Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

Transcription

1 PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth. Boost to U.S. Earnings & GDP Growth with Trump Reflation. ECB & BoJ Continue QE Buying, Modest Fed Hikes. Improved Emerging Markets Growth & Some Rate Cuts The global equity rally is likely to continue, fueled by strong earnings & strengthening GDP growth with boost to U.S. earnings & GDP growth from Trump tax cuts, increased spending & reduced regulations. Further, the ECB & BoJ continue QE buying, Fed rate hikes are likely to be modest, Emerging Markets enjoy improving growth and rate cuts. John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist Stocks: The global stock market rally resumed in February after a pause in late January with solid Q4 earnings reports and President Trump signaling tax cuts, roll-back of regulations and increased spending on infrastructure and defense. The developed markets index gained 2.9% in February, up 5.3% in 2017 YTD (through March 2 nd ). Emerging Markets rose 1.6% in February, with 2017 YTD gains of 5.9%. Looking ahead, the stock markets rally is likely to continue, driven by: 1) Strong Earnings Growth in 2017: Global earnings growth is expected to be strong in 2017, around 13%, with stronger GDP growth, and with U.S. earnings getting a boost from Trump tax cuts, reduced regulations and increased spending; 2) Improved Global GDP Growth: Global growth remains on track to strengthen in 2017 with stronger U.S. GDP growth fueled by Trump fiscal stimulus. Eurozone and U.K. are on track to improved growth in Japanese GDP is expected to remain steady with export recovery on weak yen. Emerging economies are likely to improve with steady growth in China, India rebounding faster than expected from the currency demonetization drag, and Brazil and Russia on track to grow after recessions; 3) Liquidity & Interest Rate Backdrop Remains Favorable but Less Supportive in 2017: The global liquidity and interest rate backdrop remains favorable but less supportive than in the past as continued ECB and BoJ QE stimulus, rate cuts in Brazil, Russia and some Emerging Markets are offset by rate hikes by the Fed, Mexico and other Emerging Markets. However, stock valuations have become expensive and likely to be headwinds for further market gains. Further, stocks face several risks including: 1) Fed turning hawkish in response to rising inflation pressures from Trump stimulus; 2) Trump administration pursuing protectionist policies; and 3) Brexit & European elections uncertainties, especially in France. FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: Mayura.hooper@ prudential.com Bonds: Global bond yields declined in February led by a big decline in Eurozone and U.K., a modest decline in the U.S. while Japanese yields inched up. Looking ahead, bond yields are likely to remain under upward pressure: 1) Improved Global Growth with stronger U.S. GDP growth fueled by Trump stimulus. Eurozone and U.K. are on track to improved growth in 2017, while Japanese GDP is expected to remain steady with export recovery; 2) Rate Hikes with the Fed on track for three rate hikes in 2017, with risk of more aggressive hikes if U.S. inflation rises further with Trump reflation. The BoE is likely to remain on hold in 2017 but has left itself open to tighten or loosen policy depending on the impact of Brexit; 3) Rising Inflation as higher oil and commodity prices pushing up headline inflation in U.S. (2.5%), Eurozone (2.0%) and U.K. (1.8%). However, bonds remain supported by: 1) ECB & BoJ QE Stimulus. The ECB continues its QE buying, having extended the program to 2017 year-end. The BoJ continues the purchase of JGBs so that the 10-year yield remains around 0%; 2) Safe haven demand from Brexit & European election uncertainties. 1 *Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. (PIIA) is a business of Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI), which is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, a company headquartered in the United Kingdom. For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice. See Disclosures on the last page for important information.

