Five years into the crisis. Is the world more stable or more unstable? Page 2 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

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2 Five years into the crisis. Is the world more stable or more unstable? Page 2 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

3 % of GDP The Debt Issue in Developed Markets Developed Markets Debt-to-GDP Evolution US Public Debt 1980 Public Debt 2012 Private Debt 1980 Private Debt 2012 Source: BIS, IMF Financial Stability Repot, October Data as at December Japan UK Italy France Page 3 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

4 The Rupture of the Intergenerational Pact Future Liabilities Should Weigh on the Public Sector % of GDP Gross Debt/GDP: Possible Increase Due to Future Liabilities US Japan UK Italy France Germany Net Present Value of health care spending change Net Present Value of pension spending change Gross Debt/GDP at 2011 Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2013 Edition. Projections do not take into account reforms enacted after December Gross Debt/GDP at Future Liabilities Page 4 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

5 % The Rupture of the Intergenerational Pact Youth Unemployment in Europe Youth Unemployment Rate (People Under 25) Germany US UK France Italy Spain Source: Bloomberg, Data Eurostat as of 30 April 2013 (UK at 28 February 2013). Page 5 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

6 Balance Sheet Assets as % of GDP The Answer: Massive Money Printing Central Banks Balance Sheet Expansion 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Source: Bloomberg, data as at 31 May FED Balance Sheet (% GDP) BOE Balance Sheet (% GDP) ECB Balance Sheet (% GDP) BOJ Balance Sheet (% GDP) Page 6 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

7 Index Price, rebased to 100 at Dec 2000 The Asset Inflation Implication Property Prices US New York London Paris (rh axis) Hong Kong (rh axis) Source: Bloomberg. US= S&P/Case-Shiller Compoosite-20 Home Prices Seasonally Adjusted, New York= S&P/Case-Shiller Condominium Price for New York Seasonally Adjusted, UK=UK HBOS Property Prices London Seasonally Adjusted. Data as at 31 March 2013, Paris= France House Prie Ile de France Paris Apartments, Hong Kong= Hong Kong Housing & Real Estate Prices Private Housing. Page 7 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference Hong Kong & Paris, rebased to100 at Dec 2000

8 Top 1 % Income Share, % % The Unequal Distribution of Income Implication Percentage of Income Going to the Top 1% of Earners US UK Source: The World Top Income Database. Data as at 31 December Page 8 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

9 Then why is it rational to be long risky assets, Equities in particular? Page 9 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

10 Real Interest Rates on 10-Year Bond (%) Reason 1: Financial Repression Real Rates on 10-Year Government Bonds in Developed Markets Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 May Page 10 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference. US Germany UK Japan

11 % Institutional Investors Allocation to Equities is at Historical Lows US Pension Funds Equities Asset Allocation Evolution UK Pension Plans Equities Asset Allocation Evolution % Source: Milliman 2013 Pension Funding Study Analysis on the top 100 U.S. pension plans. Source: Mercers European Asset Allocation Survey Page 11 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

12 GDP average annual growth, % Reason 2: Improving Outlook Improving Outlook for GDP Growth United States Euro area Japan China Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April Data for are Pioneer Investments estimates. Page 12 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

13 US Structural Outlook Energy Independence Net Oil & Gas Import Dependance By 2020, new production and reduced consumption could lead to a 2.0 to 3.3% increase in real GDP Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook November Citi, Energy 2020: North America, the New Middle East?. Page 13 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

14 US Cyclical Outlook Households Net Worth Supporting the Housing Recovery Billion USD Housing Starts, Thousands US Households and Non Profit Organizations Net Worth 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30, Households & Non Profit Organizations Net Worth Source: Bloomberg, Data as at 31 December Page 14 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference. US Home Prices and Housing Starts 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, US New Privately Owned Housing (LH Scale) S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (RH Scale) Source: Bloomberg, Data as at 31 March Home Prices Change Year over Year %

15 Unemployment Rate % US Cyclical Outlook Challenges from the Job Market Participation Rate % US Labour Market Monthly Change in Payrolls Thousands Labour Force Participation Rate Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (RH scale) Unemployment Rate (LH scale) Source: Bloomberg, Data as at 30 April US Labour Force Participation Rate Page 15 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

16 Europe Structural Outlook Developments on Fiscal Consolidation % of GDP Fiscal Consolidation in the Eurozone Differences in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance as % of Potential GDP % of the fiscal consolidation in the Eurozone has already happened France Germany Italy Spain Portugal Ireland Greece Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor, April Page 16 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

17 Base 100 at Dec 2000 Europe Structural Outlook Unit Labour Costs Convergence Nominal Unit Labour Cost Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Ireland Greece Source: Eurostat. Data as at 31 December Page 17 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference

18 Europe Structural Outlook Current Account Convergence 2008 Current Account Balance as % of GDP Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Current Account Balance as % of GDP Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Source: Eurostat. Data as at 31 December Page 18 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

19 Europe Cyclical Outlook In the Eurozone Current Sentiment Indicators Remain Weak PMI Level Manufacturing PMI Eurozone Germany France Italy Source: Bloomberg, Data as at 31 May 2013 (Italy at 31 March 2013). Page 19 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

20 Europe Cyclical Outlook Peripheral Credit Conditions Remain Tight Rate % Financial Lending Rates to Non-Financial Corporations Loans up to 1 million at floating rate and up to 1 year initial rate fixation Germany France Italy Spain Portugal Ireland Greece Source: ECB, Loans up to 1 million at floating rate and up to 1 year initial rate fixation. Data as at March Page 20 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

21 China Structural Outlook Bull and Bear Factors China s Household Consumption as % of GDP BULL Chinese Rebalancing could be under way * Official data Bottom-up estimate Source: Morgan Stanley. * Estimate. Data as at 31 December BEAR Credit Issues China s Outstanding Credit as % of GDP E Government Corporate loans (excl. LGP loans) Consumer loans Other corporate (including shadow banking ) Source: Goldman Sachs. Data as at 26 April Page 21 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

22 China Cyclical Outlook Exports and Imports Trends Year on Year % Change China Exports and Imports, Year on Year Percentage Variation China Export Trade YoY China Import Trade YoY Source: :Bloomberg, data as at 30 April Page 22 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

23 % of GDP Japan Structural Outlook The Twin Balances % of GDP Current Account Balance Japan Source: :Bloomberg, data as at 31 December Primary Balance Japan Page 23 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

24 10y govt rates % Japan Cyclical Outlook Abenomics Effects 2.5 Japanese 10y govt rates vs. YEN\USD Breakdown of JGB Holders (Trillion YEN) YEN\USD Nominal 10 Yrs Rate JPY/USD Exchange Rate Source: Bloomberg, data as at 31 May Page 24 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference Others Public/Pensions/Life Insurance BOJ Households Foreigners Banks, etc. Source: Quarterly newsletter, Ministry of Finance Japan, April 2013.

25 Yield % Yield % 7.5 Reason 3: Valuations vs. Bonds 10-Year EMU Bond Yield vs. Dividend Yield Year US Bond Yield vs. Dividend Yield MSCI EMU Dividend Yield German 10 Yrs Yield Source: Bloomberg. Data as at 31 May S&P 500 Dividend Yield USA 10-year Bond Yield Page 25 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

26 Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Reason 3: Valuations EURO CAPE 35 US CAPE P/E: P/BV: P/E: P/BV: CAPE Europe CAPE Europe Avg CAPE US CAPE US Avg Source: Pioneer Investments. Data as at 30 April Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings for MSCI Europe and MSCI US Indexes. Page 26 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

27 Investment Grade Spread, Basis Points Value in the Euro Periphery and (Selectively) in the Credit Market Yield Curves Spreads in Euro Corporate Bonds GERMANY ITALY SPAIN Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 31 May ML Euro Corporate Investment Grade ML Euro High Yield Source: Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Data as at 31 May High Yield Spread, Basis Points Page 27 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

28 What about Emerging Markets? Page 28 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

29 Index Value Base 100 at Dec 1987 Emerging Markets: The Challenging Decade MSCI Emerging Markets Performance vs. MSCI World Performance Emerging vs US Source: Bloomberg. Index MSCI EM Local Currencies divided by MSCI World Local Currencies. Data as at 31 May Page 29 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

30 Average Real GDP Growth 10 Years Emerging Markets are in a Transition Phase Inverse Relationship Between Real GDP Growth and Level of GDP per Capita China 8 Singapore 6 Korea GDP per Capita Thousand USD Source: IMF. Analysis on 3 series of 10 years period ( , , ) for 30 countries. Data as of 31December Page 30 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

31 The Differences Between Emerging Markets are Driven by Multiple Factors Infrastructure Foreign Direct Investment Urbanisation Structural Reforms Financial Markets Development Private Companies Development Page 31 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

32 Index Price, rebased to 100 at Dec 2005 Index Price, rebased to 100 at Dec 2005 Spotting the Difference in Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Equity BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 31 May Russia = MSCI Russia TR Net Local Currency, India = MSCI India TR Net Local Currency, China=, MSCI China TR Net Local Currency Brazil= MSCI Brazil TR Net Local Currency Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 31 May Russia = JPMorgan Corporate EMBI Broad Diversified Russia, India = JPMorgan Corporate EMBI Broad Diversified India, China=JPMorgan Corporate EMBI Broad Diversified China, Brazil= JPMorgan Corporate EMBI Broad Diversified Brazil. Page 32 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

