1. THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "1. THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS"

Transcription

1 THE ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 1.1. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT According to the most recent IMF estimates, world economic activity grew by 3.1% in 16, which was the second consecutive year of moderation (-.1pp, after -.pp in 15) compared to the previous year. The slowdown was due to the deceleration of the growth pace of developed economies (-.5pp, to 1.6%). Conversely, the group of emerging and developing economies interrupted a cycle of five consecutive years of slowdown, and their growth rate is estimated to have accelerated by.pp to.% in 16. In the, GDP growth stood at 1.6%, which corresponds to the mildest pace of expansion since 11, penalised by the weaker performance of the economy in the first quarter of the year, fostered by more modest contributions of domestic consumption and investment components. In the euro area, real GDP growth of 1.7% allowed this economy to grow in 16 at a rate higher than that of the for the first time since 8. However, economic recovery remained moderate, despite the expansionary monetary policy, a neutral budgetary policy, and the reduced prices of raw materials. The high levels of disparity in terms of growth within the euro area were maintained, with emphasis on the plus side for the expansion in Ireland (.9%) and Spain (3.1%). On the other hand, GDP in Greece stagnated (+.1%) in 16. Despite the unfavourable contribution brought about by the progressive moderation of the economic growth of China (-.3pp, to 6.6%), the lower contraction of GDP in Brazil and Russia (less pronounced than in 15) and the stability of the growth rate of India (7.6%) allowed an acceleration of GDP growth of the aggregate of emerging and developing economies in 16. Graph 1 - Real GDP growth and general price developments 5 Real GDP growth 6 Inflation (HCPI) (CPI) Source: European Commission and Eurostat Source: Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation continued low in most developed economies, remaining as such below the goal of their respective central banks. After particularly reduced records throughout the first half of 16, a recovery trend in inflation over the second half of the year was visible, largely justified by the recent price increase and stabilisation of energy raw materials, in the face of historically low values in the previous year. Thus, the annual average variation of inflation in the euro area was only.% in 16, after a null variation in 15. Core inflation, a measure that excludes the most volatile components of the inflation basket (such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) grew between.8% and 1% in 16, registering an annual average of.9%. In the, inflation also progressed at historical lows, reaching an annual average of 1.3% on total inflation. The respective core inflation grew at an annual average of.%. The gradual recovery of these economies has been accompanied by an improvement of the respective labour markets, although they are in different stages of the economic cycle. The

2 labour market is now close to full employment levels, with an unemployment rate of.7% in December 16. In the euro area, the labour market also developed favourably, with the unemployment rate standing at 9.6% in December 16, the lowest since April 9. This rate remains, however, marked by high disparities between the different countries of the region, with 3% in Greece and 18.% in Spain, compared to 3.9% in Germany. Public finances in the euro area preserved the consolidation path observed since 1, in a framework of economic recovery and reduction of interest rates. In 16, the General Government deficit decreased to 1.7% of GDP in the euro area (.1% in 15). This was not the case in the, where the General Government deficit increased by.6pp, to.8% of GDP in 16. The euro area public debt also registered a favourable trend in 16, with the respective ratio reducing for the second consecutive year, to 91.5% of GDP, 1.1pp lower than the previous year. The behaviour of this metric was less favourable in relation to the economy, increasing (for the tenth consecutive year).1pp to 17.3% of GDP. Graph Public debt and budget deficit in advanced economies General Government balance Public debt Source: European Commission In 16, the Portuguese economy registered a positive growth rate for the third consecutive year, albeit at a slower pace than that observed in the euro area. Overall, GDP grew 1.% in 16 (-.pp compared to the previous year),.3pp lower than the euro area. The slowdown of economic activity was due to the dichotomous development of the Portuguese economy between the first and second semesters of the year, with weak growth in the first half of 16 (+1% year on year), in contrast with the strong dynamism observed in the second half of the year, where the performance of the Portuguese economy was among the best of the euro area (+1.9%). Domestic demand grew significantly, driven by private consumption, with a growth of.3% (.6% in 15), which contrasts with a contraction of.3% of the gross fixed capital formation (+.5% in 15). The contribution of net external demand was positive, with higher exports than imports (despite the negative impact on exports associated with temporary factors in the first half of the year). This contributed to maintain a surplus of the balance of goods and services for the fifth consecutive year in 16 (.% of GDP), a trend that also reflects a sustained improvement in the terms of trade in recent years. Also important is the preservation, since 1, of the positive financing capacity of the Portuguese economy. In sectoral terms, there was a slight decrease in the financing capacity of households (from 1 to.8% of GDP) and financial corporations (from 3.8 to.%), offset by the improvement in the situation of General Government (from. to.1%) and non-financial corporations (from -. to.%), with the financing capacity of the total economy improving from.3 to 1.5% of GDP

