Global Markets Update QNB Economics 19 February 2017
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1 Global Markets Update QNB Economics 19 February 2017
2 Executive Summary Key Takeaways Yields in advanced economies were stable while local factors dominated emerging market performance The Egyptian pound continued to strengthen as foreigners bought government debt and US dollar shortages eased US equities rose on better economic data Oil markets were stable while OPEC confirmed compliance with production cuts; Saudi Arabia has contributed the most to cuts Business and manufacturing surveys dominate the week ahead in the Euro area and the US Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 2
3 Yields in advanced economies were stable while local factors dominated emerging market performance Global Benchmark Yields (%, local currencies) Maturity 10-Feb 17-Feb Change in Yield (bps) Advanced Economies Week MTD* YTD* US 10 yrs Germany 10 yrs France 10 yrs Italy 10 yrs Japan 10 yrs UK 10 yrs Emerging Markets Bahrain** 6 yrs Brazil 10 yrs China 10 yrs Egypt 10 yrs N/A N/A India 10 yrs Indonesia 10 yrs Nigeria 9 yrs Qatar** 9 yrs Russia 10 yrs Saudi Arabia** 10 yrs South Africa 10 yrs Turkey 10 yrs Abu Dhabi** 9 yrs Dubai** 4 yrs Nigeria s yields fell as the government issued local and hard currency bonds which were both heavily oversubscribed The probability of a Fed rate hike in May increased from 38% last week to 44% due to hawkish comments from the Fed and stronger than expected retail sales (0.4%) and inflation (2.5%) data Legend > 2 standard deviation fall in yields > 1 standard deviation fall in yields < 1 standarad deviation change in yields > 1 standard deviation rise in yields > 2 standard deviation rise in yields Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; *Month to Date and Year to Date; **USD denominated 3
4 The Egyptian pound continued to strengthen as foreigners bought government debt and US dollar shortages eased Global Exchange Rates vs USD 10-Feb 17-Feb Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US Dollar Index Euro Area* Japan UK* Emerging Markets Brazil China Egypt Indonesia 13,312 13, India Kuwait Nigeria Russia Turkey South Africa UAE Bahrain Oman PEGGED Qatar Saudi Arabia Broadly stable currency movements over the week Legend > 2 standard deviation strengthening of currency > 1 standard deviation strengthening of currency < 1 standarad deviation change in currency > 1 standard deviation weakening of currency > 2 standard deviation weakening of currency Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Exchange rate quoted as amount of USD per currency unit in line with market convention, other exchange rates are amount of currency per USD 4
5 US equities rose on better economic data Global Equity Indices 10-Feb 17-Feb Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US (S&P 500) 2,316 2, Europe (STOXX 50) 3,271 3, Japan (Nikkei 225) 19,379 19, UK (FTSE 100) 7,259 7, Emerging Markets Bahrain (BB) 1,307 1, Brazil (IBOVESPA) 64,965 67, China (Shanghai ) 3,197 3, Egypt (EGX 30) 13,115 12, India (CNX NIFTY) 8,794 8, Indonesia (Jakarta) 5,372 5, KSA (Tadawul) 6,969 7, Kuwait (KSE) 6,583 6, Nigeria (All Share) 25,340 25, Oman (Muscat 30) 5,820 5, Qatar (Doha 20) 10,629 10, Russia (MICEX) 2,162 2, S.Africa (J'burg 40) 45,013 45, Turkey (Istanbul 100) 87,473 88, UAE (Abu Dhabi) 4,569 4, UAE (Dubai) 3,683 3, Brazil s stock market rose as the central bank continued its decision towards intervention to support the Brazilian real Legend > 2 standard deviation rise in equity index > 1 standard deviation rise in equity index < 1 standarad deviation change in equity index > 1 standard deviation fall in equity index > 2 standard deviation fall in equity index Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 5
6 Oil markets were stable while OPEC confirmed compliance with production cuts; Saudi Arabia has contributed the most to cuts Commodity Prices* 10-Feb 17-Feb Change (%) Energy Week MTD YTD Brent WTI Precious Metals Gold 1,234 1, Silver Industrial Copper 6,090 5, Steel Aluminum 1,874 1, Wheat Corn Cocoa 1,939 2, US Crude oil inventories rose 9.5m barrels versus an expected increase of 3.5m US Gasoline inventories rose 2.8m versus an expected increase of 0.2m Legend > 2 standard deviation rise in price > 1 standard deviation rise in price < 1 standarad deviation change in price > 1 standard deviation fall in price > 2 standard deviation fall in price Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Spot prices or nearest expiring future 6
7 Business and manufacturing surveys dominate the week ahead in the Euro area and the US Last Week s Data Review* Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Feb 13 Japan GDP Annualised QoQ Q4 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% Feb 14 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Feb Feb 14 Euro Area GDP YoY Q4 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% Feb 15 US Retail Sales MoM Jan 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% Feb 15 US CPI YoY Jan 2.4% 2.5% 2.1% Feb 16 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb k 239k 234k Forthcoming Economic Events* Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Feb 21 Euro Area Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb Feb 22 Euro Area CPI YoY Jan 1.8% 1.8% Feb 22 Germany IFO Business Climate Feb Feb 21 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb Feb 23 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb k 239k Feb 24 US U. of Michigan Sentiment Feb Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics * A stands for advance, P for preliminary and F for final 7
8 Two-Year Performance of Major Asset Classes Sovereign 10-Year Bond Yields Equities 3 2 US Germany Advanced Economies* (left axis) Emerging Markets** (right axis) /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ Exchange Rates Commodities Dollar Index (left axis) EUR:USD (right axis) Oil (left axis) Food*** (right axis) /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * MSCI World Index; ** MSCI Emerging Markets Index;; ***S&P GSCI Agricultural Index, which includes wheat corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton 8
9 Disclaimer and Copyright Notice All the information in this report has been carefully collated and verified. However, QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with that of any other party, and such opinions may not be attributed to any other party. The report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB Group. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission. QNB Economics Team Ziad Daoud Head of Economics Rory Fyfe Senior Economist Ali Jaffery Economist Nancy Fahim Economist
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Markets volatile whilst economic data do not show any improvement Most equity markets ended the week on a higher note. The very significant volatility, however, makes it very difficult to infer from last
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