the drive you demand ASSET ALLOCATION June 2017 Global Investment Committee
|
|
- Brittany Warner
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 the drive you demand ASSET ALLOCATION June 217 Global Investment Committee
2
3 GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION Rising earnings argue for remaining overweight equities Global economy / Asset allocation Sustained world growth is in place, and the developed country outlook has improved. The Eurozone offers a stronger growth outlook and lower political risks than the US, while the policy mix remains growth supportive. US growth should recover in Q2, stabilising in a 2%-2.5% range in the second half of the year. We expect the Fed to continue raising the Federal Funds rate. Portfolios remain overweight risk. Risk remains focused on non-us equity and alternatives allocations. Value remains scarce in fixed income. Fixed income We expect a return of interest rate volatility and a potential unwind of the recent risk-off trade ahead of the June Fed and ECB meetings. In anticipation, we have shifted towards non-directional bond strategies that can tactically capitalise upon such a shift in volatility. We have also shifted investment grade exposure towards alternative strategies. In Asia-biased strategy, we have shifted exposure from EM Debt to Asia IG strategies. Equities Despite elevated valuations, equities are supported by rising corporate profits. We continue to favour Japan and emerging markets which trade at an attractive discount to other regions. Following the maturity of our capital protected exposure in Europe, we seek a tactical opportunity to add to positions in Europe. Alternatives Alternatives present an attractive risk-adjusted return profile compared to expensive bonds. 217 GDP growth expected close to 2% DM 217 GDP consensus economic forecast % Earnings estimates continue to be revised up MSCI AC World: earnings revision ratio % Source(s): Bloomberg Finance L.P. -4 Number of analysts' EPS upgrades versus number of downgrades for the next 12 months Positioning has shifted in the 1-year US Treasury 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Net positioning (lhs) Net long Source(s): Thomson Reuters -3% Net short -4% 1-year government bond yield (rhs, inverted scale) -5% % Source(s): CFTC, UBP, ETR Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June
4 UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Upgrading growth expectations in the Eurozone Key points Sustained world growth is expected despite remaining geopolitical risks. Eurozone growth is on an accelerating path, while US growth should regain higher levels from Q2. The Fed is expected to normalise monetary policy further and the ECB should adopt a less dovish stance from June 217. Strong domestic demand expected in developed countries US growth should recover to a range of 2%-2.5% in the coming quarters, thanks to positive fundamentals for consumers and the ongoing friendly environment which remains positive for corporates. The 217 growth outlook for the Eurozone has been revised up from 1.6% to 1.8%, as momentum continues to improve post-french elections. Prospects of renewed reforms and supportive economic policy favour core and peripheral countries on the continent. In Japan, growth is on a firmer trend as industry and domestic demand has rebounded. Emerging countries benefit from firmer global activity and lower fears of protectionism. In China, tighter monetary policy and tougher regulation on banks may put a cap on growth. Central banks will progressively change monetary regimes The Fed should continue to hike rates after its June meeting. Nevertheless, money markets are reluctant to price further tightening beyond June. According to our scenario, decisions to end reinvestment coupons and decrease its balance sheet should be published in Q3-17. The ECB is expected to change its forward guidance and adopt a less aggressive stance as risks are balanced and growth is stronger. Eurozone: business sentiment points towards stronger growth Eurozone: GDP & business confidence PMI services (lhs) GDP rhs PMI manufacturing (lhs) Source(s): Markit / Eurostat Labour markets in a positive trend in developed countries Unemployment rate in major developed countries as % of active population Japan Eurozone Source(s): Eurostat, US BLS, Japan Ministry of Communications Money markets underprice further Fed rate hikes US: expected fed funds rate path 3.25 % Last months ago Longer run Source(s): Fed, Bloomberg Finance L.P. US Fed's dots (median) % Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June 217
5 UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World growth expected on a 3.5% trend World growth is expected to stay on a sustained 3.5% trend in 217 and growth in developed countries is expected to be close to 2%, driven by the US and Germany. The 217 outlook on the Eurozone has been revised up from 1.6% to 1.8%, slightly above the consensus. Germany and Spain offer a solid growth trend, while cyclical improvement is underway in 217 in France and in Italy. Growth in emerging countries should stabilise on a sustained trend. The outlook on India is positive and growth is expected to stay sustained. Growth in China should settle around 6.5%, after strong growth in H1-17. Recovery in Brazil and Russia continues, but at a slow pace. Weakening economic surprises in the US favored lower US 1y TY Surprise index - daily 1 Daily publications vs Bloomberg expectations % Economic surprise index US 1-year yield Source(s): Citigroup Global Markets, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Outlook on Eurozone has improved Eurozone GDP by country % Eurozone Germany France Spain Italy GDP y/y % Consensus 217 UBP 218 Consensus WORLD - MER on PPP basis* USA Japan Eurozone United Kingdom Switzerland Brazil Russia India China Developed countries Emerging countries Source(s): Eurostat, UBP ETR Sources: UBP - Economic & Thematic Research, Bloomberg consensus * MER: market exchange rates; PPP: purchasing power parity Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June
6 GLOBAL EQUITIES Corporate earnings upgrades continue to rise Equity markets have been resilient in May despite mixed economic data and the prospect of impeachment of the US president in light of alleged scandals involving Russian officials. Equities remain underpinned by strongly positive earnings revisions in most regions. Earnings upgrades continued to support equities 2 % % 15 1 US Our equity positions have performed well in April-May with Emerging Market (overweight) and Japan (overweight) equities outperforming US equities (underweight). The strong performance of US technology, one of our favourite sectors (together with healthcare), has led the US market to new all-time highs. Elevated valuations, especially in the US, remain a concern but they must be put in the context of rising earnings power and a price-to-book ratio which appears about fair relative to corporate profitability (see middle chart). We remain neutral on European equities but seek a better tactical opportunity to add to positions as investor positioning is currently somewhat overweight. Within Europe, we continue to be overweight eurozone banks - the most sensitive sector to a rise in bond yields and a recovering EU economy. We are overweight Japan. Our scenario on US rates should weigh on the yen, which will allow the improving fundamentals (macro and micro) to continue to be re-priced into the domestic equity market the cheapest among major DMs. We are overweight emerging markets. EM are a key beneficiary of the recovery in world trade growth and appear cheap relative to developed markets despite offering a better earnings profile Europe -25 Number of analysts' EPS upgrades versus -25 number of downgrades for the next 12 months Source(s): Thomson Reuters On a global basis, valuations are not out of line with current corporate profitability (RoE) MSCI AC World: ROE and price-to-book ratio % Price-to-book ratio (rhs) ROE Source(s): Thomson Reuters, MSCI, UBP EM continue to trade at a significant discount relative to DM Emerging vs developed markets: adjusted 12-month forward PER Sector-adjusted EM PER* DM PER Unadjusted EM PER 6 Spread between DM PER and EM 3 sector-adjusted PER, rhs *EM PER is recomposed using DM sector Source(s): Thomson Reuters, UBP Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June 217
7 GLOBAL BONDS EUR high yield spreads tightened towards post-crisis lows Despite the recent decline in yields, we have retained our a short duration and overweight risk/carry given the approach to monetary policy normalisation by major central banks looking ahead. In the government bond space, we remain underweight. The prospect of ECB tapering, a further US interest rate hike and a gradual process of Fed s balance sheet normalisation should push yields substantially higher. We believe government bond markets continue to misprice the change in the policy landscape in the coming months. With investment grade spreads nearing cyclical lows, we maintain a neutral investment grade position. As a result, we continue to tilt in favour of non-directional bond strategies which can capitalise upon the expected pickup in interest rate volatility. European credit markets have been in a decidedly happy mood following the French elections. As a result, key segments appear to be increasingly expensive. With Euro HY spreads tightened towards post-crisis lows, we see better value in USD vs. EUR high yield. As a result, we remain overweight on US High yield due to the relatively attractive yield of over 5.9% and improving corporate fundamentals. We remain overweight convertible bonds. With the equity optionality embedded in their structure, convertibles tend to be less sensitive to interest rates compared to regular bonds. Consequently, they may offer better protection in a rising rates environment. A rebound of US economic surprise should push US 1y yield higher US surprise index - daily Daily publications vs Bloomberg expectations % Economic surprise index US 1-year yield Source(s): Citigroup Global Markets, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Markets mispricing Fed hikes % % Fed's dots (median) months ago Last months ago Source(s): Fed, CBT EUR HY spreads tightened towards post crisis lows Basis points Emerging market bonds, with spreads still near historical averages, present one of the few, relatively attractive return profiles compared to the broader fixed income universe, both in USD and EUR Source(s): BofAML, UBP Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June
8 GLOBAL PORTFOLIO POSITIONING Prefer non-us equities and Alternatives Key Convictions Overweight Global Equities EQUITIES Favour Japanese equites and Emerging Markets Neutral Europe Overweight Technology and Healthcare Underweight Global Bonds BONDS Favour Non-Directional strategies Underweight duration ALTERNATIVES FOREIGN EXCHANGE Risk Premia strategies Market Neutral Event Driven EUR weakening trend since mid-214 is nearing its end Global Equities Global Bonds Underweight Neutral Overweight Underweight Neutral Overweight Equities total Bonds total USA Europe Government Corporate IG Corporate HY Japan EM debt (USD) EM Non-Directional June May Convertibles June May 8 12 Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June 217
