APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
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1 16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial Production Growth (YoY%) Industrial Production Growth (YoY%) US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Real GDP growth (QoQ%, saar)* Real GDP growth (QoQ%, saar)* US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China *For some economies, annualised GDP data were estimated by UOBAM. For India, data are in year-on-year percentages (YoY%). Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
2 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 17 Inflation - CPI (YoY%) Inflation - CPI (YoY%) US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOB Asset Management Ltd (UOBAM) unless otherwise stated, as at 4 December Central Banks Interest Rates Country Interest Rate Current Rate (%pa) Latest Meeting Change at Latest Mtg (bp) Last Change Next Meeting 3-Dec-2014 United States Fed Funds Target Rate US Dec 2008 (-75bp) 18 Dec 2014 Eurozone Refinance Rate Sep 2014 (-10bp) 4 Dec 2014 Japan BOJ Overnight Call Rate Dec 2008 (-20bp) - United Kingdom UK Offical Bank Rate Dec Mar 2009 (-50bp) 4 Dec 2014 Brazil Brazil Selic Target Rate Oct 2014 (+25bp) 16 Jul 2014 Russia Russia Refinacing Rate Announcement Sep 2012 (+25bp) - India Reverse Repo Rate Dec Jan 2014 (+25bp) 3 Feb 2015 China Interbank Repo 1D South Africa South Africa Repo Avg Rate Dec Jul 2014 (+25bp) 29 Jan 2015 Source: Bloomberg, as at 3 December 2014 UOB Asset Management
3 18 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY MARKET PERFORMANCE DEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS Equity Indices Equity Indices USA 11.6% Index Index Fixed Income Indices AC World 4.2% EM 0.2% Japan -4.2% Europe -4.4% Asia 8.8% High Yield -3.6% Investment 1.5% Singapore Govt 0.9% Sovereign 0.2% G7 GBI -0.1% Index Fixed Income Indices Index Asia ex-japan 4.6% EM 0.2% EM Latin Am -6.0% EM Europe -19.3% Sovereigns 10.9% EM Latin Am -6.0% Corporate 6.5% High Yield 2.9% 98 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Commodity Indices Dollar Index Spot Industrial Metals -3.2% Gold -3.2% Index Agriculture -10.2% GSCI Light Index-13.2% Index Energy -30.3% Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
4 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 19 EQUITY MARKET INDICATORS DEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS Earnings Revision by Regions for FY2 Earnings Revision by Regions for FY2 Revisions in previous 2 mths Revisions last mth Revisions in previous 2 mths Revisions last mth % Change % Change Earnings Revision by Sectors for FY2 Earnings Revision by Sectors for FY2 Revisions in previous 2 mths Revisions last mth Revisions in previous 2 mths Revisions last mth % Change % Change Earnings Yield Ratio* Earnings Yield Ratio* Mean+1SD,3.2x Nov-14,3x Mean,2.1x Mean+1SD,2.2x Nov-14,2.2x Mean,1.7x Mean-1SD,1.1x Mean-1SD,0.9x *Mean and SD are based on data from UOB Asset Management
5 20 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY P/BV vs ROE by Region P/E vs Growth by Region P/BV vs ROE by Sector P/BV vs Growth by Sector Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
6 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 21 FIXED INCOME MARKET INDICATORS Developed Markets 10-Year Govt Yield (%) Emerging Markets 10-Year Govt Yield (%) US Euro Japan UK Brazil Russia India China Emerging Markets (USD) Total Return Index Emerging Markets Yield and Credit Spread JPMorgan EMBI Total Return JPMorgan EMBI Spread (bps) JPMorgan EMBI Yield (%) - RHS Asia (USD) Total Return Index Asia Yield and Credit Spread JACI Total Return JACI Spread (bps) JACI Yield (%) - RHS UOB Asset Management
7 22 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Emerging Markets (Local Currency) Bond Yield Asia (Local Currency) Bond Yield JPMorgan GBI-EM Bond Yield (%) HSBC Asian Local Bond Yield (%) G-10 FX against US Dollar Emerging Markets FX against US Dollar % change versus USD from YTD to 30 Nov 14 % change versus USD from YTD to 30 Nov 14 Asia FX against US Dollar Singapore Bond Index % change versus USD from YTD to 30 Nov 14 HSBC Singapore Local Currency Non Govt Bond Index Singapore Government Bond Index All UOB - RHS Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
8 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY 23 COMMODITY MARKET INDICATORS Brent Crude Oil Price and Production Bloomberg OPEC Crude Oil Production Output/Saudia Arabia - RHS DOE EIA US Crude Oil Production - RHS Brent Crude Oil (USD) Agriculture Price (USD) Corn Wheat Soyabeans - RHS Precious Metal Price (USD) Base Metal Price Gold Silver - RHS LME Copper Inventories LME Copper Spot - RHS UOB Asset Management
APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 19 APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China
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