Daily FX Focus 28-Jan-2014

Transcription

1 Currency This Week 12 MONTHS Comment AUD/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH EUR/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH GBP/USD NEUTRAL BEARISH NZD/USD BULLISH BULLISH USD/RMB BEARISH NEUTRAL USD/CAD BULLISH NEUTRAL USD/JPY NEUTRAL BEARISH Market investing sentiment stabilized and AUD rebounded to above 0.87 levels. AUD/USD near term trading range was around , investors who need to buy AUD may consider levels, and other may consider selling for profit around ECB governor said the low interest rate will remain for a long period of time, plus Germany Business Climate Index posted better than expected figures and EUR was consolidating at highs. Near term trading range was around , investors may consider selling EUR for profit above 1.37 or buying on dips around BoE governor said UK economy still needs ultra-low policies to stimulate. GBP/USD near term trading range was around ; investors who need GBP may consider buying on dips around RBNZ will hold meetings this week to discuss interest rates. Market expects the opportunity for RBNZ to raise interest rates was more than half. NZD was stabilizing at lows and was hovering around in the near term. Investors may consider buying NZD on dips around China State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised QFII quota and it was beneficial to the Chinese investment market. Investors may consider using the opportunity and buying RMB in batches. Canada Finance Minister said CAD was pushed by market forces; USD/CAD was hovering at in the near term. Investors who need CAD may consider using this opportunity and buying on dips around Japan trade deficit hit new highs plus US treasury yields went back up pushed USD/JPY back up. USD/JPY was hovering at in the near term. Investors may consider range trading. USD/CHF NEUTRAL BULLISH USD/SGD NEUTRAL BEARISH Emerging market currencies stabilized and SGD also stabilized. USD/SGD near term trading range was around Investors may consider range trading. AUD NEUTRAL Market investing sentiment stabilized and AUD rebounded to above 0.87 levels. AUD/USD near term trading range was around , investors who need to buy AUD may consider levels, 28-Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.44% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) Australia Q4 CPI rose 2.7% YoY, better than market expectations (-) Australia Dec employment change -23k, lower than expected (-) Australia Q3 GDP at 2.3% yoy, lower than expected (~) RBA kept interest rate at 2.50% in Dec as expected AUD/SGD 6-month

2 EUR NEUTRAL ECB governor said the low interest rate will remain for a long period of time, plus Germany Business Climate Index posted better than expected figures and EUR was consolidating at highs. Near term trading range was 28-Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.21% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) German December unemployment change reduced 15K, better than market expectations (~) Eurozone Dec CPI yoy 0.8% as market expected (-) Eurozone Nov Industrial Production 0.2%, less than expected (~) ECB kept rate unchanged at 0.25% in Jan EUR/SGD 6-month GBP NEUTRAL BoE governor said UK economy still needs ultra-low policies to stimulate. GBP/USD near term trading range was around ; investors who need GBP may consider buying on dips around Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.45% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) UK Dec unemployment rate 7.1%, lower than expected (+)UK Dec retail sales increased 5.3% yoy, higher than expected (~) UK Dec consumer price index (yoy) 2.1% as expected (~) BOE kept interest rate and asset purchase target unchanged in Jan GBP/SGD 6-month NZD BULLISH RBNZ will hold meetings this week to discuss interest rates. Market expects the opportunity for RBNZ to raise interest rates was more than half. NZD was stabilizing at lows and was hovering around in the 28-Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: 0.05% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) New Zealand Q3 GDP increased 3.5% yoy, higher than expected (~) RBNZ kept rate unchanged at 2.5% in Dec (+) New Zealand Q3 employment increased 1.2% qoq, higher than market expectations (+) New Zealand Sep trade balance at -199 mio, higher than expected NZD/SGD 6-month

3 RMB BULLISH China State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised QFII quota and it was beneficial to the Chinese investment market. Investors may consider using the opportunity and buying RMB in batches. 28-Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.19% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) China 4Q GDP at 7.7% yoy, higher than market expectations (+) China Nov trade balance at $33.8 B, higher than market expectations (-) China Dec HSBC Manufacturing PMI at 50.5, lower than market expectations (-) China Jan HSBC manufacturing PMI 49.6, worse than market expectations RMB/SGD 6-month CAD BEARISH Canada Finance Minister said CAD was pushed by market forces; USD/CAD was hovering at in the near term. Investors who need CAD may consider using this opportunity and buying on dips around Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.43% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (~) BOC kept rate unchanged at 1.0% in Dec (+) Canada Oct GDP increased 2.7% yoy, higher than market expectations (+) Canada Dec employment figures raised by 21.6k, higher than expected (-) Canada Dec CPI at 1.2% yoy, worse than market expectations 1.15 JPY NEUTRAL Japan trade deficit hit new highs plus US treasury yields went back up pushed USD/JPY back up. USD/JPY was hovering at in the near term. Investors may consider range trading. 28-Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.42% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (~) BOJ kept rate unchanged in Dec (~) Japan Dec bank lending 2.4%, lower than expected (-) Japan Nov trade deficit increased to 1290bn yen (-) Japan Q3 GDP rose1.1% YoY,lower than expected CAD/SGD 6-month 1.40 JPY/SGD 6-month 1.00

4 CHF NEUTRAL 28-Jan vs SGD vs USD Daily change: -0.38% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (-) Switzerland Nov trade balance at 2.11bn, worse than expected (-) Switzerland Oct consumer price index fell by 0.3%yoy, bigger than expected (+) Switzerland Sep trade balance at 2.49 billion, higher than expected (~) SNB kept interest rates unchanged in Dec CHF/SGD 6-month SGD NEUTRAL Emerging market currencies stabilized and SGD also stabilized. USD/SGD near term trading range was around Investors may consider range trading. 28-Jan vs USD Daily change: -0.17% Support*: vs USD Resistance*: vs USD (+) Singapore Q3 GDP up 5.1% yoy, higher than market expectations (+) Singapore Q3 unemployment rate fell to 1.8% (-) Singapore Sep CPI rose 1.6% yoy, lower than market expectations (+) MAS will continue to target a modest and gradual appreciation of its currency USD/SGD 6-month 1.30

5 HSBC forecasts 09-Dec-13 Current rate Q Q Q Q Q North America US Canada Asia-pacific Japan Australia New Zealand Western Europe EMU UK *Support Levels are normally defined as where market participants see good value and start to push prices higher again. *Resistance Levels are normally regarded as a ceiling, as the price levels prevent the market from moving prices upward. Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided. Customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. ^ Time deposit rates are for reference only and quoted as of RMB and exchange rate offers are available at any HSBC branches and through 24-hour manned phonebanking services only. Terms and Conditions apply. Risk Disclosure: Currency conversion risk the value of your RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favorable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions. This document is issued by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC). The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified. HSBC makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature nor is any responsibility of any kind accepted with respect to the completeness or accuracy of any information, projection, representation or warranty (expressed or implied) in, or omission from, this document. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this document. Any examples given are for the purposes of illustration only. The opinions in this document constitute our present judgement, which is subject to change without notice. The document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. Copyright. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited.