Daily FX Focus 11/7/2017

Transcription

1 Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 11/7/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become valueless and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance contained in this document is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Currency conversion risk the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. Currency Current Trend AUD Support / Resistance Market commentary vs USD.7521 /.771 AUDUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Australia's July Consumer Confidence Index. Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index was slightly lower than previous value EUR vs USD / EURUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Germany June CPI final value. Prior to UK May employment data, GBP weakened. GBPUSD once dropped to GBP vs USD / levels. The upcoming release will be UK's June Jobless Claims Change. New Zealand June credit card retail sales was lower than previous value. NZDUSD once NZD vs USD.7195 /.7346 dropped to.726 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's June Food Prices Index. Prior to Bank of Canada rate decision meeting, USDCAD once touched levels. The CAD vs USD / upcoming release will be Canada's July Central Bank Meeting result. JPY vs USD / Japan May core machinery orders grew.6% YoY, much lower than previous and expected values. USDJPY once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's June PPI. * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2 days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5 day moving average, can be used if needed. Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the base currency Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the base currency AUD Former Australian central bank board member said the central bank could raise interest rates eight times in the next two years. AUDUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Australia's July Consumer Confidence Index. 11 Jul.761 Daily change:.2% ( ) Australia Q1 GDP rose 1.7% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.4% in previous quarter High.7712 (~) Australia Q1 CPI rose.5% YoY, same as pervious quarter Low.7532 (+) Australia May unemployment rate arrived at 5.5%, lower than 5.7% in previous month Support*.7521 ( ) Australia June Commodity Price Index arrived at 25%, lower than 3.1% in previous month Resistance* AUD/USD 6 month Chart AUD/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average.65 9 AUD/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

2 11/7/217 EUR ECB remained monetary policy unchanged in June, the central bank also lowered inflation forecast of Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index was slightly lower than previous value. EURUSD traded within the range of The upcoming release will be Germany June CPI final value. 11 Jul 1.14 Daily change:.5% (+) Germany Q1 GDP rose.6% QoQ, higher than an increase of.4% in previous quarter High ( ) Eurozone June CPI rose 1.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low (+) Germany June manufacturing PMI arrived at 59.6, higher than 59.5 in previous month Support* (+) Germany June Business Climate arrived at 115.1, higher than in previous month Resistance* EUR/USD 6 month Chart EUR/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average EUR/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3 GBP Bank of England Governor Carney said the central bank will discuss rate hikes in coming months. Prior to UK May employment data, GBP weakened. GBPUSD once dropped to levels. The upcoming release will be UK's June Jobless Claims Change. 11 Jul Daily change:.9% (+) UK Q1 GDP final value rose 2% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter's preliminary value High 1.33 ( ) UK May CPI rose.3% YoY, lower than an increase of.5% in previous month Low (~) UK ILO April's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.6%, same as pervious month Support* (+) UK June Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 3.1% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.1% in previous month Resistance* GBP/USD 6 month Chart GBP/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average GBP/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

3 11/7/217 NZD RBNZ maintained interest rates unchanged at record low of 1.75%. The after meeting announcement showed room for adjustment in future policy. New Zealand June credit card retail sales was lower than previous value. NZDUSD once dropped to.726 levels. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's June Food Prices Index. 11 Jul.727 Daily change:.16% ( ) New Zealand Q1 GDP rose 2.5% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.7% in previous quarter High.7346 (+) New Zealand Q1 CPI rose 2.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.3% in previous quarter Low.7195 (+) New Zealand Q1 unemployment rate arrived at 4.9%, lower than 5.2% in previous quarter Support*.7195 ( ) New Zealand June Commodity Price Index arrived at 2.1%, lower than 3.2% in previous month Resistance* NZD/USD 6 month Chart NZD/USD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average.6 9 NZD/USD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3 JPY BOJ 7: 2 voted to remain the monetary policy in June unchanged, and that inflation is still in a weak stage. Japan May core machinery orders grew.6% YoY, much lower than previous and expected values. USDJPY once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's June PPI. 11 Jul Daily change:.15% ( ) Japan Q1 GDP rose 1.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.6% in previous quarter High (~) Japan May CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose.4% YoY, same as pervious month Low ( ) Japan June manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.4, lower than 53.1 in previous month Support* (~) Japan May Industrial Production fell 3.3% MoM, same as pervious month Resistance* USD/JPY 6 month Chart USD/JPY 1 day moving average 2 day moving average USD/JPY 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

4 11/7/217 CAD BOC governor said that the rate cut in 215 is effective and the central bank is studying whether it still needs to maintain a very low interest rate. Prior to Bank of Canada rate decision meeting, USDCAD once touched levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's July Central Bank Meeting result. 11 Jul (+) Canada April GDP rose 3.3% YoY, higher than an increase of 3.2% in previous month Daily change:.14% ( ) Canada May CPI rose 1.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.6% in previous month High (+) Canada June unemployment rate arrived at 6.5%, lower than 6.6% in previous month Low Support* ( ) Canada June Manufacturing PMI arrived at 54.7, lower than 55.1 in previous month Resistance* USD/CAD 6 month Chart USD/CAD 1 day moving average 2 day moving average ` USD/CAD 6 month 7 day RSI 6 3

5 Important Economic Data Release Daily FX Focus 11/7/217 Analysts Previous Actual 14-Jul-17 Japan Capacity Utilization (MoM) May 4.31% -

6 11/7/217 Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund Canada (BOC).5.5 Europe (ECB).. Japan (BOJ).1.1 UK (BOE) Malaysia Australia (RBA) Taiwan New Zealand (RBNZ) Indonesia Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 11 Jul 217 before 9: am This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any investment or subscribe for, or to participate in, any services. The information contained in this document has not been reviewed in the light of your personal financial circumstances. You should carefully consider whether any investment views and investment products are appropriate in view of your investment experience, objectives, financial resources and relevant circumstances. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, the Bank makes no guarantee, representation or warranty to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness. The Bank is not responsible for any loss, damages or other consequences of any kind that you may incur or suffer as a result of or in relation to your use of or reliance on this document. The contents of this document are subject to change without notice. Some of the information in this document is derived from third party sources as specified at the relevant places where such information is set out. The Bank believes such information to be reliable but it has not independently verified. You SHOULD NOT reproduce or further distribute the contents of this document to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. Issued by HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited