Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014

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1 PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth Accelerates, Eurozone Recovery Gains Traction, Japan Growth Remains Solid & Emerging Economies Stabilize & Improve Fed Starts Gradual, Measured, Data-dependent QE Taper & Keep Rates Low through Further Easing Measures by ECB with Risk of Eurozone Deflation. BoJ Continues Asset Purchases to Lift Inflation. Emerging Central Banks Steady / Some Rate Cuts John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist Low Headline & Core Inflation in U.S., Japan Deflation Easing, Deflation Risk in Eurozone. Inflation Stabilizing in Emerging Economies John Praveen s Global Economic Outlook for 2014 sees global GDP growth strengthening, central banks keeping interest rates low and continuing to provide liquidity, inflation remains low in the developed economies, and stabilizing in the emerging economies. Global GDP is on track to strengthen in 2014 with U.S. & U.K. GDP accelerating, the Eurozone recovery gaining traction, continued solid growth in Japan and stabilizing growth in China and other Emerging Economies. U.S. GDP Growth is on track to strengthen to around 2.8% (from 2% in 2013) with the fiscal drag fading, consumption and business investment spending improving, and housing remains solid. Eurozone GDP expected to grow 1% in 2014 led by Germany and modest growth in the Periphery after contracting -0.4% in Japan GDP growth is expected to remain solid in 2014 as the April sales tax hike is offset by fresh fiscal stimulus and increased business spending, while the weak yen boosts exports. Emerging economies growth is stabilizing and on track to improve with stronger demand from developed economies and some easing measures after disappointing growth in FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone: theresa.miller@ prudential.com Developed central banks are expected to keep interest rates at current record lows through 2014 and continue to provide liquidity. The Fed announced in December that QE taper will start in January 2014, but reassured markets that the taper will be measured and data-dependent, while rates will remain at current low through The ECB is likely to undertake further easing measures with the risk of Eurozone sliding into deflation. The BoJ is likely to continue asset purchases and expand them if Japanese inflation does not reach the Bank s 2% target. Emerging central banks are likely to unwind some of the tightening measures undertaken in 2013, and some banks are likely to cut rates. Headline inflation in the developed economies continues to remain low in 2014 with Eurozone precariously close to deflation, while deflation pressures are easing in Japan. U.S. headline and core inflation is expected to remain below the Fed s 2% target. Inflation in the Emerging Economies is expected to stabilize around 4.6% YoY in *Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. (PIIA) is a business of Prudential Financial, Inc., (PFI), which is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, a company headquartered in the United Kingdom. For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice. See Disclosures on the last page for important information.

2 Interest Rate Policy & Liquidity Measures: Fed Starts Gradual, Measured, Data-dependent QE Taper & Keep Rates Low through Further Easing Measures by ECB with Risk of Eurozone Deflation. BoJ Continues Asset Purchases to Push Inflation to 2% Target. BoE Steady. Emerging Central Banks Steady / Some Rate Cuts Developed central banks are expected to keep interest rates at current record lows through 2014 and continue to provide ample liquidity. The Fed announced in December that QE Taper begins in January, but reassured markets that the taper will be measured and data-dependent, while rates will remain at current low through The ECB is likely to undertake further easing measures with the risk of Eurozone deflation. The BoJ is likely to continue asset purchases and expand them if inflation does not reach its 2% target. Emerging central banks are likely to unwind the tightening measures undertaken in 2013, and some banks are likely to cut rates. The Fed starts 2014 under a new Chairperson with Janet Yellen taking over from Ben Bernanke in January. With the economy and labor market in steady improvement, the Fed announced in December 2013 that QE taper will begin in January, reducing bond buying from $85bln to $75 bln. However, the Fed reassured markets that the taper will be gradual, measured and data-dependent. The Fed also provided additional dovish forward guidance on rates, stating that it expects to keep the Fed Funds rate at its current level "well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5% threshold. In 2014, the Yellen Fed is likely to use enhanced forward guidance to reassure markets that taper does not imply tightening and that rates will remain low through The ECB cut the Eurozone policy rate to new record low of 0.25% in 2013 to ward off disinflationary pressures with Eurozone headline inflation falling below 1%. With elevated unemployment and declining labor costs, the ECB expects a "prolonged period of low inflation, to be followed by a gradual upward movement" to 2%. Thus to prevent deflation from taking hold, the ECB is likely to undertake further easing measures like QE and/or use other unconventional tools (negative deposit rates and forward guidance) since Eurozone rates are near zero. At the December ECB meeting press conference, President Draghi emphasized that the ECB has a powerful artillery of instruments available to prevent deflation. In U.K. the BoE was on hold in 2013 with strengthening GDP growth and elevated inflation. In 2014, the improving pace of GDP growth is likely to put pressure on the BoE to begin tightening policy. However, declining inflation and Governor Carney s preference for targeting levels rather than growth rates, suggests that the BoE is likely to remain on hold through 2014 and wait until the output gap has narrowed further before hiking rates. The BoJ is likely to continue its accommodative monetary policy during 2014 and likely to increase its QE purchases in order to achieve its 2% inflation target and provide support to the ongoing GDP recovery. While inflation turned positive during 2013, it is still well below the bank s 2% target. The BoJ has reiterated its commitment to a 2% inflation target and has pledged that it would take additional easing measures if inflation does not reach and stay above 2%. The BoJ is expected to retain its asset purchases and potentially increase them to reach its inflation target, offset the impact of the sales tax hike in April The BoJ is likely to use increased ETF purchases or an extension of maturities of its JGB holdings to push inflation towards its target. Emerging Market (EM) central banks started 2013 with most countries keeping rates low or cutting further on signs of slowing growth. But rising inflation and currency depreciation forced some EM central banks to reverse course and raise rates (Brazil, India and Indonesia). The outlook for EM banks remains mixed with divergence in inflation and growth outlook within countries. Some central banks are likely to unwind the tightening measures undertaken in 2013, some banks are likely to cut rates, and others remain steady. 2 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

