Daily FX Focus 24/12/2018

Transcription

1 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 24/12/218 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance contained in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend Last week, Australia unemployment rate was higher than expected in November. Last AUD vs USD.691 /.7274 week, AUDUSD once dropped to.729 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November private sector credit. Last week, Germany IFO business climate was lower than expected in December. Last EUR vs USD / week, EURUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Germany December CPI revised value. Last week, UK CPI was as expected, but retail price index was lower than expected in GBP vs USD / November. Last week, GBPUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be UK's December house price index. Last week, New Zealand performance services index slowed down in November. Last NZD vs USD.6624 /.689 week, NZDUSD once dropped to.674 levels. The upcoming release will be New CAD Support / Resistance vs USD / Market commentary Zealand's December Trade Balance. Last week, Canada CPI was lower than expected in November, in addition to WTI oil price dropped to almost 16 months low. Last week, USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Markit manufacturing PMI. Last week, BOJ kept interest rate unchanged n December, but as USD dropped, Last week, JPY vs USD 11.1 / USDJPY once dropped to 11.8 levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's November unemployment rate. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency AUD RBA kept interest rate unchanged in December. Last week, Australia unemployment rate was higher than expected in November. Last week, AUDUSD once dropped to.729 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November private sector credit. 24-Dec.73 Daily change: -.79% (-) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.1% in previous quarter High.7393 (~) Australia Q3 CPI rose.4% YoY, same as previous quarter Low.729 (-) Australia November unemployment rate arrived at 5.1%, higher than 5% in previous month Support*.691 (~) Australia November Commodity Price Index arrived at 14.9%, same as previous month Resistance* AUD/USD 6-month Chart AUD/USD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.65 9 AUD/USD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3

2 24/12/218 EUR ECB kept interest rates unchanged in October as expected. Last week, Germany IFO business climate was lower than expected in December. Last week, EURUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Germany December CPI revised value. 24-Dec Daily change: -.32% (-) Germany Q3 GDP fell.2% QoQ, lower than an increase of.5% in previous quarter High (-) Eurozone November CPI rose 1.9% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.2% in previous month Low (-) Germany December manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.5, lower than 51.8 in previous month Support* (-) Germany December Business Climate arrived at 11, lower than 12 in previous month Resistance* EUR/USD 6-month Chart EUR/USD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average EUR/USD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 GBP Last week, UK CPI was as expected, but retail price index was lower than expected in November. Last week, GBPUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be UK's December house price index. 24-Dec Daily change:.11% (+) UK November CPI rose.2% YoY, higher than an increase of.1% in previous month High (+) UK November Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.6% in previous month Low (~) UK ILO October's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.1%, same as previous month Support* (+) UK November Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.6% in previous month Resistance* GBP/USD 6-month Chart GBP/USD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/USD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3

3 24/12/218 NZD RBNZ maintained November offical cash rate unchanged as expected. Last week, New Zealand performance services index slowed down in November. Last week, NZDUSD once dropped to.674 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's December Trade Balance. 24-Dec.672 (-) New Zealand Q3 GDP rose 2.6% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.2% in previous quarter Daily change: -.53% (+) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.5% in previous quarter High.6969 (+) New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 3.9%, lower than 4.4% in previous quarter Low.673 Support*.6624 (+) New Zealand November Commodity Price Index arrived at -.6%, dropped less than -2.4% in previous Resistance*.689 month.75 NZD/USD 6-month Chart NZD/USD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average NZD/USD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 JPY Last week, BOJ kept interest rate unchanged n December, but as USD dropped, Last week, USDJPY once dropped to 11.8 levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's November unemployment rate. 24-Dec Daily change:.36% (-) Japan Q3 GDP kept flat YoY, lower than an increase of 1.4% in previous quarter High (-) Japan November CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low (+) Japan December manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.4, higher than 52.2 in previous month Support* 11.1 (~) Japan October Industrial Production rose 2.9% MoM, same as previous month Resistance* USD/JPY 6-month Chart USD/JPY 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/JPY 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3

4 24/12/218 CAD Bank of Canada kept interest rate unchanged in December. Last week, Canada CPI was lower than expected in November, in addition to WTI oil price dropped to almost 16 months low. Last week, USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Markit manufacturing PMI. ` 24-Dec 1.36 (+) Canada October GDP rose 2.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.1% in previous month Daily change: -.36% (-) Canada November CPI rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.4% in previous month High (+) Canada November unemployment rate arrived at 5.6%, lower than 5.8% in previous month Low Support* (+) Canada November Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.9, higher than 53.9 in previous month Resistance* USD/CAD 6-month Chart USD/CAD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/CAD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3

5 24/12/218 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of December 24, 218 Analysts Previous Actual United States 26-Dec-18 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Dec 15% 14% - 27-Dec-18 Consumer Confidence* Dec Dec-18 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 215K 214K - 27-Dec-18 Continuing Claims Weekly 1673K 1688K - 27-Dec-18 New Home Sales* Nov 566K 544K - 27-Dec-18 New Home Sales* Nov 566K 544K - 28-Dec-18 Wholesale Inventories Nov.5%.8% - 28-Dec-18 Pending Home Sales MoM Nov 1% -2.6% - Regional 27-Dec-18 Hong Kong Export YoY % Nov 7.7% 14.6% - 27-Dec-18 Hong Kong Import YoY % Nov 7.1% 13.1% - G7 Countries 27-Dec-18 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) Nov -.1%.33% - 28-Dec-18 Germany Consumr Price Index (MoM) Dec.3%.1% - 28-Dec-18 Germany Consumr Price Index (YoY) Dec 1.9% 2.3% - 28-Dec-18 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) Dec 1.9% 2.2% - 28-Dec-18 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) Dec.4%.1% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) Nov -1.7% 2.9% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Jobless Rate* Nov 2.4% 2.4% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Dec.9% 1% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Job-to-Applicant Ratio* Nov 1.63% 1.62% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Tokyo CPI YoY Dec.5%.8% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Retail Trade YoY Nov 2.1% 3.6% - 28-Dec-18 Japan Retail Trade MoM SA Nov -.4% 1.3% -

6 24/12/218 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Jan-19 Canada (BOC) Jan-19 Europe (ECB).. 24-Jan-19 Japan (BOJ) Jan-19 UK (BOE) Feb-19 Malaysia Jan-19 Australia (RBA) Feb-19 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Feb-19 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 24 Dec 218 before 9: am Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <3. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Disclaimer This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment or subscribe for, or to participate in, any services. The information contained in this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. You should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances and make investment decisions on your own. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness. The Bank is not responsible for any loss, damages or other consequences of any kind that you may incur or suffer as a result of or in relation to your use of or reliance on this document. The contents of this document are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified. You SHOULD NOT reproduce or further distribute the contents of this document to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. Issued by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited