Investment Challenges & Opportunities in the Current Environment
|
|
- Clarissa Clarke
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Investment Challenges & Opportunities in the Current Environment John Augustine, CFA Chief Economic & Market Strategist Fifth Third Bank March 213 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
2 Fifth Third Bank Overview (12/31/12) Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio Operates four main businesses: Commercial Banking, Branch Banking, Consumer Lending, Investment Advisors 15 affiliates across the Midwest and Southeast United States Missouri Illinois Michigan Indiana Ohio West Virginia Pennsylvania 1,325 banking centers; 2,415 ATMs $122 billion in bank assets Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina $38 billion in custody assets under care Georgia $27 billion in managed assets for individuals, corporations and not-for-profit organizations Florida Listed on NASDAQ, Ticker: FITB Data as of 2Q12 unless noted otherwise; ranked among U.S. commercial banks * Ranking of U.S. banks as of 8/28/212 2 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
3 1) Macro Environment in 11 Slides 3 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
4 #1 Global Economy Focus Trillion Dollar Club Update Global GDP = $69.9 trillion 213 GDP growth estimate (IMF) = 3.5% $14, $7,318 $5, $3,6 $2,773 $2,476 $2,445 $2,193 $1,857 $1,847 $1,736 $1,476 $1,379 $1,153 $1,116 2.% 8.2% 1.2%.6%.3% 3.5% 1.% -1.% 3.7% 5.9% 1.8% -1.5% 3.1% 3.5% 1.6% Source = GDP data are 9/12 or 12/12 numbers from Bloomberg; 213 GDP growth estimates from IMF (1/13) 4 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
5 #2 Global Demographic Focus US is the youngest of the Developed Economies 5 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
6 #3 Global Economy Focus LEI s are hooking-up YoY Top 1 Economies - YoY LEI Trends India Brazil Japan US UK Germany China France Russia Italy '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 (% 1YR) Leading Index Total, 1996=1, SA - United States (% 1YR) Leading Index Total, 1996=1 - China, Peoples Rep Of Deu Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Germany (% 1YR) Leading Index, Total Composite, 25=1 - Japan Gbr Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - United Kingdom Bra Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Brazil Fra Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - France Ita Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Italy Ind Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - India Rus Cli Leading Indicator Trend Restored, Growth Rate Same Period Previous Year, Sa, % - Russia -3 6 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
7 #4 Global Stock Market US leading and breaking above the range MSCI US vs. MSCI World ex US 6 2, MSCI US (R) MSCI World ex-us (L) 2, , , '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 MSCI AC World ex USA - Total Return Index (Left) MSCI US Investable Market (25) - Total Return Index (Right) 7 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
8 #5 Global G-4 Currency Focus Pound and Yen trade places; Euro stays weak Select Currency Values to US Dollar Yen (R) Pound (L) Euro (L) Lines moving lower = stronger US Dollar 15.6 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 FX Rate - Spot Mid - US Dollar per Euro (Right) FX Rate - Spot Mid - Japanese Yen per US Dollar (Left) FX Rate - Spot Mid - US Dollar per British Pounds (Right) 16 8 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
9 #6 US Economic Focus GDP growth expectations are mixed Real GDP Annualized v s. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) YoY Trend year average '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Gross Domestic Product, Real %Chg P/P - United States (% 1YR) Leading Index Total, 24=1, SA - United States (AVG) Gross Domestic Product, Real %Chg P/P - United States Actual annualized Real GDP growth*: 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% Fifth Third estimate: Bloomberg consensus: Federal Reserve: IMF: * Source = Moody s economy.com Projections = Bloomberg; IMF; Federal Reserve 9 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
10 #7 US Economic Focus Economic basics narrowing, but still positive YoY C + E + I + G Consumption Investment Ex ports Government '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 (% 1YR) Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Total Expenditures, Bil. $, Saar - United States (% 1YR) Gross Private Domestic Investment, Bil. Chained 25 $, Saar - United States (% 1YR) Net Exports Of Goods & Services, Exports, Bil. Chained 25 $, Saar - United States (% 1YR) Personal Consumption Expenditures, Bil. $, Saar - United States -3 1 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