9 RECENT PORTFOLIO CHANGES Trimming Investment Grade exposure and reducing gold We continue to expect increasing interest rate volatility going forward. The prospect of ECB tapering, a further US interest rate hike and a gradual process of the Fed s balance sheet normalisation should push yields substantially higher. Investment grade spreads are at their historic lows, approaching the levels of 23-27, before the global financial crisis. This leaves a limited prospect for further spreads compression. USD Investment grade spread nearing cyclical low USD investment-grade corporate debt spread Basis points While spreads may stay low given strong corporate fundamentals, we believe that the risk-reward profile of the asset class is becoming less attractive going forward in light of the shifting interest rate policy backdrop ahead. Since September 216, we began a shift from fixed income and interest rate sensitivity in anticipation of a normalisation of the interest rate environment ahead. We have continued this move by reducing our investment grade exposure in favour of Fixed Income Relative Value strategies in the Alternatives space. We also reduced positions in gold in the month in anticipation of a potential unwind driven by a resumption of the Fed hiking cycle, a more hawkish ECB as we move towards the summer and the decreasing risk of EU fragmentation Source(s): BofAML, UBP Flows of gold turned to negative territory Gold and weekly flows 1'5 USD/ounce Million ounces 6 1'4 5 Gold price (LHS) 4 1'3 3 1'2 2 1'1 1 1' 9-1 ETF holdings of gold Source(s): Bloomberg Finance L.P., UBP Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Asset Allocation Global Investment Committee June
10 Disclaimer This document constitutes marketing material and is not the result of a financial analysis or research and therefore not subject to legal requirements regarding the independence of investment research. It is furnished for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or recommendation to enter into any type of financial transaction or to conclude any type of mandate with Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA, or any entity of the Group (hereinafter «UBP»). This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or is located or incorporated in, any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations, or which would subject UBP and/or its subsidiaries or affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This document may not be distributed, reproduced or referred to (in whole or in part) without the express written consent of UBP. This document reflects the opinion of UBP as of the date of issue. The information, opinions and analysis contained herein have been based on sources believed to be reliable. However, UBP does not guarantee their timeliness, accuracy, or completeness. All information, analysis and opinions are subject to change without notice at any time and with no obligation to update. This document is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision and is not a personal recommendation or investment advice. It is intended only to provide observations and views, regardless of the date on which the reader may receive or access it. Each person is urged to determine whether any investments suit their particular circumstances and to independently assess, with professional advisors, the specific risks incurred, including without limitation at the financial, regulatory, legal, accounting and tax levels. Past performance and/or financial market scenarios are no guarantee of current or future returns. Where these materials contain statements about future performance, such statements are forward looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. The opinions, analysis and information herein do not take into account circumstances, objectives, or needs of any specific person. Investments may be subject to risks that are difficult to quantify and to integrate into their valuation and significant fluctuations in their value or return may occur. Products with a high degree of risk, such as derivatives, structured products, or alternative/non-traditional investments (hedge funds, private equity, real estate funds, etc.) are suitable only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. Investments in foreign securities or currencies involve additional risk as the foreign security or currency might lose value against an investor s reference currency. This document is without express or implied warranties or representations of any kind and UBP will not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from the use of, or reliance on, the information, analysis or opinions contained herein. Copyright UBP. All rights reserved. Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA Head Office Rue du Rhône P.O. Box Geneva 1, Switzerland ubp@ubp.com
the drive you demand INVESTOR INSIGHTS Eurozone August 2017 Global Investment Committee
the drive you demand INVESTOR INSIGHTS Eurozone August 7 Global Investment Committee EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The eurozone growth outlook has improved and it should benefit from sustained worldwide activity and
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK. August 2017
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK August 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 MACRO-ECONOMICS AND CURRENCIES Developed and Emerging Markets A series of comments from major central banks during the month, reminded investors
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns
For professional investors and advisers only. Seven-year asset class forecast returns 2017 Update Seven-year asset class forecast returns 2017 update Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast largely
More informationUBS HouseView. Bubble thoughts. Digest. US Edition CIO Wealth Management Research. December 2013
UBS HouseView Digest Edition CIO Wealth Management Research December 2013 Bubble thoughts Bubble thoughts Five years ago the Federal Reserve announced its first round of quantitative easing (QE). QE has
More informationTarget Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Target Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationRetirement Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationThe Market Navigator N a v i g a t i n g t h r o u g h t h e S e a s o f C h a n g e
April 17, 2018 The Market Navigator N a v i g a t i n g t h r o u g h t h e S e a s o f C h a n g e Systematic tracking of market and macro momentum through highly condensed, objective indicators in the
More informationAsset Allocation Flash
Editing & Co-ordination: Degroof Petercam Asset Management Asset Allocation Committee Contact: dpam@degroofpetercam.com www.degroofpetercam.com funds.degroofpetercam.com http://blog.degroofpetercam.com/
More informationThe ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization
Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets June 27 The ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization Summary In the Spotlight. This month, we focus on the European Central Bank s (ECB) June
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationINTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
2018 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES Justin Thomson Portfolio Manager, CIO, Equity November 14, 2017 FOR 2018 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK PRESS BRIEFING. PROVIDED TO DESIGNATED MEMBERS
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationASSET ALLOCATION FLASH
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 25 June 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION FLASH BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) MID-YEAR REVERSALS Asset allocation overview: Christophe MOULIN Head of Multi Asset,
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More information2019 Annual Outlook Volatility & Opportunities in the Late Stage Bull Market
2019 Annual Outlook Volatility & Opportunities in the Late Stage Bull Market Asia Pacific Wealth Management December 2018 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE.
More informationThe case for lower rated corporate bonds
The case for lower rated corporate bonds Marcus Pakenham Fixed income product specialist December 3 Introduction Where should fixed income investors be positioned over the medium term? We expect that government
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK JUNE 2018 MACRO-ECONOMICS. Developed and Emerging Markets
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK JUNE 2018 MACRO-ECONOMICS Developed and Emerging Markets Trade tariffs and protectionist themes have dominated global markets throughout the year and risks have further heightened through
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update
Schroders Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast builds on the same methodology which has been applied
More informationGlobal Market Outlook 2018
Global Market Outlook 2018 Belinda Boa Head of Active Investments Asia Pacific and CIO of Emerging Markets Fundamental Active Equity, BlackRock January 2018 FOR PROFESSIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
More informationAsset Allocation Model March Update
The month of February was marked by a sell-off in global equity markets and a sudden increase in market volatility with the CBOE Volatility Index reaching its highest level since August 2015. The rout
More informationMACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
MACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 18 INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC MARKETS TEAM, MULTI ASSET GROUP GLOBAL SHARES CONSTRAINED BY TRADE WAR FEARS BUT AUSTRALIAN SHARES RELATIVELY RESILIENT 5 Australia -
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Fourth Quarter 2016 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationJune 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating
June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global
More informationEconomic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months
Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth has rebounded from a dismal first quarter and GDP is growing modestly at 2.6%. Personal income growth has improved in recent months and
More informationPRIVATE BANKING PRIVATE BANKING
US (UNDERWEIGHT) Valuations remain high Downward revision to earnings forecasts persists Monetary policy realtively less supportive Recent rally relative to other markets looks March 211rebased 2 1 overstretched
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationGlobal Investment Strategy
Global Investment Strategy SEPTEMBER 218 ANDREW JENNER HEAD OF INVESTMENT Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management (UK) Ltd. (Registered in England No 1842259) A member of MUFG, a global financial group Investment
More informationGlobal Economic and Market Outlook for Gavyn Davies, Chairman, Fulcrum Asset Management
Global Economic and Market Outlook for 2018 Gavyn Davies, Chairman, Fulcrum Asset Management After many years of persistent downgrades to consensus GDP forecasts, 2017 has seen the first upgrades since
More informationGlobal Fixed Income Weekly
Global Fixed Income Weekly Executive Summary US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 103,000 in March, falling short of consensus expectations by 82,000; the undershoot is likely due to weather effects and
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationStrategy The big EUR curve flattening has started
Investment Research General Market Conditions 18 January 2018 Strategy The big EUR curve flattening has started It has been a rocky past month for both the US and the European fixed income market, as 10Y
More informationQ QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES
Q2-219 QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVES Tavistock Wealth - Investment Team Outlook Christopher Peel - John Leiper - Andrew Pottie - Sekar Indran - Alex Livingstone India Turnbull - Jonah Levy - James Peel Welcome
More informationGlobal Investment Views
July 2017 Global Investment Views PLAY GLOBAL UPTURN, BUT STAY ALERT Context Pascal BLANQUÉ Group Chief Investment Officer Vincent MORTIER Deputy Group Chief Investment Officer Global economic activity
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationFive years into the crisis. Is the world more stable or more unstable? Page 2 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference.
