Investment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Investment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee"

Transcription

1 Investment Perspectives From The Global Investment Committee

2 Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent Extreme Fear Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley & Co., Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC

3 Why Are Investors So Concerned? Fed transition to interest rate hikes next year timing and speed Europe s failure to deliver on monetary and fiscal policies Collapsing oil prices and what it means for shale and global growth Ebola Geopolitics Ukraine/Russia, ISIS in Iraq, Middle East generally Inflation expectations collapsing along with bond yields Can the world handle a stronger dollar? Positive catalysts: Tax cut from lower energy prices, European bank re-caps, ECB asset purchases, solid earnings, share buybacks, lower interest rates, strong seasonal patterns Nov/Dec + mid-term elections; third year of presidential cycle Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC

4 Our Thesis Tapering of QE Is Not the End of the Cycle Tapering is tightening despite the Fed s rhetoric it is not The initial tightening of monetary policy typically does not kill the economy or the stock market; instead, it signals self-sustainability However, market leadership changes as investors question the economy s ability to withstand the tighter policy We think 1994 and 2004 provide good examples of what to expect Many things support our thesis the yield curve is flattening, market leadership changing to late-cycle sectors, valuations have decreased, and M&A picking up all of which occurred in 1994 and 2004

5 Similarity to 1994 and 2004 Episodes Is Noteworthy Indexed Performance of S&P 500 from First Rate Hike/Initial Tapering of Quantitative Easing As of October 16, 2014 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC

6 Earnings Are Still Very Supportive of Stocks S&P 500 Index Level Vs. S&P 500 Operating Earnings As of October 17, ,050 S&P 500 Index Level (left axis) S&P 500 Operating Earnings (right axis) 30 1,850 1,650 Stocks Overvalued 25 S&P 500 Index Level 1,450 1,250 1, Stocks Undervalued S&P 500 Earnings Source: Bloomberg

7 US Mid-Term Election Has Been Bullish for US Equities Dow Jones Industrial Average Around Mid-term Elections As of October 17, 2014 Source: Ned Davis Research. Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at For data vendor disclaimers refer to

8 Moment of Truth: Will Earnings in Europe Accelerate? Eurostoxx Operating EPS Vs. Eurostoxx Index Level As of October 17, ,750 Eurostoxx Operating Earnings Per Share ,250 3,750 3,250 2,750 2,250 Eurostoxx Price ,750 Eurostoxx Operating Earnings (left axis) Eurostoxx Price (right axis) Source: Bloomberg

9 Trend Line Earnings Growth Similar in Europe and US Earnings Per Share As of May 1, 2014 Why the recent gap? Source: BCA Research

10 Credit Growth the Key Difference Between US and Europe Corporate & Household Credit Growth¹ As of 2Q % 9% 6% 5.1% 3% 0% -3% Positive Growth Negative Growth -1.8% -6% United States Europe Source: Haver Analytics. (1) Corporate credit growth excludes Financials. Data includes mortgages.

11 Japan Still Not Getting Much Respect Topix Operating EPS Vs. Topix Index Level As of October 17, ,800 Topix Operating Earnings Per Share ,600 1,400 1,200 1, Topix Price Topix Operating Earnings Per Share (left axis) Topix Price (Japan Stock Market, right axis) Source: Bloomberg

12 Big Drawdowns Are Infrequent Typically Coincide With Recessions S&P 500 Bear Market Downturns¹ and Recoveries Performance as of October 31, 2014 (Dark Grey Bars Indicate Periods of Recession) Downturn from Peak S&P 500 Peak to Trough Decline (%) Duration (Months) Subsequent Return (%) Price/Earnings Ratio Price/Book Ratio 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Peak Trough Peak Trough Recover to Peak S&P 500 Date of Recovery Sep Jun Jun Sep Jul Mar Mar Oct Mar Apr Aug Jan May Jun Jun Jun Dec Jun Jul Sep Nov May May Mar Duration (Months) Great Depression Cuban Missile Crisis Jan Oct Oct Jul Nov Aug Aug Nov Aug Dec Dec Jul Mar Oct Oct May Crash Oct Mar Mar Apr Average: Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. (1) Downturns defined as declines of 25% or greater