2 Market Outlook: Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth. Boost to U.S. Earnings & GDP Growth with Trump Reflation. ECB & BoJ Continue QE, Modest Fed Hikes. Improved Emerging Markets Growth & Some Rate Cuts Bond Yields likely to Remain Under Upward Pressure with Stronger U.S. GDP Growth on Trump Reflation, Rising Headline Inflation, Risk of More Aggressive Fed Tightening & ECB QE Taper. Stock Market Outlook (March): The global stock market rally resumed in February after a pause in late January with solid Q4 earnings reports and President Trump signaling tax cuts, roll-back of regulations and increased spending on infrastructure and defense. The developed markets index gained 2.9% in February, up 5.3% in 2017 YTD (through March 2 nd ). Emerging Markets rose 1.6% in February, with 2017 YTD gains of 5.9%. Looking ahead, equity markets are transitioning from liquidity-driven markets to earnings-driven markets with the rally fueled by solid earnings growth. Further stock market gains are likely to be driven by: 1) Strong Earnings Growth in 2017 after Q Rebound; 2) Improved Global Growth as Strong U.S. GDP Growth on Trump Reflation lifts Other Developed & Emerging Economies; 3) Liquidity & Interest Rate Backdrop Remains Favorable, but Less Supportive in However, the Fed stimulus is likely to be replaced by Trump fiscal stimulus. While markets are supported solid earnings and strengthening GDP, equity valuations have become expensive and likely to be headwinds for further market gains. In addition, stocks continue to face several risks which could keep markets volatile. These include: 1) Fed turning more hawkish in response to increasing inflationary pressures from Trump fiscal stimulus; 2) Trump administration embarking on protectionist policies and trade conflicts; and 3) Brexit & European political uncertainty with elections in France, Germany, Netherlands, Czech Republic and snap elections in Italy. 1) Strong Global Earnings Growth in 2017 with Boost to U.S. Earnings from Trump Tax Cuts, Reduced Regulations & Increased Spending: Global earnings growth is expected to be strong in 2017, around 13%, after recovering in H U.S. earnings are expected to strengthen to over 12% in 2017 (from 1% in 2016) with a boost from Trump s tax cuts, reduced regulations and increased spending. Earnings in Eurozone (+12%) and UK (+21%) are expected to rebound after the declines in 2016, while Japanese earnings expectations (+13%) have been revised higher with the yen weakening in late Emerging Markets earnings (+16%) are expected to strengthen in 2017 with improving GDP growth and rising commodity prices. U.S. earnings are expected to strengthen in 2017 to over 12% (from 1% earnings growth in 2016) driven by Trump s reflationary policies. However, details of the tax cuts, reduced regulations and increased fiscal spending are not yet available. Nonetheless, President Trump in his first address to U.S. Congress on February 28 th indicated he was calling for a $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan and a $54bn increase in defense spending. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin indicated that the Trump administration was working with U.S. Congress on plans for corporate and personal tax cuts, and set an August deadline for its launch. The corporate tax cuts and reduced regulation are expected to boost U.S. earnings growth and lead to stronger GDP growth, which in turn should contribute to stronger earnings growth. Further, Energy and Material sector earnings are expected to improve with the gains in oil and commodity prices. Financials earnings are likely to benefit from better interest margins with the Fed on track to hike rates. In the Q4 U.S. earnings reporting season currently underway, earnings are tracking 6.8% YoY, improving from the +4.3% pace in Q3. Eurozone earnings growth in 2017 is expected to rise 12% after rebounding in Q Eurozone Q earnings growth is tracking around 15.1% YoY after declining -5% in Q3. Of the 90 companies in the STOXX 600 which have reported results, 53.3% beat expectations. Q4 earnings have been driven by Consumer Discretionary (+81%), Materials (+21%), and Energy (+18%) while Telecomms (-26%) and Utilities (-20%) were drags. Japanese earnings growth expectations for 2017 have been revised modestly higher to around 13% with the boost from the yen depreciation and with increased government spending. Japanese earnings expectations have improved with the yen remaining weak against the dollar, which is boosting the earnings of exporters. Financing costs remain low with the BoJ continuing its QE asset purchase policy and banks expected to benefit from the steepening of the yield curve with the BoJ fixing the 10-year yield around 0%. 2 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