3 Graph 3 Economic growth and external accounts in Portugal 6% Contributions to GDP growth External accounts 5% %,8% 1,6%,5% 1,9% %,9% 1,6% 1,% % %,% -1,1% % -1,8% % -3,% -6%,% -8% -5% -1% -15% Source: INE Internal demand GDP External demand Current + capital account Current account Goods and services account The labour market in Portugal maintained the positive trend that started in mid13, with the unemployment rate dropping to 1.% of the labour force in December 16 (the lowest record since mid9), which corresponded to a correction of pp year on year. This evolution reflected a reduction of 16.5% of the unemployed population and an increase of.3% of the employed population during the year. With regard to the evolution of the average price level, the prevalence of a context of reduced inflationary pressures, both internal and external, has dictated a scenario of low inflation in Portugal, similar to that observed for the euro area aggregate. The HICP in Portugal registered an annual average variation of.6% in 16,.1pp above that of the previous year. Graph Public finances in Portugal General Government balance Source: INE Overall balance Structural overall balance Primary balance Structural primary balance , 11 Maastricht debt 19, 13,6 19, 13, , Central Government deposits General Gov debt net of Central Gov deposits General Government gross debt The budgetary consolidation process continued in 16, allowing a reduction of the budget deficit to.% of GDP, the lowest since 197 and below 3% for the first time since the creation of the Economic and Monetary Union. This resulted from an improvement in the primary balance as a percentage of GDP from. to.% of GDP, the highest since 199. Notwithstanding these developments, along with the 3% growth of nominal GDP, the gross public debt ratio increased slightly (from 19 to 13.% of GDP), on the back of an increase of deposits, largely for the prefinancing of the recapitalisation of CGD, which occurred in the first quarter of 17. On the other hand, the public debt net of Central Government deposits decreased for the first time since 1997 (from 11.6 to 11% of GDP)

4 1.. MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS The monetary policy of the main central banks remained generally accommodative throughout 16, although with a greater degree of divergence between the progressive normalisation of the level of interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the maintenance of an expansionist policy by the ECB. In line with its mandate, given the convergence of the economy to a situation of full employment, accompanied by favourable economic perspectives (which should be consistent with an acceleration of inflation), the Federal Reserve continued the gradual normalisation process of key interest rates. Given the economic risks identified in the first half of the year (mostly associated with the Chinese economy), the Fed decided to raise the intervention rates only at the end of 16. Although the cycle of interest rate hikes is expected to continue over the next two years, it is anticipated that this process will be only gradual. Furthermore, the ECB extended the range of assets acquired monthly to corporate debt securities and increased the aggregate amount of monthly purchases from 6 to 8 billion as from April 16. The period of validity of the ECB s purchase programme was further extended until the end of 17, or later, if necessary. In addition, a new series of four TLTRO auctions was announced, which started in June 16, aiming at maintaining attractive funding levels for the banking sector with the ECB and improving the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in the region, with a calibration of the respective amounts for total lending to the economy by financial institutions. Developments in the European and money markets reflected the monetary policy adopted by the respective central banks. In this way, while the 3-month Euribor continued the downward trend that has characterised it over the past few years, ending the year at historic lows of -.319%, the Libor exhibited an opposite behaviour, reaching 1% at the end of 16, the highest since mid9. The evolution of sovereign yields in 16 was also conditioned by the policy of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, as well as by the occurrence of two political events with opposing impacts the result of the referendum on Britain s membership of the EU and the presidential elections. If the first reinforced the downward trend of yields in the and Germany, the second dictated their sharp rise between November and December, following an increase of both inflation and real growth expectations in the. Therefore, after reaching an annual minimum of 1.36% in August, the strong rise in the last two months of the year made it possible for the 1-year Treasury rate to increase by 17bp over the year to.%. The 1-year Bund rate also declined over the first three quarters of 16, backed by the ECB policy, in particular under the PSPP. In this sense, after reaching a minimum of -.19% in July, the sharp rise between November and December positioned the German 1-year yield at.1% at the end of 16, which nonetheless corresponded to an annual variation of bp. In December, the difference between the 1-year Treasury-Bund yield reached the highest level since German reunification (35bp), settling at bp at the end of the year