13 What Are We Concerned About? Is the ECB behind the curve and can they catch up before deflationary forces take root? Will the European bank stress tests be cathartic enough and lead to proper recapitalizations? Will Germany acquiesce? Is Japan experiencing bad inflation? Disenfranchised middle class around the world Can China transition to a consumer economy fast enough? Ebola is a wildcard Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC

14 Bottom Line: Our Recommendations We continue to recommend equities over fixed income. Active managers should outperform passive at this stage given lower correlations. In the US, we prefer Healthcare, Tech and Consumer Discretionary. We believe US equities will advance in the fourth quarter on the back of strong seasonals. Japan is at the early stages of new bull market skepticism is high, valuations are low. Europe likely to remain choppy given concern about growth, the bank stress tests due in late October and Germany taking hard line on fiscal austerity add on weakness. Emerging markets are very idiosyncratic and have performed better than expected this year. We prefer India, Mexico, China and many parts of Southeast Asia. For fixed income, we still recommend below-benchmark duration. Don t get complacent. Recent pullback in high yield creates opportunity. Municipal bonds look fairly valued. We still like Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) as an attractive way to invest in US Energy infrastructure. Growing yield from these securities appears compelling in a low interest rate world. Be very selective at this stage. Commercial real estate in the US appears more interesting at this point as it typically lags residential recovery. Similarly, international real estate appears more favorable than U.S. Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. For more information about the risks to Duration and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), please refer to the Risk Considerations section at the end of this material.

Monthly Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee October 2014

Monthly Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee October 2014 Monthly Perspectives From the Global Investment Committee October 2014 Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent

More information

Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee March 2015

Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee March 2015 Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee March 2015 Our 2015 Thesis: The Great Rebalancing Act Tapering was tightening last year despite the rhetoric it was not. Dollar strength

More information

Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist

More information

Economic and Market Outlook

Economic and Market Outlook Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions

More information

Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee July 2015

Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee July 2015 Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee July 2015 The Great Rebalancing Faces Bumps Not Roadblocks As of July 15, 2015 Our primary investment thesis for 2015 remains intact. To

More information

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015 2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5

More information

Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee September 2015

Monthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee September 2015 Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee September 2015 The Great Rebalancing Faces Bumps Not Roadblocks As of September 9, 2015 Our primary investment thesis for 2015 remains intact.

More information

Investing Insights. Managing Downturns

Investing Insights. Managing Downturns December 31, 2017 Managing Downturns 2 Number of Months 1902 1907 1910 1913 1918 1920 1923 1926 1929 1937 1945 1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2007 2017 Expansion vs. Recession in the

More information

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below

More information

2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018

2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018 Retirement Income Solutions Helping to grow and preserve your wealth 2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018 February 2018 Summary The U.S. stock market posted a strong 2017 with returns of

More information

Global Equities. Q&A roadshow #QAroadshow2016. Gavin Marriott Product Manager

Global Equities. Q&A roadshow #QAroadshow2016. Gavin Marriott Product Manager Global Equities Q&A roadshow 216 #QAroadshow216 Gavin Marriott Product Manager June 216 For professional advisers only. This material is not suitable for retail clients Questions What will drive global

More information

> Macro Investment Outlook

> Macro Investment Outlook > Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9

More information

Foundations of Investing

Foundations of Investing www.edwardjones.com Member SIPC Foundations of Investing 1 5 HOW CAN I STAY ON TRACK? 4 HOW DO I GET THERE? 1 WHERE AM I TODAY? MY FINANCIAL NEEDS 3 CAN I GET THERE? 2 WHERE WOULD I LIKE TO BE? 2 Develop

More information

Monthly Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee July 2015

Monthly Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee July 2015 Monthly Perspectives From the Global Investment Committee July 2015 The Great Rebalancing Faces Bumps Not Roadblocks As of July 15, 2015 Our primary investment thesis for 2015 remains intact. To review,

More information

The Economic & Financial Outlook

The Economic & Financial Outlook The Economic & Financial Outlook James Marple Director & Senior Economist TD Economics May 3, 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment 4.0 World GDP, Year/Year % Change 3.9 3.8 3.7

More information

The Compelling Case for Value

The Compelling Case for Value The Compelling Case for Value July 2, 2018 SOLELY FOR THE USE OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND PROFESSIONAL ADVISORS 0 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97

More information

Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York

Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction

More information

WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL?

WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL? LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 14 2016 WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS

More information

MTA Educational Web Series

MTA Educational Web Series MTA Educational Web Series One Practitioner s Guide to Combining Macro, Fundamentals and Technical Analysis Presented by: Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Chief Market Strategist SunTrust Bank July 2014 Outline:

More information

The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over

The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over April 22-24, 2015 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. Disclosures This

More information

Liquidity is Relevant Again

Liquidity is Relevant Again Liquidity is Relevant Again April 2019 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. For institutional use only. l 2019 FMR LLC.

More information

Economic and Market Outlook

Economic and Market Outlook Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions

More information

MAY 2018 Capital Markets Update

MAY 2018 Capital Markets Update MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were

More information

Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014

Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014 Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014 Clayton T. Bill, CFA Stephen J. Nilles, CFP Agenda Topic Page 2013 Review 3 Corporate Earnings and Profit Margins 5 Equity Market Valuations 7 Bonds and Expected

More information

Q MARKET PERSPECTIVES. Matthew F. Beaudry, CPA, CIMA, CMFC, CRPC, AAMS Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets

Q MARKET PERSPECTIVES. Matthew F. Beaudry, CPA, CIMA, CMFC, CRPC, AAMS Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Q1 2018 MARKET PERSPECTIVES Matthew F. Beaudry, CPA, CIMA, CMFC, CRPC, AAMS Senior Investment Director, Capital Markets Table of contents Accelerating global growth: Odds of a U.S. and global economic

More information

Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks

Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215

More information

Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss

Learning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018

More information

Fixed Income Update: June 2017

Fixed Income Update: June 2017 Fixed Income Update: June 2017 James Kochan Chief Fixed-Income Strategist Overview Political turmoil may obscure but does not usually overwhelm the economic fundamentals that drive the bond markets.. Those

More information

Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017

Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017 Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017 Key Observations After diverging in 2016, fundamentals once again drove performance in 1Q17 There is a resurgence in earnings

More information

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

More information

Year in review Summary

Year in review Summary Summary Canadian equities declined in 2018 and underperformed their global peers in Canadian dollar terms. U.S. equities also corrected as the risk of slowing pace of economic expansion, higher interest

More information

Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield

Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield Jeffrey Sherman, CFA Portfolio Manager DoubleLine Capital February 20, 2014 When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen. - Bob Farrell

More information

Fourth Quarter Update: What s Next for Portfolio Allocations

Fourth Quarter Update: What s Next for Portfolio Allocations Fourth Quarter Update: What s Next for Portfolio Allocations Please see important disclosures, chart explanations, Agenda Q3 Performance Review Review of move to benchmark weight in asset categories Trade,

More information

Total Returns Annualized (%) as of March 31, 2019

Total Returns Annualized (%) as of March 31, 2019 First Quarter 2019 Commentary Carol M. Lippman, CFA How Did We Do? After declining 13.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 roared back 13.7% in the first quarter of 2019, the benchmark s best

More information

WELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER

WELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY IBG FINANCIAL ADVISORS October 3 2016 WELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist,

More information

WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?

WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS

More information

Client Conversations GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE. Why does the Fed intend to raise interest rates, and what will it mean for my investments?

Client Conversations GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE. Why does the Fed intend to raise interest rates, and what will it mean for my investments? Client Conversations Why does the Fed intend to raise interest rates, and what will it mean for my investments? Fed Will Likely Begin Raising Rates Soon As of November 10, 2015 We believe that the Fed

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT. Seven Charts to Watch in 2017

LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT. Seven Charts to Watch in 2017 JANUARY 17 LAMENSDORF MARKET TIMING REPORT EDITOR: DICK STERN CIO: BRAD LAMENSDORF +% 75% % 25% 0% -25% -% The charts and graphs presented in LMTR s newsletter are not produced by LMTR. The interpretation

