Latin America In Brazil, the FGV Consumer Confidence Index further improved to 79.3 in August, up from 76.7 in July.

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1 September 2, 2016 i l The GDP quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate for the second quarter was revised down, to 1.1%, following lackluster growth of 0.8% in the first quarter and 0.9% in the last quarter of New home sales surged by 12.4% month over month in July against a backdrop of a better job market and low interest rates. Existing home sales fell by 3.2% month over month due to a lack of supply; homeowners have been reluctant to put their homes on the market because they expect home prices to rise. Europe The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ticked down to 51.8 in August from 52.0 in July, but remained above the 50.0 threshold, indicating that the sector is expanding. The Germany Ifo Business Climate Index declined to in August, below July s reading of and the consensus estimate of Business confidence may wane further as tailwinds including falling oil prices and the depreciating euro fade, and as headwinds including further Brexit uncertainty surface. The Germany GfK Consumer Climate Indicator, on the other hand, ticked up to 10.2 in September from 10.0 in August, indicating that consumers are feeling more confident about the future of the economy than business managers are. Latin America In Brazil, the FGV Consumer Confidence Index further improved to 79.3 in August, up from 76.7 in July. Mexico s GDP fell by 0.2% quarter over quarter in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted), which was better than the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía s (INEGI s) initial estimate of a 0.3% decline. The full-year GDP estimate for 2016 was revised down to 2.0% 2.6%. In June, Mexico s retail sales grew by 1.0% month over month, versus an expected contraction of 0.3%.

2 Figure 1. Macro Indicators Country/ Region Indicator Period Survey Actual Prior Impact on Consumption GDP, Annualized QoQ (Secondary) 2Q 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%* New Home Sales, MoM Jul (2.0)% 12.4% 3.5% + Existing Home Sales, MoM Jul (1.1)% (3.2)% 1.1% EU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing Aug PMI (Prelim.) GE Ifo Business Climate Index Aug GE Ifo Expectations Aug GE GfK Consumer Confidence Sep BZ FGV Consumer Confidence Aug MX GDP, SA QoQ (Final) 2Q (0.3)% (0.2)% (0.3)%* MX Retail Sales, SA MoM Jun (0.3)% 1.0% 1.2% + Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/ Census Bureau/National Association of Realtors/Ifo Institute for Economic Research/GfK/Markit/Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)/INEGI/Fung Global Retail & Technology *Asterisks denote prior official releases before restatements. : GDP Revised Down; New Home Sales Improved The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised down the GDP quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate for the second quarter, to 1.1% from 1.2% previously. This followed lackluster growth of 0.8% in the first quarter of the year and 0.9% in the last quarter of The downward revisions were in government spending, inventories and net exports. The GDP annualized quarterover-quarter growth rate for the second quarter was revised down, to 1.1%. Figure 2. : GDP (Annualized), QoQ % Change % (1.0) (2.0) 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2

3 New and Existing Home Sales Diverge New home sales jumped by 12.4% month over month in July, while existing home sales declined by 3.2%. The shortage in supply of existing homes for sale reveals that homeowners expect home prices to rise, pointing to a resilient housing market. New home sales jumped by 12.4% month over month in July, reaching 654,000 units on the back of strong job growth, improved disposable income and low interest rates. The sales figure beat the consensus estimate, which called for a 2.0% decline, to 580,000 units. Existing home sales declined by 3.2% month over month in July, to 5.4 million, after four consecutive months of increases. Sales of single-family houses fell by 2.0%, while sales of multi-family condominiums and co-ops plunged by 12.3%. The decline in existing home sales was mainly due to a lack of supply rather than weak demand, as indicated by a 5.8% drop in the number of houses available for sale. Homeowners have been reluctant to put their homes on the market, as they expect home prices to rise at a much faster pace than income growth; this points to a resilient housing market. Figure 3. : New Home Sales (Thous. Units); Existing Home Sales (Mil. Units) New Home Sales ExisVng Home Sales Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Source: Census Bureau/National Association of Realtors 3