5 % basis points % basis points Graph 5 OT yields and euro-area sovereign spreads vs the Bund OT yields,5 Spread vs. bund (1Y), 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1, 5Y,5 1Y Dec-1 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Source: Bloomberg The spreads of peripheral countries of the euro area registered different dynamics in 16, with Portuguese yields behaving unfavourably in international markets, related inter alia to the resolution of Banif and the retransmission of Novo Banco s senior bonds to the vehicle resulting from the resolution of BES (which occurred at the end of 15), the reduction of the volume of purchases under the PSPP in the second half of 16, and the uncertainty about the decision of DBRS in relation to the Portuguese Republic s rating. The 1-year spread between German and Portuguese yields increased from 167bp to 356bp at the end of the year, which represents an underperformance in the light of the evolution of Spain spreads (+3bp, to 118bp) and Italy (+6bp to 161bp) versus German debt, with the same maturity. The euro depreciation trend against the dollar continued, as a result of the Fed and ECB monetary policy, as well as a set of exogenous factors, consistent with the increase in the interest rate differential between the two geographies, with the 3.% annual depreciation placing the euro close to the minimum observed in 3. The performance against the Yen was also negative (- 5.9%), which contrasts with the strong appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the British Pound (+15.8%, influenced by the outcome of Britain s referendum on the exit of the UK from the EU), which favoured the euro s performance in relation to the currency mix representing the main trading partners (+1.5%). In relation to the SDR basket of currencies in which IMF loans are denominated, the European currency appreciated.%, which implied a marginal increase of the value of the IMF loan in euros, before currency hedges, of about EUR 3 million throughout the year 16 (see section.3.). Graph 6 Foreign exchange rates and 1-year interest rates 5 5 1,3 Diferencial Treasury - Bund (RHS) 1, Bund 1,1 Treasury 3 3 1, 1-1 Dec-1 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Source: Bloomberg Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17,9,8,7 PT IT SP,6 Dec-1 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 EUR/D EUR/GBP EUR/JPY (RHS)

Projections for the Portuguese economy in 2017

Projections for the Portuguese economy in 2017 Projections for the Portuguese economy in 2017 85 Projections for the Portuguese economy in 2017 Continued recovery process of the Portuguese economy According to the projections prepared by Banco de Portugal,

More information

Management Report. Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A.

Management Report. Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A. Management Report Banco Espírito Santo do Oriente, S.A. Summary of Management Report International Economic Framework The year under review was marked by a slowdown in global economic activity and GDP

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2017

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2017 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 4 th quarter 217 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 2 th March of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data are

More information

Projections for the Portuguese Economy:

Projections for the Portuguese Economy: Projections for the Portuguese Economy: 2018-2020 March 2018 BANCO DE PORTUGAL E U R O S Y S T E M BANCO DE EUROSYSTEM PORTUGAL Projections for the portuguese economy: 2018-20 Continued expansion of economic

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 1 st quarter 218 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 27 th June of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data are quarterly

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2017

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2017 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments nd quarter 17 Lisbon, 17 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to th September of 17. Portuguese Banking System: latest developments Banco de Portugal

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released

More information

Projections for the Portuguese economy:

Projections for the Portuguese economy: Projections for the Portuguese economy: 217-19 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 217-19 1. Introduction The projections for the Portuguese economy point to a continued economic activity recovery

More information

Economic Bulletin December 2018

Economic Bulletin December 2018 Economic Bulletin December 218 Economic Bulletin December 218 BANCO DE PORTUGAL EUROSYSTEM Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Economic Bulletin December 218 Banco de Portugal Av. Almirante Reis, 71 115-12 Lisboa