Five years into the crisis. Is the world more stable or more unstable? Page 2 I Dublin, June 2013 Pioneer Investment Conference. % of GDP The Debt Issue in Developed Markets Developed Markets Debt-to-GDP
More informationIncreasing uncertainty leads to profit-taking
ING Investment Office Publication date: 13 September 2018 12:30 p.m. Monthly Investment Outlook September 2018 Increasing uncertainty leads to profit-taking August September Asset allocation - + We are
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationNavigating a maturing bull market
Navigating a maturing bull market Asia Pacific Wealth Management March 2018 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Market Review Market Performance
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Financial Market Outlook: After Strong Gains
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly October 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Uncertainty about US monetary
More informationUBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions
Thursday, February 5 2015 UBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions Madrid Milan London Frankfurt Zurich Chief Investment Office WM The Diverging World CIO Year Ahead 2015 Bill O'Neill Head of Investment
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationEmerging Market Trends. From caution to optimism
Emerging Market Trends From caution to optimism For Qualified Investors in Switzerland or Professional Investors or Eligible Counterparties as defined by the relevant laws Asset Management October 2016
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly December 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA, Chief economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 SUMMARY INVESTMENT CLIMATE
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2017 Stock Markets likely to Grind Higher as Expectations of Strong Earnings Growth & Improving Global GDP
More informationKBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRESENTATION. Defensive August 2017
KBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRESENTATION August 2017 Investment climate Key rate trends and outlook 2,0 2,0 1,5 VS EMU 1,5 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0-0,5-0,5 - - 07-2012 07-2013 07-2014 07-2015 07-2016 07-2017 07-2018
More informationFear of risk or risk of fear
ANDREW COLE SENIOR INVESTMENT MANAGER, INTERNATIONAL MULTI ASSET 7 September 2017 % IT HAS BEEN A GOOD TIME TO BE PASSIVE 14 50% EQUITIES/50% BONDS IN 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: Thomson Reuters. Performance
More informationMARKET REVIEW Japan Asia Pacific ex Japan US Emerging Markets Europe
MARKET REVIEW Global stocks extended the year s rally in the final quarter of 2017. Equity investors were well rewarded the past year as global economic growth picked up more convincingly. In a first since
More informationLetko, Brosseau & Associates Inc. Global Investment Management Since 1987
Letko, Brosseau & Associates Inc. Global Investment Management Since 1987 Economic and Capital Markets Outlook About us Letko, Brosseau & Associates Inc. is an independent, global investment management
More informationMarch PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2016 Stocks likely to Recover Further with Improving Growth & Recession Fears Easing, Fresh Stimulus from
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationOptimism returns But not everywhere
ING Investment Office Publication date: 22 May 2018, 12:50 p.m. Monthly Investment Outlook May 2018 Optimism returns But not everywhere Asset allocation April May Equities Real estate Commodities Alternatives
More informationGoldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook
Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook Overview The Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios are managed by the Global Portfolio Solutions (GPS) team. 1 GPS has been designing customized
More informationEconomic Outlook. DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months
Economic Outlook DMS Economic Outlook for next 12 months GDP growth will be modest at approximately 2.5%, but the economy will experience periods of unstable growth. Consumer confidence will improve as
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationNovember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS)
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 2 May 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION MONTHLY BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) THE RETURN OF THE US INFLATION THREAT Asset allocation overview: Christophe MOULIN
More informationECB policy: how to taper without causing a tantrum?
Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets August 217 ECB policy: how to taper without causing a tantrum? Summary In the Spotlight. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already reduced monthly purchases
More informationPerspectives JAN Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities
Perspectives JAN 2018 2018 Market Preview: Non-U.S. Equities SUSTAINED STRENGTH OR ONE HIT WONDER? Non-U.S. equity investors patience was finally rewarded with a banner year in 2017, as both strong economic
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
January 15, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» The European central bank (ECB) has indicated it should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, according to the ECB s minutes of December meeting
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationQuarterly Macro Report
Quarterly Macro Report 3rd Quarter 218 Even though forward-looking indicators for the industrialized countries still point to an acceleration of growth, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated
More informationPM Outlook Platinum to outperform palladium. Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research. Insights.abnamro.nl/en.
PM Outlook 218 Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets Research 5 December 217 Georgette Boele Senior Precious Metals & Diamond Analyst Tel: +31 2 629 7789 georgette.boele@nl.abnamro.com Platinum to
More informationGoldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook
Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios Investment Outlook Overview The Goldman Sachs Asset Allocation Portfolios are managed by the Global Portfolio Solutions (GPS) team. 1 GPS has been designing customized
More informationGlobal Market Outlook 2018
Global Market Outlook 2018 Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist, BlackRock January 2018 FOR PROFESSIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS USE ONLY - Key themes for 2018 ROOM TO RUN INFLATION COMEBACK REDUCED
More informationMarket Commentary November 2015
Market Commentary November 2015 The Federal Reserve will, most likely, raise interest rates in December The last time rates were set up was in 2006. It could lead to higher volatility in the short term
More informationWhat Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling?
Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS What Are Consumer and Investor Confidence Signaling? September 19, 2017 Key Takeaways» Consumer and investor
More informationMarkets Overview Pulse & calendar Economic scenario
: : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: 1: 18: : : : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: 1: 18: : : : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: Markets have reacted in a calm way to the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal Despite the increase in geopolitical
More informationQuarterly Currency Outlook
Mature Economies Quarterly Currency Outlook MarketQuant Research Writing completed on July 12, 2017 Content 1. Key elements of background for mature market currencies... 4 2. Detailed Currency Outlook...
More informationA Major Pivot at Work
GWIM INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Viewpoint Chief Investment Office NOVEMBER 2016 A Major Pivot at Work This month s Investment Strategy Committee meeting focused on the investment implications of the
More informationGlobal Equites declined from Concern over Trade War
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 2 2018 on 3 April 2018 Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War Investment Outlook for 2 nd Quarter 2018 Equity Thailand U.S. Europe Japan Asia Bond Thailand
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationInvestment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets
Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets GSAM Insurance Fixed Income May 217 GSAM Insurance Asset Management Key Themes for 217 Economic Backdrop End of the Distortion Monetary to Fiscal
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly September 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Growth weakness in emerging
More informationEUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS. September 2006 Interim forecast
EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS September 26 Interim forecast Press conference of 6 September 26 European economic growth speeding up, boosted by buoyant domestic
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationMonthly Economic Report
Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were
More informationMonthly European ETF Market Trends May 2017 in brief
LYXOR ETF Research JUNE 217 OR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS WITHIN THE MEANING OF MARKETS IN FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS DIRECTIVE 24/39/EC. IT IS NOT DIRECTED AT RETAIL CLIENTS. 1 Monthly European ETF Market Trends
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationHSBC World Selection Portfolio Quarterly Report Q4 2018
HSBC World Selection Portfolio Quarterly Report Q4 2018 Date: January 2019 This commentary provides a high-level overview of the recent economic environment and is for information purposes only. It is
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationMarket turmoil prevails, the economy continues to grow
ING Investment Office Publication date: 13 June 2018, 1.15 p.m. Monthly Investment Outlook June 2018 Market turmoil prevails, the economy continues to grow May June Asset allocation - + Market turmoil
More informationInternational & Global Commentaries
International & Global Commentaries Market Review International Equity Global Select Looking Ahead Market Review In aggregate, global equities posted positive returns in the first quarter, with developed
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More information