11 #8 US Federal Government Focus Private Sector slowing; Government growing Federal Government vs. GDP Growth Federal Govt % of GDP Nominal GDP - YoY % change 5-5 '47 '49 '51 '53 '55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '1 '3 '5 '7 '9 '11 (% 1YR) Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $, Saar - United States (Federal Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Current Expenditures, Bil. $, SAAR - United States / Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $, SAAR - United States) * Trendline: Linear Trendline: Linear Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
12 #9 US Fiscal Policy Focus Kicking the can down the road US Fiscal Balances and Interest Cost 18, 16, 14, Total Debt (L) Ex penditures (R) 4,5 4, 3,5 12, 1, Receipts (R) 3, 2,5 8, 2, 6, 1,5 4, 1, 2, '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Interest on Public Debt Federal Debt, Total Public Debt Outstanding - United States / 1 (Left) Federal Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Current Expenditures, Bil. $, Saar - United States (Right) Federal Govt Current Receipts & Expenditures, Current Receipts, Bil. $, Saar - United States (Right) (MOV 1Y) Federal Budget, Monthly Treasury Statement, Fiscal Year to Date, Outlays, Dep. of the Treasury, Interest on the Public Debt, Millions of USD - U 5 12 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
13 #1 US Monetary Policy Focus Can the Fed normalize and not affect the economy? Federal Reserve Balance Sheet ($ billions) and Target Rate 6 5 Fed Balance Sheet 3,5 3, Bank Deposits with Fed Treasuries Mortgage Bonds 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 1 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 H.4.1- Liabilities of All Federal Reserve Banks, Deposits, Depository Institutions (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) H.4.1- Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks, Total Assets (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) H.4.1- Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks, U.S. Treasury (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) H.4.1- Assets of All Federal Reserve Banks, Mortgage-backed Securities (Mil $) - United States / 1 (Right) US Federal Funds Target Rate - Yield (Left) Fed Funds Rate (L) 5 13 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
14 #11 US Inflation Focus Will it be inflation or deflation??? Headline CPI (% YOY) '13 '17 '21 '25 '29 '33 '37 '41 '45 '49 '53 '57 '61 '65 '69 '73 '77 '81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '1 '5 '9 (% 1YR) CPI All items, Percent, Chg Y/Y - United States [Last: 1.98] (AVG, % 1YR) CPI All items, Percent, Chg Y/Y - United States [Last: 3.35] Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
15 2) Market Environment in 1 Slides 15 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
16 #1 US Market Relationships Gold/Stocks/1yr Treasury yield in same direction S&P 5 vs. Gold vs. 1-year Treasury Yield (inverted) 2, 1, Gold S&P 5 1yr Yield '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '1 '3 '5 '7 '9 '11 Standard & Poors 5 Composite Index, Price Return, Close - United States (Left) Precious Metals Gold Spot, USD, Close - World (Left) US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield (Right) Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
17 #2 US Stock Market (S&P 5) Third period of being stuck S&P 5 Price Index 3 2, Moves higher on combination of: monetary & fiscal policy normalization and private sector growth 6 years 2, 1, , years years WWII Victory Volcker rate hikes (inflation halted); Reagan tax cuts; Baby Boomers consumerism '28 '31 '34 '37 '4 '43 '46 '49 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '7 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 ' '3 '6 '9 '12 Standard & Poors 5 Composite Index, Price Return, Close - United States 17 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
18 #3 US Stock Market (S&P 5) (EPS x PE Multiple) + DPS = Total Return Basis S&P 5 Index - Trailing 12-month PE Multiple vs. EPS vs. DPS EPS (L) DPS (R) Avg PE PE Multiple (R) '54 '57 '6 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '9 '93 '96 '99 '2 '5 '8 '11 S&P 5 - Index Price Level / AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) [Max: 14.3, Min: 2.7, L (AVG) AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) [Max: 16.36, Min: 16.36, Last: 16.36] (Right) AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) [Max: 31.13, Min: 6.84, Last: 15.38] (Right) S&P 5 - Dividends per Share [Max: 34.92, Min: 12.1, Last: 34.92] (Right) 5 18 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