3 Emerging Markets earnings growth is expected to strengthen to around 16% in 2017 after around 8% in EM Asia earnings growth has been revised higher to around 13% after 2% in Latin American earnings are expected to rise around 19% in 2017, while EMEA earnings growth has been revised higher to around 11%. 2) Improved Global Growth as Strong U.S. GDP Growth on Trump Reflation likely to lift Other Developed & Emerging Economies: The global economy ended 2016 with good momentum in Q4 and remains on track to strengthen in 2017 with a boost from stronger U.S. GDP growth fueled by Trump tax cuts, increased spending and reduced regulation. U.S. GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2017 driven by Trump tax cuts, reduced regulation and increased spending on infrastructure and defense. Earlier, U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.9% annualized in Q4 (second estimate) from the 3.5% pace in Q3. The Q4 slowdown was largely driven by a big drag from trade as the boost to Q3 GDP from soybean exports was reversed in Q4. The headline GDP exaggerates the slowdown as U.S. domestic demand remained solid with gross domestic purchases, strengthening to 3.5% in Q4 from 2.6% in Q3. Eurozone GDP growth was stable at 1.6% in Q4. Among the individual countries, Spain remained solid at 2.8%, France strengthened to1.6% from 0.8% in Q3, while Germany rebounded to 1.6% after the Q3 weakness. Portugal GDP was strong at 2.4%, however, growth disappointed in Italy, Netherlands and Greece. Looking ahead to 2017, Eurozone GDP growth is expected to improve to around 1.8%, driven by consumption spending which is likely to be supported by falling unemployment. Further, exports are likely to improve with weaker Euro and stronger U.S. growth. The U.K. economy continued to defy expectations with GDP growth of 2.4% annualized in Q4, matching the pace from Q3. Looking ahead to 2017, U.K. GDP expectations continue to be revised higher as the Brexit impact remains more modest than expected. The BoE revised up its forecast for U.K. GDP growth for 2017 from 1.4% to 2%, with improved domestic conditions (easing of the fiscal squeeze, improved credit conditions and continued strong household spending) and stronger U.S and global economy. Japanese GDP growth is expected to improve in 2017 driven by rising business investment spending and positive contribution from net trade. Among Emerging Economies, China s GDP growth is expected to be stable around % in 2016 with bigger contribution from investment spending with higher infrastructure spending, while consumption and net exports remain stable. India s GDP growth slowed in late 2016 due to the government s demonetization program but early signs indicate that growth is picking up faster than expected in early India s GDP growth is expected to pick up, driven by solid consumer spending, pickup in industrial activity and increased government infrastructure spending. Brazil remains on track to emerge from recession in 2017 and post modest growth as aggressive rate cuts spur investment spending, the recovery in oil and commodity prices and weak Real boost exports. Russia s economy continues to improve following the contraction in 2016 with recovering oil prices, higher real wages, improving consumer confidence and strengthening Ruble. Taiwan s economy is expected to improve in 2017 with a favorable tech cycle boosting exports. Mexican GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in Q4, and is expected to continue to grow at a modest 2% pace in 2017 with rate hikes and trade uncertainty with the Trump administration. 3) Liquidity & Interest Rate Backdrop Remains Favorable but Less Supportive than in 2016: The global liquidity and interest rate backdrop remains favorable in 2017 but less supportive than in 2016 as continued QE stimulus from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), rate cuts in Brazil, Russia and some Emerging Markets is offset by rate hikes by the Fed, Mexico and other Emerging Markets. The Fed left policy unchanged at their late January-early February meeting. The Fed remains on track to gradual rate hikes and the Fed s dot plot indicates three rate hikes in However, the risk is for more aggressive rate hikes if the Trump administration s reflationary policies lead to inflationary pressures. At the January meeting, the Fed did not provide additional guidance on the timing of the next rate hike. Market expectations are for the next hike to take place in June. However, expectations for a March rate hike are rising. The ECB continues its QE buying in 2017, having extended the program to 2017 year-end, but slowing the pace of purchases to 60bn per month from March from 80bn. The ECB meets next on March 9th and is expected to leave policy unchanged. The ECB acknowledged the recent pick-up in inflation due to rising energy prices, but cautioned that there were no signs of an increase in core inflation. While the ECB remains under pressure to consider tapering QE on 3 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

