Weekly Macroeconomic Update WEEKLY SUMMARY

Transcription

1 Weekly Macroeconomic Update WEEKLY SUMMARY US The unemployment rate in October dropped to 5.0 from 5.1 the previous month. The trade deficit narrowed slightly, to $40.8 billion, in September, which was lower than the market expectation and significantly lower than August s $48 billion. The ISM Manufacturing Index dropped slightly, to 50.1, in October from 50.2 in September, but the reading was slightly higher than the market expectation of 5. Europe The UK trade deficit in September was billion, narrowing from August s billion deficit. Total UK production output is estimated to have increased by 1.1 in September 2015 compared with September 2014; manufacturing output decreased by 0.6 year over year. In France, the trade deficit widened in September, to 3.38 billion. In Germany, industrial production in September decreased by 1.1 versus August. German manufacturing orders decreased by 1.7 in September compared with August. LatAm Mexico s seasonally adjusted Consumer Confidence Index improved to 91.6 in October. Brazil registered a trade surplus of US$1.996 billion in October. Brazil s industrial production slid 10.9 in September 2015 over the same month last year. GDP GDP Growth Rate: QoQ Change 4Q Q Q Q 2015 US UK Germany N/A France N/A Mexico N/A Brazil N/A Source: OECD 1

2 MOVERS US Both the unemployment rate (at 5.0) and the number of unemployed persons (at 7.9 million) were essentially unchanged in October. The number of long- term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged, at 2.1 million, in October and has changed little since June. The report shows a positive view of the labor market, which supports an interest rate hike in December. Figure 1. US Unemployment Rate October 2010 October Oct- 10 Apr- 11 Oct- 11 Apr- 12 Oct- 12 Apr- 13 Oct- 13 Apr- 14 The goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion in September, down $7.2 billion from $48.0 billion in August. September exports totaled $187.9 billion, $3.0 billion more than in August. September imports were $228.7 billion, $4.2 billion less than in August. Figure 2. US International Trade in Goods and Services (Seasonally Adjusted): YoY Change September 2012 September (8.0) Sep- 12 Dec- 12 Mar- 13 Jun- 13 Sep- 13 Dec- 13 Mar- 14 Jun- 14 Exports Imports The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 50.1 in October, down by 0.1 percentage point from the September reading of 50.2 and approaching contraction level. This is the lowest point recorded since October 2012, showing enduring weakness in the manufacturing s sector outlook. Figure 3. ISM Manufacturing Index October 2010 October Oct- 10 Apr- 11 Oct- 11 Apr- 12 Oct- 12 Apr- 13 Oct- 13 Apr- 14 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Census Bureau/ISM 2

3 MOVERS UK, GERMANY AND FRANCE The UK s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been 1.4 billion in September, down by 1.6 billion form the August figure. Exports of goods increased by 0.6 billion, to 24.0 billion, in September. Imports of goods decreased by 0.9 billion, to 33.3 billion, over the same period. Figure 4. UK Trade Balance: YoY Change September 2013 September (5.0) (1) (15.0) Sep- 13 Nov- 13 Jan- 14 Mar- 14 May- 14 Jul- 14 Goods Balance Services Balance Total Trade Total UK production output is estimated to have increased by 1.1 in September compared with September Manufacturing output decreased by 0.6 in September compared with the same month a year ago. Figure 5. UK Manufacturing Output and Total Production Output (2012 = 100) September 2013 September Manufacturing Producmon 97.0 Sep- 13 Nov- 13 Jan- 14 Mar- 14 May- 14 Jul- 14 France s trade deficit increased to 3.38 billion in September from 2.98 billion in August. Exports dropped by 0.6, to billion, in September compared with August. Imports grew by 0.5, to billion, compared to the previous month. Figure 6. France Trade Balance September 2014 September 2015 (2.0) (3.0) (3.4) (5.0) EUR Billion Source: Office for National Statistics/Ministère de l'économie et des Finances 3

4 In September, production in industry in Germany was down by 1.1 from the previous month. The September decline extends the drop in production to two consecutive months. Figure 7. Germany Industrial Production: MoM Change September 2014 September (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (1.1) New manufacturing orders fell by 1.7 between August and September, in calendar and seasonally adjusted terms. In the third quarter, the manufacturing sector saw orders fall by 2.8 from the preceding quarter. Figure 8. Germany Manufacturing Orders: MoM Change September 2014 September (2.0) (1.7) Source: Destatis 4

5 MOVERS MEXICO AND BRAZIL Mexico s Consumer Confidence Index read 91.6 for October on a seasonally adjusted basis, a significant improvement over September s Figure 9. Mexico Consumer Confidence Index (Seasonally Adjusted) October 2014 October Brazil registered a trade surplus of US$1.996 billion in October, down from September s US$2.944 billion surplus. Figure 10. Brazil Trade Balance October 2014 October (2.0) USD Billion Brazil s industrial output declined for a fourth straight month in September, falling by a seasonally adjusted 1.3 in September versus August. Production in September slid 10.9 from a year earlier, the steepest decline since April Figure 11. Brazil Industrial Output September 2014 September 2015 (2.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.9) (1) (12.0) Source: FXStreet/Banco de México 5

6 US MARKET DATA US Government Bond Yields (Percent) Friday 1 Week US Markets WEEKLY MACROECONOMIC UPDATE Friday 1 Week 2- Year Treasury Dow Jones 17, , , Year Treasury S&P 500 2, , , Year Treasury Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Indexes US Regular Gas Price (USD) 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 Dow Jones Ind. Avg. (leo) S&P 500 Index (right) 2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $ /2/2015 $2.224 Source: S&P Capital IQ/US Energy Information Administration EUROPE MARKET DATA Government Bond Yields (Percent) Friday UK 2- Year UK 5- Year Germany 2- Year Germany 5- Year France 2- Year France 5- Year FTSE 100 Index 7,200 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 6,354 CAC 40 Index 5,500 5,000 4,984 DAX Index 12,500 11,500 4,500 4,000 3,500 10,988 10,500 9,500 8,500 Source: Investing.com/S&P Capital IQ/FT.com 6

7 LATIN AMERICA MARKET DATA Government Bond Yields (Percent) Friday 1 Week Markets WEEKLY MACROECONOMIC UPDATE Friday 1 Week Mexico 5- Year IPC Mexico 45, , , Mexico 10- Year Bovespa Brazil 46, , , Brazil 5- Year Brazil 10- Year Mexico: IPC Index 46,000 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 41,000 40,000 45,244 Brazil: Bovespa Index 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 46,919 Source: Investing.com/S&P Capital IQ Macro Calendar Country/Region Date Release Period Covered Germany November 9, 2015 Current Account September 2015 US November 9, 2015 Labor Market Conditions Index October 2015 Mexico November 9, 2015 Core Inflation Rate October 2015 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor October 2015 France Industrial Output September 2015 US Export Price Index October 2015 US Import Price Index October 2015 UK November 11, 2015 Claimant Count Rate October 2015 UK November 12, 2015 RICS Housing Price Balance October 2015 Brazil November 12, 2015 Retail Sales September 2015 Germany November 12, 2015 Consumer Price Index October 2015 France November 13, 2015 Gross Domestic Product 3Q 2015 Italy November 13, 2015 Gross Domestic Product 3Q 2015 UK November 16, 2015 Rightmove House Price Index November 2015 Italy November 16, 2015 Global Trade Balance September 2015 UK November 17, 2015 Consumer Price Index October 2015 Germany November 17, 2015 ZEW Economic Sentiment November 2015 US November 17, 2015 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy October 2015 US November 17, 2015 NAHB Housing Market Index November

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