19 #4 US Stock Market (S&P 5) What will drive future profit growth? S&P 5 - Revenues and Margins 1,2 1,1 1, S&P 5 - Sales per Share (Left) S&P 5 - Gross Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Operating Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Net Margin (Right) Reduce share count >>>> 5 6 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 S&P 5 - Net Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Operating Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Gross Margin (Right) S&P 5 - Sales per Share (Left) 19 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
20 #5 US Bond Market Falling for 3-years; when will yields reverse higher? 1-year and 3-month Treasury Yields yr Treasury 3-month T-Bill '53 '56 '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '8 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '1 '4 '7 '1 Government Benchmarks 1 year, Yield, Percent, Close - United States US Benchmark Bond - 3 Month - Yield 2 2 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
21 #6 US Bond Market Can the Fed keep the US bond market sedated? 1-year Treasury Yield vs. Nominal GDP Trend '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 (% 1YR) Gross Domestic Product, Bil. $, Saar - United States US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
22 #7 US Bond Market Yield spreads not signaling economic risk Corporate Yield Spreads HY Avg 5 High Yield '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield - Master II - Yield To Worst - US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield iboxx USD Corporates A Rated - Benchmark Spread - Bond / 1 (AVG) iboxx USD Corporates A Rated - Benchmark Spread - Bond / 1 (AVG) BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield - Master II - Yield To Worst - US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield 'A' Avg A 22 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
23 #8 Stock/Bond Relative Valuation Abnormal stock/bond relationship exists Fed Model S&P 5 Earnings Yield % avg. annual 4.4% avg. return annual return '54 '57 '6 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '9 '93 '96 '99 '2 '5 '8 '11 23 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved 1-year Treasury Yield AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[SP5_PE],SPEC_ID[SP5:FMA_PE(LTM,'PORTAGG','MEANR')]) * 1 [Max: 14.63, Min: 3.21, Last: 6.5] US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield [Max: 15.84, Min: 1.39, Last: 2.] 2
24 #9 Stock/Bond Income Relationship Dividend yield above 1-year Treasury S&P 5 Dividend Yield vs. 1-year Treasury Yield S&P 5 1yr Treasury 4 2 '52 '55 '58 '61 '64 '67 '7 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 ' '3 '6 '9 '12 S&P 5 Dividend Yield - Annual Data 1925 US Benchmark Bond - 1 Year - Yield 24 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
25 #1 US Dollar Index* vs. Price of Gold Gold is expensive, but a new reserve currency Gold vs. Dollar Index* 18 2, 16 Gold (R) 1,8 1,6 14 1,4 1, Gold Trend Dollar Trend DXY (L) 1, '72 '74 '76 '78 '8 '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 AVAIL(ECON_CLIENT[DXY.Z_HISTORIC],SPEC_ID[DXY.Z:FG_PRICE]) (Right) Trendline: Linear Gold (NYM $/ozt) Continuous Contract - Futures Price Close (Left) Trendline: Linear * Dollar Index = Euro = 57%; Yen = 14%; Pound = 12%; Canadian Dollar = 9%; Swedish Krona = 4%; Swiss Franc = 4% 25 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
26 3) Investment Management Observations 26 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
27 Broad Observations in Investment Management 1. Government policy issues will be a continuing source of challenge for the decade. Business and Investors will need to manage through this risk. 2. Sovereign bonds are no longer risk-free. Diversify between creditor & debtor nations. Diversify municipal bonds between various US states. 3. There will be an eventual lift in interest rates and/or inflation. Prepare to be nimble in the bond market by utilizing individual bonds where possible. 4. There will be an eventual rotation from return of principal back to return on principal. It will take monetary & fiscal policy normalization, private/public sector peace, sustained GDP growth, sustained consumer confidence. 5. Stocks are the new Bonds; Cash is no longer an investment asset class. Stocks have lower valuations and higher current income yields. Time if currently the friend of stocks and the enemy of bonds. 6. Real Assets and Absolute Return Funds are wealth defenders against policy errors. Real Assets (commodities, real estate, gold) defend against monetary policy errors causing inflation and/or currency declines. Absolute Return defends against fiscal policy errors affecting economic activity, earnings and/or sovereign debt risk. 27 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
28 Disclosures and Disclaimers The opinions expressed herein are those of Fifth Third Bank, Investment Advisors Division, and may not actually come to pass. This information is current as of the date of the presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Prior to making any financial or investment decision, you should assess, or seek advice from a professional regarding, whether any particular transaction is relevant or appropriate to your individual circumstances. Index performance is used throughout this presentation to illustrate historical market trends and performance. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur investment management fees. An investor is unable to invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fifth Third Asset Management, Inc (FTAM) is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp and an affiliated company with Fifth Third Bank Investment Advisors division. Fifth Third Bank provides access to investments and investment services through various subsidiaries, including Fifth Third Securities. Fifth Third Securities is the trade name used by Fifth Third Securities, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, a registered brokerdealer and a registered investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Securities and investments offered through Fifth Third Securities, Inc. and insurance products: Are Not FDIC Insured Offer No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Are Not Insured By Any Federal Government Agency Are Not A Deposit Insurance products made available through Fifth Third Insurance Agency, Inc. 28 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved
Economic, Business & Markets Focus on Investors
1//13 Economic, Business & Markets Focus on Investors John Augustine, CFA Chief Economic & Market Strategist Fifth Third Bank November 13 Fifth Third Bank All Rights Reserved Fifth Third Bank Overview
More informationFinancial Markets Update, Outlook
Financial Markets Update, Outlook and Challenges John Augustine, CFA Chief Investment Strategist Fifth Third Private Bank September, 2009 Managed Assets Mix as of 7/31/09 - $25.1 billion Fifth Third Asset
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 19 APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China
More informationWEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, Index definitions available upon request. 1 of 5. Total Return (%)
WEEKLY MARKET FLASH DATA AS OF FEBRUARY 2, 2018 U.S. Equity Index Level 1 Week MTD QTD YTD 1 Year Global Equity USD 1 Week MTD QTD YTD 1 Year S&P 500 2,762 (3.81) (2.16) 3.44 3.44 23.54 DJIA 25,521 (4.11)
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More information[ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » U.S. started the process to draft plans on a further $200 billion in Chinese
July 16, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» U.S. started the process to draft plans on a further $200 billion in Chinese imports after tensions between the two largest economies in the world intensified,
More informationDECEMBER 14, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
DECEMBER 14, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist There was plenty of economic data, but investors remained focused on trade policy and Brexit uncertainty. Intraday volatility
More informationInvestment Research Team Update
Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationGlobal financial pandemic
Global financial pandemic Dr. Sherry Cooper Global Economic Strategist & Executive Vice President BMO Financial Group 1-8-13- www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics November, 8 BMO Capital Markets Financial
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 26, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Reserve officials see the economic growth and the acceleration of inflation as a good signal to continue to raise interest rate gradually over
More informationDecember 2014 Economic Outlook. All data as of November 30, 2014 unless otherwise noted.