More information

Economic Bulletin. May Lisbon, 2017

Economic Bulletin. May Lisbon, 2017 Economic Bulletin May 217 Lisbon, 217 www.bportugal.pt Economic Bulletin May 217 Banco de Portugal Av. Almirante Reis, 71 115-12 Lisboa www.bportugal.pt Edition Economics and Research Department Design

More information

2. International developments

2. International developments 2. International developments (6) During the period, global economic developments were generally positive. The economy grew faster in the second quarter, mainly driven by the favourable financing conditions

More information

QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW

QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW During 13 the Spanish economy moved on a gradually improving path that enabled it to exit the contractionary phase dating back to early 11. This came about

More information

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015 Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by

More information

Economic Bulletin. June Lisbon,

Economic Bulletin. June Lisbon, Economic Bulletin June 2017 Lisbon, 2017 www.bportugal.pt Economic Bulletin June 2017 Banco de Portugal Av. Almirante Reis, 71 1150-012 Lisboa www.bportugal.pt Edition Economics and Research Department

More information

STABILITY PROGRAMME UPDATE KINGDOM OF SPAIN

STABILITY PROGRAMME UPDATE KINGDOM OF SPAIN STABILITY PROGRAMME UPDATE KINGDOM OF SPAIN 2017-2020 e-nipo 057-17-061-9 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 5 2. INTRODUCTION... 7 3. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK... 10 3.1. Recent evolution of the Spanish

More information

OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SECTOR SNAPSHOT

OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SECTOR SNAPSHOT OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SECTOR SNAPSHOT The Portuguese economy: most important developments - I The Economic and Financial Adjustment Programme (EFAP) ended in May 2014. Total funding for the

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2018

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2018 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 2 nd quarter 218 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 26 th September of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data

More information

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017

Eurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 3 rd quarter 2017

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 3 rd quarter 2017 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 3 rd quarter 217 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 18 th December of 217 for macroeconomic and financial market indicators,

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2017

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2017 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 1 st quarter 17 Lisbon, 17 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 7 th June of 17. Portuguese Banking System: latest developments Banco de Portugal

More information

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.

The real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter. QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates

More information

3 rd Quarter 2017 CAIXA ECONÓMICA MONTEPIO GERAL GROUP. Pursuant to Article 10 of the CMVM Regulation No. 5/2008

3 rd Quarter 2017 CAIXA ECONÓMICA MONTEPIO GERAL GROUP. Pursuant to Article 10 of the CMVM Regulation No. 5/2008 REPORT AND ACCOUNTS 3 rd Quarter 2017 CAIXA ECONÓMICA MONTEPIO GERAL GROUP Pursuant to Article 10 of the CMVM Regulation No. 5/2008 (Unaudited financial information prepared in accordance with IFRS as

More information

Economic Bulletin. October Lisbon,

Economic Bulletin. October Lisbon, Economic Bulletin October 216 Lisbon, 216 www.bportugal.pt Economic Bulletin October 216 Banco de Portugal Rua do Comércio, 148 11-15 Lisboa www.bportugal.pt Edition Economics and Research Department Design

More information

Banco de Portugal. Economic Research. Economic bulletin. June Volume 9 Number 2. Economic policy and situation. Articles

Banco de Portugal. Economic Research. Economic bulletin. June Volume 9 Number 2. Economic policy and situation. Articles Banco de Portugal Economic bulletin June 2003 Economic policy and situation Prospects for the Portuguese economy: 2003-2004... 5 Articles Monetary conditions index for Portugal... 25 The effect of demographic

More information

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Spring 17 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria Bulgarian economy is expected to expand by 3% in 17 driven by domestic demand. As compared to 16, the external sector will

More information

OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SECTOR SNAPSHOT

OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SECTOR SNAPSHOT OVERVIEW OF THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SECTOR SNAPSHOT The Portuguese economy: most important developments - I The Economic and Financial Adjustment Programme (EFAP) ended in May 2014. Total funding for the

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND MATERIAL TO THE ABRIDGED MINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING OF 19 DECEMBER 2017

MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND MATERIAL TO THE ABRIDGED MINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING OF 19 DECEMBER 2017 MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS BACKGROUND MATERIAL TO THE ABRIDGED MINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING OF 19 DECEMBER 17 17 D E C E M B E R Time of publication: p.m. on 1 January 18

