MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
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2 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight weight EQUITIES US % 2.5% Brazil % -0.5% Developed Equities % 0.8% Canada % -0.3% Emerging Equities % 0.7% Euroland % -2.6% China % 0.0% FIXED INCOME Japan % 0.1% India % 0.0% Government Bonds % 0.0% UK % 2.5% South-Korea % 1.2% Investment Grade % 1.0% Switzerland % -1.3% Taiwan % 0.5% High Yield % 1.1% Australia % -0.8% Russia % 0.0% COMMODITIES Brent Oil % 0.2% South Africa % -1.3% Base Metals % 0.5% Turkey % 0.0% Gold % 0.3% Module Total % 0.00% Module Total % 0.00% Agricultural % 0.3% Cash Euro -3.4% -5.0% BOND COUNTRIES SOVEREIGN 1 Module Total 0.0% 0.0% Alpha Current Previous weight weight PORTFOLIO STATISTICS US % 6.7% Target Ex-ante Volatility 1.00% Euroland % -0.5% Real Ex-ante Volatility 0.74% Japan % -0.5% UK % -5.2% Switzerland % -0.5% 1-Hedged in Euro, 2-Local Currency Module Total % 0.00%
3 Consensus Forecasts: Growth & Inflation GDP y.o.y % Inflation y.o.y % M= Mean; H= High; L=Low M H L -1M M H L -1M M H L -1M M H L -1M Developed Economies USA [3.1] [3.0] [2.2] [1.9] Canada [2.9] [3.2] [1.8] [2.2] Euro zone [1.1] [1.5] [1.1] [1.4] UK [1.4] [2.3] [2.6] [1.7] Switzerland [1.5] [1.8] [0.8] [1.1] Japan [1.9] [1.6] [1.1] [0.3] Australia [3.1] [3.4] [2.5] [2.7] Source: Consensus Forecasts as of 12/04/2010
4 65 6 Euroland: Private Consumption and Unemployment GDP Growth (YoY % change) ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Non manufacturing PMI (Left) Source: Factset, BNPP AM Unemployment Rate Total, % SA (Left) Real Private Consumption, YoY% changes (Right) Source: Factset, BNPP AM
5 140 Public Debt (% of GDP) 350 Sovereign 5-year CDS spreads*, basis points Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies World G Asia ex-japan * PPP GDP weighted, EZ excludes Luxembourg & Malta Eurozone Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 09 10
6 EMU countries 10 year spreads vs Bund 05-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 03-May Ireland Greece Portugal Source: Factset, BNPPAM Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 03-May Germany Govt 10 Year Yield US Govt 10 Year Yield Source: Factset, BNPPAM
7 High Yield Spreads May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr iboxx Euro / Banks Senior - Benchmark Spread - Bond iboxx Euro / Industrial Goods & Services - Benchmark Spread - Bond iboxx Euro / Utilities - Benchmark Spread - Bond Source: Factset, BNPPAM 2 1 Jan10 Feb10 Mar10 Apr10 Barcap Pan-Euro Barcap US Greece 10 Year Source: Factset, BNPPAM
8 EUR/USD FX Rate Forecast Summary (Major Currencies) End of Period May-10 2Q Q Q Q 2011 Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max USD Block EUR / USD USD / JPY USD / CAD AUD / USD GBP / USD USD / CHF EUR Block EUR / JPY EUR / GBP EUR / CHF Source: BNPP AM as of 7/5/2010
9 % 7.6% 03/09 05/09 07/09 09/09 11/09 01/10 03/10 05/10 9.6% MSCI World (DM), local currencies 50D Mav 200D Mav Source: Factset, BNPP AM Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 ISM non manufacturing ISM manufacturing ECRI Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar Source: Bloomberg, BNPP AM 0
10 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 77% 47% 83% S&P 500 ex-financials: % positive surprises* 83% 78% 69% 68% 57% MSCI USA BUY 30% % % % Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 janv.03 juil.03 janv.04 juil.04 janv.05 juil.05 janv.06 juil.06 janv.07 juil.07 janv.08 juil.08 janv.09 juil.09 janv.10 EPS Sales Source: Bloomberg, BNPP AM REB#(MSUSAML,31/12/06) 40 weeks 13 weeks
11 MSCI Index Return (%) Regional performance in the four stages of an upturn, since 1998 Bounce Earnings Recovery Tightening Euphoria Global USA Europe Japan Asia Pac xj GEM LEI CHINA lagged MSCI EM ASIA (local) vs MSCI World(R.H.SCALE) Source: DATASTREAM
12 /5/ MSCI China PER vs MCI EM PER Chinese H-Shares vs MSCI EM(R.H.SCALE) Source: DATASTREAM Brazilian Basic Resources vs Broad market Source: DATASTREAM
13 Gold (lhs) 6 biggest gold ETFs in tonnes (rhs) 1, , ,100 1, , , Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Crude Oil, Nymex, Usd (Left) EIA Total Stock Levels excl SPR, Mln Barrel (Right) EIA Gasoline + Distillates Stock Levels, Mln Barrel (Right) Source: BNPPAM, Factset 800 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 1,400
14 This document is issued by BNP Paribas Asset Management (BNPP AM)*, a member of BNP Paribas Investment Partners (BNPP IP)**, and is produced for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or be taken as investment advice. The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from, amongst other things, public sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions included herein constitute the judgement of BNPP AM at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice, they are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient and are not intended to provide the sole basis of evaluation of any strategy or instrument. Any reference to past performance of any market or instrument should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No BNP Paribas Group company accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising, whether direct or indirect, from the use of any part of such information. Any BNP Paribas Group company may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information contained herein, or in the research or analysis on which it was based, before its publication. This document is for the use of the intended recipients only and may not be delivered or transmitted to any other person without the prior written consent of BNPP AM. Furthermore, any translation, adaptation or total or partial reproduction of this document, by any process whatsoever, in any country whatsoever, is prohibited unless BNPP AM has given its prior written consent. * BNPP AM is an investment manager registered with the Autorité des marchés financiers in France under number 96-02, a simplified joint stock company with a capital of 62,845,552 euros with its registered office at 1, boulevard Haussmann Paris, France, RCS Paris { HYPERLINK " }. ** BNP Paribas Investment Partners is the global brand name of the BNP Paribas group s asset management services. The individual asset management entities within BNP Paribas Investment Partners if specified herein, are specified for information only and do not necessarily carry on business in your jurisdiction. For further information, please contact your locally licensed Investment Partner
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