4 Europe: Eurozone PMI Points to Expansion; Germany Ifo Business Climate Index Dropped The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which measures economic activity in the euro area, stood at 51.8 in August, down from 52.0 in July but above the 50.0 threshold pointing to expansion of the manufacturing sector. Figure 4. Eurozone: Markit Manufacturing PMI, Seasonally Adjusted Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Source: Markit In Germany, consumers seem to have more confidence about the future of the economy than business managers do. The Germany Ifo Business Climate Index declined to in August, below July s reading of and the consensus estimate of The Ifo Expectations also fell in August, to 100.1, which was below July s figure and the consensus estimate of Business confidence may wane further as tailwinds including falling oil prices and the depreciating euro fade, and as headwinds including further Brexit uncertainty surface. On the flip side, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate Indicator ticked up to 10.2 in September from 10.0 in August. Consumers seem to have more confidence about the future of the economy than business managers do. Figure 5. Germany: Ifo Business Climate and Expectations; GfK Consumer Confidence Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Ifo Business Climate Ifo Expectanons Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Source: Ifo Institute for Economic Research 4

5 In Brazil, the FGV Consumer Confidence Index further improved, to 79.3, in August. Latin America: Brazil s Consumer Confidence Improved; Mexico s Economy Better than Expected In Brazil, the FGV Consumer Confidence Index further improved, to 79.3, in August, up from 76.7 in July. The recent sequential improvements in consumer confidence and retail sales are positive signs for the country s recovery. However, the worsening job market and PMI may still be a drag on the economy. Figure 6. Brazil: FGV Consumer Confidence Index, Seasonally Adjusted Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Mexico s GDP fell by 0.2% quarter over quarter in the second quarter as demand for Mexican goods weakened. Source: INEGI Mexico s GDP fell by 0.2% quarter over quarter in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted), which was better than INEGI s initial estimate of a 0.3% decline. Year over year, GDP grew by 2.5% in the second quarter. Deputy Finance Minister Fernando Aportela revised the full-year GDP estimate for 2016 down, from 2.2% 3.2% to 2.0% 2.6%, as weakening demand from the for Mexican goods has been a strong headwind to the country s economy. Figure 7. Mexico: GDP (Seasonally Adjusted), QoQ % Change (0.5) (1.0) 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 (0.2) Source: INEGI 5

6 Mexico s retail sales in June were a positive surprise to the market, growing at 1.0% month over month, above the estimate for a 0.3% contraction. The sales figure grew by 9.4% year over year in June, above the estimate of 7.0%. Figure 8. Mexico: Retail Sales (Seasonally Adjusted), MoM % Change (2.0) () Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Source: INEGI Figure 9. Upcoming Economic Data Releases Date Country Indicator Period Covered Sep 6 MX Consumer Confidence Index Aug Sep 7 GE Industrial Production (Seasonally Adjusted) Jul Sep 8 Initial Jobless Claims Sep 3 Sep 8 MX CPI Aug Sep 9 BZ IBGE Inflation IPCA Aug Sep 13 GE CPI (Final) Aug Sep 13 UK CPI Aug Sep 13 GE ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep Sep 13 GE ZEW Survey Expectations Sep Sep 13 BZ Retail Sales Jul Sep 14 FR CPI EU Harmonized (Final) Aug Sep 14 FR CPI (Final) Aug Sep 14 UK Jobless Claims Change Aug Sep 14 UK ILO Unemployment Rate, 3 Mos. Jul Sep 15 UK Retail Sales Aug Sep 15 Initial Jobless Claims Sep 10 Sep 16 CPI Aug 6

7 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Managing Director Fung Global Retail & Technology New York: Hong Kong: China: Kiril Popov Senior Analyst Esme Pau Analyst Charlie Poon Research Assistant HONG KONG: 8 th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: LONDON: Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0) NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9 th Floor New York, NY Tel: FBICGROUP.COM 7