SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. Market Perspective The Pain Trade. Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Director, Chief Market Strategist March 6, 2017

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1 SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. Market Perspective The Pain Trade Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Director, Chief Market Strategist March 6, 2017

2 The Pain Trade Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves. Peter Lynch Our 2017 outlook advised investors to lean bullish, while recognizing the range of potential outcomes widens given policy dependencies (upside and downside risks). Thus far, the three primary supports for our positive equity outlook appear intact: 1) a global reset is underway as underlying economic trends are improving; 2) profit trends are rising; and 3) positive sentiment is leading to the strongest retail stock fund inflows in several years. Still, the strength and persistency of the current up leg the S&P 500 has not had a 1% down day since October 2016 and is now in the longest stretch of this bull market without so much as a 5% pullback has been impressive but also painful for those underinvested. At this point, the market appears extended near term and is likely to take a breather; however, the intermediate outlook points higher. Thus, we would stick with the positive trend and worry less about trying to time the next pullback perfectly. For investors on the sidelines, we do not believe it is too late to put some money to work, though we generally recommend a dollar cost averaging approach, where a set amount of money is added on a regular basis (and potentially increased on pullbacks). This should help to relieve the angst of putting fresh money to work at record market highs. From an allocation perspective, we maintain our stock bias relative to bonds. Within equities, we keep our long-standing US tilt and cyclical sector bias. We are, though, seeing improvement in international markets, where valuations, unlike in the US, remain below cycle highs and profits are turning higher. Specifically, we remain bullish on Japan, we would view pullbacks in Europe related to election uncertainties as tactical opportunities and are constructive on emerging markets. Although we recommend an underweight to fixed income, highquality bonds should be looked to as a shock absorber during bouts of stock market weakness. Indeed, even though the recent period in the stock market has been tranquil, there has only been one year since 1980 that didn t see at least one 5% setback. Regular investing does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Dollar Cost Averaging involves continuous investments in securities regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. 2

3 '50 '51 '54 '55 '61 '67 '71 '72 '75 '83 '85 '86 '87 '88 '91 '93 '95 '96 '97 '98 '04 '06 '11 '12 '13 Average Strong Starts to Years Tend to be a Good Market Omen When January and February have both seen positive returns, the S&P 500 has tacked on additional gains by year end in 23 of 25 instances (average gain = 12%). Keep in mind, though, the average pullback from a high at any given point was 9.9%. This data suggests the underlying market trend points higher, but investors should expect bumps along the way. 50. S&P 500 Returns for the Rest of the Year When January and February Were Both Positive % Returns (Mar through Dec) Maximum Intra-year Pullback % 9% 24% 17% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 6% 7% 4% 14% 5% 26% 16% 23% 17% 6% 11% 4% 22% 12% % -5% -9.9% Source: Strategas 3

4 US Stock Market is Now Most Overbought Since 1996 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the S&P 500, a measure of price momentum, last week reached 81%, its highest level in over 20 years (the indicator ranges from to 10). This indicator suggests the market is getting stretched short term and is due for a breather. The good news is after past signals, stocks still averaged a 9% gain over the next 12 months S&P 500 Relative Strength Index S&P 500 Average Returns After RSI >8* month months months months later later later later Average Gain 0.9% % 9.3% % Periods Positive 6 66% 69% 76% Data Source: FactSet; SunTrust IAG; Study done from 1928 to current (initial signal used above 8). The RSI is a momentum indictor that measures the speed and change of price movements over a 14-day period. It is rare to see this metric move above 8. 4

5 Longest Period of Bull Market Without 5% Pullback While we continue to lean bullish, we also recognize equities have gone the longest period of this bull market without so much as a 5% pullback. There have been 15 such pullbacks since this bull market began in 2009, and we expect to see a few this year as well. As long as economic and profit trends remain favorable, we view pullbacks as buying opportunities. S&P 500: Days Between 5%-plus Pullbacks Since Mar-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 Jun-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Feb-14 Oct-14 Aug-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG 5

6 Percentage of Bullish Advisors at Cycle High The latest Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index, shows bulls at 63% versus 16.5% bears, which is the widest spread of this cycle. Stocks have tended to pause short term after reaching these levels over the past few years S&P % Bulls minus Bears Data Source: Investors Intelligence, SunTrust PWM 6

7 Equity Fund Inflows Should Remain Supportive Prior to the election, stock mutual funds saw the greatest outflows since the financial crisis. However, since November retail investors have added nearly $100 billion into equities. There is scope for this to continue, given since the financial crisis investors have poured in about 2.5x more money into bonds relative to stocks. $40 $30 Monthly Equity Fund Flows (Mutual Funds & ETFs, Billions) $20 $10 $- $(10) $(20) $(30) Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Data Source: Haver, ICI 7

8 Stocks Can Rise Alongside Fed Rate Hikes During the last interest rate tightening cycle, which occurred from 2004 to 2006, the Fed raised short-term rates 17 straight times (from 1. to 5.25%); stocks still grinded higher with a total return for the S&P 500 of about 15%. A risk to the market is if the Fed raises rates much more aggressively than current expectations or economic data falters; this is not our base case but something to monitor. We continue to expect two to three rate hikes this year S&P '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 9% 8% 7% Federal Funds Rate 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Data Source: Haver, SunTrust IAG 8