More information

Developments in inflation and its determinants

Developments in inflation and its determinants INFLATION REPORT February 2018 Summary Developments in inflation and its determinants The annual CPI inflation rate strengthened its upward trend in the course of 2017 Q4, standing at 3.32 percent in December,

More information

Texts on economic policy and situation

Texts on economic policy and situation Texts on economic policy and situation INFLATION RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS FOR 1998 1. INTRODUCTION In 1997, inflation in Portugal reached values compatible with price stability. In accordance with

More information

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected

More information

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the

More information

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Autumn 2017 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria The Autumn macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Finance takes into account better performance of the Bulgarian economy

More information

NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA. Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor

NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA. Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor Belgrade, May Ladies and gentlemen, representatives of the press, dear colleagues, Welcome

More information

Portuguese Banking System

Portuguese Banking System Portuguese Banking System Recent Developments Updated: 1 st quarter 215 Prepared with data available up to 24 June 215 Outline Portuguese Banking System Main Highlights Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators

More information

2 Macroeconomic Scenario

2 Macroeconomic Scenario The macroeconomic scenario was conceived as realistic and conservative with an effort to balance out the positive and negative risks of economic development..1 The World Economy and Technical Assumptions

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report III/2018) Meeting with Analysts Karel Musil Prague, 3 August 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy

Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 3-2016 October 11 th, 2016 This presentation is supported by Various developments in the current period Positive developments: international tourism, low energy prices,

More information

Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy

Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Carlos Name da Job Silva Costa Governor 13 January 214 Seminar National Seminar Bank name of Poland 19 June 215 Outline 1. Growing imbalances

More information

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model

Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Economic Institute Inflation projection of Narodowy Bank Polski based on the NECMOD model Warsaw / 9 March Inflation projection of the NBP based on the NECMOD model Outline: Introduction Changes between

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments The overall macroeconomic environment remains very challenging for the European insurance and pension sector. The yields have been further compressed and are substantially below the

More information

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA SECOND QUARTER OF 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,6% on an annual basis in Q1 2018, driven by the private consumption and

More information

BANK OF ALBANIA MONETARY POLICY REPORT

BANK OF ALBANIA MONETARY POLICY REPORT MONETARY POLICY REPORT October 2005 MONETARY POLICY REPORT OCTOBER 2005-1 - MONETARY POLICY REPORT October 2005-2 - MONETARY POLICY REPORT October 2005 C O N T E N T S I Main highlights 5 II Inflation

More information

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. March 2014

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. March 2014 Macroeconomic and financial market developments March 2014 Background material to the abridged minutes of the Monetary Council meeting 25 March 2014 Article 3 (1) of the MNB Act (Act CXXXIX of 2013 on

More information

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012 PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.

More information

Spain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain

Spain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain Economic Outlook FIRST QUARTER 2016 Spain Economic Outlook Spain The world economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past and with more risks Spain's economy has started 2016 with

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report I/2018) Meeting with Analysts Tomáš Holub Prague, 2 February 2018 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key

5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key 5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016 2018 The BNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators is based on the information published as of 17 June 2016. ECB, EC and

More information

INFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts

INFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts INFLATION REPORT March 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 March 2016 International environment Public Monetary

More information

Spain s economic recovery gains speed, but the external balance worsens

Spain s economic recovery gains speed, but the external balance worsens Spain s economic recovery gains speed, but the external balance worsens Ángel Laborda and María Jesús Fernández 1 Correction of imbalances, together with structural reform and exogenous factors, supports

More information

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA THIRD QUARTER OF 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,2% on an annual basis in Q2 2018, driven by the private consumption and

More information

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017 PM Previsions Macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and 2018 June 2017 Previsions macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy June 2017 ISSN: 2013-2182

More information

Portugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012

Portugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

The Global Economy Modest Improvement

The Global Economy Modest Improvement Title line 1 Title line 2 The Global Economy Modest Improvement Name David Katsnelson, Director Title, date RISI Macroeconomic Service 3 June, 2015 1 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. China 3. External Environment

More information

Inflation Report. July September 2012

Inflation Report. July September 2012 July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate

More information

Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018

Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018 Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for

More information

Assessment of the 2018 Stability Programme for. Portugal

Assessment of the 2018 Stability Programme for. Portugal EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Brussels, 23 May 2018 Assessment of the 2018 Stability Programme for Portugal (Note prepared by DG ECFIN staff) 1 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION...

More information

FINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016?

FINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016? ECONOMIC RESEARCH January - No. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in? We believe investors will be faced with the following characteristics in euro-zone financial markets

More information

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2012

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2012 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2012 The year 2012 recorded a further slowdown in global economic conditions, related to the acuteness of the crisis of confidence, in particular as

More information

C Forecast of the Development of Macroeconomic Indicators

C Forecast of the Development of Macroeconomic Indicators C Forecast of the Development of Macroeconomic Indicators Sources of tables and graphs: CZSO, Eurostat C.1 Economic Output Latest development of GDP In Q1 2013, seasonally adjusted real GDP 3 fell by a

More information

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014 OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time

More information

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political

More information

Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP

Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. Account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP % 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e 216 e 217 e 218 e

More information

Introduction and summary

Introduction and summary MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE SPANISH ECONOMY (2018-2021): THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA S CONTRIBUTION TO THE EUROSYSTEM S DECEMBER 2018 JOINT FORECASTING EXERCISE Introduction and summary This report describes

More information

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS FEBRUARY 2018 2 Summary of macroeconomic developments, February 2018 Forecasts for global economic developments over the medium term are optimistic. In its January

More information

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018 THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA IN 2018 SOFIA HIGHLIGHTS In 2018 the Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,1% on an annual basis, driven by the private consumption and investments; The

More information

QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY 1 OVERVIEW

QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY 1 OVERVIEW QUARTERLY REPORT ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW The first quarter of 3 saw a continuation of the pattern of contraction in economic activity, albeit at a slacker pace than in the final stretch of. On

More information

Inflation Report. January March 2013

Inflation Report. January March 2013 January March 2013 May 8, 2013 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment

More information

NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA

NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA 1 The annual inflation rate dropped below the mid-point of the ±1pp variation band around the 3% target set by the NBR for 212 12 annual percentage change 1 8 Target 2 5. 2 Target 27. Target 28 3.8 Target

More information

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2016

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2016 Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 4 th quarter 216 Lisbon, 217 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 3 th March of 217. Portuguese Banking System: latest developments Banco de

More information

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA

THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR IN BULGARIA SECOND QUARTER OF 2017 Sofia HIGHLIGHTS The Bulgarian economy recorded growth of 3,9% on an annual basis in Q1 2017, driven by the domestic demand; The inflation

More information

Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off

Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off Brazil: the adjustment continues, GDP is contracting and inflation is taking off Enestor Dos Santos BBVA Research Principal Economist: Emerging Economies Unit Brazil Economic Outlook 2T25 Madrid, 3 June

More information

Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?

Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011

More information

QUAR QUARTERLY BULLETIN. July-August 2016 SPANISH ECONOMY REPORT

QUAR QUARTERLY BULLETIN. July-August 2016 SPANISH ECONOMY REPORT QUAR QUARTERLY BULLETIN July-August 216 SPANISH ECONOMY REPORT The Spanish Economy: recent developments and prospects: July-August 216 Elaboración y coordinación: Dirección General de Análisis Macroeconómico

More information

Economic ProjEctions for

Economic ProjEctions for Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest

More information

The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy

The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.

More information

Summary of macroeconomic developments, August 2018

Summary of macroeconomic developments, August 2018 2 Summary of macroeconomic developments, August 2018 Escalating trade disputes have brought significant uncertainty to the global economy. Global activity indicators are suggesting a slowdown in growth,

More information

Markets Overview Pulse & calendar Economic scenario

Markets Overview Pulse & calendar Economic scenario : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: 1: 18: : : : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: 1: 18: : : : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: Markets have reacted in a calm way to the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal Despite the increase in geopolitical

More information

Banque de France Economic Report

Banque de France Economic Report Banque de France Economic Report 2016 CONTENTS MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY 5 Summary 6 1 Market and international environment: resilience of the markets and economies 7 Capital and commodity

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Czech monetary policy: On a way to neutral interest rates