4 inflation concerns, it is likely to look through the rise in headline inflation and continue QE buying, erring on the side of caution and not undertake premature tightening and risk short-circuiting the fragile recovery. The BoE remained on hold in early 2017, and revised up U.K. growth forecasts. The BoE has left itself open to tighten or loosen policy depending on the impact of Brexit uncertainty on growth and inflation. In Japan, the BoJ remained on hold in January and is likely to keep policy unchanged with inflation on a slow trajectory to turn positive, uncertainty about Trump s economic policies, and extent of Fed rate hikes. Emerging central bank policies are likely to be mixed in Central banks in Brazil, Russia and other EMs are likely to cut rates. The Brazilian central bank is on track to cut rates aggressively with inflation surprising on the downside. China tweaked policy, raising interest rates in early February with improving economic activity and the normalization in inflation. However, the PBoC is likely to move to an easing bias if the economy slows materially. In India, the RBI is likely to remain on hold in the near-term on lingering inflation concerns and the impact of the strong dollar and the rise in commodity prices. However, the bank has left itself room to cut rates if inflation falls sustainably towards its target or if the growth rebound from demonetization drag disappoints. Taiwan, Korea, Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland are expected to remain on hold with improving growth outlook. Mexico is expected to raise rates further in tandem with the Fed and to keep the peso from weakening. Turkey is expected to raise rates to contain inflation and defend the currency. 4) Equity Valuation have become Expensive: While markets are likely to be supported by strong earnings and strengthening GDP growth, equity valuations have become expensive and are likely to be headwinds for further gains. Stock market P/E multiples continue to rise with price gains. The Developed Markets (MSCI World Index) P/E multiple rose further to 22.5X in February from 22.1X in January. DM valuations remain above the long-term average of 20.5X (20 year average). The S&P 500 trailing P/E multiple rose to 21.8X in February from 21X in January with the index gaining 3.7% for the month. The U.S. P/E multiple remains above its long-term average of 19.5X. The P/E multiple for Japanese stocks (TOPIX) rose to 18.6X in February from 18.4X in January with the index rising 0.9% during the month. In Eurozone, the STOXX P/E rose to 24.6X in February from 24.4X in January with the index gaining 2.8% for the month. Emerging Market (EM) stock valuations inched higher in February to 15.1X from 14.95X in January with EM stocks posting 1.6% gains offset to some extent by solid trailing earnings growth. EM stock P/E multiples are now in line with their long term (20-year) historical average of 15X. Stocks-Bonds Earnings Yield Gaps were mixed in February with the yield gap reducing modestly in the U.S., unchanged in Japan and rising slightly in Eurozone. Bottom-line: The global stock market rally resumed in February after a pause in late January with solid Q4 earnings reports and President Trump signaling tax cuts, roll-back of regulations and increased spending on infrastructure and defense. The developed markets index gained 2.9% in February, up 5.3% in 2017 YTD (through March 2 nd ). Emerging Markets rose 1.6% in February, with 2017 YTD gains of 5.9%. Looking ahead, equity markets are transitioning from liquidity-driven markets to earnings-driven markets with the rally fueled by solid earnings growth. Further stock market gains are likely to be driven by: 1) Strong Earnings Growth in 2017: Global earnings growth is expected to be strong in 2017, around 13%, after recovering in H U.S. corporate earnings are expected to strengthen to over 12% in 2017 (from 1% in 2016) with a boost from Trump s tax cuts, reduced regulations and increased spending. Earnings in the Eurozone (+12%) and UK (+21%) are expected to rebound after the declines in 2016, while Japanese earnings expectations (+13%) have been revised higher with weakening yen. Emerging Markets earnings (+16%) are expected to strengthen in 2017 with improving GDP