Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
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- Marjory Pierce
- 5 years ago
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1 Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand Global Alternatives Thai REITs Global REITs View Positive on Thai equities The economy and earnings growth are improving. Government stimulus and foreign capital inflow support the investment. Neutral on Global equities Earnings and economies are improving. Neutral on U.S. market due to the high valuation after strong rise. Neutral on Europe market owing to uncertainty of Banking sector from the risk of Brexit. Negative on Japan equities Risk of deflation persists though the economy is recovering from global economic recovery. Positive on Asia equities The economy and corporate earnings are improving as well as foreign capital flow. The cyclical sectors come back to grow strongly. View Neutral on Thai bonds Focus on short term bond due to the risk of rising Fed Fund rate. Negative on global bonds the negative or low interest rates in several countries generate low payoff and the risk of rising Fed Fund rate. U.S. high yield may be affected negatively by U.S. Tax Reform Bill. View Neutral on Thai REITs The dividend income is relatively attractive. Thai interest rate is expected to stay low though there is the risk of the rising U.S. interest rate. Negative on global REITs from the risk of the increase in Fed Fund rate. Gold Negative on gold The investment return of gold is expected to underperform the equities. Demand for safe-haven asset is likely to decrease due to the improving global economy. Disclaimer: This document is produced based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed. The statements or expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration to use as information for investment and/or buying insurance. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, insurance and products. The use of any information shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. The user should carefully read details in the prospectus before making investment decision, in the factsheet and insurance policy before buying insurance, and in the products factsheet. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 1
2 return in THB Market Close Range 1 Year % 3Month % YTD % 1Year % 3Year % 5Year 30- (Low-High) Annualized Equities SET 1, SET50 1, MSCI All Country MSCI Healthcare MSCI Technology US-S&P500 2, Europe 3, Japan 1, MSCI Asia ex Japan China H Share 11, MSCI India MSCI ASEAN REITS Thai REITS Global REITS Commodities GOLD (USD) 1, GOLD (BAHT) 19, OIL-WTI Bond Market Thai BMA Government JP Morgan Global Bond Interest Rate % (basis point) Thai 2 Year Thai 10 Year US 2 Year US 10 Year Foreign Exchange THB/USD THB/EURO THB/100Yen EURO/USD (3.9) Yen/USD (11.3) Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 2
3 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Month 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 15Year 20Year 25Year 30Year Fixed Income Market: Thai bond yield is stabilized but the global bond yields kept rising View: Neutral Figure 1: Thai Bond Yield Curve Current Thai Yield Curve End-2016 Figure 2: Thai inflation will be below target by Thai Inflation YoY Market movement in Quarter 1 Thai bond yield decreased slightly in the first quarter of 2018 especially the medium-term yields due to the low inflation on domestic market supporting the low policy rate; nonetheless, the increase in the Fed Fund rate in March as expected and the Federal Reserve s forecast for three rate hikes this year with the Fed s balance sheet unwinding plan as well as European Central Bank plan to taper QE this year and to normalize the negative policy rate next year pushed the global bond yields rise in the first quarter. Investment View We have neutral view on Thai fixed income. Bank of Thailand is expected to keep the policy rate on hold at 1.5%, mitigating the risk of the rising bond yield from the rising U.S. Fed Fund rate and QE tapering in Europe. We have Negative view on global fixed income from rising interest rate environment in U.S. and Europe even though inflations in many countries are some-what below the central bank targets and have been rising slowly Economic Forecast Figure 3: U.S. bond yields will be flattening 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% Current Yield vs Yield from Fed Forecast Current Bond Yield and Federal Reserve Forecast Yield end2018 The major risks on bond markets include the ongoing economic recovery in Thailand, the uncertainties of monetary policies in U.S., Europe and Japan, and the default risk in the high-yield market. Recommendation For the short-term investment, we recommend to invest in money market fund and short-term deposit. For the medium-to-long term investment horizon, we recommend investing in Thai corporate bonds due to attractive credit spread and the risk of investment tax on fixed income in the coming months. Recommend underweight on global bond and high yield due to the risk of rising rate and the U.S. tax reform bill. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 3
