Daily FX Market Commentary

Transcription

1 EUR/USD - EUR Underperform Eurozone data printed on the soft side. German inflation was unrevised in the final November reading. French CPI fell 0.3% YoY while Italian industrial production lowered to -3.0%. ECB announced allotment of EUR129.84bn in the second tranche of its targeted long-term loans, which pressured the bank to ease policy more dramatically next year. However, EUR/USD edged up above following the announcement, and reached the highest Then the pair plunged to low after the release of US retail sales. EUR/USD EUR/HKD Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change -0.30% EUR/USD Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support EUR/HKD GBP/USD - GBP Neutral Cable fell against the dollar for the first time in four days on an upbeat US retail sales, increasing the expectations that US raises its interest rates sooner than expected. In contrast, BoE Mark Carney kept his speech on dovish tone and the timing of the first hike in UK was still uncertain. Furthermore, UK house prices grew at their slowest rate in a year and a half during the past three months. Cable fell to an intraday low but soon climbed back to s and ended it there. GBP/USD Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change +0.11% GBP/HKD GBP/USD Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support GBP/HKD Page 1

2 AUD/USD - AUD Underperform AUD/USD rose about 30 pips after the Australia employment change for November came at 42.7k vs 15k exp. Then the pair retreated back to level and started to go even lower when European session started. RBA Gov Stevens commented in the AFR that he preferred to see an exchange rate of AUD/USD plummeted to a four and a half year low at AUD/USD Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change -0.54% AUD/USD Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support AUD/HKD AUD/HKD NZD/USD - NZD Neutral NZD/USD fell from the day high of to an session low of after US retail sales for November printed at 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% exp. RBNZ delivered hawkish comments yesterday as he raised the concerns over house price inflation whilst at the same time adding he has no plans for further macro prudential measures, which implied that rate hikes will be used next. as NZD/USD Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change +0.05% NZD/HKD NZD/USD Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support NZD/HKD Page 2

3 USD/CAD - CAD Underperform The Canadian dollar printed a new 5-year low at against the dollar on Thursday. Another drop in the price of crude oil further pressured on the loonie. US crude futures ended the day below $60 per barrel. Together with the strong retail sales data from the US, USD/CAD was lifted to a new high and closed the day at USD/CAD Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change +0.37% USD/CAD Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support CAD/HKD CAD/HKD USD/CHF - CHF Neutral USD/CHF held steady on Thursday after three days losses. Dollar recovery from the robust US data provided support to the pair. The Swiss National Bank kept its cap on the franc at 1.20 per euro in yesterday s policy meeting, reiterating its commitment to defend the limit with currency interventions. The three-month Libor was kept at target range of percent, met market expectations. USD/CHF Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change +0.18% CHF/HKD USD/CHF Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support CHF/HKD Page 3

4 USD/JPY - JPY Neutral USD/JPY rebounded from the weekly low at on Thursday, after three straight days of losses. Robust US data suggested US is still on the track to recover economic growth. Report showed new jobless claims in US remained below 300K over last week. The pair was choppy overnight and climbed to the top of , but soon retreated to end the session at Today s key local event would be Japan s industrial output for October. USD/JPY Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change +0.74% USD/JPY Resistance Resistance Market Rate Support Support JPY/HKD JPY/HKD USD/CNY - CNY Underperform China s Yuan continued to trade far below the official daily guidance rate on Thursday. The People s Bank of China set a stronger official guidance rate at per dollar, up 0.07 percent from the previous fix. Markets predicted that the central bank would cut RRR as soon as this month and loosen monetary policy further in order to boost economic growth. However, strong midpoint fixed by the central bank showed it does not want to see Yuan depreciation. USD/CNY Prior Open Prior Close Prior High Prior Low % Change +0.29% CNY/HKD Previous PBOC Fixing 11-Dec Page 4

5 Economic Calendars Date Time Country Period Event Name Unit Actual Poll Prior 05-Dec 21:30 Canada Oct Imports C$ CAD B Dec 21:30 Canada Oct Exports C$ CAD B Dec 21:30 Canada Oct Trade balance C$ CAD B Dec 21:30 United States Oct International trade mm $ USD B Dec 21:30 Canada Nov Unemployment rate % Dec 21:30 Canada Nov Employment change K Dec 21:30 United States Nov Average Earnings MM % Dec 21:30 United States Nov Unemployment Rate % Dec 21:30 United States Nov Non-Farm Payrolls K Dec 5:45 New Zealand Q Manufacturing Sales % Dec 10:00 China (Mainland) Nov Trade balance USD B Dec 10:00 China (Mainland) Nov Imports yy % Dec 10:00 China (Mainland) Nov Exports yy % Dec 17:30 Eurozone Dec EuroZone-Sentix index Dec 21:15 Canada Nov House starts, annualized K Dec 23:00 United States Nov Employment trends Dec 8:30 Australia Nov NAB business confidence Dec 8:30 Australia Nov NAB Business conditions Dec 15:00 Germany Oct Trade balance, EUR, sa EUR B Dec 15:00 Germany Oct Imports mm sa % Dec 15:00 Germany Oct Exports mm sa % Dec 20:45 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 ICSC chain stores yy % Dec 20:45 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 ICSC chain stores ww % Dec 21:55 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Redbook yy % Dec 21:55 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Redbook mm % Dec 23:00 United States Oct Wholesale sales mm % Dec 23:00 United States Oct Wholesale inventories mm % Dec 5:00 New Zealand Nov REINZ HPI MM % Dec 8:30 Australia Oct Invest Housing Finance % Dec 8:30 Australia Oct Housing Finance % Dec 8:30 Australia Dec Consumer sentiment % Dec 9:30 China (Mainland) Nov CPI mm % Dec 9:30 China (Mainland) Nov CPI yy % Dec 9:30 China (Mainland) Nov PPI yy % Dec 3:00 United States Nov Federal budget,$ USD B Dec 4:00 New Zealand Dec. 11, 2014 Cen bank interest rate % Dec 8:30 Australia Nov Unemployment Rate % Dec 8:30 Australia Nov Participation Rate % Dec 8:30 Australia Nov Full Time Employment Dec 8:30 Australia Nov Employment Dec 15:00 Germany Nov HICP final yy % Dec 15:00 Germany Nov HICP final mm % Dec 15:00 Germany Nov CPI final yy % Dec 15:00 Germany Nov CPI final mm % Dec 21:30 United States Nov Retail sales mm % Dec 21:30 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Continued jobless claims M Dec 21:30 United States w/o Nov. 30, 2014 Initial jobless claims K Dec 21:30 United States Nov Export prices mm % Dec 21:30 United States Nov Import prices mm % Dec 21:30 Canada Oct New housing price index % Dec 23:00 United States Oct Business inventories mm % Dec 5:45 New Zealand Nov Manufacturing PMI Dec 13:30 China (Mainland) Nov Retail Sales yy % Dec 13:30 China (Mainland) Nov Industrial output yy % Dec 18:00 Eurozone Oct Industrial production yy % Dec 18:00 Eurozone Oct Industrial production mm % Dec 21:30 United States Nov Core PPI final demand yy % Dec 21:30 United States Nov PPI final demand yy % Dec 22:55 United States Dec U Mich Expectations Dec 22:55 United States Dec U Mich Conditions Dec 22:55 United States Dec U Mich Sentiment Page 5

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