Investment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee
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1 Investment Perspectives From The Global Investment Committee
2 Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent Extreme Fear Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley & Co., Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC
3 Why Are Investors So Concerned? Fed transition to interest rate hikes next year timing and speed Europe s failure to deliver on monetary and fiscal policies Collapsing oil prices and what it means for shale and global growth Ebola Geopolitics Ukraine/Russia, ISIS in Iraq, Middle East generally Inflation expectations collapsing along with bond yields Can the world handle a stronger dollar? Positive catalysts: Tax cut from lower energy prices, European bank re-caps, ECB asset purchases, solid earnings, share buybacks, lower interest rates, strong seasonal patterns Nov/Dec + mid-term elections; third year of presidential cycle Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC
4 Our Thesis Tapering of QE Is Not the End of the Cycle Tapering is tightening despite the Fed s rhetoric it is not The initial tightening of monetary policy typically does not kill the economy or the stock market; instead, it signals self-sustainability However, market leadership changes as investors question the economy s ability to withstand the tighter policy We think 1994 and 2004 provide good examples of what to expect Many things support our thesis the yield curve is flattening, market leadership changing to late-cycle sectors, valuations have decreased, and M&A picking up all of which occurred in 1994 and 2004
5 Similarity to 1994 and 2004 Episodes Is Noteworthy Indexed Performance of S&P 500 from First Rate Hike/Initial Tapering of Quantitative Easing As of October 16, 2014 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC
6 Earnings Are Still Very Supportive of Stocks S&P 500 Index Level Vs. S&P 500 Operating Earnings As of October 17, ,050 S&P 500 Index Level (left axis) S&P 500 Operating Earnings (right axis) 30 1,850 1,650 Stocks Overvalued 25 S&P 500 Index Level 1,450 1,250 1, Stocks Undervalued S&P 500 Earnings Source: Bloomberg
7 US Mid-Term Election Has Been Bullish for US Equities Dow Jones Industrial Average Around Mid-term Elections As of October 17, 2014 Source: Ned Davis Research. Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at For data vendor disclaimers refer to
8 Moment of Truth: Will Earnings in Europe Accelerate? Eurostoxx Operating EPS Vs. Eurostoxx Index Level As of October 17, ,750 Eurostoxx Operating Earnings Per Share ,250 3,750 3,250 2,750 2,250 Eurostoxx Price ,750 Eurostoxx Operating Earnings (left axis) Eurostoxx Price (right axis) Source: Bloomberg
9 Trend Line Earnings Growth Similar in Europe and US Earnings Per Share As of May 1, 2014 Why the recent gap? Source: BCA Research
10 Credit Growth the Key Difference Between US and Europe Corporate & Household Credit Growth¹ As of 2Q % 9% 6% 5.1% 3% 0% -3% Positive Growth Negative Growth -1.8% -6% United States Europe Source: Haver Analytics. (1) Corporate credit growth excludes Financials. Data includes mortgages.
11 Japan Still Not Getting Much Respect Topix Operating EPS Vs. Topix Index Level As of October 17, ,800 Topix Operating Earnings Per Share ,600 1,400 1,200 1, Topix Price Topix Operating Earnings Per Share (left axis) Topix Price (Japan Stock Market, right axis) Source: Bloomberg
12 Big Drawdowns Are Infrequent Typically Coincide With Recessions S&P 500 Bear Market Downturns¹ and Recoveries Performance as of October 31, 2014 (Dark Grey Bars Indicate Periods of Recession) Downturn from Peak S&P 500 Peak to Trough Decline (%) Duration (Months) Subsequent Return (%) Price/Earnings Ratio Price/Book Ratio 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Peak Trough Peak Trough Recover to Peak S&P 500 Date of Recovery Sep Jun Jun Sep Jul Mar Mar Oct Mar Apr Aug Jan May Jun Jun Jun Dec Jun Jul Sep Nov May May Mar Duration (Months) Great Depression Cuban Missile Crisis Jan Oct Oct Jul Nov Aug Aug Nov Aug Dec Dec Jul Mar Oct Oct May Crash Oct Mar Mar Apr Average: Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. (1) Downturns defined as declines of 25% or greater
13 What Are We Concerned About? Is the ECB behind the curve and can they catch up before deflationary forces take root? Will the European bank stress tests be cathartic enough and lead to proper recapitalizations? Will Germany acquiesce? Is Japan experiencing bad inflation? Disenfranchised middle class around the world Can China transition to a consumer economy fast enough? Ebola is a wildcard Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC
14 Bottom Line: Our Recommendations We continue to recommend equities over fixed income. Active managers should outperform passive at this stage given lower correlations. In the US, we prefer Healthcare, Tech and Consumer Discretionary. We believe US equities will advance in the fourth quarter on the back of strong seasonals. Japan is at the early stages of new bull market skepticism is high, valuations are low. Europe likely to remain choppy given concern about growth, the bank stress tests due in late October and Germany taking hard line on fiscal austerity add on weakness. Emerging markets are very idiosyncratic and have performed better than expected this year. We prefer India, Mexico, China and many parts of Southeast Asia. For fixed income, we still recommend below-benchmark duration. Don t get complacent. Recent pullback in high yield creates opportunity. Municipal bonds look fairly valued. We still like Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) as an attractive way to invest in US Energy infrastructure. Growing yield from these securities appears compelling in a low interest rate world. Be very selective at this stage. Commercial real estate in the US appears more interesting at this point as it typically lags residential recovery. Similarly, international real estate appears more favorable than U.S. Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. For more information about the risks to Duration and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), please refer to the Risk Considerations section at the end of this material.
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