Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios

Transcription

1 Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios investments and has engaged BlackRock Investment Management, LLC as the portfolio strategist. The portfolio strategist constructs and monitors the model portfolios. They do not have any discretionary authority or control with respect to purchasing or selling securities or making investments for investors. BlackRock is not affiliated with Ameriprise Financial. See fact sheet for additional details about the portfolio. Executive Summary Market expectations for the path of U.S. monetary policy were a key driver of global markets. Over the quarter, bond yields fell, the dollar weakened and U.S. stocks outperformed their international counterparts as investors priced in fewer interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Both the Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Sector Managed Growth Portfolio and Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Global Managed Growth Portfolio were essentially flat relative to their respective Blended Benchmarks. Within U.S. equities, overweights to energy and healthcare added value, while underweights to industrials and financials detracted. In terms of the global portfolio, exposure to emerging market equities proved mixed as gains in Brazil and Hong Kong were offset by positioning in China and Korea. Market Environment The third quarter broadly saw a continuation of the economic trends that had prevailed during the first half of 2017 as global growth remained firm while inflation trends generally disappointed. Given this backdrop, global equities rose, bond yields moved sideways and the U.S. dollar weakened. Market expectations for the path of U.S. monetary policy were a key driver of global markets throughout the quarter. Initial weakness in inflation resulted in investors becoming increasingly sceptical that the Fed would be able to raise rates again before the end of the year. Consequently, for the majority of the quarter, U.S. bond yields and the dollar declined while, boosted by looser financial conditions, U.S. equities outperformed their international peers. These trends reversed toward the end of the quarter as a bounceback in U.S. inflation data, coupled with a relatively hawkish Fed September meeting, encouraged investors to price in a higher path for future U.S. interest rates. As a result, bond yields and the dollar posted moderate gains in the final weeks of the quarter, while U.S. equities underperformed their international counterparts. Meanwhile, other developed central banks became increasingly upbeat on the growth outlook as monetary policymakers in the United Kingdom (U.K.), Canada and Europe moved toward tightening policy. For the quarter as a whole, global equities posted strong gains as growth data remained firm and financial conditions loosened. Emerging market equities demonstrated notable strength buoyed by both ongoing resilience in Chinese economic data and the tailwind of a weaker U.S. dollar. Global fixed income exhibited some volatility throughout the quarter. Initial weakness in inflation data supported a sharp move lower in bond yields as investors priced in a lower path of future interest rates. However, this partially unwound toward the end of the quarter as central bankers across the developed world continued to suggest that rates would likely move higher by more than markets anticipated. Review of Portfolio Changes and Performance Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Sector Managed Growth Portfolio Within the Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Sector Managed Growth Portfolio, positive performance was driven by an overweight in the energy sector, which weakened in August before rallying strongly in September on the back of a recovery in oil prices. Additionally, an overweight to the healthcare sector, 2017 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 1