4 Thai Equities: Improving economy and earnings with risk trade war View: Overweight Figure 4: Thai equities market movement 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 Figure 5: Thai earnings are back on upward revision 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% SET Index Figure 6: Risk of trade war between U.S. and China Source: Ministry of Commerce Earning Revision 3Month Revision Target Consensus Index 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 Market movement in Quarter 1 Thai equities kept a strong increase in the first quarter led by the energy, petrochemicals, retails, and healthcare sectors. Material sector changed a little due to the domestic cement price decrease. The main driver of market s increase is the better outlook of corporate earnings and upgraded economic growth driven by export and tourism sectors. Nonetheless, the fierce competition on digital businesses, many banks started free transaction fee on digital platform; therefore, the banking sectors led to the decline in the first quarter. Investment View We have positive view on Thai equities due to the better-than-expected growth on Thai economy which supports the rising earnings revision in Market gets the support from the strong demand in Asia economy and government spending on infrastructure investment. Low global interest rates, especially Europe and Japan, are likely to support foreign capital reversal into Asia and Thailand in Lastly, the institutional investors play a major role on the capital market from the gaining popularity on the asset allocation idea. The risks on Thai equities are the uncertainties of Trump s policies on trade restriction likely to ignite the trade war and the uncertainties of market during the rising U.S. interest rate which is expected to be raised by three times in The credit risks in emerging market and Chinese corporate debt could derail the market. Recommendation Recommend overweight on Thai equities on the domestic sectors related to consumption and investment. The risk of trade war would affect Thai market in the short term. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 4
5 Euro area World US Emerging Asia Emerging Europe Middle East & Africa ASEAN Latin America China Global Equities: Rising volatilities after concern over trade war between U.S. and China View: Neutral Figure 7: Global equities market movement MSCI World Target Consensus Figure 8: Market expects the rising risk ahead Impled Volatilities US China Europe Japan Figure 9: Effect of U.S.-China trade war on GDP % GDP Effect from China-U.S. Trade Conflict Market movement in Quarter 1 Global equities decreased in the first quarter, led by U.S., Japan and European markets due to the concern over trade restriction of U.S. to global market and the risk of trade war between U.S. and China. Telecom, Financial, Consumer, and Energy sectors led to the decline from concern on slowdown of global economy from trade conflict, affecting negatively on earnings. Technology sectors decreased sharply at the end of the quarter after concern the privacy failure of Facebook and Trump s policy to intervene the online and internet businesses. Investment View We have neutral view on global equities, supported by the improvement in economic and earnings in Many analysts have upgraded their forecasts of economy and corporate earnings. Interest rates remain low and negative in Europe and Japan; supporting the shifts of money market into equities. Trump s economic policies would support the stronger economy and the investment. Nevertheless, global equities have the major risks on Brexit which will take place in 2020 and delay on Trump s economic policies as well as the Fintech bubbles especially Bitcoin. Lastly, MiFID II, new European regulation to promote the investor protection and investment transparency, which is effective in 2018, would be the risk. U.S. unfavorable trade policy on China could ignite the trade war and could aggravate the market. Recommendation We are neutral on global equities. We recommend accumulating global equities during the downturn. The risk of trade war could significantly affect the global equities Source: IMF GDP Effect from China-U.S. Trade Change by 1%. especially U.S. market and global technology sectors. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 5