December 2014 Economic Outlook All data as of November 30, 2014 unless otherwise noted. -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Economic Outlook and Capital Markets Slow growth has characterized the current
More informationQ2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015
Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins
More information2016 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents
216 Investment Outlook: Crosscurrents January 13, 216 MODERATED BY: Celia Dallas Chief Investment Strategist Wade O Brien Managing Director, Global Investment Research Christopher Hunter Managing Director,
More informationVantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review
Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the
More informationBUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC P.O. Box 1206 241 3 rd Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54495-1206 715-422-0700 buenavistainv@buenavistainv.com
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationMULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationWorcester Business Journal February 2016
Worcester Business Journal February 2016 Karin Kimbrough Head of Macro and Economic Policy, Investment Management & Guidance We re better when we re connected This material was prepared by the Investment
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 12, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» In the early hours of last Friday, U.S Congress approved a major budget deal that opens the door for more increase in defense and non-defense spending
More informationJANUARY 11, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 11, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Fed Chairman Powell continued to signal that monetary policy will remain flexible and that muted inflation readings allow the
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More information2008 Economic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Presented by: Gareth Watson Warren Jestin Vincent Delisle December 7 Economic Outlook Warren Jestin The Global Economic Landscape is Changing Rapidly Gears Down Emerging Powerhouses
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 31, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
More informationQuarterly Market Review. First Quarter 2015
Q1 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 17, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The Federal Reserve (FED) might be
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationAPRIL 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
APRIL 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist The economic data reports were mixed, but generally consistent with moderate growth in the near term. Retail sales rose 1.6% in
More informationPast performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the
Q1 Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
More informationPIMCO: The New Neutral
PIMCO: The New Neutral Philanthropy Summit 2015 Investing in the New Neutral world April 2015 PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508 AFS Licence 246862 Level 19, 363 George St. Sydney, NSW 2000 telephone:
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD. » The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY
August 06, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level in almost a decade. Raising the interest rate is suggesting that inflation continues
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY
July 10, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The minutes of FOMC meeting in June
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY. » Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted
June 11, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKET COMMENTARY» Emerging Market had another unstable week as plunging currencies promoted central bank to act accordingly. The Central Bank of Turky and The Reserve Bank of
More informationFive years into the crisis. Is the world more stable or more unstable? Page 2 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.
Five years into the crisis. Is the world more stable or more unstable? Page 2 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference. % of GDP The Debt Issue in Developed Markets Developed Markets Debt-to-GDP
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationJANUARY 25, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 25, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Investor sentiment continued to bounce between fear and hope. The week began with continued concerns about the global economy
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 22, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The U.S economy and inflation expanded at a Modest to Moderate pace during December 2017, while wages continued to push higher according to the Federal
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationJANUARY 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 18, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Fear and hope. Market participants remained concerned about the partial government shutdown, which has a larger and broader
More informationCalifornia Association of Joint Powers Authorities
California Association of Joint Powers Authorities Economic Update April 28, 2016 Scott Prickett, CTP EVP, Portfolio Strategist CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT info@chandlerasset.com chandlerasset.com 800.317.4747
More informationEconomic Forecast 2018
Economic Forecast 2018 Economic Outlook 2018 Featured Speaker: Daniel Morgan Senior Portfolio Manager This report has been prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to
More informationNOVEMBER 30, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
NOVEMBER 30, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Fed Chairman Powell s comments to the Economic Club of New York were misinterpreted, but that s OK. Most likely, the stock
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationTracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets
Tracking the Growth Catalysts in Emerging Markets September 14, 2016 by Nick Niziolek of Calamos Investments The following is an excerpt of remarks made on August 30, 2016. The majority of the improved
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
October 09, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The storm impacted job report showed
More informationSUPPLEMENT TO THE DIRECT PLAN OFFERING STATEMENT AND PARTICIPATION AGREEMENT DATED SEPTEMBER 8, 2016
SUPPLEMENT TO THE DIRECT PLAN OFFERING STATEMENT AND PARTICIPATION AGREEMENT DATED SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 EFFECTIVE JANUARY 1, 2018 SUMMARY OF SUPPLEMENTAL CHANGES This is the second supplement to the CollegeAdvantage
More informationMarket Review. Third Quarter 2016
Q3 Market Review Third Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review Third Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016
MARKET ENVIRONMENT Second Quarter 2016 Market Environment: U.S. Economy The 2nd quarter was reasonably uneventful and markets were relatively placid until June 23rd, when British voters narrowly approved
More informationChart 1 Productivity of Major Economies
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 Chart 1 Productivity
More informationJune 4, A recap of last week s top economic news and what s to come
A recap of last week s top economic news and what s to come Canada responds with tariffs on U.S. goods Previously set exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada, Mexico and the European Union
More informationEmerging markets the equities perspective. Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price
Emerging markets the equities perspective Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price Audience voting about to begin Proudly supported by our Gold Industry Partner Question What is your fund's weight in Emerging Markets?