Czech monetary policy: On a way to neutral interest rates Czech monetary policy: On a way to neutral interest rates Petr Král Deputy Executive Director Monetary Department Czech & Hungary Investor Day London, 14 November 2018 Current economic situation 2 Structure

More information

Economic Projections for

Economic Projections for Economic Projections for 2015-2017 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:3, pp. 86-91 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2015-2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic projections

More information

Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective

Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective Member of Executive Board Structure of the presentation: 1. Where do we come from? ECB s monetary policy set up and main reactions

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 24 DECEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. April 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the

More information

Monthly policy monetary report October monetary policy monthly report

Monthly policy monetary report October monetary policy monthly report Monthly policy monetary report October 2006 monetary policy monthly report OCTOBER 2006 October 2006 Monthly policy monetary report Main highlights Inflation developments Annual inflation in October experienced

More information

MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE PERIOD

MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE PERIOD MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2015-2016 PERIOD This section describes the growth and inflation projections for the Spanish economy made by DG Economics, Statistics and Research for the 2015-2016 period,

More information

HONDURAS. 1. General trends

HONDURAS. 1. General trends Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2016 1 HONDURAS 1. General trends Economic growth in Honduras picked up in 2015, reaching 3.6%, compared with 3.1% in 2014. This performance was mainly

More information

Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession

Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession EUROPEAN COMMISSION Olli REHN Vice-President of the European Commission and member of the Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a

More information

Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook. Year I Number 1 December 2016

Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook. Year I Number 1 December 2016 Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook Year I Number December PUBLISHER Croatian National Bank Publishing Department Trg hrvatskih velikana, Zagreb Phone: + Contact phone: + Fax: + 7 www.hnb.hr Those using

More information

Santander Totta. Portugal Economic Review. Simple Personal Fair. A prolonged slow recovery. General Information. Real GDP (2015) Population

Santander Totta. Portugal Economic Review. Simple Personal Fair. A prolonged slow recovery. General Information. Real GDP (2015) Population Santander Totta Simple Personal Fair Portugal Economic Review General Information Real GDP (2015) EUR 171 Bn Population 1 mn Form of State Parliamentary Democracy Head of government António Costa (Socialist

More information

Highlights 2/2017. Main topics: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria. Economic and Financial Policy Directorate ISSN

Highlights 2/2017. Main topics: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria. Economic and Financial Policy Directorate ISSN BULGARIAN месечен ECONOMY обзор Monthly Report Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria 2/217 Economic and Financial Policy Directorate ISSN 2367-2 Main topics:» Gross domestic product» Short-term

More information

Spanish economy A spotter s guide to the Spanish economy

Spanish economy A spotter s guide to the Spanish economy Banco Sabadell Investor Relations Spanish economy A spotter s guide to the Spanish economy This document has been prepared by: Investor Relations at Banco Sabadell - investorrelations@bancsabadell.com

More information

ECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED

ECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED EBF Economic Outlook Nr 43 May 2018 2018 SPRING OUTLOOK ON THE EURO AREA ECONOMIES IN 2018-2019 ECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED EDITORIAL TEAM: Francisco Saravia (author), Helge Pedersen - Chair of the

More information

2.10 PROJECTIONS. Macroeconomic scenario for Italy (percentage changes on previous year, unless otherwise indicated)

2.10 PROJECTIONS. Macroeconomic scenario for Italy (percentage changes on previous year, unless otherwise indicated) . PROJECTIONS The projections for growth and inflation presented in this Economic Bulletin point to a strengthening of the economic recovery in Italy (Table ), based on the assumption that the weaker stimulus

More information

Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook. Year II Number 2 July 2017

Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook. Year II Number 2 July 2017 Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook Year II Number July 7 PUBLISHER Croatian National Bank Publishing Department Trg hrvatskih velikana, Zagreb Phone: + Contact phone: + Fax: + 7 www.hnb.hr Those using

More information

SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana

SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana Real economy highlights Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint

More information

Economic Projections :1

Economic Projections :1 Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. August 2017

Macroeconomic and financial market developments. August 2017 Macroeconomic and financial market developments August Background material to the abridged minutes of the Monetary Council meeting of August MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK Time of publication: p.m. on September The

More information