33 Cumulative performance Spotting the Difference in Emerging Markets Relative Performance of Top and Bottom Quartile of Emerging Markets Stocks by Sales Growth 180% 150% 120% 90% 60% 30% 0% -30% -60% Nov 07 May 08 Nov 08 May 09 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Q1 sales growth Q4 sales growth Source: Goldman Sachs Research Estimates, Quantum database. Data as at 10 September Page 33 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

34 Page 34 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference. What can investors do?

35 Adapting to the New Investment Map Probability Base Scenario 60% 40% 20% Fat Tail Risk Investment implication WORSENING I. II. Portfolio hedging, real assets Economic Conditions Search for yield and capital appreciation with a gradual rotation into new assets IMPROVING Source: Pioneer Investments. For illustrative purposes only. Page 35 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

36 Expected Real Returns Lower Expected Returns 10-Year Expected Real Returns (Annualised) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: Pioneer Investments, data as at 31 May Equity markets returns are obtained by the aggregation of the projected contributions to total returns from earnings growth, valuation re-rating and dividends (share buy backs are considered where meaningful). Earnings growth is calculated as the combination of sales growth and margin changes, valuations changes imposes a long run mean reversion on long term CAPE, while dividends are calculated on constant pay-out ratios. Government bonds returns are obtained by the aggregation of the projected contributions of inflation, growth and monetary policy assumptions. Credit returns are obtained by the aggregation of the projected contribution of interest rates curve, implied volatility and default rates. In Commodities precious metal are excluded. Real returns are calculated with local expected inflation.. Page 36 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

37 3-Year Rollling Correlations 3-Year Rollling Correlations Changing Correlations Increasing Correlations Decreasing Correlations US Equities vs Commodities EU Equities vs Italy Govt EU Equities vs EU Fin. Sub. Source: Bloomberg. Weekly series from 03 rd Jan 2000 to 31 st May Us Equities = S&P500 Index TR in USD., EU Equities = MSCI Europe Index TR in LC Commodities = S&P GSCI Index in USD. Corporate US = US Corporate Master Index TR in USD. Italy Govt. = JP Morgan GBI Italy in EUR. Germany Govt. = JP Morgan GBI Germany. In EUR, US Govt.= JP Morgan GBI US in USD. Page 37 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference Italy Govt. Vs Germany Govt. US Corp. IG vs US Govt.

38 N. of days Increased Volatility and Fat Tail Risk Movements on S&P500 since In the extreme daily movements accounted for: Less than 4% of occurrences Almost 19% of market move s 60s 70s 80s 90s N. of days with S&P 500 move between 3% and 6% N. of days with S&P500 move above 6% Source: Pioneer Investments, Bloomberg. Data as at 31 December Page 38 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

39 Our Tactical Asset Allocation Summary Underweight Neutral Overweight Cash Government Bonds = Corporate Bonds Equity Treasury Bund JGB U.S. Corporate US Equity Euro IG Corporate Japanese Equity Euro Periphery Gov. Bonds European Equity China Equity FX Strategies: Long USD, Short JPY Alternative Strategies: Long Commodities Hedging Strategies: Protection on US and European Equity Source: Pioneer Investments, as of 17 May Page 39 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

40 In every crisis, there is opportunity. Old Chinese Proverb Page 40 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

41 Additional Notes The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an as is basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the MSCI Parties ) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, noninfringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. ( The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) SM was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of Standard & Poor's and MSCI. Neither Standard & Poor's, MSCI nor any other party involved in making or compiling any GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the forgoing, in no event shall Standard & Poor's, MSCI, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling any GICS classification have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. Page 41 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.

42 Important Information This material was originally produced for the Dublin 2013 Investment Conference on the Renaissance of Risk held 6-7 June 2013 in Dublin. It is being reproduced here for information and illustrative purposes only. Unless otherwise stated all information is from Pioneer Investments and is as at 24 May Past performance does not guarantee and is not indicative of future performance. Unless otherwise stated, all views expressed are those of Pioneer Investments. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested. This material does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation to sell any units of any investment fund or any service. The content of this document is approved by PGIL. In the UK, it is approved for distribution by Pioneer Global Investments Limited (London Branch), Portland House, Bressenden Place, London, SW1E 5BH. Pioneer Global Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority ( FCA ) are available from us on request. Pioneer Investments is a trading name of the Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A. group of companies. Date of First Use: 31 May 2013 Page 42 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.