Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation
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1 Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Dec. 31, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (Ameriprise Financial) is the investment manager for Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios and has engaged The Dreyfus Corporation as the portfolio strategist. Investment recommendations are made by the Mellon Capital Management Team acting in their capacity as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation. The portfolio strategist constructs and monitors the model portfolios. They do not have any discretionary authority or control with respect to purchasing or selling securities or making investments for investors. Neither The Dreyfus Corporation nor Mellon Capital Management is affiliated with Ameriprise Financial. See fact sheet for additional details about the portfolio. Executive Summary Both the Domestic All Asset and Global All Asset portfolios ( the Portfolios ) generated a positive total return (net of fees) during the fourth quarter. The Domestic All Asset portfolio outperformed its Blended Benchmark (net of fees) due to the asset allocation. The Global All Asset portfolio underperformed its Blended Benchmark on a net-offee basis, as losses from equity country selection outweighed gains from the asset allocation. The MSCI World Index rose 5.51%, led by Japanese and U.S. stocks, while Eurozone equities underperfomed the MSCI World Index. The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened during the quarter, with two-year yields rising by 40 basis points to 1.89% while the ten-year yield rose 8 basis points to 2.41%. Market Environment Global equities capped off a strong year with solid gains in the fourth quarter, driven by the positive macro outlook, benign inflation and buoyant earnings that kept risk appetite elevated. In the U.S., returns were boosted by President Trump s end-of-year taxcutting package and promised infrastructure spending. Congress approved a bill that includes a broad reduction in the domestic tax rate paid by companies to 21% from 35%, which is expected to provide an earnings boost to a broad array of companies. The S&P 500 rallied in the lead-up to the reform and finished the quarter 6.64% higher. Japanese equities led all major markets, with the MSCI Japan Index rising 8.49%, and hitting a 26-year high on the heels of supportive global growth and solid quarterly earnings. Eurozone equities made modest gains, but underperformed the MSCI World Index, with political uncertainty, a rising euro, and a smaller exposure the tech sector weighing on returns. Global economic data remains supportive. In the U.S., third quarter GDP was revised upwards to 3.3% from 3.0% in the prior release. Unemployment fell to the lowest level since 2001 and the Conference Board s Consumer Confidence Index rose to the highest level since December Japan reported its seventh consecutive quarter of growth in the third quarter, the longest streak in more than 15 years. Europe is experiencing the fastest growth rate in a decade, rising 2.5% year over year. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) showed particular strength in December. Eurozone manufacturing PMI hit a record high of 60.6 in December, while Japan saw its manufacturing PMI hit the highest level in four years at The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 55.0 in December from 53.9 in the prior month. As had been widely anticipated, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lifted interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December. The Fed also raised its growth forecasts for 2018 to 2.5% from 2.1%. The European Central Bank (ECB) extended its quantitative easing through September 2018, but the central bank will reduce its monthly purchases from EUR 60 billion to EUR 30 billion. In addition, ECB president Draghi said that rates will remain at the current level well past the end of the quantitative easing program, and will keep open the option of increasing the size and duration of quantitative easing if necessary. The Bank of England s Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%, the first increase in ten years. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged.