More informationPerspective on Economic Expansions
U.S. Economic and Market Outlook: People & Policies Dan Kieffer Director, Equity & Alternative Research Perspective on Economic Expansions Longest Economic Expansions in History United States (4Q 2009
More informationDiversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays
Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays May 2, 2016 by Brad Tank of Neuberger Berman Neither rising rates nor rising defaults would spell the end of opportunistic, diversified fixed income. There
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Update
Economic & Financial Market Update James W. Paulsen, Ph.D., Chief Investment Strategist www.wellscap.com September 2013 WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT is a registered service mark of Wells Capital Management,
More informationDECEMBER 7, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
DECEMBER 7, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Two key issues rattled stock market investors: trade policy and the yield curve. The weekend meeting between President Trump
More informationWEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
December 04, 2017 [ W E E K LY E C O N O M I C C O M M E N TA R Y ] WEEKLY ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The U.S senate passed the long-awaited
More informationst Quarter Review
US Large Cap US Mid Cap US Small Cap International Equity Emerging Markets Real Estate Precious Metals Inflation Cash 10-year Treasury Global Bonds Corporate Bonds High Yield Corp Bonds Intmd-Term Muni
More informationDead Dollar Bull? WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst.
Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Dead Dollar Bull? March 3, 208 Key takeaways» The U.S. dollar has experienced three secular cycles of
More information1Q14 MACRO THEMES MACRO TEAM. Updated for March 19, 2014
1Q14 MACRO THEMES MACRO TEAM Updated for March 19, 2014 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is
More informationDecember 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW
December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationQuarterly Market Review
Quarterly Market Review THEMES FOR THE QUARTER Emerging Markets the Standout in Mixed Q1 Global Equity Returns Developed Markets Positive; Australia and NZ Negative Value Premium Positive in Emerging Markets;
More informationFEBRUARY 15, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
FEBRUARY 15, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Negotiations on trade and the budget remained central, but the economic data also had some impact on the markets. Congress
More informationJanuary Market Review Groundhog Day
Larry Adam, CFA, CIMA CIO Americas & Chief Investment Strategist January Market Review Groundhog Day January 2016 Highlights of the Month: U.S. 4Q15 GDP Slows to Lowest YoY Growth Since 1Q14; ISM Manufacturing
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
More informationPFM Asset Management LLC Monthly Market Update April 2013
PFM Asset Management LLC Monthly Market Update April 2013 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Senior Managing Consultant Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationCity of Winter Springs, Florida
City of Winter Springs, Florida Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended June 30, 2015 Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director Robert Cheddar, CFA, Chief Credit Officer,
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 19, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Last week, Global stock markets witnessed one of their best weeks in almost six years after two consecutive weeks in the red. The last week rally was mainly
More informationECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION
ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and
More informationSovereign Debt Managers Forum
Sovereign Debt Managers Forum Breakout Session 1: Market Dynamics in International Capital Markets for Sovereign Debt By C J P Siriwardena Assistant Governor Central Bank of Sri Lanka 04 December 2014
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2017 Economic overview Further evidence of synchronised global economic improvement was signalled by higher measures of economic activity and company profits, along
More informationSEPTEMBER 2018 Capital Markets Update
SEPTEMBER 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS Non-farm payrolls added 134,000 jobs in September, missing the consensus estimate of 185,000. However, net revisions to the two months prior totaled +87,000
More informationOutlook for 2014 Title 1. David Greene, Pioneer Investments
Outlook for 2014 Title 1 David Greene, Pioneer Investments 2014 A year of Transition Transitioning from fiscal tightening to less austerity. Transitioning from Euro-area recession to growth. Transitioning
More informationWORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher
More informationDECEMBER 21, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
DECEMBER 21, 2018 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Financial markets were expecting a dovish rate hike from the Fed an increase in short-term interest rates and an indication
More information4 th Quarter 2015 Webcast. Global Macro Overview. Presented by. Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research
th Quarter 21 Webcast Global Macro Overview Presented by Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research 2 Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved. The views expressed
More informationMAY 2018 Capital Markets Update
MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were
More informationGlobal Markets Update QNB Economics 19 February 2017
Global Markets Update QNB Economics 19 February 2017 Executive Summary Key Takeaways Yields in advanced economies were stable while local factors dominated emerging market performance The Egyptian pound
More informationSummit Strategies Group
April 0, 205 US Equity: All Cap Russell 000 Index 0.45 5.9 2.26 2.74 6.86 4. 8.68 8.66 Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index 0.46 5.9 2.27 2.67 6.78 4.7 8.78 8.8 US Equity: Large Cap Russell 000 Index
More informationAsset Strategy Consultants. MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017
MARKET ENVIRONMENT First Quarter 2017 Market Environment: Economy Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction. Expectations for lower taxes, reduced regulation, and other pro-growth reforms
More informationJANUARY 4, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist
JANUARY 4, 2019 Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Volatility remained elevated in the first few days of 2019, reflecting renewed concerns about China and the ongoing uncertainties
More informationEconomic Update: Fed Delay Bought Calm. But is it Calm Enough to Hike Rates? 2016 AAM Investment Conference Chris Low FTN Financial Chief Economist
Economic Update: Fed Delay Bought Calm. But is it Calm Enough to Hike Rates? May 2016 2016 AAM Investment Conference Chris Low FTN Financial Chief Economist Executive Summary 1 FOMC recognizes global inflation
More informationBOK Financial U.S. Economic and Market Outlook
BOK Financial U.S. Economic and Market Outlook 2016 Oklahoma Economic Outlook Conference Oklahoma City Tuesday, December 8, 2015 Jim Huntzinger, Chief Investment Officer BOK Financial Corporation Labor
More informationACG Market Review. Second Quarter Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity
ACG Market Review Second Quarter 2018 Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity Equities U.S. equites turn positive for the year backed by strong corporate
More informationGlobal Markets Update QNB Economics 15 October 2017
Global Markets Update QNB Economics 15 October 2017 Executive Summary Key Takeaways US yields fell after inflation came in lower-than-expected; Turkish rates rose after a diplomatic dispute with the US
More informationCopyright 2016 by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association 120 Broadway New York, NY (212)
2016 FACT BOOK 2016 FACT BOOK Produced by SIFMA Research Department Copyright 2016 by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association 120 Broadway New York, NY 10271-0080 (212) 313-1200 research@sifma.org
More informationGlobal Markets Update QNB Economics 7 August 2016
Global Markets Update QNB Economics 7 August 2016 Executive Summary Key Takeaways US yields rose on strong jobs data, raising expectations of possible Federal Reserve action; Saudi rates increased on concerns
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationCanadian Retirement in Today s World
The Title of the presentation Second line if needed Third line if needed Canadian Retirement in Today s World Presentation for Today s date Location of presentation January 20, 2015 Vancouver Global Outlook
More informationEconomic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries
Economic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries January 17, 2017 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important
More informationGAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY October 1 15 GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 15 & 16 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS As companies report third
More informationBank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for April, 2010 and Amounts
Bank of Canada Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets Turnover for April, 2010 and Amounts Outstanding as at June 30, 2010 December 20, 2010 Table
More informationM&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager. November 2015
M&G Emerging Markets Bond Fund Claudia Calich, Fund Manager November 2015 Agenda Macro update & government bonds Emerging market corporate bonds Fund positioning Emerging markets risks today Risks Slowing
More information