3 Developed Economies GDP Growth: Improving Growth with U.S. & U.K. Growth Accelerating, Eurozone Recovering. Japan Remains Solid despite Sales Tax Hike Global GDP growth expected to strengthen with U.S. & U.K. GDP growth accelerating, the Eurozone recovery gaining traction, continued solid growth in Japan as the impact of sales tax hike is offset by fresh fiscal stimulus, and stabilizing growth in China and other Emerging Economies. U.S. GDP growth is expected to accelerate to around 2.8% in 2014 after the disappointing, below-trend growth of 1.9% in The GDP acceleration is driven by a smaller fiscal drag and the private sector continuing to strengthen. Consumer spending was sluggish in 2013 (around 2%) as disposable income was depressed by higher personal taxes and social insurance contributions with the expiration of the 2011 payroll tax cut. Consumption spending is on track to strengthen with wealth effect from the rising stock market, improving labor market and completion of household deleveraging. Business investment spending is expected to post faster growth with improved outlook for government and consumer spending. Housing remains healthy but expected to make a smaller contribution with the back-up in mortgage rates. Trade should be a smaller drag with lower oil imports and a boost to exports from recovery in Eurozone and Emerging Economies. The Eurozone economy emerged from recession in Q and GDP growth is expected to gain traction in 2014 with further strength in Germany and other Core economies, while the Peripheral economies returning to growth. The ECB expects growth to strengthen in 2014 with improving domestic demand, accommodative monetary policy, rising demand for exports, improving financial markets, and lower energy inflation. However, the ECB noted risks to growth from elevated unemployment and continued balance sheet adjustments. The ECB also cautioned that "developments in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties" and insufficient implementation of government structural reforms are also risks to growth. Eurozone GDP is expected to grow 1% in 2014 after -0.4% in Among Eurozone economies, German GDP is expected to grow 1.7% YoY in 2014 after the anemic 0.5% growth in The outlook for France is more cautious and French GDP is expected to grow a modest 0.8% YoY in 2014 after just 0.2% in Political risks and elevated unemployment have kept Italian GDP growth weak in Italian GDP is expected to grow a modest 0.4% YoY in 2014 after contracting -1.8% in In Spain, elevated unemployment and balance sheet adjustments depressed Spanish GDP. Expectations are for Spanish GDP to grow a modest 0.6% YoY in 2014 after declining -1.3% in U.K. GDP growth improved during 2013 with over 3% growth in H2. U.K. GDP is expected to rise 2.3% YoY in 2014 after 1.4% in Japanese GDP grew around 2% in 2013 driven by Abe fiscal stimulus, BoJ monetary reflation and the Yen depreciating over 20%. Looking ahead, GDP growth in 2014 is expected to remain solid, around 1.8% as the impact of the consumption tax hike due in April 2014 is offset by increased government spending with fresh Abe stimulus package of 6tn. Further, consumption spending is likely to be supported by wages improving due to tighter labor market. Business investment spending is likely to contribute to GDP growth with the improvement in Tankan business confidence and corporate profit margins as well as the decline in real interest rates. Net exports are expected to contribute positively to GDP growth with exports benefiting from the weak yen and improving global GDP growth during 2014 while the price of energy imports are expected to rise modestly. 3 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

