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1 05-JULY-2017 FROM CEO'S DESK Overnight there has been some cool off in USD strength across the board ahead of the crucial June FOMC policy meeting minutes (meet where Fed hiked rates by 25bps and outlined plan for balance sheet trimming). US May Durable goods data and Eurozone May Retail sales other data due today. Asian currencies are trading stronger against USD. Asian stocks mixed. Shanghai Composite and Nikkei lower. US 10yr has retraced to 2.32% and DXY to CNY fix marginally higher at FPI sold net USD 228 mn in debt and USD 138mn in equity on Monday. Today, USDINR is likely to trade in the range of band. CURRENCY USDINR EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY COMMENTS Today, USD/INR opens lower as dollar broadly flat to lower ahead of Fed minutes, due later today in NY session. However, downside is likely to remain limited upto levels. The EUR/USD pair jumped back on the bid in the Asian trades after 3 days of fall, as the USD recovery stalled amid repositioning ahead of the FOMC minutes due later today. Sterling extended losses for a second consecutive day on Tuesday after a survey of Britain's construction sector showed growth cooling in June. Market awaits UK services PMI The pairextends losses for the second straight session, as the Yen continues to remain in safe haven demand on rising geo-political tensions, triggered by North Korea s missile launch INTRADAY OUTLOOK BULLISH BULLISH BULLISH BEARISH COMMODITIES/DI GOLD SILVER WTI CRUDE DOLLAR INDEX INFLOWS ( ) EQUITY DEBT * Figures are in Rs. Crores LAST CHANGE % CHANGE REGION GLOBAL INDICES LAST CHANGE % CHANGE $1, % HANG SENG % $ % ASIA KOSPI % $ % NIKKEI % % SENSEX % INDIA NIFTY % PURCHASE SELL NET CAC % EUROPEAN DAX % FTSE % US DOW % NASDAQ %
2 COUNTRY TIME MAJOR GLOBAL EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT ON FX 4/7/2017 AUD 7:00 AM RETAIL SALES 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% BULLISH AUD 10:00 AM CASH RATE 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% GBP 2:00 PM CONSTRUCTION PMI /7/2017 GBP 2:00 PM SERVICES PMI USD 11:30 PM FOMC MEETING MINUTES CENTRAL BANKS INTEREST RATES LIBOR RATES ON 1M 3M 6M 1Y CENTRAL BANK RATES NEXT MEETING USD RBI 6.25% August 2, 2017 EUR FED 1.25% July 26, 2017 GBP ECB 0.00% July 20, 2017 JPY BOE BOJ RBA 0.25% -0.10% 1.50% July 13, 2017 July 20, 2017 July 4, 2017 INDIA'S KEY RATES CARRY 10 YEAR BOND YIELD LAST AGAINST USD REPO RATE 6.25% REVERSE REPO 6.00% TRADE INFLATION 2.18% CRR 4.00% INDIA 6.54% INR 4.75% GDP (Q/Q) 6.10% SLR 20.00% US 2.32% EUR 1.25% IIP 3.10% GBP 1.00% JPY -1.35% MONTH END FORWARD PREMIUM- IN RUPEES (BID RATE) MONTH 1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 10Y USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR
3 OTHER MAJOR NEWS * North Korea says its ICBM can carry nuclear warhead, U.S. calls for global action * U.K. construction PMI pulls back from 17-month high in June * Australian dollar falls following neutral RBA message CHART OF THE DAY - AUDUSD SPOT RATE TECHNICAL OBSERVATION After taking resistance above 0.77 in the last week, AUDUSD pair retraced back below in just 3 days. In the near term, the pair is expected to fall further upto levels. On the higher side, is likely to act as crucial resistance levels. INTRADAY RANGE [BEARISH BIAS] CURRENCY 3 MONTHS OUTLOOK 6 MONTHS OUTLOOK RANGE OUTLOOK RANGE OUTLOOK $ INDEX NEUTRAL BULLISH EURUSD NEUTRAL BEARISH GBPUSD NEUTRAL BEARISH USDJPY BULLISH BULLISH AUDUSD BEARISH BEARISH USDCAD BEARISH BULLISH
4 CURRENCY DAILY TECHNICAL CHART
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Market Recap U.S. stocks fell: The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% as concern over slowing growth in China and other developing nations amid a deepening commodities selloff. Emerging-market stocks dropped: The
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Weekly Market Reflection 20 th August to 24 th August 2018 Market Outlook USDINR On Thurday, against the US dollar, the Indian Rupee plunged to a record low of 70.4925 with market participants sentiments
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