International Economy Watch

Transcription

1 International Economy Watch August AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit GDP Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- Q- QoQ Change US Eurozone German French UK Japan QoQ Seas Adj Annualised Rate US Eurozone German French UK Japan YoY Change US Eurozone German French UK Japan US GDP picks up to. on an annualised basis in Q, from. in Q. Improved performance in Q was broad based, with consumer spending remaining crucial Eurozone growth slowed slightly to. in Q, though the pace of YoY growth continued to pick up, now at.. Nationally, German growth remained moderate at just.. Growth in France was flat, while Italy (+.) grew for a third consecutive quarter Pace of growth in the UK rebounded to. in Q, following Q s. result. Pick up in growth supported by strong exports Japanese economy contracted by. in Q, impacted by lower exports and consumer spending but YoY growth did rise to.. US GDP Growth Eurozone GDP Growth. UK GDP Growth. Japan GDP Growth Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Quarter-on-Quarter () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Quarter-on-Quarter () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Quarter-on-Quarter () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Quarter-on-Quarter () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Note: All data sourced from Thomson Reuters, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce, Eurostat, Germany Federal Sta s cs Office, INSEE, ONS, Japanese Cabinet Office, Ins tute for Supply Management, European Commission, Ifo, German Centre for European Economic Research, ISTAT, Bank of Japan, Chinese Na onal Bureau of Sta s cs, OECD, JP Morgan, Federal Reserve, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, CPD Netherlands, US Census Bureau, Conference Board, University of Michigan, G Group, US Bureau of Labor Sta s cs, Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs, European Central Bank, Bundesagentur fur Arbeit, Japanese Ministry of Health and Labour, US Na onal Associa on of Realtors, US Na onal Associa on of Home Builders, UK Department of Community & Local Government, Bank of England, RICS, HBoS, Na onwide, Standard & Poor s, Dow Jones, STOXX, Deutsche Boerse, FTSE, NIKKEI, ICIS Pricing, London Bullion Market, Commodity Research Bureau.

2 Leading Activity Indicators Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- US - Manufacturing ISM #N/A - Services ISM #N/A - Business Activity #N/A Eurozone - EC Econ. Sentiment German IFO German ZEW French INSEE Italian ISTAT UK - EC Economic Sentiment EC Industrial Sentiment EC Services Sentiment Japan - Tankan Manufacturing ` - Tankan Services China - NBS Manufacturing PMI #N/A ` - NBS Services PMI #N/A Global - Manufacturing PMI #N/A ` - Services PMI #N/A ` - Composite PMI #N/A - OECD Lead Indicator #N/A #N/A US ISM surveys suggest that growth in the services sector remains strong, while manufacturing continues to struggle somewhat Eurozone EC economic sentiment index hits a yr high in August, but continues to suggest moderate pace of growth backed up by national level data UK EC economic sentiment rises again in August services sector continues to improve, while industrial sector struggles Japanese Tankan suggests business sentiment softer in Q may reflect some concerns over China Chinese PMIs (esp. mfg index) remain quite subdued Global composite PMI data indicate economy maintaining moderate pace of growth US ISM Indices EC Econ Sentiment & German Ifo UK EC Sentiment JPMorgan Global PMI Manufacturing Services EC Economic Sentiment : LHS German Ifo : RHS Industrial Index : LHS Services Index : RHS Manufacturing Services

3 Industrial Output May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Industrial Production - Volume Indices US Eurozone (ex Construction) #N/A Germany (inc Construction) #N/A UK - Total #N/A - Manufacturing #N/A Japan MoM Change US Eurozone (ex Construction) #N/A Germany (inc Construction) #N/A UK - Total #N/A - Manufacturing #N/A Japan YoY Change US Eurozone (ex Construction) #N/A Germany (inc Construction) #N/A UK - Total #N/A - Manufacturing #N/A Japan World Industrial Production (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) MoM #N/A Mth / Mth #N/A Mth Avg YoY #N/A US industrial production rises in July after declining in Q, boosted by strong growth in automobile manufacturing Production in the Eurozone fell by. in Q after strong growth of in Q reflects renewed decline in energy output. Manufacturing (excludes energy) rose by. in Q In contrast, UK output was boosted by increased energy output in Q. Production grew by., best performance since Q Japanese production remains volatile, though recent underlying trend has been negative. Production fell by. in July after declining by. in Q YoY pace of growth in global production continued to slow in Q Industrial Orders MoM Change US - Factory Goods #N/A Germany #N/A Japan - Core Machinery (Value) #N/A YoY Change US #N/A Germany #N/A Japan - Core Machinery (Value) #N/A US factory orders pick up in July (+.) for only the second time in months German orders pick up by. in Q after declining by. in Q Japanese orders fall sharply in June after several months of gains, YoY growth strong. US Industrial Production (). Eurozone Industrial Production (). UK Industrial Production () Japanese Industrial Production () Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS

4 Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICATORS US - Conference Board Expectations US - Univ. Michigan Sentiment Expectations Eurozone - European Commission Germany - European Commission Gfk Consumer Climate France - INSEE #N/A UK - European Commission Gfk Some divergence between Michigan and Conf Board surveys, but overall US consumer confidence remains strong in August Eurozone consumer confidence edges lower in July/August Likewise, EC UK consumer confidence data a bit softer in July/August RETAIL SALES US - Headline (Value $ m),,,,,,,,,,,,,, #N/A - Ex Autos (Value $ m),,,,,,,,,,,,,, #N/A - Auto Sales (mln, s.a.a.r.) #N/A Eurozone (Volume Index) #N/A #N/A UK (Volume Index) #N/A Japan (Value Index),,,,,,,,,,,,,, #N/A MoM US - Headline (Value) #N/A - Ex Autos (Value) #N/A Eurozone (Volume) #N/A #N/A UK (Volume) #N/A Japan (Value) #N/A YoY US - Headline (Value) #N/A - Ex Autos (Value) #N/A - Auto Sales (MMA) #N/A Eurozone (Volume) #N/A #N/A UK (Volume) #N/A Japan (Value) #N/A US retail sales (value) remain on good upward trend despite further fall in oil prices in July auto sales strong Eurozone sales grow for a th consecutive quarter in Q, though pace of growth slowed to. from in Q Growth in UK retail sales has slowed in recent months. But, data show improvements remain generally broad based, pace of YoY growth remains strong Japanese retail sales remain volatile. They grew by a modest. in Q, following Q s sharp. decline US Consumer Confidence US Retail Sales () Eurozone Retail Sales () UK Retail Sales () Conference Board Index Univ. Michigan Measure Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS Month-on-Month () : LHS Year-on-Year () : RHS

5 Consumer Prices CONSUMER PRICES Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- YoY Change US CPI #N/A Eurozone HICP German CPI French CPI #N/A UK CPI #N/A - UK CPI : Ex Taxes #N/A Japanese CPI #N/A MoM Change US CPI (seas.adj.) #N/A Eurozone HICP German CPI French CPI #N/A UK CPI #N/A Japanese CPI (seas.adj.) #N/A US CPI inflation remains weak. Further fall in energy prices in August means inflation may turn negative again in the coming months Eurozone inflation holds at. (flash reading) in August could be revised down given fall in oil prices towards end of the month UK inflation edges up to. in July, in part reflects earlier end to summer sales this year Japanese inflation lower still in July base effects from VAT hike now gone Core CPI YoY Change US () #N/A Eurozone () UK () #N/A Japan () #N/A Japan : Core-Core () #N/A MoM Change US (seas.adj) () #N/A Eurozone () UK () #N/A Japan (seas.adj) () #N/A Japan (seas.adj) : Core-Core () #N/A US core CPI stuck in a.- range since mid Core Eurozone inflation stuck in.-. since May Core UK inflation back above in July, may in part reflect base effects Japan (ex-food & energy) inflation edges up in June/ July, but way off recent highs as VAT hike impact gone () Excluding Food & Energy () Excluding Energy & Unprocessed Food () Excluding Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco () Excluding Fresh Food () Excluding Food & Energy US CPI Inflation Eurozone CPI Inflation UK CPI Inflation Japan CPI Inflation Headline () Core: Ex Food & Energy () Headline () Core: Ex Energy & Unprocessed Food () Headline () Core: Ex Food, Energy, Alcohol & Tobacco () Headline () Core: Ex Food & Energy ()

6 Labour Market EMPLOYMENT May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- US Non-Farm Payroll - Mth (') GROWTH YoY US Civilian Employment Eurozone (Q) #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A Germany #N/A #N/A France (Q) #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A UK ( Mth to) #N/A Japan - Regular Employees #N/A UNEMPLOYMENT RATE US Civilian Employment Eurozone #N/A Germany #N/A France #N/A UK ( Mth to) #N/A Japan EARNINGS GROWTH YoY US - Employment Cost Index (Q) #N/A - Average Earnings UK - Weekly Earnings (Ex-bonus) #N/A Eurozone - Wage Growth (Q) #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A Germany - Wage Growth #N/A Japan - Average Earnings #N/A US payrolls have regained momentum recently (mth avg k vs k in previous mth). Unemployment rate remained at a -year low of. in July Eurozone employment growth remains modest at. YoY in Q. Unemployment at a yr low of. in June. Dichotomy between German (.) & French (.) unemployment remains wide Pace of UK employment growth picks up for the first time since end in June. But at., remains well off mid levels. Unemploy rate remains at. in June Japanese unemployment rate at an yr low in July US earnings growth slows in Q, now around YoY UK earnings remain at a ½ year high of. in June Eurozone wage growth jumps to. in Q Japanese earnings growth falls sharply in June on base effects from bonuses in (Q) Monthly data interpolated from quarterly series US Unemployment Rate () Eurozone Unemployment Rate (). UK Unemployment Rate (). Japanese Unemployment Rate () Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug-.