2 The MSCI World Index rose 5.51% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 7.44%. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Capital 20 year Municipal Bond Index rose 2.55%, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.39%. Performance Review The Domestic All Asset portfolio was higher on a total return basis (net of fees) due to the strong gain from U.S. equities, as the S&P 500 rose 6.64% during the quarter. U.S. bonds posted modest gains of 0.39% as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. U.S. equities hit a series of record highs over the quarter on the heels of robust corporate earnings, particularly from the Technology sector. Cyclical areas of the market performed well, with gains led by the consumer discretionary Sector, Technology and Financials. Relative to the Blended Benchmark the portfolio outperformed (net of fees) due to overall asset allocation. The portfolio held an overweight to equities and underweight to bonds relative to the Blended Benchmark, which added to returns as U.S. equities outperformed U.S. bonds. Equity sector allocations detracted, mainly due to the position in a Telecom sector ETF which declined during the quarter, and underperformed the S&P 500 Index. Bond sector allocations were flat. The Global All Asset portfolio rose on a total return basis (net of fees) as global equities rose 5.51% as measured by the MSCI World Index. U.S. bonds posted gains of 0.39% as measured by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. The portfolio underperformed the Blended Benchmark (net of fees) due to losses from equity country selection. Among equity country allocations, the main detractors were overweight positions in hedged German and Spanish stocks. Economic momentum helped the euro outperform, which weighed on Eurozone stocks and led to underperformance relative to global equities for hedged German and Spanish stocks. An overweight to hedged Japanese stocks offset some of the loss as they were the best performing country among those in the portfolio. The overall asset allocation was positive. The portfolio held an overweight to global equities and an underweight to U.S. bonds, which added to relative return as equities outperformed. U.S. equity sector positioning was also positive, led by gains from overweights to Financials, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. Bond sector allocations were flat. Summary of Portfolio Changes Dreyfus applies a disciplined approach that involves systematically evaluating various asset classes, countries, sectors and currencies. Ameriprise Financial s portfolio reallocations are a result of model recommendations driven by relative valuation and macro risk indicators, with consideration for transaction and holding costs. Asset Allocation: In the Portfolios, Dreyfus recommended taking profits from strong equity gains by reducing both the equity overweight and bond underweight. The rally in equities made them modestly less attractive relative to U.S. bonds. Equity Sector Allocation: In the U.S. All Asset portfolio, Dreyfus recommended a sale in Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples as both sectors rallied and became less attractive on a valuation basis. We also recommended a sale in Telecom and Real Estate as earnings expectations declined relative to other sectors. We recommended a purchase in Health Care and Utilities as earnings were unchanged while both sectors underperformed other sectors during the quarter. Strength in commodity prices drove improved earnings expectations in the Materials sector. In the Global All Asset portfolio, where positions were smaller due to our dislike of U.S. stocks relative to international markets, we recommended a purchase of Materials and Consumer Staples, and sold Real Estate. Country Allocation: In the Global All Asset portfolio, Dreyfus recommended a purchase in hedged German and Spanish stocks during the quarter. Earnings in both countries remain robust while underperformance relative to other markets in the portfolio made them relatively more attractive. Long positions in hedged Japanese and U.K. stocks were trimmed, as both markets outperformed. The position in Hong Kong stocks was closed due to outperformance and modestly lower earnings expectations. We recommended a sale in Canadian and Italian stocks due to lower earnings expectations relative to other markets Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
3 Bond Sector Allocation: In the Domestic All Asset portfolio, the 20+ year Treasury position (TLT) was closed. We recommended increased exposure to the fixed income positions in order to lower the duration of the bond exposure Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
4 Active Opportunity ETF Dreyfus Portfolios Composite Performance (as of Dec. 31, 2017) The portfolio inception date 9/1/10. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and processes used may not achieve the desired results Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
5 Disclosures Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (Ameriprise Financial) is the investment manager for Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios and has engaged The Dreyfus Corporation as the portfolio strategist. Investment recommendations are made by the Mellon Capital Management Team acting in their capacity as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation. Certain employees of Mellon Capital Management Corporation ( Mellon Capital ), acting in their capacity as dual employees of The Dreyfus Corporation ( Dreyfus ), provide model portfolio recommendations to Ameriprise in connection with the Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios. Dreyfus comments are provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment advice or predictive of any future market performance. Views are current as of the date of this communication and subject to change rapidly as economic and market conditions dictate. BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading asset management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, encompassing BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Mellon Capital and Dreyfus are BNY Mellon Investment Management firms. Neither The Dreyfus Corporation nor Mellon Capital Management is affiliated with Ameriprise Financial nor does either have discretionary authority or control with respect to purchasing or selling securities or making other investments for individuals with Ameriprise Active Portfolio accounts. Dreyfus and Mellon Capital are affiliates, and each is a subsidiary of BNY Mellon. Dreyfus comments are provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment advice or predictive of any future market performance. Dreyfus' views are current as of the date of this communication and are subject to change rapidly as economic and market conditions dictate. This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, accounting, tax, investment, or other professional advice. Performance Individual account performance may vary and the actual return of a client s account will be reduced by the wrap fee and other expenses that will be incurred by that client. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance information shown. Depending on the portfolio, the composite performance may be calculated by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. or the Investment Manager. Annualized performance is calculated on a trailing basis. In nearly all cases, the composites are created on an asset and time-weighted basis using month-end market values and returns. Active Opportunity ETF Dreyfus Domestic All Asset Composite performance as presented is comprised of 1) a single account invested in the portfolio model since the inception of the portfolio from 9/1/10 to 12/31/11 and 2) all eligible fully discretionary accounts from 1/1/12 to present. All eligible accounts are added to the composite after one full calendar month of performance. Unless otherwise stated, the composite performance presented is shown both gross and net of Max Wrap Fee and other distributions and applicable expenses of the underlying mutual funds. The composite performance includes the reinvestment of dividends where permitted. Performance reflects Max Wrap Fee of 2.5% prior to 4/1/17 and 2.0% thereafter. Returns are annualized for periods of one year or greater. Individual account performance may vary. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Active Opportunity ETF Dreyfus Global All Asset Composite performance as presented is comprised of 1) a single account invested in the portfolio model since the inception of the portfolio from 9/1/10 to 12/31/11 and 2) all eligible fully discretionary accounts from 1/1/12 to present. All eligible accounts are added to the composite after one full calendar month of performance. Unless otherwise stated, the composite performance presented is shown both gross and net of Max Wrap Fee and other distributions and applicable expenses of the underlying mutual funds. The composite performance includes the reinvestment of dividends where permitted. Performance reflects Max Wrap Fee of 2.5% prior to 4/1/17 and 2.0% thereafter. Returns are annualized for periods of one year or greater. Individual account performance may vary. Past performance is not an indication of future results Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
6 Blended Benchmarks The Blended Benchmark returns presented reflect a weighted combination of multiple indices. For the Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios, the Blended Benchmark used is selected by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., and corresponds to the asset allocation mix of the portfolios as reflected. The index performance is not illustrative of a specific investment. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. The Major Market Indices are presented as total return with dividends reinvested. These indices may not be similar to your portfolio. Indexes Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a market value-weighted index of investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage securities, with maturities of one year or more. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index measures USD denominated, fixed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury. Treasury bills are excluded by the maturity constraint, but are part of a separate Short Treasury Index. Bloomberg Barclays Capital 20 year Municipal Bond Index is an index of fixed rate investment-grade municipal bonds dated 12/31/90 or later, maturing between 17 and 22 years, and greater than $75 million in issuance size. MSCI All Country World Index (net of taxes) (MSCI ACW-I net) is a net of taxes, free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI consists of 47 country indices comprising 23 developed and 24 emerging market country indices as of December MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 846 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. as of December The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. With 321 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 1,653constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. S&P 500 Index is an index of common stocks frequently used as a measure of market performance. Portfolio Risks The portfolios are subject to risks associated with the underlying funds including, but not limited to: market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, foreign/emerging markets risk, sector risk and risks associated with alternative investments. See the fund prospectus for a definition of these and other specific risks associated with the underlying funds Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
7 International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to potential political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets. ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk and will fluctuate in market value. Non-investment-grade (high yield or junk) securities present greater price volatility and more risk to principal and income than higher-rated securities. There are risks associated with fixed income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities. Investment in or exposure to foreign currencies subjects the fund to currency fluctuation and risk of loss. The U.S. government may be unable or unwilling to honor its financial obligations. Securities issued or guaranteed by federal agencies and U.S. government-sponsored instrumentalities may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Asset allocation or diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss. Please review the Ameriprise Managed Accounts Client Disclosure Brochure or, if you have elected to pay a consolidated advisory fee, the Ameriprise Managed Accounts and Financial Planning Service Disclosure Brochure, for a full description of services offered, including fees and expenses. Investment products are not federally or FDIC insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by, any financial institution, and involves investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. Investment advisory products and services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment adviser Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
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