2 initiated in mid-august, supported returns given strength in biotech stocks. These gains were partially offset by underweights in industrials and financials, both of which outperformed the S&P 500 Index due to signs of a rebound in growth and inflation. During the quarter, the portfolio tilted toward consumer discretionary versus industrials, yet reduced this preference toward the end of the period on the view that cost pressures would ease for manufacturers. Additionally, we recommended an increased exposure to healthcare given improving profitability due to lower costs, as well as the energy and consumer staples sectors on the basis of attractive valuations. Meanwhile, allocations to financials and real estate were reduced. Consumer staples exposure decreased due to our position that relatively high input costs, particularly in agriculture, rendering the sector less attractive from a profitability standpoint. The portfolio ended the period with overweights in energy, technology, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and healthcare and underweights in industrials, financials, real estate, utilities and telecom. Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Global Managed Growth Portfolio Similar to the Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Sector Managed Growth portfolio, the Global Managed Growth portfolio benefitted from overweights to U.S. energy and healthcare stocks, while underweights in domestic industrials and financials detracted. Outside of the U.S., a constructive view on Brazil boosted returns as Brazilian equities sold off in May before recovering beyond their prior peaks over the third quarter. Meanwhile, positive contributions from an overweight in Hong Kong equities were offset by an underweight in Chinese equities as the region broadly outperformed the MSCI ACWI ex US Index. Additionally, exposure to Korean equities dampened performance as markets declined on geopolitical concerns. From a broad asset allocation perspective, the portfolio expressed a preference for stocks over bonds given our upbeat outlook on global growth. Within equities, we suggested an overweight to U.S. stocks on the back of improving economic momentum, tilting toward cyclicals versus defensives. In terms of international equity positioning, we recommended an add to Japan given the combination of consumer strength and loose monetary policy. Exposure to emerging market equities increased given potential tailwinds from U.S. dollar weakness, capturing profits on an allocation to Brazil toward the end of the period. By contrast, exposure decreased to the U.K. and Spain given weakness in trade and recent euro strength, respectively. The portfolio ended the period with overweights in the US, Japan, Korea, Australia and Turkey and underweights in the U.K., Canada, France and China. Outlook The global economic expansion continues to strengthen with encouraging signs of a pick up in global demand. We expect this trend to persist and anticipate that inflation will gradually rise over the coming quarters. As a result, central banks across the world are likely to move toward a tigher stance of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, we anticipate that global equities will outperform bonds. Within the U.S., we are constructive on the outlook for domestic equities. Economic growth has reaccelerated after a softer start to the year and recent weakness in the U.S. dollar should be an additional tailwind to companies who earn revenue overseas. We expect that core inflation is likely to firm following a notable deceleration at the start of the year. This should allow the Fed to continue to raise rates over the coming quarters. As a result, we recommend retaining an underweight position in U.S. fixed income. In terms of sector positioning, strength in job growth and some signs of a pick up in wages should be supportive of consumer spending. Consequently, the portfolio retains a tilt to consumer discretionary and consumer staples over industrials. The portfolio also holds an overweight position in energy, that we recommend retaining since we feel that stronger commodity prices coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar should provide a tailwind for the sector. Healthcare is an additional overweight as lower cost pressures in the sector should support relative outperformance versus other sectors within the S&P 500 Index. In terms of underweights, we are cautious on the outlook for real estate and utilities, both of which should face headwinds as interest rates rise. We anticipate that European growth and inflation will continue to improve over the coming quarters as consumer spending remains buoyed by an improving labor market. Against this backdrop, the European Central Bank should move toward further tightening policy with a tapering of its Asset Purchase Program likely to occur in the 2017 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3 final quarter of the year. While growth remains robust, the combination of tighter monetary policy and a stronger euro leaves us cautious on the outlook for the equity market particularly in Spain and France. In Asia, the economic backdrop has remained stable and we expect that strength in the global economy should support the more tradesensitive economies in the region. As a result, we are comfortable with overweight positions in Japan and Korea. Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Portfolios Composite Performance (as of Sept. 30, 2017) Past performance is not a guarantee of future results Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4 Disclosures Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios investments and has engaged BlackRock Investment Management, LLC as the portfolio strategist. The portfolio strategist constructs and monitors the model portfolios. They do not have any discretionary authority or control with respect to purchasing or selling securities or making investments for investors. BlackRock is not affiliated with Ameriprise Financial. BlackRock s comments are provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment advice or predictive of any future market performance in the global emerging markets. BlackRock s views are current as of the date of this communication and are subject to change rapidly as economic and market conditions dictate. This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and processes used may not achieve the desired results. Performance Individual account performance may vary and the actual return of a client s account will be reduced by the wrap fee and other expenses that will be incurred by that client. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance information shown. Depending on the strategy, the composite performance may be calculated by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. or the Investment Manager. Annualized performance is calculated on a trailing basis. In nearly all cases, the composites are created on an asset and time-weighted basis using month-end market values and returns. Performance reflected for the current quarter may be preliminary, that is, calculated prior to obtaining composite performance data for actual accounts within the portfolio. Preliminary performance does not reflect reinvestment of dividends or other distributions. Composite performance data utilizing actual accounts within the portfolio reflects reinvestment of any dividends and other distributions. Gross performance is calculated either before the deduction of fees and transaction costs, and in other instances before the deduction of fees but net of transaction costs. Net composite performance is calculated by deducting the highest annual program wrap fee for the applicable strategy from the gross results. It may be understated if the gross results already reflect the deduction of transaction costs. Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Sector Managed Growth The performance indicated above is composed of 1) a single account invested in the portfolio model from 10/1/15 to 12/31/16, and 2) all eligible fully discretionary accounts from 1/1/17 to present. Unless otherwise stated, the composite performance presented is shown both gross and net of Max Wrap Fee and other distributions and applicable expenses of the underlying mutual funds. The composite performance includes the reinvestment of dividends where permitted. Performance reflects Max Wrap Fee of 2.5% prior to 4/1/17 and 2.0% thereafter. Returns are annualized for periods of one year or greater. Individual account performance may vary. Active Opportunity ETF BlackRock Global Managed Growth The performance indicated above is composed of 1) a single account invested in the portfolio model from 10/1/15 to 12/31/16, and 2) all eligible fully discretionary accounts from 1/1/17 to present. Unless otherwise stated, the composite performance presented is shown both gross and net of Max Wrap Fee and other distributions and applicable expenses of the underlying mutual funds. The composite performance includes the reinvestment of dividends where permitted. Performance reflects Max Wrap Fee of 2.5% prior to 4/1/17 and 2.0% thereafter. Returns are annualized for periods of one year or greater. Individual account performance may vary. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and processes used may not achieve the desired results Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5 Blended Benchmarks The Blended Benchmark returns presented reflect a weighted combination of multiple indices. For the Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios, the Blended Benchmark used is selected by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., and corresponds to the asset allocation mix of the portfolios as reflected. Indexes These indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency). MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) is a free float adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI consists of 46 country indexes comprising 23 developed and 23 emerging market country indexes. The developed market country indexes included are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The emerging market country indexes included are: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, as of June MSCI All Country World Index ex US (net of taxes) (MSCI ACWI ex US - net) is a net of taxes, free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance in the global developed and emerging markets excluding the United States. Standard & Poor s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a basket of 500 stocks that are considered to be widely held. The S&P 500 index is weighted by market value (shares outstanding times share price), and its performance is thought to be representative of the stock market as a whole. The S&P 500 index was created in 1957 although it has been extrapolated backwards to several decades earlier for performance comparison purposes. This index provides a broad snapshot of the overall US equity market. Over 70% of all US equity value is tracked by the S&P 500. Inclusion in the index is determined by Standard & Poor s and is based upon their market size, liquidity, and sector. Portfolio Risks The portfolios are subject to risks associated with the underlying funds including, but not limited to: market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, foreign/emerging markets risk, sector risk and risks associated with alternative investments. See the fund prospectus for a definition of these and other specific risks associated with the underlying funds. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to potential political and economic instability, currency fluctuations and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets. There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6 Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss. Please review the Ameriprise Managed Accounts Client Disclosure Brochure or, if you have elected to pay a consolidated advisory fee, the Ameriprise Managed Accounts and Financial Planning Service Disclosure Brochure, for a full description of services offered, including fees and expenses. Investment products are not federally or FDIC insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by, any financial institution, and involves investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. Investment advisory products and services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment adviser Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 6