The External Environment for Developing Countries

Transcription

1 d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

2 Industrial countries

3 Largest recipients of TARP funds Banks that borrowed funds under TARP Amount Borrowed ($bn) Citigroup 50 Bank of America/Merrill Lynch 45 JPMorgan Chase 25 Wells Fargo 25 Goldman Sachs 10 Morgan Stanley 10 U.S. Bancorp 6.6 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 2.5 State Street Corp 2.5 Source: U.S. Treasury

4 USA

5 Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

6 Core inflation falling Japanese consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Headline inflation Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

7 ECB interest rate and Inflation Eurozone consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Headline inflation ECB Interest rate Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

8 Japanese exports to China In Billion Yen Exports to China (RHS) Total exports, excluding China (lhs) Source: Thomson/Datastream

9 Unemployment close to 2003 Level Percentage of labor force 5.5 Unemployment rate Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream

10

11 Euro Area Q1- Sharply lower as stock building turns negative growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports Source: Eurostat

12 Leading indicators for Europe lag those for the OECD OECD composite leading indicators OECD Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

13 Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

14 Japanese Industrial Production Volume Index, 2005 = Industrial Production Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream

15 European unemployment begins to pick up quickly on soft economy number of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] Unemployment rate [R] # of unemployed [L] Source: Eurostat.

16 German factory orders moving towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar domestic orders Total export orders Source: Bundesbank.

17 Industrial production

18 OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income OECD countries Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

19 Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception) industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) East Asia Latin America South Asia Europe and Central Asia Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

20 NIEs and Thailand record positve monthly IP gains industrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) Thailand Korea Hong Kong (SAR, China) Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

21 International trade

22 Pace of decline in trade is easing on a momentum basis goods exports, nominal, qtr/qtr ch% (saar) Developing Countries Source: Thomson/Datastream

23 Oil prices

24 $/bbl Crude oil prices rise on OPEC production cuts OPEC Production [R] mb/d Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

25 World Oil Consumption Growth (mb/d y/y) OECD Non-OECD Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

26 M bbl U.S. crude oil stocks rise on weak demand 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

27 Non-oil commodity prices

28 (2000=100) Food prices decline in March on weak demand Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

29 $/ton Copper prices rebound on falling stocks Copper price 000 tons LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

30 Consumption Growth (% y/y) Aluminum Copper Crude Oil World China World China World China average H H Q Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

31 International Finance

32 Capital flows down by two-thirds from first-quarter 2008 levels Gross capital flows to emerging markets $ billion Q1 Total Q1 Total Jan Feb Mar Q1 Total Bonds Banks Equity Lat. America Bonds E. Europe Bonds Asia Bonds Others Source: DECPG Finance Team.

33 Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 Total returns yr to date in local currency, % MSCI Developed MSCI EM MSCI BRIC EM BIG Developed HY bond *as of April 17th Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream

34 Volume of EM IPOs has come to a standstill since September 2008 capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] Capital raised [L] # of deals [R] Source: Dealogic

35 Currencies

36 Focus

37 The External Environment for Developing Countries April 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group