7 Housing Market RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- US - Starts (') s.a.a.r.,,,,,,,,,, #N/A US - Permits (') s.a.a.r.,,,,,,,,,,,,,, #N/A Eurozone - Permits ( = ) #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A UK Starts (MQ),,,,,,,,,,,,, #N/A #N/A US NAHB Sentiment YoY US - Starts - Mth Avg #N/A US - Permits - Mth Avg #N/A Eurozone - Permits #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A UK Starts (MQ) #N/A #N/A SALES US - New Homes (') s.a.a.r. #N/A - Mth Avg YoY #N/A US - Existing Homes (') s.a.a.r.,,,,,,,,,,,,,, #N/A - Mth Avg YoY #N/A US - Pending Sales Index #N/A - Mth Avg YoY #N/A UK - Transactions over k (') #N/A PRICES MoM Change US - Case Shiller (seas adj) #N/A #N/A UK - Halifax #N/A - Nationwide YoY Change US - Case Shiller #N/A #N/A UK - Halifax ( Mth Mov Avg) #N/A - Nationwide UK - RICS House Price Balance #N/A US housing starts & permits have seen a marked improvement in recent months. Pace of YoY growth at rates not seen since mid UK housing starts decline by. YoY in Q YoY growth in US existing home sales increases to. in months to July. Sales in July at their highest level since Feb YoY growth in new home sales also strong, at + in mth to July Volume of UK housing transactions has moved higher in recent months YoY growth in US Case- Shiller house prices remains stable at Some divergence in measures of UK house prices. YoY growth in Halifax at. in July, Nationwide at just. RICS house price balance up for a sixth straight month in July, suggests UK house price growth accelerating (MQ) Monthly average of Quarterly data ' US Housing Sales ' UK Transactions & Price Balance - - US Case Shiller House Prices ( Cities) UK House Prices (YoY, ) Source: Thomson Existing Home Sales s.a.a.r. : LHS Pending Home Sales Index : RHS Datastream - Source: Thomson Transactions (Volume) : LHS RICS House Price Balance : RHS Datastream - - Month-on-Month : LHS Year-on-Year : RHS Source: Datastream Thomson - Source: Thomson Nationwide House Prices () Halifax House Prices (mth Move Avg) Datastream

8 Financial & Commodity Markets This Month Latest Monthly Averages : Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- To Date Value Stock Markets US - Dow Jones US - S&P EZ - EuroStoxx DE - Dax UK - FTSE JPN - Nikkei Sharp sell-off on equity markets in August, largely due to market turbulence in China and global growth concerns, with falling energy prices also hitting some stocks Exchange Rates Trade Weighted Indices $ - Broad ECB Broad BoE Effective BoE. vs Euro USD GBP JPY vs Dollar GBP JPY Commodity Markets Oil - West Texas Oil - Brent $ Oil - Brent Oil - Brent CRB Commodity Index Gold ($ per Oz) USD came under some pressure against the euro during Chinese turmoil, but gains against some other currencies Weak inflation and economic uncertainty could delay UK rate hikes has weighed on sterling in recent weeks Euro saw some benefit from recent risk-off tone to markets, still weaker YTD Yen relatively stable, but remains weak as the BoJ continues its QE programme Further fall in oil prices reflects in part concerns over outlook for global demand Broad based sell-off in commodities weighs on CRB index, lowest since mid Gold down at a yr low (near $,) with US rate hike for still on the table This publication is for information purposes and is not an invitation to deal. The information is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Any expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. This publication is not to be reproduced in whole or in part without prior permission. In the Republic of Ireland it is distributed by Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. In the UK it is distributed by Allied Irish Banks, plc and Allied Irish Banks (GB). In Northern Ireland it is distributed by First Trust Bank. In the United States of America it is distributed by Allied Irish Banks, plc. Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Allied Irish Bank (GB) and First Trust Bank are trade marks used under licence by AIB Group (UK) p.l.c. (a wholly owned subsidiary of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.), incorporated in Northern Ireland. Registered Office Ann Street, Belfast BT HH. Registered Number NI. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. In the United States of America, Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c., New York Branch, is a branch licensed by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Deposits and other investment products are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed by any bank and they may lose value. Please note that telephone calls may be recorded in line with market practice. AIB Bankcentre, Ballsbridge, Dublin Tel: --