More information

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia

More information

CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Market Perspective

CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Market Perspective Market Perspective Bull Market Intact as Healthy Reset Continues May 9, 2018 Investment and Insurance Products: Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured Are not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value

More information

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA

Fourth Quarter Market Outlook. Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Fourth Quarter 2017 Market Outlook Kim Huebner, CFA Don Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth Increasing, Spending Modest, Low Unemployment 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 GDP* Q3:

More information

OUT OF THE WOODS? COMMENTARY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February

OUT OF THE WOODS? COMMENTARY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY February 20 2018 OUT OF THE WOODS? John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks

More information

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY January 25 2016 FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial; Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial; Barry

More information

Global Themes and Risks

Global Themes and Risks The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research Global Themes and Risks April 2013 Abby Joseph Cohen, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-902-4095 abby.cohen@gs.com Rachel Siu Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-357-0493

More information

Second Annual Investment Symposium

Second Annual Investment Symposium Second Annual Investment Symposium Presenting our outlook for the economy and markets. The Chattanoogan Hotel Tuesday, February 8, 2011 All market data provided by Bloomberg unless otherwise indicated.

More information

Quarterly Investment Management Conference Call July 15, 2009

Quarterly Investment Management Conference Call July 15, 2009 Quarterly Investment Management Conference Call July 15, 2009 Peter J. Langas Director of Investment Strategies Marc D. Stern Chief Investment Officer Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

More information

Equity Rating and Report

Equity Rating and Report NDRG GUIDE TO Equity Rating and Report Ned Davis Research Group Generate Alpha. Identify risk. Choose Ned Davis Research. TABLE OF CONTENTS NDRG Equity Focus Ranks...1 Universe...1 Rating a Stock Based

More information

Commercial Real Estate Outlook June Must Own Property Names to Buy During Interest Rate Fears

Commercial Real Estate Outlook June Must Own Property Names to Buy During Interest Rate Fears Jonathan Litt Founder & CEO Must Own Property Names to Buy During Interest Rate Fears REITs have sold off 9.5% since their peak in mid-may on fears of rising interest rates. Historically, sell-offs related

More information

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CET) In New York Thursday, March 26, 2009 at 5:00 A.M.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CET) In New York Thursday, March 26, 2009 at 5:00 A.M. FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. CET, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2009 The Conference Board Euro Area Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX TM (LEI) FOR THE EURO AREA AND RELATED COMPOSITE

More information

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Private Client Strategist September 26, 2014

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Private Client Strategist September 26, 2014 Weekly Trends Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Private Client Strategist September 26, 214 Buying Opportunity? In recent publications we have underscored the potential for volatility to rise through the September/October

More information

What is Monetary Policy?

What is Monetary Policy? What is Monetary Policy? Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the

More information

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Chart Collection for Morning Briefing March 22, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Figure 1.

More information

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Max Darnell, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. performance is no

More information

January 25, 2017 Financial Markets & Debt Portfolio Update Contra Costa Transportation Authority Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM),

January 25, 2017 Financial Markets & Debt Portfolio Update Contra Costa Transportation Authority Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM), January 25, 2017 Introduction Public Financial Management Inc. (PFM), financial advisor to the (CCTA) has prepared the following report as an update of market conditions through December 30, 2016. The

More information

2014 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Mid-Year Chart Pack Update June 12, 2014

2014 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Mid-Year Chart Pack Update June 12, 2014 Baird Market & Investment Strategy 14 Economic & Stock Market Outlook Mid-Year Chart Pack Update June, 14 Please refer to Appendix Important Disclosures. The following charts and comments are meant to

More information

Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment

Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL

More information

2019 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing U.S. EQUITIES. John D. Linehan, CFA CIO, Equity, Portfolio Manager November 13, 2018

2019 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing U.S. EQUITIES. John D. Linehan, CFA CIO, Equity, Portfolio Manager November 13, 2018 2019 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing U.S. EQUITIES John D. Linehan, CFA CIO, Equity, Portfolio Manager November 13, 2018 U.S. Equity Outlook: Summary ENVIRONMENT Market ascended to all-time highs

