The External Environment for Developing Countries
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1 d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
2 Global industrial production plummets into 4 th quarter of manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Developing 0-5 World OECD -20 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: DEC Prospects Group.
3 ...while worries about recession and banks push markets lower in January equity market indices (LCU)* Sep = DJIA (USA) DAX (Germany) TOPIX (Japan) MSCI (Emerging Markets) Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, Morgan Stanley (*USD index).
4 Industrial countries
5 U.S. employment losses in 2008 sum to 2.6 million...worst since 1945 change in non-farm employment, mma change monthly change -600 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: U.S. Department of Labor.
6 Falling exports, orders and production pressure U.S. GDP export volumes, durable goods orders and IPmfg, ch% saar Production [L] Export volumes [R] Durable goods orders [R] Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve. -40
7 6 5 4 Interbank market rates- and yield on ten-year note easing Fed Funds target- and effective rates; Libor and T-note 10 yr T-note 10-year LIBOR 6 months Fed Funds Effective Fed Funds Target Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream.
8 Japan s exports and production point to severe 4 th quarter downturn export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Industrial production [L] Export volumes [R] Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office. -30
9 3 Household spending turns to the doldrums in the last months of 2008 household expend, retail sales [L]; Tokyo consumer confidence [R] HH spending [L] Retail sales [L] Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: Japan Cabinet Office. Consumer confidence [R] 30 25
10 2.0 Yen strength on unwinding carry trades supports BOJ ease Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] JGB- ten year [L] Yen/dollar (inverse) [R] TIBOR 6 months [L] Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream. 115
11 European confidence plummets while ECB asesses economic damage 0-5 Euro Area consumer confidence [L]; IFO overall [R] IFO overall [R] EC Consumer confidence [L] Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: Eurostat-- Thomson/Datastream. 85
12 Production now in sharp decline across the Euro Area manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Germany Euro Area Italy France Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: Eurostat.
13 6.0 Euro interbank rates fall quickly adding pressure on the currency Euribor and Bund- 10 yr [L]; USD per Euro [R] EURIBOR 6 months [L] Bund, ten-year [L] USD per Euro [R] Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream. 1.22
14 Industrial production
15 Developing countries IP plunges, mirroring high-income countries real IP (3m/3m saar) Developing countries -4-8 High-income Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
16 30 East Asia and Central and Eastern Europe hit hardest real IP (3m/3m saar) ECA 0-10 East Asia, excl China Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
17 30 20 Dramatic IP contraction in export intensive economies real IP (6m/6m saar) Czech Republic Taiwan Turkey Hungary Korea -50 Jan-99 May-00 Sep-01 Jan-03 May-04 Sep-05 Jan-07 May-08 Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
18 International trade
19 Major OECD imports contract in step with domestic demand import volumes: U.S, Japan, Germany and U.K. ch% 3mma y/y Germany U.K. Japan United States Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.
20 35 Developing exports in decline export volumes: China, India, Mexico and Jordan ch% 3mma y/y 25 China 15 5 Mexico India Jordan Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.
21 U.S. trade balance improves sharply in November on plummeting oil price 0 goods balance, and oil- and non-oil balances ($bn) -20 Oil balance -40 Non-oil balance Goods balance Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Source: Department of Commerce.
22 Oil prices
23 $/bbl Oil prices appear to stabilize amid OPEC production cuts mb/d OPEC-11 Production (x Angola) [R] Oil price [L scale] Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group
24 Growth in U.S. Oil Demand (yr/yr) kb/d Other Resid Distillate Gasoline Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
25 $/bbl WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013 on select dates in Aug 29 Sep Jan Oct 31 Dec Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.
26 Non-oil commodity prices
27 Agriculture price declines begin to 2000=100 moderate Fats & Oils Grains Other Food 100 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
28 $/ton 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Metal prices rebound slightly on index rebalancing Copper price LME stocks 000 tons ,000 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group. Jan-09 0
29 mn tons Global steel production plunging China Other Asia Europe FSU Other N America Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
30 International Finance
31 A difficult year for emerging market capital flows Gross capital flows to emerging markets $ billion H1 Q3 Q4 Total H1 Q3 Q4 Dec Total Total Bonds Banks Equity Lat. America Bonds E. Europe Bonds Asia Bonds Others Source: DECPG Finance Team.
32 Equities post modest gains in December percentage change (in local currency) 2008 Nov Dec Oct -55 MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Mature Markets MSCI BRIC S&P 500 FTSE-100 Nikkei Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.
33 Sharp widening in EM bond spreads at year-end Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] EMBIG annual retruns [Left] EMBIG spread [Right] Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: JPMorgan-Chase and DECPG Finance Team.
34 Currencies
35 Dollar falls on Fed rate cut until ECB reduction seen as sure USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan USD/Euro (inverse) Source: Thomson/Datastream. yen/usd 90 86
36 6 Interest differentials well in favor of stronger euro since November USD Libor and EURIBOR (6 months), percent EURIBOR 6 months USD LIBOR 6 months Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream.
37 Dollar mixed against EM currencies LCU per USD indexes, Sept =100 [*increase = weaker LCU] Turkish lira Brazilian real Russian rouble Korean won 95 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream.
38 The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
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