arce Director General Economics, Statistics and Research Banco de España Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Series Madrid, 218

More information

International Economy Watch

International Economy Watch International Economy Watch August AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit GDP Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- QoQ Change US......... -...... Eurozone -. -. -. -. -. -.......... German.... -.

More information

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -

FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research

More information

HKU Announced 2013 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU Announced 2013 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Enquiry: 2859 1106 Website: http://www.hku.hk/cpao For Immediate Release HKU Announced 2013 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Hong Kong Economic

More information

FOMC Stresses Importance of Data-Dependent Policy in October Minutes

FOMC Stresses Importance of Data-Dependent Policy in October Minutes Economic Analysis FOMC Stresses Importance of Data-Dependent Policy in October Minutes Kim Fraser Chase The minutes from October s FOMC meeting revealed some further discussion on forward guidance and

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

Spain Economic Outlook

Spain Economic Outlook Spain Economic Outlook 2 nd Quarter 2018 Spain and Portugal Unit Contents 1. Editorial 3 2. Global economy: growth continues at a steady pace, but protectionist risk intensifies 5 3. Growth outlook for

More information

The External Environment for Developing Countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

More information

NBS MoNthly BulletiN NoveMBer 2016

NBS MoNthly BulletiN NoveMBer 2016 Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 5 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +1//5787 1 http://www.nbs.sk Discussed by the Bank Board on November. All rights

More information

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.

Leumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa. Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report

More information

UK ahead of elections: political uncertainties, longterm challenges. Second Quarter 2015

UK ahead of elections: political uncertainties, longterm challenges. Second Quarter 2015 UK ahead of elections: political uncertainties, longterm challenges Second Quarter 215 UK Ahead of Elections, Second Quarter 215 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 All parties are polling well short of a majority

More information

Auto

Auto University Of Balamand Economics and Capital Markets Research Center A BanqueLibano-FrançaisePartnered Initiative Daily Market Watch Tuesday, October 3, 27 Focus on BoJ According to a 8- majority vote,

More information

NZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018

NZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018 NZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018 Contents 1. Economic and market recap 3 2. Performance and attribution 10 3. Attribution 17 4. Strategy 26 Appendix 1. Portfolio composition 30 1. ECONOMIC AND MARKET RECAP

More information

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015

All the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015 Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in

More information

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. Analysis of the Draft Budgetary Plan of Latvia. Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. Analysis of the Draft Budgetary Plan of Latvia. Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 21.11.2018 SWD(2018) 522 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Analysis of the Draft Budgetary Plan of Latvia Accompanying the document COMMISSION OPINION on the Draft Budgetary

More information

Next week. Global Weekly Indicators Calendar: Indicators. Eurozone: HICP inflation Flash (May, 3 June)

Next week. Global Weekly Indicators Calendar: Indicators. Eurozone: HICP inflation Flash (May, 3 June) ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Sonsoles Castillo / Cristina Varela / Jaime Costero Indicators collaboration: Diego José Torres / Michael Soni / Fielding Chen Next week The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting,

More information

Economic activity gathers pace

Economic activity gathers pace Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to

More information

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 10 April, NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: April Positive news on UK economy, but pace of growth remains modest

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 10 April, NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: April Positive news on UK economy, but pace of growth remains modest Press Release NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: April 2019 Positive news on UK economy, but pace of growth remains modest Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis

The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis October 1 Troy Davig Director of Research Outlook themes The US remains in a moderate growth environment The unemployment rate is 8.1%, close

More information

UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox

UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox UniCredit Eurozone Economist Toolbox Aurelio Maccario Chief Eurozone Economist - UniCredit Group UniCredit Group Research aurelio.maccario@unicreditgroup.de Florence, 03 April 2009 GDP Tracker: Sharp GDP

More information

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review

Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global

More information

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events Oct, 2017

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events Oct, 2017 Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 16 22 Oct, 2017 Tuesday 17, 11.00 ZEW Survey (Oct), Germany and EMU Germany SEB Cons. Previous Current Situation 89.5 88.5 87.9 Growth expectations 20.0 20.0

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public

More information

PERSPECTIVES. By Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group

PERSPECTIVES. By Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group PERSPECTIVES By Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group Increasing concerns about global economic growth, especially in the Eurozone Ruth Lea Economic Adviser Arbuthnot Banking Group

More information

Monthly Economic Report

Monthly Economic Report Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were

More information

Projections for the Portuguese Economy:

Projections for the Portuguese Economy: Projections for the Portuguese Economy: 2018-2020 March 2018 BANCO DE PORTUGAL E U R O S Y S T E M BANCO DE EUROSYSTEM PORTUGAL Projections for the portuguese economy: 2018-20 Continued expansion of economic

More information

INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018

INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018 INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018 OVERVIEW Surveys and hard data show the global economy growing at a healthy pace with minimal inflation risk. Activity accelerated in Q2 and our expectation of 3.4% GDP growth

More information

The international environment

The international environment The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with

More information

Portugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012

Portugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation

More information

Projections for the Portuguese economy:

Projections for the Portuguese economy: Projections for the Portuguese economy: 217-19 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 217-19 1. Introduction The projections for the Portuguese economy point to a continued economic activity recovery

More information

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy

Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy December 7 Released on December 7 Outlook for Australia Economic Activity Actual

More information

Leumi Economic Weekly November 30, 2016

Leumi Economic Weekly November 30, 2016 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Leumi Economic Weekly November 30, 2016 The composite

More information

Poland s Economic Prospects

Poland s Economic Prospects Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real

More information

KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016

KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January

More information

Portugal: surprise increase in 3Q GDP growth to 0.8% QoQ

Portugal: surprise increase in 3Q GDP growth to 0.8% QoQ December 6 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Portugal: surprise increase in 3Q GDP growth to.8% QoQ Myriam Montañez The Portuguese economy grew by.8% QoQ in 3Q6, considerably more than expected (.3% QoQ). In contrast

More information

UK Economic Outlook March 2017

UK Economic Outlook March 2017 www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects Consumer spending prospects after Brexit Will robots steal our jobs? 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly

More information

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS NOVEMBER 2018 2 Summary of macroeconomic developments, November 2018 Indicators of global economic activity suggest a continuation of solid growth in the final quarter

More information

Global PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Global PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Global PMI Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials July 7 th 2017 2 Widening developed and emerging world growth trends The global economy enjoyed further steady growth in June, according to

More information

HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast

HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q3 HK Macroeconomic Forecast July 7, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong

More information

Japan Chart Book. 5 February 2014

Japan Chart Book. 5 February 2014 Japan Chart Book 5 February Japan: Economic Forecast Dashboard Forecast highlights Real GDP growth forecast at. in and. in 5 Slower consumption in -5 but offset by improved exports and investment Gradual

More information

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 29 Jan 4 Feb, 2018

Editor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 29 Jan 4 Feb, 2018 Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 29 Jan 4 Feb, 2018 Tuesday 30, 08.00 NOR: Retail sales (Dec) % mom/yoy SEB Cons. Prev. Retail sales exc. autos -0.5/4.5-0.7/--- 2.1/3.5 Retail sales surged

More information

GDP growth above trend, while inflation pressures remain muted

GDP growth above trend, while inflation pressures remain muted NZ Economy - Overview 1 GDP growth above trend, while inflation pressures remain muted Leading indicators suggest a near-term annual GDP growth rate around a robust 3.-3.% YoY level Current supportive

More information

Table 1.1. A comparison between the present forecast and the previous forecast in selected areas.

Table 1.1. A comparison between the present forecast and the previous forecast in selected areas. English summary 1. Short term forecast Since the beginning of 1 the international economy has experienced relatively low growth rates. This downturn in economic growth has been followed by a substantial

More information

NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: July 2018

NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: July 2018 Press Release NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: July 2018 GDP Tracker indicates growth of 0.4 per cent in 2018 Q2 and 0.5 per cent in 2018 Q3 Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent)

More information

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 10 September, NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: September UK economic growth gathers momentum. 0.7 NIESR forecast 0.

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 10 September, NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: September UK economic growth gathers momentum. 0.7 NIESR forecast 0. Press Release NIESR MONTHLY GDP TRACKER: September 2018 UK economic growth gathers momentum Figure 1: UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) 0.7 NIESR forecast 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2017

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

EU steel market situation and outlook. Key challenges

EU steel market situation and outlook. Key challenges 70th Session of the OECD Steel Committee Paris, 12 13 May 2011 EU steel market situation and outlook http://www.eurofer.org/index.php/eng/issues-positions/economic-development-steel-market Key challenges

More information

Latin America Outlook 2Q18

Latin America Outlook 2Q18 BBVA Research - Latin America Outlook 2Q18 / 1 Latin America Outlook 2Q18 April Key messages Global growth remains robust., although uncertainty is increasing. US fiscal stimulus may underpin progress

More information

LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016

LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016 LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA 4th QUARTER LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q Main messages The global economy is heading for a slow recovery. Global GDP growth will improve slightly from the second

More information

Jan-Mar nd Preliminary GDP Estimate

Jan-Mar nd Preliminary GDP Estimate Japan's Economy 8 June 2016 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 08 Jun 2016 Jan-Mar 2016 2 nd Preliminary GDP Estimate Real GDP growth rate revised upwards slightly from 1 st preliminary; results in accordance

More information