9 Keeping a Stock Bias Relative to Bonds Stock valuations are on the high side of historical norms; this suggests longer-term returns will be below average. Nonetheless, in a world where there is a dearth of cheap assets, equities still appear attractive on a relative basis. Average S&P 500 Trailing P/E by Decade Average Bond P/E by Decade (100/10-Year Treasury Yield ~2.5%) s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Current 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Current Source: FactSet, Strategas, SunTrust IAG 9

10 Maintain US Bias but International Opportunities Remain We keep our US equity bias. However, unlike in the US, international valuations are below cycle highs. We remain positive on Japan, which is cheap, is cash rich, and has political stability. Tactical opportunities in Europe are likely to present themselves around the elections this year. Emerging Markets on the back of cheap valuations, solid economic trends, and improving earnings are also doing well despite trade protection and rising US dollar concerns Forward P/E* US Non-US Developed Markets Emerging Markets Data Source: FactSet, MSCI, SunTrust IAG; *A Price-to-Earnings Ratio is a metric used to value the stock market and takes into account the current price of an index or stock relative to its earnings, in this case projected 12-month profits. US represented by S&P 500; Non-US Developed Markets represented by MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets represented by MSCI EM. International investments are subject to special risks, such as political unrest, economic instability, and currency fluctuations. 10

11 International Profit Trends Continue to Improve Earnings trends in international markets which have negatively weighed on market performance in recent years are turning higher on better economic growth, policy support, and more competitive currencies. 1 5% -5% Non-US Developed International Markets Year-over-Year EPS Growth -1 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Emerging Markets Year-over-Year EPS Growth 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG; Non-US Developed Markets represented by MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets represented by MSCI EM. 11

12 Bonds Should Help Buffer Downside Market Shocks We continue to recommend a stock bias, however; given the potential for wider market outcomes this year, high-quality bonds should provide ballast for portfolios; intermediate-government bonds have risen in 22 of the 24 years that saw stocks decline. Further, a bad year in the bond market has historically been nothing like a bad year in stocks. Bonds Returns in Years When Stocks Were Down % 7% -8% -2% 9% 9% -8% -1% 2% 5% 3% 1% 1% -1-12% -8% 8% 6% 3% 5% 5% 6% -1% -1% -11% -9% -1-9% -15% 9% 1 13% 13% 13% 8% 1% -7% -5% -3% -9% -12% US Intermediate- Government Bonds S&P % -26% -22% % -37% -43% '29 '30 '31 '32 '34 '37 '39 '40 '41 '46 '53 '57 '62 '66 '69 '73 '74 '77 '81 '90 '00 '01 '02 '08 Source: Morningstar; Bond index = Ibbotson Intermediate-Government Bond Index; Stocks represented by S&P

13 Important Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to US investing. These risks include potential economic uncertainties of foreign countries and the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in emerging market countries, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies. Diversification does not ensure against loss and does not assure a profit. Services provided by the following affiliates of SunTrust Banks, Inc.: Banking products and services are provided by SunTrust Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank, SunTrust Delaware Trust Company and SunTrust Banks Trust Company (Cayman) Limited. Securities, brokerage accounts and insurance (including annuities) are offered by SunTrust Investment Services, Inc. (STIS), a SEC registered broker-dealer, member FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency. Investment advisory services are offered by SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. (STAS), and GenSpring Family Offices, LLC, each of which is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. SunTrust Bank and its affiliates and the directors, officers, employees and agents of SunTrust Bank and its affiliates (collectively, "SunTrust") are not permitted to give legal or tax advice. Clients of SunTrust should consult with their legal and tax advisors prior to entering into any financial transaction. While this information is believed to be accurate, SunTrust Banks, Inc., including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. Investment and Insurance Products: Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured Are not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but SunTrust Investment Services, Inc. (STIS) makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. STIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. STIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. The information and material presented in this commentary are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this commentary. Investing in any security or investment strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for you, and you may want to consult a financial advisor. Nothing in this material constitutes individual investment, legal or tax advise. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. STIS/STAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall STIS/STAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. Investors may be prohibited in certain states from purchasing some over-the-counter securities mentioned herein. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by SunTrust Banks, Inc. and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. STIS/STAS s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. SunTrust Bank and its affiliates do not accept fiduciary responsibility for all banking and investment account types offered. Please consult with your SunTrust representative to determine whether SunTrust and its affiliates have agreed to accept fiduciary responsibility for your account(s) and if you have completed the documentation necessary to establish a fiduciary relationship with SunTrust Bank or an affiliate. Additional information regarding account types and important disclosures may be found at Regular investing does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets. Dollar Cost Averaging involves continuous investments in securities regardless of fluctuating price levels. Investors should consider their financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Ibbotson US Intermediate Government Bond Index is constructed using a one-bond portfolio. The bond chosen each year is the shortest non-callable bond with a maturity between 5 and 6 years, and it is held for the calendar year. S&P 500 Index is comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. MSCI EAFE index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. MSCI EM index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The Investors Intelligence Sentiment index is a weekly survey of newsletter writers and measures whether participants are bullish on the stock market outlook. At extremes, it is often looked to as a contrarian indicator. CN EXP

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