More information

2007 Outlook & Opportunities Terry Sandven & Christian Heitzman Portfolio Strategy Group January 2007

2007 Outlook & Opportunities Terry Sandven & Christian Heitzman Portfolio Strategy Group January 2007 2007 Outlook & Opportunities Terry Sandven & Christian Heitzman Portfolio Strategy Group January 2007 Since 1895. Member SIPC and NYSE. 1 Overview Review of 2006 Outlook for 2007 Interest Rates (Fed decisions)

More information

Outlook for 2011: A Pre-election Year November 2010

Outlook for 2011: A Pre-election Year November 2010 S C H A F E R C U L L E N C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T Outlook for 2011: A Pre-election Year November 2010 James P. Cullen President Despite the gradual economic recovery, investors have found it

More information

Convertibles. To convexity... and beyond! November Key investment themes in 2014 could prove beneficial for convertible bonds.

Convertibles. To convexity... and beyond! November Key investment themes in 2014 could prove beneficial for convertible bonds. Insights Convertibles To convexity... and beyond! November 2013 Convertible bonds can provide investors with the upside potential of equities with added benefits of lower price volatility and protection

More information

UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION

UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 548-1386 E-mail: wealth@emergingwealth.com Legend

More information

Risk Management for All Markets

Risk Management for All Markets Risk Management for All Markets By Steve Blumenthal, CIO/CEO of CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. Investors need to invest differently in bull markets than they do in bear markets. Ned Davis Summary An

More information

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc. OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset

More information

Q1 Investment Update. April 27, Russ Allen, Berman Capital CIO

Q1 Investment Update. April 27, Russ Allen, Berman Capital CIO Q1 Investment Update April 27, 2017 Russ Allen, Berman Capital CIO Disclosures Important Disclosures: This information is for discussion purposes only and is being furnished on April 27, 2017. This information

More information

2018 Asset Class Outlooks

2018 Asset Class Outlooks 218 Asset Class Outlooks JANUARY 218 We consider 217 to have been a strong year for risk assets, driven by buoyed market optimism following the presidential election, with promises of tax reform and a

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory

More information

Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds

Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds CPPC Conference August 2013 Cathe Tocher CFA, Senior Vice President AGENDA Introduction: Short-term noise pay attention Preparing for the future:

More information

Economic Groundhog Day

Economic Groundhog Day Economic Groundhog Day Early Signs of Spring or Six More Months/Years of Economic Winter? May 2009 Columbia Management Group, LLC ( Columbia Management ) is the investment management division of Bank of

More information

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR THE EURO AREA AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR JUNE

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR THE EURO AREA AND RELATED COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR JUNE FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. (BRUSSELS TIME), MONDAY, JULY 26, 2010 The Conference Board Euro Area Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (LEI) FOR THE EURO AREA AND RELATED

More information

Commentary. You can t overlook volatility, but you don t let it push you around in the market - Boone Pickens

Commentary. You can t overlook volatility, but you don t let it push you around in the market - Boone Pickens LongRun Monthly Strategy Review Nov 2018 AR +0.2% AG -0.9% TMG +2.4% SP500 +1.9% GDP +0.8% Commentary By way of a recap, US equity markets spent most of October going down before a scramble to recover

More information

Mexico s Fixed Income Markets

Mexico s Fixed Income Markets March 2016 Mexico s Fixed Income Markets CONTRIBUTOR Dennis Badlyans Associate Director Global Research & Design dennis.badlyans@spdji.com On Feb. 17, 2016, Mexican authorities launched a coordinated effort

More information

A COMPLETE STUDY OF THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATE CYCLES AND MLP RETURNS

A COMPLETE STUDY OF THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATE CYCLES AND MLP RETURNS A COMPLETE STUDY OF THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATE CYCLES AND MLP RETURNS 405 Park Avenue, 9 th Floor New York, NY 10022 Phone. 212-755-1970 Fax. 212-317-8125 Toll Free. 877-317-8128

More information

PIMCO: The New Neutral

PIMCO: The New Neutral PIMCO: The New Neutral Philanthropy Summit 2015 Investing in the New Neutral world April 2015 PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508 AFS Licence 246862 Level 19, 363 George St. Sydney, NSW 2000 telephone:

More information

As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017

As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017 2017 Review and 2018 Outlook As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017 2017 was a remarkable year in many ways. Despite a myriad of reasons to worry about potential pitfalls,

More information

Monthly Economic Insight

Monthly Economic Insight Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.

More information

Monthly Mutual Fund Report

Monthly Mutual Fund Report July, Monthly Mutual Fund Report Statistics for May-June Sales and Redemptions Total assets for all funds increased in May by $9. billion, or., to $.7 trillion. Money market funds had a net cash outflow

More information

Interest Rate Forecast

Interest Rate Forecast Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

Quarterly Sector Update

Quarterly Sector Update FOURTH QUARTER 2016 Quarterly Sector Update PRIMARY CONTRIBUTORS Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) Fidelity Management & Research Company, Equity Division Fidelity SelectCo SECTOR UPDATE What Is Fidelity

More information

Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over

Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over December 6, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central

More information

Themes in bond investing June 2009

Themes in bond investing June 2009 For professional investors only Not for public distribution March 2011 Themes in bond investing June 2009 Japan outlook: Will Japanese equities jump in the Year of the Rabbit? Introduction There is no

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;

More information

March 07, Dear Friends and Investors,

March 07, Dear Friends and Investors, March 07, 2018 Dear Friends and Investors, The following market overview for the month of February, 2018 has been produced by the Fund s Senior Portfolio Manager, Steven Goldman. We trust that you ll find

More information

Q Economic Outlook

Q Economic Outlook Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.

More information

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic

More information

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri

Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri 63105 314.727.7211 Quarterly Review Global Equity Market Update GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS 2002 2003 2004 2005

More information

Finding the sweet spot between risk and return. Sandy McIntyre President and Chief Executive Officer

Finding the sweet spot between risk and return. Sandy McIntyre President and Chief Executive Officer Finding the sweet spot between risk and return Sandy McIntyre President and Chief Executive Officer Updated on May 4, 2012 Disclaimer Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION

ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY OUR MISSION Smith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment adviser* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

Job creation continues, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5% Earnings are expected to grow about 5% to 8% for 2016

Job creation continues, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5% Earnings are expected to grow about 5% to 8% for 2016 2016 Market Outlook Many analysts and investors have low expectations for 2016 Bullish Case U.S. economy continues in expansion mode. Job creation continues, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5%

More information

The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 2009

The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 2009 Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 9

More information

RBC Global Asset Management Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management

RBC Global Asset Management Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management RBC Global Asset Management Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management November 212 % Global Investment Outlook PMIs swing upward 65 Global Purchasing Manager's Indices

More information

Perspectives JAN Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities

Perspectives JAN Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities Perspectives JAN 2018 2018 Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities SUSTAINED STRENGTH OR ONE HIT WONDER? Non-U.S. equity investors patience was finally rewarded with a banner year in 2017, as both strong economic

More information

P R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY. Milan IFTA Conference "Sailing to the Future" October 2017

P R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY. Milan IFTA Conference Sailing to the Future October 2017 P R O F E S S I O N A L S O N LY Milan IFTA Conference "Sailing to the Future" October 2017 Frédéric Leroux Global Fund Manager Head of Cross Asset Team 2 The Importance of Being a Risk Manager 3 Over

More information

This time isn t different

This time isn t different UNCERTAINTY = OPPORTUNITY This time isn t different Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer Richard Bernstein Advisors Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC (RBA) is an independent investment

More information

The dynamic nature of risk analysis: a multi asset perspective

The dynamic nature of risk analysis: a multi asset perspective The dynamic nature of risk analysis: a multi asset perspective Whitepaper Multi asset portfolios with return and volatility targets have a dual focus: return and risk. This means that there are two important

More information

The next release is scheduled for Monday, July 13, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CET) In the U.S. July 13, 2009 at 4:00 A.M. (ET)

The next release is scheduled for Monday, July 13, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CET) In the U.S. July 13, 2009 at 4:00 A.M. (ET) FOR RELEASE: 10:00 A.M. CET, WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17, 2009 The Conference Board Spain Business Cycle Indicators SM THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX TM (LEI) FOR SPAIN AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES

More information

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by

World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI

More information