growth and rising commodity and energy prices; 2) Improved Global Growth as strong U.S. GDP growth on Trump reflation lifts other Developed and Emerging Economies. The global economy ended 2016 with good momentum and remains on track to strengthen in 2017 with a boost from stronger U.S. GDP growth fueled by Trump tax cuts, increased spending and reduced regulation. Eurozone and U.K. remain on track to improved growth in 2017 with ECB QE stimulus, euro and sterling weakness boosting exports. Japanese GDP is expected to remain steady with export recovery on weak yen. Emerging economies are likely to improve with steady growth in China, while India is rebounding faster than expected from the currency demonetization drag in late Brazil and Russia are on track to grow after recessions, while higher oil and commodity prices boost growth in other commodity exporters; 3) Liquidity & Interest Rate Backdrop Remains Favorable but Less Supportive in 2017: The global liquidity and interest rate backdrop remains favorable but less 4 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

5 supportive as continued QE stimulus from the ECB and BoJ, rate cuts in Brazil, Russia and some Emerging Markets is offset by rate hikes by the Fed, Mexico and other Emerging Markets. However, the reduced Fed stimulus is likely to be replaced by Trump fiscal stimulus. While markets are likely to be supported by strong earnings and strengthening GDP growth, equity valuations have become expensive and are likely to be headwinds for further market gains. In addition, stocks continue to face several risks which could keep markets volatile. These include: 1) The Fed turning more hawkish in response to increasing inflationary pressures from Trump fiscal stimulus; 2) Trump administration embarking on protectionist policies and trade conflicts; and 3) Brexit & European political uncertainty with elections in France, Germany, Netherlands, Czech Republic and snap elections in Italy. Bond Yields Decline in February. Yields likely to face Upward Pressure with Stronger U.S. GDP Growth on Trump Reflation, Rising Inflation, Risk of Aggressive Fed Tightening & ECB QE Taper Bond yields declined in February after being mixed in January. Yields were mixed through the first half of the month with U.S. headline inflation rising to 2.5% and Fed Chair Yellen leaving the door open for a March rate hike. However, yields declined in the second half with increasing concerns about French elections. Eurozone yields are down -23bps to 0.21%, led by falling French yields. U.K. yields fell an even bigger -34bps to 1.07%, while U.S. yields fell a modest -10bps to 2.39%. By contrast, Japanese yields edged down -3bps to 0.05% with yields already depressed. Looking ahead, bond yields are likely to remain under upward pressure: 1) Improved Global Growth with stronger U.S. GDP growth fueled by Trump tax cuts, increased spending and reduced regulation. Eurozone and U.K. remain on track to improved growth in 2017 with ECB QE stimulus, euro and sterling weakness boosting exports. Japanese GDP is expected to remain steady with export recovery on weak yen. Emerging economies growth is likely to improve modestly with steady growth in China, India rebounding from the currency demonetization drag, and Brazil and Russia on track to growth after recessions; 2) Rate Hikes with the Fed on track to raise rates three times in 2017 with risk of more aggressive rate hikes if U.S. inflation rises further with Trump reflation. The BoE is likely to remain on hold in 2017, but has left itself open to tighten or loosen policy depending on the impact of Brexit uncertainty on growth and the impact of weaker Sterling on inflation; 3) Rising Inflation as higher oil and commodity prices push up headline inflation in U.S. (2.5%), Eurozone (2.0%) and U.K. (1.8%). However, bonds remain supported by: 1) ECB & BoJ continue QE Buying. The ECB continues its QE buying in 2017, having extended the program from March 2017 to year-end. President Draghi downplayed the recent increase in headline inflation, and signaled that the ECB is unlikely to undertake premature tightening. The BoJ continues the purchase of JGBs so that the 10-year yield remains around 0%. The BoE is likely to remain on hold due to Brexit risks; 2) Safe haven demand from Brexit & European political uncertainty with elections in France, Germany, Netherlands, Czech Republic and risk of snap elections in Italy. Investment Strategy: Asset Allocation: Equity Rally to Continue with Stronger Earnings Growth & Improved GDP Growth with Trump Reflation Stocks - Keep Overweight as the equity rally is likely to continue, fueled by solid earnings growth and strengthening GDP growth with Trump tax cuts, increased spending and reduced regulation, ECB and BoJ continuing QE, and rate cuts by some Emerging central banks. Bonds Remain Underweight as yields are likely to remain under upward pressure with U.S. GDP growth strengthening with Trump stimulus, improved GDP growth in Eurozone, U.K., headline inflation rising, the Fed on track for three rate hikes in 2017 with risk of more aggressive rate hikes. 5 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

6 Global Equity Strategy: Remain Overweight in U.S., Modest Overweight in Emg Mkts & Japan, Underwt in Eurozone & U.K. U.S.: Remain Overweight as the equity rally is likely to continue with stronger earnings & GDP growth with Trump tax cuts, reduced regulations and increased spending. However, more aggressive Fed rate hikes could cut short the rally. Emerging Markets: Remain Modest Overweight with improving earnings outlook, rate cuts by some EM central banks. EM growth on track to improve with steady growth in China, India rebound from demonetization drag, Brazil and Russia recover. However, reduced capital flows are a negative. Japan: Remain Modest Overweight with solid earnings and recent yen depreciation further boosting earnings and BoJ continues QE buying. However, GDP growth remains modest. U.K.: Remain Modest Underweight with hard or soft Brexit uncertainty, fresh BoE stimulus less-likely with improved growth & rising inflation. Eurozone: Keep Modest Underweight with modest GDP growth, elevated political uncertainty with elections in several countries, ECB continues QE buying but risk of QE taper with rising inflation. Global Bond Market Strategy: Yields remain under Upward Pressure with Improved Growth, Rising Inflation & Fed Tightening Japan JGBs: Modest Overweight with JGB yields likely to remain low with inflation remaining near zero, modest GDP growth & BoJ continuing QE. EM Debt: Modest Overweight with improving growth outlook with China stable, Brazil and Russia recover from recessions, rate cuts likely in some Emerging Markets with falling inflation. However, risk of continued capital outflows with higher Treasury yields and strong dollar. Eurozone: Remain Neutral with modest GDP growth, and the ECB continuing QE asset purchases. Rise in headline inflation unlikely to prompt ECB to taper QE as core inflation remains low. U.K. Gilts: Modest Underweight with BoE on hold with rising inflation & growth rebound, Brexit uncertainty continues. U.S. Treasuries: Modest Underweight as Treasury yields likely to remain under pressure with U.S. GDP strengthening with Trump stimulus, Fed continues rate hikes and risk of more aggressive rate hikes if Trump stimulus fuels inflation. Global Sector Strategy: Overweight: Financials, Info Tech; Modest Overweight: Energy, Materials & Industrials; Neutral: Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary & Telecomms; Underweight: Consumer Staples, Real Estate & Utilities. Follow us on Twitter: Disclosures: Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. (PIIA), a Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI) company, is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States. PFI, a company incorporated and with its principal place of business in the United States of America is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, a company headquartered in the United Kingdom. The commentary presented is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. This material has been prepared by PIIA on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information. All opinions and views constitute judgments of PIIA as of the date of this writing, and are subject to change at any time without notice. There can be no assurance that any forecast made herein will be realized. 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The strategies and asset allocations discussed do not refer to any service or product offered by PIIA or by its affiliates The global asset and strategy allocation models presented are hypothetical allocation models shown for illustrative purposes only, and do not necessarily reflect the management of any actual account. Following the allocation recommendations presented will not necessarily result in profitable investments. Past performance is not an assurance of future results. Nothing herein should be viewed as investment advice to adopt any investment strategy, nor should it be considered an offer to provide investment advisory or other allocation services Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities. Prudential, the Prudential logo and the Rock symbol are service marks of Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. 6 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.