Weekly FX Focus 18/12/2017

Transcription

1 Important Risk Warning Weekly FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and MYR deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and MYR deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and MYR, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend* Support / Resistance Market commentary AUD EUR.75 / / Last week, Australia November labour market data was strong, supporting AUD performance. AUDUSD once touched.7694 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's October Building Approvals. Last week, ECB kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected, and said the interest rate will maintain its current level for a considerable period of time. EURUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Germany December Business Climate Index. GBP NZD RMB CAD JPY / Last week, BoE kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected. However, as market was concerned about the progress of Brexit negotiation, GBP fell. GBPUSD once dropped to 1.3 levels. The upcoming release will be UK's 3Q GDP final value /.776 Last week, New Zealand November manufacturing PMI was higher than previous value. NZDUSD once touched.733 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's November Trade Balance / Last week, China November financial data all exceeded expectations. USDCNH once dropped to 6.2 levels. The upcoming release will be China's December Caixin Manufacturing PMI / Last week, Canada October manufacturing sales MoM growth rate significantly dropped. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's November CPI / 113. Last week, Japan December Nikkei manufacturing PMI was higher than previous value. USDJPY once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's October All Industry Activity Index. SGD / Last week, USDSGD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Singapore's December Automobile COE Open Bid figure. MYR / USDMYR drifted lower momentarily to close the week a tad softer around the mid-4.8 on last Friday. Liquidity is expected to remain thin and could get worst towards the year end. The pair opened slightly higher today around the mid-4.87 in line with broad USD strength following positive sentiment ahead of the tax bill voting in the US this week. The currency pair is expected to remain supported at 4.7 and resistance at 4.9 for today. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency

2 AUD RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the December meeting, in line with expectations. Last week, Australia November labour market data was strong, supporting AUD performance. AUDUSD once touched.7694 levels. The upcoming release will be Australia's October Building Approvals. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec Weekly change: 1.64% 1.64% High Low Support* Resistance* (+) Australia Q3 GDP rose 2.8% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter (+) Australia Q3 CPI rose.6% YoY, higher than an increase of.2% in previous quarter (~) Australia November unemployment rate arrived at 5.4%, same as pervious month (-) Australia November Commodity Price Index arrived at -3.3%, lower than 1.9% in previous month 3.52 AUD/MYR 6-month Chart AUD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average AUD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI EUR Last week, ECB kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected, and said the interest rate will maintain its current level for a considerable period of time. EURUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Germany December Business Climate Index. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec Weekly change: -.32% -.32% (+) Germany Q3 GDP rose.8% QoQ, higher than an increase of.6% in previous quarter High (+) Eurozone November CPI rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low (+) Germany December manufacturing PMI arrived at 63.3, higher than 62.5 in previous month Support* (+) Germany November Business Climate arrived at 117.5, higher than in previous month Resistance* EUR/MYR 6-month Chart EUR/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 4.55 EUR/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI

3 GBP Last week, BoE kept its interest rate unchanged in December as expected. However, as market was concerned about the progress of Brexit negotiation, GBP fell. GBPUSD once dropped to 1.3 levels. The upcoming release will be UK's 3Q GDP final value. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec Weekly change: -.74% -.74% High Low Support* Resistance* (~) UK Q3 GDP preliminary value rose 1.5% YoY, same as pervious quarter's advance result (+) UK November CPI rose.3% YoY, higher than an increase of.1% in previous month (~) UK ILO October's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.3%, same as pervious month (~) UK November Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2.5% YoY, same as pervious month GBP/MYR 6-month Chart GBP/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average GBP/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI NZD RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged in November, but raised inflation forecasts. Last week, New Zealand November manufacturing PMI was higher than previous value. NZDUSD once touched.733 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's November Trade Balance. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec (~) New Zealand Q2 GDP rose 2.5% YoY, same as pervious quarter Weekly change: 1.98% 1.98% (+) New Zealand Q3 CPI rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.7% in previous quarter High (+) New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 4.6%, lower than 4.8% in previous quarter Low (-) New Zealand November Commodity Price Index arrived at -.9%, dropped more than -.3% in previous Support* month Resistance* NZD/MYR 6-month Chart NZD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average NZD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI

4 RMB PBOC official said the next step in exchange rate reform will be less government intervention in the exchange market and to widen the CNY trading band. Last week, China November financial data all exceeded expectations. USDCNH once dropped to 6.2 levels. The upcoming release will be China's December Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec Weekly change:.3%.3% High Low Support* Resistance* (-) China Q3 GDP rose 6.8% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.9% in previous quarter (-) China November CPI rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.9% in previous month (-) China November Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 5.8, lower than 51 in previous month (-) China November industrial production rose 6.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 6.2% in previous month RMB/MYR 6-month Chart CNH/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.5 RMB/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI CAD Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 1% in the December meeting as expected, but emphasized it would continue to cautiously adjust its monetary policy. Last week, Canada October manufacturing sales MoM growth rate significantly dropped. USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's November CPI. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec (-) Canada September GDP rose 3.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.5% in previous month Weekly change: -.35% -.35% (-) Canada October CPI rose 1.4% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.6% in previous month High (+) Canada November unemployment rate arrived at 5.9%, lower than 6.3% in previous month Low (+) Canada November Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.4, higher than 54.3 in previous month Support* Resistance* CAD/MYR 6-month Chart CAD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average CAD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI

5 JPY Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged in October and lowered its inflation forecast. Last week, Japan December Nikkei manufacturing PMI was higher than previous value. USDJPY once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's October All Industry Activity Index. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec Weekly change: -.61% -.61% High Low Support* Resistance* (+) Japan Q3 GDP rose 2.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.6% in previous quarter (-) Japan October CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.2% YoY, lower than an increase of.7% in previous month (+) Japan December manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.2, higher than 53.6 in previous month (~) Japan October Industrial Production rose.5% MoM, same as pervious month 28. JPY/MYR 6-month Chart JPY/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average JPY/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in October that it would maintain monetary policy unchanged and noted that Singapore's economic growth next year should be robust, but may be slower than this year. Last week, USDSGD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Singapore's December Automobile COE Open Bid figure. Tehnical Analysis vs MYR 18-Dec (+) Singapore Q3 GDP final value rose 5.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.9% in previous quarter's Weekly change:.6%.6% advance result High (~) Singapore October CPI rose.4% YoY, same as pervious month Low (~) Singapore Q3 unemployment rate arrived at 2.2%, same as pervious quarter Support* (+) Singapore October Non Oil Domestic Exports rose 2.9% YoY, higher than a decrease of 1.1% in previous Resistance* month SGD/MYR 6-month Chart SGD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 2.92 SGD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI

6 MYR USDMYR drifted lower momentarily to close the week a tad softer around the mid-4.8 on last Friday. Liquidity is expected to remain thin and could get worst towards the year end. The pair opened slightly higher today around the mid-4.87 in line with broad USD strength following positive sentiment ahead of the tax bill voting in the US this week. The currency pair is expected to remain supported at 4.7 and resistance at 4.9 for today. Tehnical Analysis 18-Dec 4.78 Weekly change: -.22% High Low 4.45 Support* (-) US Industrial Production MoM (Nov).2%, expected.3%, prior.9% (revised 1.2%) (-) US Empire Manufacturing (Dec) 18., expected 18.7, prior 19.4 (-) US Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 9) 225k, expected 236k, prior 236k (+) US Retail Sales Advance MOM (Nov).8%, expected.3%, prior.2% (revised.5%) (-) MY Industrial Production YoY (Oct) 3.4%, expected 4.1%, prior 4.7% Resistance* USD/MYR 6-month Chart USD/MYR 1-day moving average 2-day moving average USD/MYR 6-month 7-day RSI \

