Daily FX Focus 1/12/2017

Transcription

1 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 1/12/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance contained in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Currency conversion risk the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend JPY Support / Resistance vs USD / Market commentary Australia October building approvals YoY growth rate was higher than expected. AUDUSD AUD vs USD.757 /.7646 once touched.7594 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November Melbourne Institute Inflation index. Eurozone October unemployment rate continued to fall. EURUSD once touched EUR vs USD / levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone 3Q GDP final value. It is reported that the UK and the EU have reached an agreement on divorce bill. GBPUSD GBP vs USD / once touched levels. The upcoming release will be UK's October Industrial Production figure. New Zealand November ANZ business confidence index dropped significantly. NZDUSD NZD vs USD.6758 /.6923 once dropped to.6828 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's November CAD ANZ Commodity Price index. The OPEC and other oil producing countries decided to extend the oil reduction agreement to the end of next year, in line with market expectations. However, as USD rose, USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's vs USD / Japan October industrial production missed expectations. USDJPY once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's 3Q GDP final value. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2 days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5 day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency AUD RBA maintained its interest rates unchanged in November and said inflation would remain low for some time. Australia October building approvals YoY growth rate was higher than expected. AUDUSD once touched.7594 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's November Melbourne Institute Inflation index. 1 Dec.757 Daily change:.5% (~) Australia Q2 GDP rose 1.8% YoY, same as pervious quarter High.7668 (+) Australia Q3 CPI rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous quarter Low.7529 (+) Australia October unemployment rate arrived at 5.4%, lower than 5.5% in previous month Support*.757 ( ) Australia October Commodity Price Index arrived at 9.1%, lower than 19.4% in previous month Resistance* AUD/USD 6 month Chart AUD/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average.65 9 AUD/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

2 1/12/217 EUR ECB remained interest rates unchanged as expected in October, and announced the extension of asset purchasing program to September next year, or beyond, if necessary. Eurozone October unemployment rate continued to fall. EURUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Eurozone 3Q GDP final value. 1 Dec 1.19 Daily change:.46% (+) Germany Q3 GDP rose.8% QoQ, higher than an increase of.6% in previous quarter High (+) Eurozone November CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low (+) Germany November manufacturing PMI arrived at 62.5, higher than 6.6 in previous month Support* (+) Germany November Business Climate arrived at 117.5, higher than in previous month Resistance* EUR/USD 6 month Chart EUR/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average EUR/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3 GBP Bank of England increased interest rates by 25 points in November, and expressed concerns about the impact of Brexit on UK economy. It is reported that the UK and the EU have reached an agreement on divorce bill. GBPUSD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be UK's October Industrial Production figure. 1 Dec Daily change:.87% (~) UK Q3 GDP preliminary value rose 1.5% YoY, same as pervious quarter's advance result High ( ) UK October CPI rose.1% YoY, lower than an increase of.3% in previous month Low 1.36 (~) UK ILO September's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.3%, same as pervious month Support* (~) UK November Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2.5% YoY, same as pervious month Resistance* GBP/USD 6 month Chart GBP/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average GBP/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

3 1/12/217 NZD RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged in November, but raised inflation forecasts. New Zealand November ANZ business confidence index dropped significantly. NZDUSD once dropped to.6828 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's November ANZ Commodity Price index. 1 Dec.683 Daily change:.71% (~) New Zealand Q2 GDP rose 2.5% YoY, same as pervious quarter High.6944 (+) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.7% in previous quarter Low.6779 (+) New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 4.6%, lower than 4.8% in previous quarter Support*.6758 ( ) New Zealand October Commodity Price Index arrived at.3%, lower than.8% in previous month Resistance* NZD/USD 6 month Chart NZD/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average.6 9 NZD/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3 JPY Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged in October and lowered its inflation forecast. Japan October industrial production missed expectations. USDJPY once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's 3Q GDP final value. 1 Dec Daily change:.54% (+) Japan Q3 GDP rose 1.7% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous quarter High ( ) Japan October CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.2% YoY, lower than an increase of.7% in previous month Low (+) Japan November manufacturing PMI arrived at 53.8, higher than 52.8 in previous month Support* (~) Japan October Industrial Production rose.5% MoM, same as pervious month Resistance* USD/JPY 6 month Chart USD/JPY 1 day moving average 2 day moving average USD/JPY 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

4 1/12/217 CAD Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged as expected in October and said it would be more cautious in adjusting its monetary policy in the future. The OPEC and other oil producing countries decided to extend the oilreduction agreement to the end of next year, in line with market expectations. However, as USD rose, USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's December Central Bank Meeting result. ` 1 Dec ( ) Canada August GDP rose 3.5% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.9% in previous month Daily change:.25% ( ) Canada October CPI rose 1.4% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.6% in previous month High ( ) Canada October unemployment rate arrived at 6.3%, higher than 6.2% in previous month Low Support* ( ) Canada October Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.3, lower than 55 in previous month Resistance* USD/CAD 6 month Chart USD/CAD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average USD/CAD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

5 Important Economic Data Release Daily FX Focus 1/12/217 Analysts Previous Actual 1-Dec-17 Canada Quarterly GDP Annualize Qtrly Dec-17 Canada GDP MoM* Sep.1% -.1% -

6 1/12/217 Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Canada (BOC) Europe (ECB).. Japan (BOJ).1.1 UK (BOE).5.5 Malaysia Australia (RBA) Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 1 Dec 217 before 9: am This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment or subscribe for, or to participate in, any services. The information contained in this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. You should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness. The Bank is not responsible for any loss, damages or other consequences of any kind that you may incur or suffer as a result of or in relation to your use of or reliance on this document. The contents of this document are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified. You SHOULD NOT reproduce or further distribute the contents of this document to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. Issued by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited