Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee September 2015

Transcription

1 Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee September 2015

2 The Great Rebalancing Faces Bumps Not Roadblocks As of September 9, 2015 Our primary investment thesis for 2015 remains intact. To review, we called for a rebalancing of growth from the US to other parts of the world spurred by a stronger US dollar, lower commodity prices and more generous monetary policies outside the United States. As evidence, we have witnessed better economic data in Europe, Japan and select emerging market countries (India), while US data has been mixed. As a result, developed international equity markets have performed well relative to the United States. Recently, concerns over growth and extreme volatility in emerging markets, primarily China, have weighed on risk assets and our original thesis. Will this volatility lead to economic contagion? The Global Investment Committee remains undeterred in its view that global growth and deflationary trends likely troughed in the first quarter and that recent weakness is a re-test of those trends bottoming. Importantly, the United States economy remains on solid footing at this point this is why the Fed is tightening monetary policy starting with the exit from QE last year and is likely to raise interest rates in September or December. Interest rates are rising and the yield curve is steepening we think this is a positive signal for growth and important to recognize from a portfolio standpoint. Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 2

3 Risk Aversion Has Rarely Been Higher Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of September 8, 2015 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 3

4 1 Corrections Occur Frequently Even in Good Years S&P 500 Annual Price Returns and Intra-Year Price Declines As of September 9, YTD S&P 500 Annual Return Maximum Intra-year Decline Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 4

5 US Economy Still in Early Expansion Phase Morgan Stanley Cycle Indicator¹ - US As of July 31, Rate Hikes Begin 1994-Rate Hikes Begin 2004-Rate Hikes Begin Fed Ends QE Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 NBER Recession Downturn Repair Recovery Expansion Mid Line Source: Morgan Stanley & Co. Research, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, NBER. Grey bars indicate periods of recession. (1) The Morgan Stanley US Cycle Indicator measures the deviation from historical norms for macro factors including employment, credit conditions, corporate behavior and the yield curve. The repair phase occurs due to the lag time between when these factors are beginning to improve and when they turn positive. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 5

6 Overall, the Global Developed Economy Is Mid-Cycle Developed Market Cycle Indicator As of July 31, Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Downturn Repair Recovery Expansion Mid Line US Cycle Indicator As of July 31, Jan-55 Jan-65 Jan-75 Jan-85 Jan-95 Jan-05 Jan-15 NBER Recession Downturn Repair Recovery Expansion Mid Line Eurozone Cycle Indicator As of July 31, Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 CEPR Recession Downturn Repair Recovery Expansion Mid Line Japan Cycle Indicator As of July 31, Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 ESRI Recession Downturn Repair Recovery Expansion Mid Line Source: Morgan Stanley & Co. The Morgan Stanley Cycle Indicator Indices measure the deviation from historical norms for macro factors including employment, credit conditions, corporate behavior and the yield curve. The repair phase occurs due to the lag time between when these factors are beginning to improve and when they turn positive. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 6

7 Tighter Financial Conditions Are the Biggest Concern Morgan Stanley Financial Conditions Index¹ As of September 8, QE QE1.5 Tighter QE2 Twist LTRO Draghi ECB BOJ QE QQE+ 0 QE3 BOJ QQE² -1-2 Looser LTRO II Fed Ends QE Morgan Stanley Financial Conditions Index¹ Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. (1) The y-axis measures the Morgan Stanley Financial Conditions Index, a weighted index comprised of changes in equities, short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates & USD currency. (2) Bank of Japan Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE). GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 7

8 When Oil Is this Cheap in Real Terms, It s Bullish for Equities WTI Crude in Gold Terms Vs. S&P 500 As of August 31, Log Scale US Recession WTI Crude/Gold (left axis) S&P 500 (right axis) 50 S&P 500 Performance Following Extreme WTI/Gold Downside Readings 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y Median Performance 9.9% 21.1% 28.3% 48.9% 15.8% 25.2% 21.2% 36.9% 10.3% 17.7% 44.3% 37.2% Positive Hit Rate % % Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. Note: Performance is based on data from 1983 and later; extreme period is denoted by a WTI/Gold reading below GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 8 WTI WTI/Gold

9 US Consumers Are Regaining Their Footing US Consumer Confidence As of August 31, Bloomberg US Weekly Consumer Comfort Index (four-week avg.) US Household Formations As of June 30, US Household Formations (thousands, six-month avg.) US Real Wages and Salaries As of 2Q % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Real Wages and Salaries Y/Y US Revolving Consumer Credit As of July 31, % -5% US Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding Y/Y Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 9

10 US Equities Have Underperformed Due to Earnings S&P 500 vs. Estimated Earnings As of September 9, US equities have underperformed this year as earnings estimates have been reduced by a stronger US dollar and weaker energy prices. We believe these estimates are now too low and that US equities should perform better from here S&P 500 (left axis) S&P 500 NTM EPS Estimate (right axis) Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 10

11 S&P500 Earnings Growth May Be Bottoming That s Bullish S&P 500 EPS Growth As of September 4, 2015 S&P 500 EPS Growth Vs. S&P 500 Performance As of September 4, % Est. 4 Est % % 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E S&P 500 Y/Y EPS Growth S&P 500 Y/Y EPS Growth (left axis) S&P 500 Y/Y (right axis) Source: Thomson Financial, S&P, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley & Co. Research GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 11

12 European Fundamentals Are Just Turning Higher Euro Area Real M1 Growth Vs. Real GDP Growth As of July 31, % 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% Real GDP Growth (left axis) Real M1 Growth (12M Lead, right axis) 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% Europe Economic and Earnings Surprise As of August 31, Citi Economic Surprise- Eurozone (left axis) MSCI Europe Earnings Surprise (right axis) Europe Private Credit Growth As of July 31, % European Peripheral Bond Spreads Vs. German Bund (in bps) As of August 31, % % Euro Area Private Credit Growth Y/Y Italy (left axis) Spain (left axis) Portugal (right axis) Source: Morgan Stanley & Co., Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. M1 = cash and checking deposits. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page

13 Japanese Earnings Remain in a Strong Uptrend TOPIX Vs. Estimated Earnings As of September 9, TOPIX Index (left axis) TOPIX Index NTM EPS Estimate (right axis) Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 13

14 Japan Is No Longer Just About the Weaker Yen MSCI Japan Sector Performance: As of December 31, 2014 MSCI Japan Sector Performance: 2015 YTD As of September 8, 2015 Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. Correlation is a statistical method of measuring the strength of a linear relationship between two variables. The correlation between two variables can assume any value from to +1.00, inclusive. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 14

15 Recent RMB Depreciation Miniscule Vs. Historical Move Higher JP Morgan RMB Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate As of September 9, RMB/USD Exchange Rate As of September 9, Devaluation USD Bull Market China Bull Market RMB Has Appreciated by 3 Vs. the USD Since JP Morgan RMB Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate RMB/USD Exchange Rate Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 15

16 Equity Volatility Is Disproportionately High Vs. Bonds and FX Equity, Currency and Bond Volatility As of September 15, 2015 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC; VIX chart is based on intraday highs. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 16

17 Typical Corrective Trading Patterns S&P 500 Total Return Around US Equity Market Momentum Lows As of September 14, Days August 2015 Period Time 0= Momentum Low Average: August 1998 and August 2011 Periods Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. Average of August 1998 and August 2011 periods represents the average of the S&P 500 total return during these timeframes. These two periods are cited given the GIC believes they are representative of the most recent US equity market momentum low, which took place in August GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 17

18 Bottom Line: Our Recommendations As of September 9, 2015 We continue to recommend equities over fixed income. Furthermore, active managers are outperforming this year in the US. We think this continues. In the US, we prefer Financials, Healthcare, Consumer/Housing-Related, Tech and Energy. Smalland mid-capitalization stocks still positioned ok with greater margin upside potential and less US dollar exposure than large caps. They also offer more stock-picking opportunities. Japan potentially in the early stages of secular bull market skepticism is still high / valuations low. The recent broadening out to domestically oriented sectors is a big positive for Abenomics. Europe is finally getting the support from the ECB with QE, which should pave the way for the end of fiscal austerity we expect European equities to outperform in Emerging markets are very idiosyncratic with most underperforming. We like China H -Shares, India, Taiwan and there could be a meaningful rally in the commodity-based countries i.e., Brazil and Russia if oil stabilizes. In fixed income, we still recommend below-benchmark duration*. US high yield attractive and municipal bonds cheap to Treasuries. Consider TIPS and WIPS as inflation expectations recover. Given our reflationary view and expectation for higher interest rates, we are less sanguine about REITs, particularly in the US. We remain tactically underweight until rates reach higher levels. We feel the same about other interest rate-sensitive assets like Utilities and long-duration bonds. Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. *For more information about the risks to Duration and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), please refer to the Risk Considerations section at the end of this material. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 18