6 Indonesia Vietnam Korea India Philippines Malaysia Japan Thailand Hong Kong Singapore China Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Asia Equities: Asian equities declined from trade war concern Figure 10: Asia equities market movement MSCI Asia ex Japan Target Consensus Figure 11: Asian policy rate turns the rising trend China inflation Korea inflation Thailand inflation Asia Inflation India Inflation (RHS) Taiwan inflation Figure 12: Effect of U.S.-China trade war on Asian export % Export Effect of China-U.S. Trade change Source: IMF Effect from China-U.S. Trade Change by 1% 0.7 View: Overweight Market movement in Quarter 1 Asia equities were on sideway in the first quarter. Mainland Chinese, India and Korea markets led to the decline owing to the concern over trade restriction of U.S. to global market and the risk of trade war between U.S. and China. This factor also caused the decline in Asian technology sector. ASEAN markets, especially Thailand and Malaysia rose from the expectation of political improvement from the coming elections while Indonesia and Philippines markets decreased from foreign outflows due to concern the political instability. Investment View We have positive outlook on Asian equities. The foreign capital flow is expected to increase in 2018 though it has declined since the second half of 2017 thanks to low interest rates environment. Asian investment is improving resulting from the One-Belt, One-Road project. Therefore, earnings and the economy would continue its resilience. Asia s equities have four major risks. Firstly, high Chinese corporate debt nearly at 200% of GDP has heightened the credit risk. Secondly, Trump s policy on trade restriction would create the trade war between U.S. and China and negatively impact the markets. The risk of rising U.S. rate could deteriorate foreign capital that has flowed into Asia. Finally, geopolitical risk from and Korea Peninsula may affect the investor confidence negatively. Recommendation We recommend overweight on Asia especially China equities due to recovery on economy and corporate earnings. The major risk is Trade war between U.S. and China which could affect negatively on technology companies in China, Korea and Taiwan. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 6
7 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Japan Equities: Concern over U.S. trade restriction and Yen appreciation View: Underweight Figure 13: Japanese equities market movement 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 TOPIX Target Consensus Figure 14: Bank of Japan reduced the asset purchase Billion Yen 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Figure 15: Foreigners have less appetite on Japanese market BOJ Asset Size YoY M. USD Foreign inflow 12 months Market movement in Quarter 1 Japanese equities decreased in the first quarter mainly due to the concern over trade restriction from US on steel and aluminum as well as Yen appreciation. Technology, Financials, Consumer products, Materials and Energy declined due to risk of economic slowdown and privacy risk of Facebook as well as trade restriction of US on China technology products. This would affect Japanese suppliers of Chinese IT products. The defensive sector including Utility and Healthcare increased. Investment View We have negative view on Japan s equities due to the demographic problem of aging population that would lead to the decline in labor force and population. Delay on the structural reforms, which are the plans on increasing in labor force and stimulating the economy, is the major setback on the economy. The government is facing high public debt, which is the risk for an increase in tax rate in the near future. Nevertheless, Japanese market stands the benefit from the ongoing QE policy and negative interest rate together with short-term improvement in the economy from rising Asia demand, though the Bank of Japan already reduced the asset purchases from declining in asset balance, causing Yen appreciation. Trump s trade restriction policy would affect Japanese economy significantly from export dependence on U.S. market. Recommendation We recommend underweight on Japanese equites. The market is facing major risks including the deflation risk, aging population, high public debts and Yen uncertainty that cause the market volatility. Trade war risk could significantly affect Japanese economy and equities. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 7
8 Feb-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Rising U.S. and European bond yields are the risk for global REITs View: Neutral Figure 16: Thai and global REITs performance (One year) (5) (10) (15) REITs Performance (One Year) Thai Global Figure 17: Thai and global REITs dividend yield REITs Payout Return Thai REITs: Neutral Thai REITs was higher in the first quarter due to the attractiveness of the REITs dividend yield and the stable Thai bond yields. Low inflation in domestic market supports the low policy rate in The risk of rising global bond yield is subdued from Fed rate hike plan as the market forecast with three rate hikes this year. We have neutral view on Thai REITs. The supporting factor is the attractive dividend yield at around 6% from 12-months trailing dividend yield while the risk factors are the rising U.S. interest rate and valuation concern in some REITs after strong rally. We recommend investing in REITs for long term investment to receive dividend income but we are cautious on the short-term investment from the capital loss from risk of rising U.S. interest rate. The trade war is limited affecting on Thai REITs Thai REITs Global REITs Figure 18: Rising European real yields into positive , Real yield is from real yield of 10 