4 Emerging Economies Growth: Emerging Economies Growth Stabilizes and Improves in 2014 with Stronger Demand from Developed Economies & Some Easing Measures Emerging economies GDP growth disappointed in 2013 as they struggled with uncertainty surrounding Fed QE taper, currency depreciation, weak exports, rising inflation and social unrest in key emerging economies such as Brazil and Turkey. Looking ahead, growth in China is expected to stabilize around 7.8% YoY in 2014 from around 7.6% in The risk of a dramatic slowdown is low as the government maintains a growth target above 7%. Growth in India disappointed in 2013, but is likely to recover to around 5% in 2014 contingent on the outcome of monsoons, export recovery and government initiatives to promote investment. Korea s economy is expected to grow 3.6% in 2014, while Taiwan is expected to grow 3.4%. GDP Growth in Brazil is likely to remain weak in 2014, around 2.4% with the central bank raising rates from 7.25% to 10% in Mexico s economy is likely to benefit from the pick-up in U.S. growth, with the economy expected to grow 3.2% in 2014 after just 1.2% in Emerging European economies are likely to benefit from the ongoing stabilization in the Eurozone with growth in Emerging Europe expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2014 after growing around 1.9% in Inflation Outlook: Low Headline & Core Inflation in U.S., Deflation Pressures Easing in Japan. Deflation Risk in Eurozone. Inflation Stabilizing in Emerging Economies Headline inflation in the developed economies is likely to remain low in 2014, with deflationary pressures easing in Japan, but Eurozone now precariously close to deflation. U.S. inflation is expected to remain well below the Fed s 2% target in 2014 with GDP growth remaining below-trend despite strengthening, and still plenty of labor market slack keeping wages pressures muted. U.S. headline inflation is expected to inch higher to around 1.7% from around 1.5% in 2013 as U.S. GDP growth strengthens during Core CPI is expected around 1.8% and core PCE around 1.5%. Eurozone inflation slowed sharply during 2013, falling from 2% YoY in January to 0.9% in November, raising the specter of deflation. The high unemployment and sharp decline in unit labor costs pushed Eurozone inflation precariously close to deflation territory with headline inflation falling to a low of 0.7 in October Looking ahead, the modest pace of Eurozone GDP growth in 2014 is unlikely to make a dent into the double-digit unemployment rates and clear the labor slack in the periphery. Hence, the ECB expects a "prolonged period of low inflation with headline inflation just around 1% in The ECB also identified risks to inflation from rising non-core inflation and the impact from administered and indirect taxes. To prevent deflation from taking hold, the ECB is likely to undertake further easing measures using QE & other unconventional tools (negative deposit rates & forward guidance) since rates are near zero. Japanese inflation is expected to trend higher in 2014 after turning positive in H Prices are expected to be under upward pressure from the consumption tax hike in April. In addition, the yen is expected to weaken further adding to higher imported inflation. Japanese inflation is expected to average around 1.5% in 2014 after rising around 0.3% in The BoJ reiterated commitment to its 2% inflation target and pledged to undertake additional easing measures if inflation did not rise to and stay above 2%. Emerging economies inflation rose through 2013 and remains uncomfortably high in 2014 in some emerging economies. In Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, India, amongst others, inflation is above central bank target with currency weakness magnifying the problem. Inflation in the emerging economies as a whole is expected to stabilize in 2014, around 4.5% YoY from 4.4% in Follow us on Twitter: 4 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

5 Disclosures: Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. (PIIA), a Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI) company, is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States. Pramerica is a trade name used by PFI and its affiliated companies in select countries outside of the United States. PFI, a company incorporated and with its principal place of business in the United States of America is not affiliated in any manner with Prudential plc, a company headquartered in the United Kingdom. The commentary presented is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. This material has been prepared by PIIA on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information. All opinions and views constitute judgments of PIIA as of the date of this writing, and are subject to change at any time without notice. There can be no assurance that any forecast made herein will be realized. Distribution of this information to any person other than the person to whom it was originally delivered and to such person s advisers is unauthorized and no part of this material may be reproduced or distributed further without the written approval of PIIA. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. The companies, securities, sectors and/or markets referenced herein are included solely for illustrative purposes to highlight the economic trends, conditions, and the investment process, but may or may not be held by accounts actually managed by PIIA. The strategies and asset allocations discussed do not refer to any service or product offered by PIIA or by its affiliates The global asset and strategy allocation models presented are hypothetical allocation models shown for illustrative purposes only, and do not necessarily reflect the management of any actual account. Following the allocation recommendations presented will not necessarily result in profitable investments. Past performance is not an assurance of future results. Nothing herein should be viewed as investment advice to adopt any investment strategy, nor should it be considered an offer to provide investment advisory or other allocation services Prudential Financial, Inc. and it related entities. Prudential, the Prudential logo and the Rock symbol are service marks of Prudential Financial, Inc. and it related entities, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. 5 For informational use only. Not intended as investment advice.

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