19 Asset Class Risk Considerations For index definitions to the indices referenced in this report please visit the following: Equity securities may fluctuate in response to news on companies, industries, market conditions and general economic environment. Investing in foreign markets entails risks not typically associated with domestic markets, such as currency fluctuations and controls, restrictions on foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, and the potential for political instability. These risks may be magnified in countries with emerging markets and frontier markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies. Investing in small- to medium-sized companies entails special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. The value of fixed income securities will fluctuate and, upon a sale, may be worth more or less than their original cost or maturity value. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, call risk, reinvestment risk, liquidity risk, and credit risk of the issuer. High yield bonds (bonds rated below investment grade) may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk, price volatility, and limited liquidity in the secondary market. High yield bonds should comprise only a limited portion of a balanced portfolio. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; however, some bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Typically, state tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one's state of residence and, if applicable, local tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one's city of residence. Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) coupon payments and underlying principal are automatically increased to compensate for inflation by tracking the consumer price index (CPI). While the real rate of return is guaranteed, TIPS tend to offer a low return. Because the return of TIPS is linked to inflation, TIPS may significantly underperform versus conventional U.S. Treasuries in times of low inflation. Ultrashort-term fixed income asset class is comprised of fixed income securities with high quality, very short maturities. They are therefore subject to the risks associated with debt securities such as credit and interest rate risk. Alternative investments may be either traditional alternative investment vehicles, such as hedge funds, fund of hedge funds, private equity, private real estate and managed futures or, non-traditional products such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that also seek alternative-like exposure but have significant differences from traditional alternative investments. The risks of traditional alternative investments may include: can be highly illiquid, speculative and not suitable for all investors, loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment due to leveraging, short-selling, or other speculative practices, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification and resulting higher risk due to concentration of trading authority when a single advisor is utilized, absence of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than open-end mutual funds, and risks associated with the operations, personnel and processes of the manager. Non-traditional alternative strategy products may employ various investment strategies and techniques for both hedging and more speculative purposes such as short-selling, leverage, derivatives and options, which can increase volatility and the risk of investment loss. Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capital markets to fund growth, adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk. The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund s value. MLPs carry interest rate risk and may underperform in a rising interest rate environment. Investing in commodities entails significant risks. Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i) changes in supply and demand relationships, (ii) governmental programs and policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war and terrorist events, (iv) changes in interest and exchange rates, (v) trading activities in commodities and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity. In addition, the commodities markets are subject to temporary distortions or other disruptions due to various factors, including lack of liquidity, participation of speculators and government intervention. Physical precious metals are non-regulated products. Precious metals are speculative investments, which may experience short-term and long term price volatility. The value of precious metals investments may fluctuate and may appreciate or decline, depending on market conditions. Unlike bonds and stocks, precious metals do not make interest or dividend payments. Therefore, precious metals may not be suitable for investors who require current income. Precious metals are commodities that should be safely stored, which may impose additional costs on the investor. REITs investing risks are similar to those associated with direct investments in real estate: property value fluctuations, lack of liquidity, limited diversification and sensitivity to economic factors such as interest rate changes and market recessions. Risks of private real estate include: illiquidity; a long-term investment horizon with a limited or nonexistent secondary market; lack of transparency; volatility (risk of loss); and leverage. Principal is returned on a monthly basis over the life of a mortgage-backed security. Principal prepayment can significantly affect the monthly income stream and the maturity of any type of MBS, including standard MBS, CMOs and Lottery Bonds. Asset-backed securities generally decrease in value as a result of interest rate increases, but may benefit less than other fixed-income securities from declining interest rates, principally because of prepayments. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 19

20 Asset Class Risk Considerations (cont d) Floating-rate securities The initial interest rate on a floating-rate security may be lower than that of a fixed-rate security of the same maturity because investors expect to receive additional income due to future increases in the floating security s underlying reference rate. The reference rate could be an index or an interest rate. However, there can be no assurance that the reference rate will increase. Some floating-rate securities may be subject to call risk. Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision. Credit ratings are subject to change. Companies paying dividends can reduce or cut payouts at any time. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets. The indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. The indices selected by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management to measure performance are representative of broad asset classes. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management retains the right to change representative indices at any time. Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies. Growth investing does not guarantee a profit or eliminate risk. The stocks of these companies can have relatively high valuations. Because of these high valuations, an investment in a growth stock can be more risky than an investment in a company with more modest growth expectations. Value investing does not guarantee a profit or eliminate risk. Not all companies whose stocks are considered to be value stocks are able to turn their business around or successfully employ corrective strategies which would result in stock prices that do not rise as initially expected. Rebalancing does not protect against a loss in declining financial markets. There may be a potential tax implication with a rebalancing strategy. Investors should consult with their tax advisor before implementing such a strategy. Duration, the most commonly used measure of bond risk, quantifies the effect of changes in interest rates on the price of a bond or bond portfolio. The longer the duration, the more sensitive the bond or portfolio would be to changes in interest rates. Besides the general risk of holding securities that may decline in value, closed-end funds may have additional risks related to declining market prices relative to net asset values (NAVs), active manager underperformance, and potential leverage. Some funds also invest in foreign securities, which may involve currency risk. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The securities/instruments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor s individual circumstances and objectives. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management recommends that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. This material is based on public information as of the specified date, and may be stale thereafter. We have no obligation to tell you when information herein may change. We and our third-party data providers make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material should not be viewed as advice or recommendations with respect to asset allocation or any particular investment. This information is not intended to, and should not, form a primary basis for any investment decisions that you may make. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is not acting as a fiduciary under either the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended or under section 4975 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 as amended in providing this material. Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, its affiliates and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors do not provide legal or tax advice. Each client should always consult his/her personal tax and/or legal advisor for information concerning his/her individual situation and to learn about any potential tax or other implications that may result from acting on a particular recommendation. This material is disseminated in the United States of America by Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is not acting as a municipal advisor to any municipal entity or obligated person within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act (the Municipal Advisor Rule ) and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice within the meaning of the Municipal Advisor Rule. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC. Member SIPC. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 20