year treasuries of four major countries in Eurozone Global REITs: Underweight Global REITs declined sharply in the first quarter due to the rising global bond yield driven by the concern over the plan of Federal Reserve to raise the policy rate after new Fed chairman and the unwinding balance sheet plan. Investors also concerned less accommodative policies of European Central Bank on QE tapering this year and normalization of the policy rate next year. This would affect negatively on U.S. and European REITs. We have negative view on global REITs due to its lower dividend yield than Thai one. The risks of the investment are from the rising interest rate under this low interest rate condition and risk of slowdown in global properties in U.S., Europe and Japan after the strong rise in prices and activities in the past. We recommend underweighting global REITs and avoiding the investment. Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 8
9 Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-16 USD/Barrel USD/Ounce Commodities: Gold rose from risk of trade war and Dollar depreciation View: Underweight Figure 19: Gold price movement Gold Price Figure 20: Oil price movement WTI Crude Oil Price Figure 21: Rising demand on gold from high global financial risk Bank Spread Gold: Underweight Gold rose in the first quarter due to the rising global liquidity trade war concern and the decline in U.S. dollar. Investors have higher appetite on the Gold ETF; although the market raised the global economic expansion and rising bond yields from aggressive views of Fed meeting to raise more rates in 2019 and 2020 as well as the Mario Draghi, President of European Central Bank, commented to decrease the monetary easing policies, Nevertheless, TED spread, which is the indicator to measure the global financial risk, increased from the concern of trade war between U.S. and China, LIBOR credibility risk as reference rate and rising US dollar demand outside U.S. market. We have negative view on gold due to the rising U.S. interest rate and less monetary stimulus from Europe. The concerns on equities volatilities are receding; therefore, investors are willing to shift out of safe-haven assets such as gold to the riskier assets on equities. Trade war risk could benefit Gold from safe-haven investment demand. Oil: Underweight Crude oil increased in the first quarter due to the concern about Middle-East geopolitical risk and OPEC and Russia cooperation to control the oil market in the long term though the rising U.S. crude production to historical level is the threat for the market TED Spread OIS Spread We have negative view on Oil due to an increase in Non-OPEC production, especially U.S.; therefore, recommend avoiding crude oil investment. Oil would negatively affect from trade war, which could escalate the global trade and economy, and global crude demand; Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 9
10 Global and Thai Economic Data Real GDP (YoY%) World US Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Japan Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Central Bank Policy Rate US Eurozone United Kingdom Japan Asia China India Thailand Currency Forecast EURO/USD USD/GBP JPY/USD CNY/USD INR/USD THB/USD Economic Forecast Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 10
11 Dec-14 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 6Month 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 15Year 20Year 25Year 30Year Global and Thai Fixed Income Market Thai Yield Curve Current Thai Term Spread End Maturity 3Month Month Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Thai Credit Spread Average Y-2Y 10Y-2Y BBB Rating A Rating AA Rating Global Policy Rate US Europe UK Japan 6 1 Asia Policy Rate Thailand Philippines India Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 11
12 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Thai Equities Market Summary Indicator Price-to-Earning ratio (P/E) Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) Return on Dividend Performance (%) Index Equity Yield 3Month 6Month 1Year YTD SET 1, SET50 1, MSCI Thailand ENERGY 26, BANKING INFO & TECH COMMERCE 47, TRANSPORT PROPERTY MATERIAL 12, FOOD 12, HEALTH CARE 5, PETROCHEM 1, ,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 SET Index P/E Band Target Consensus PETROCHEM HEALTH CARE FOOD MATERIAL PROPERTY TRANSPORT COMMERCE INFO & TECH BANKING ENERGY SET50 SET 1 Year by Sector Volatility 1 Year Months Earnings Revision PETROCHEM HEALTH CARE FOOD MATERIAL PROPERTY TRANSPORT COMMERCE INFO & TECH BANKING ENERGY SET50 SET Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 12
13 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Global Equities Market Summary Indicator Price-to-Earning ratio (P/E) Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) Return on Dividend Performance (%) Index Equity Yield 3Month 6Month 1Year YTD Volatility 1 Year World IT Financials Healthcare Consumer Discretionary Industrials Consumer Staple Energy Materials Utility Telecom Year by Sector Telecom Materials Consumer Staple Industrials Consumer Discretionary Healthcare Financials MSCI World Target Consensus Utility Energy IT World P/E Band 3Months Earnings Revision Telecom Utility Materials Energy Consumer Staple Industrials Consumer Discretionary Healthcare Financials IT World Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 13
14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 U.S. Equities Market Summary Indicator Price-to-Earning ratio (P/E) Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) Return on Performance (%) Index Equity Dividend Yield 3Month 6Month 1Year YTD Volatility 1 Year USA-S&P500 2, Info Tech 1, Financials Healthcare Consumer Discretion Industrial Consumer Staple Energy Materials Utility Telecom ,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 Telecom Utility Materials Energy Consumer Staple Industrial Consumer Discretion Healthcare Financials 1Year by Sector Info Tech USA-S&P500 S&P 500 Target Consensus ,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 P/E Band Telecom Utility Materials Energy Consumer Staple Industrial Consumer Discretion Healthcare Financials Info Tech USA-S&P500 3Months Earnings Revision Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 14
15 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Europe Equities Market Summary Indicator Price-to-Earning ratio (P/E) Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) Return on Dividend Performance (%) Index Equity Yield 3Month 6Month 1Year YTD Volatility 1 Year EURO-STOXX50 3, IT 1, Financials Healthcare 1, Consumer Discretionary 1, Industrials 2, Consumer Staple 3, Energy 1, Materials 2, Utility 1, Telecom 1, ,100 1Year by Sector 4,000 Telecom 3,900 Utility 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 Materials Energy Consumer Staple Industrials Consumer Discretionary Healthcare Financials IT EURO-STOXX50 EURO STOXX50 Target Consensus ,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 P/E Band 3Months Earnings Revision Telecom Utility Materials Energy Consumer Staple Industrials Consumer Discretionary Healthcare 2,500 Financials IT 2,000 EURO-STOXX Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 15
16 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Asia ex Japan Equities Market Summary Indicator Price-to-Earning ratio (P/E) Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) Performance (%) Index Return on Equity Dividend Yield 3Month 6Month 1Year YTD Volatility 1 Year MSCI Asia x JP China H-Share 11, China A-share 3, India 10, Korea 2, Taiwan 10, Hong Kong 30, ASEAN Thailand 1, Malaysia 1, Phillipines 7, Singapore 3, Indonesia 6, Vietnam 1, Vietnam Indonesia Singapore Phillipines Malaysia Thailand ASEAN Hong Kong Taiwan Korea India China A-share China H-Share MSCI Asia x JP 1Year by Country MSCI Asia ex Japan Target Consensus , P/E Band 3Months Earnings Revision Vietnam Indonesia Singapore Phillipines Malaysia Thailand ASEAN Hong Kong Taiwan Korea India China A-share China H-Share MSCI Asia x JP Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 16
17 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Japanese Equities Market Summary Indicator Price-to-Earning ratio (P/E) Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) Return on Dividend Performance (%) Index Equity Yield 3Month 6Month 1Year YTD Volatility 1 Year Japan-TOPIX 1, IT Financials Healthcare Consumer Discretionary Industrials Consumer Staple Energy Materials Utility Telecom ,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 Telecom Utility Materials Energy Consumer Staple 1Year by Sector 1,600 Industrials 1,500 Consumer 1,400 Healthcare Financials IT Japan-TOPIX TOPIX Target Consensus ,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 PE Band 3Months Earnings Revision Telecom Utility Materials Energy Consumer Staple Industrials Consumer Discretionary 1,200 Healthcare 1,000 Financials IT 800 Japan-TOPIX Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 17
18 Disclaimer This document is produced based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed. The statements or expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration to use as information for investment and/or buying insurance. Expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, insurance and products. The use of any information shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user. The user should carefully read details in the prospectus before making investment decision, in the factsheet and insurance policy before buying insurance, and in the products factsheet. Explanation on Investment Outlook Outlook Positive Neutral Negative Details Positive on the investment over one year forward with risk adjusted Neutral on the investment over one year forward with risk adjusted Negative on the investment over one year forward with risk adjusted Explanation on Recommendation Recommendation Overweight Neutral Underweight Overweight over Strategic Portfolio Neutral on Strategic Portfolio Underweight over Strategic Portfolio Details Please see Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 18
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