7 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of December 18, 217 Analysts Consensus Previous Actual United States 18-Dec-17 NAHB Housing Market Index Dec Dec-17 Housing Starts* Nov 1248K 12K - 2-Dec-17 Existing Home Sales* Nov 5.52M 5.48M - 2-Dec-17 MBA Mortgage Applications* Weekly -2.% - 21-Dec-17 GDP QoQ (Annualised)* Qtrly 3.% 3.% - 21-Dec-17 GDP Price Index Qtrly 2.1% 2.1% - 21-Dec-17 PCE Deflator QoQ Qtrly 1.4% 1.4% 21-Dec-17 Personal Consumption Qtrly 2.% 2.% - 21-Dec-17 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 233K 225K - 21-Dec-17 Continuing Claims Weekly 1886K - 21-Dec-17 Leading Indicators* Nov.4% 1.2% - 21-Dec-17 Philidelphia Fed Dec Dec-17 U. of Michigan Confidence* Jan Dec-17 Durable Goods Orders* Nov 2.1% -.8% - 22-Dec-17 Durables Ex Transportation Nov.5%.% - 22-Dec-17 New Home Sales* Nov 65.5K 685K - 22-Dec-17 New Home Sales* Nov 65.5K 685K - 22-Dec-17 Personal Spending* Nov.5%.% - 22-Dec-17 Personal Income* Nov.4%.4% - Regional 18-Dec-17 Australia New Motro Vehicle Sales YoY Oct -.4% - 18-Dec-17 Hong Kong Unemployment Rate SA Nov 3.1% 3% - 2-Dec-17 New Zealand Trade Balance* Nov -55M M - 2-Dec-17 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) Nov 2.% - 2-Dec-17 New Zealand Imports Nov 5.1M M - 21-Dec-17 New Zealand GDP YoY Qtrly 2.4% 2.5% - 21-Dec-17 Hong Kon CPI Composite Index (YoY) Nov 1.4% 1.5% - G7 Countries 18-Dec-17 Japan Merchands Trade Balance Total Nov -4B B - 19-Dec-17 Germany Germany IFO - Business Climate* Dec Dec-17 Germany IFO - Expectations* Dec Dec-17 Germany IFO - Current Assessment Dec Dec-17 Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) Oct.% -.5% - 21-Dec-17 Canada Consumer Price Index YoY* Nov 2% 1.4% - 21-Dec-17 Canada Retail Sales MoM Oct.4%.1% - 21-Dec-17 Canada Bank ocanada CPU Core YoY Nov.% - 21-Dec-17 France Business Confidence Indicator Dec Dec-17 Canada GDP MoM* Oct.1%.2% - 22-Dec-17 France GDP (QoQ) Qtrly.5%.5% - 22-Dec-17 France GDP (YoY) Qtrly 2.2% 2.2% - 22-Dec-17 Italy Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) Oct -3.% - 22-Dec-17 Italy Industrial Order n.s.a. Oct 4.5% - 22-Dec-17 UK GDP (QoQ)* Qtrly.4%.4% - 22-Dec-17 UK GDP (YoY)* Qtrly 1.5% 1.5% -

8 Currency Market Movements Table Night Desk 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Months Current High Low High Low High Low High Low AUD/MYR EUR/MYR GBP/MYR MYR/JPY NZD/MYR SGD/MYR USD/MYR AUD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD NZD/USD USD/JPY AUD/GBP AUD/NZD AUD/SGD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD EUR/GBP GBP/SGD GBP/NZD AUD/HKD GBP/HKD USD/CAD CAD/MYR GBP/AUD USD/SGD EUR/SGD XAU/MYR XAU/USD XAU/GBP XAU/AUD XAU/EUR AUD/CAD AUD/JPY CAD/JPY NZD/JPY SGD/JPY AUD/CNY GBP/CNY NZD/CNY MYR/CNY Updated as of 18 December 217 8:34:41 AM * Night Desk Session from 5pm 5am Hong Kong Time. Source: Bloomberg Key Currency Performance against MYR Current level vs MYR 1-week Performance 3-month Performance 6-month Performance NZD % -7.4% -7.99% CAD % -7.% -1.36% GBP % -4.3%.3% SGD 3.2.% -2.8% -1.95% AUD % -7.11% -3.67% CNY.62.22% -3.% -1.66% THB % -.97% -.49% CHF % -5.4% -6.59% EUR % -4.62%.14% JPY % -3.53% -5.86% USD % -2.67% -4.85% *source : REUTERS closing bid price, as at 15-Dec-217

9 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Feb-18 Canada (BOC) Jan-18 Europe (ECB).. 25-Jan-18 Japan (BOJ) Dec-17 UK (BOE) Feb-18 Malaysia Jan-18 Australia (RBA) Feb-18 Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Feb-18 Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated before 1. am The information in this document has been obtained from reports (relevant reports) issued or compiled by various entities within the HSBC Group (the HSBC Group ) Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. Disclaimer This document is issued by HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad ( V) (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgment, which is subject to change without notice. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for, or advice that you should enter into, the purchase or sale of any security, commodity or other investment product or investment agreement, or any other contract, agreement or structure whatsoever and is intended for institutional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Unless governing law permits otherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investment mentioned in this document. This document, which is not for public circulation, must not be copied, transferred or the content disclosed, to any third party and is not intended for use by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's professional advisers for the purposes of advising the intended recipient hereon. Copyright. HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad ( V) 215. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of HSBC Bank Malaysia Berhad.