Currency Daily

Transcription

1 Currency Daily Market commentary Indian rupee has continued to trade firm for the third-straight session, gaining another 1paise to close at a fresh 2-month high of against the U.S. dollar ahead of the GDP data. Heavy unwinding of dollar position by some foreign banks and corporates predominantly supported the local unit, which has appreciated by a whopping 39paise in the last 3-days. In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell back against the pound to close at from per pound, but remained firm against the Japanese yen to close at per 1 yens as compared to in the previous session. In forward market, premium for dollar continued its slide due to persistent receiving from exporters. The benchmark 6-month premium payable in April softened to paise from paise previously, while the far forward October 218 contract closed steady at paise. Domestic equities pared earlier gains to close lower yesterday, as sentiment was cautious following North Korea s missile test, while investors await key macro-economic data due on Thursday. The dollar traded steadily against a basket of major currencies, as upbeat economic data and signs of progress on tax reform lifted sentiment but a surge in sterling weighed on upside momentum. U.S. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.3% annual rate in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate of GDP, beating a previous estimate of 3%. Federal chair Janet Yellen testified on the economic outlook before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. She reaffirmed the central bank s stance on monetary policy of gradual rate hikes amid concerns that the economy would overheat. Yellen's somewhat hawkish comments lifted Treasury yields, supporting an uptick in the dollar. U.K's pound rallied to a 2-month high against the greenback on reports of a UK-EU agreement on the so-called Brexit divorce bill. FOREX synopsis Futures High Low Close %Chg OI %Chg Spot Close Prev close %Chg NSE Rupee (.14) INR-Dollar (Dec) (.17). Euro INR-Dollar (Jan) (.17). British Pound Japanese Yen INR-Euro (Dec) (.53). Australian($) (.33) INR-Euro (Jan) (.53). Swiss Franc Canadian($) INR-Pound (Dec) (.47). Dollar Index (.11) INR-Pound (Jan) (.41). Global Equities INR-Yen (Dec) (.2). Jankets Close Prev close %Chg INR-Yen (Jan) (.19). Asia Sensex 33, , (.5) Forward Rates Nifty 1, ,37.25 (.9) Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg Nikkie 22, , month (.8) Hang Seng 29, ,68.85 (.19) 3-month (.8) Shanghai 3, , RBI Reference rate Rupee per Close Prev close %Chg America Straits Times 3, , (.1) Dollar (.2) Dow Jones 23, , Euro (.49) Nasdaq 6, , (1.27) Pound Yen (.33) Europe CAC 5, , Commodities DAX 13, , Close Prev close %Chg FTSE 7, ,46.65 (.9) Spot Gold 29, ,347. (.42) Spot Silver 37, ,3. (3.44) FII's Flow Equity (in Rs cr.) Debt (in Rs cr.) Net Crude oil 3,678. 3,678.. As on Nov (93.3) Copper (3.35) As on Nov (33.3) 751.1

2 Pivot Levels Futures R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 INR-Dollar (Dec) INR-Dollar (Jan) INR-Euro (Dec) INR-Euro (Jan) INR-Pound (Dec) INR-Pound (Jan) INR-Yen (Dec) INR-Yen (Jan) Spot R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Indian Rupee Euro British Pound Japanese Yen Australian($) Canadian($) Swiss Franc Dollar Index A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the currency. Technical Alerts USD-INR (Sept. Futures) The currency pair holds support at and next at 64., while on the upside resistance is seen at Indian Rupee s premium in Futures market Contract Spot Futures Premium 1-month month month month month month

3 USD-INR options OI analysis Near month i.e. Dec. 3 Call OI Put OI 25 Call OI chg. Put OI chg Near +1 i.e. Jan Call OI Put OI 2 Call OI chg. Put OI chg Call OI additions Call OI unwinding Put OI additions Put OI unwinding 63 call, calls, calls, calls call, call, calls. 63 put, puts, puts puts. Outlook: The currency pair may see resistance around , while on the downside support is seen at and next at 64..

4 Economic calendar Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 27-Nov USD New Home Sales (m-o-m) 2:3 6.2% -6.3% 14.2% 28-Nov EUR OECD Economic Outlook 15:3 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence 17: USD Advance Goods Trade Balance 19: -$68.3b -$65.1b -$64.1b USD Wholesale Inventories (m-o-m) 19:.4%.4%.1% USD House Price Index (m-o-m) 19:3.3%.5%.8% USD House Price Purchase Index (q-o-q) 19:3 1.4% 1.7% USD S&P CoreLogic CS 2-City (m-o-m) SA 19:3.52%.3%.44% USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-2 (y-o-y) 19:3 6.19% 6.% 5.82% USD S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (y-o-y) 19:3 6.15% 5.95% USD Consumer Confidence Index 2: USD Conf. Board Present Situation 2: Nov EUR French Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y) 13:15 2.2% 2.2% Bundesbank presents 217 Financial Stability EUR Report 13:3 GBP Net Consumer Credit 15: 1.415b 1.5b 1.48b GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 15: 3.4b 3.7b 3.8b GBP Mortgage Approvals 15: 64.6k 65.k 66.1k EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence 15: EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence 15: EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 15: EUR German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) 18:3.3%.3%.% EUR German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 18:3 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (q-o-q) 19: 3.3% 3.2% 3.% USD Personal Consumption 19: 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 19: 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% USD Core PCE (q-o-q) 19: 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% Yellen Appears before Joint Economic USD Committee of Congress 2:3 USD Pending Home Sales (y-o-y) 2:3 1.2% -5.7% USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 21: -3429k -2536k -1855k USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 21: -2914k -1827k USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 21: 3627k 967k 44k USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 21: 2747k 156k 269k 3-Nov JPY Industrial Production (y-o-y) 5:2 5.9% 7.2% 2.6% GBP GfK Consumer Confidence 5: CNY Manufacturing PMI 6: CNY Non-manufacturing PMI 6: EUR German Unemployment Change ('s) 14:25-1k -11k EUR German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. 14:25 5.6% 5.6% EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 15:3 8.9% 8.9% EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y-o-y) 15:3 1.6% 1.4% EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (y-o-y) 15:3 1.%.9% USD Initial Jobless Claims 19: 24k 239k USD Continuing Claims 19: 194k USD Personal Income 19:.3%.4% USD Personal Spending 19:.3% 1.% USD Real Personal Spending 19:.2%.6% USD PCE Core (m-o-m) 19:.2%.1% USD PCE Core (y-o-y) 19: 1.4% 1.3% USD Chicago Purchasing Manager 2: USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 21: Dec JPY Jobless Rate 5: 2.8% 2.8% JPY National Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) 5:.2%.7%

5 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (y-o-y) 5:.8%.7% JPY Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (y-o-y) 5:.2%.2% JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing 6: 53.8 CNY Caixin China PMI Mfg. 7: EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 14: EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (y-o-y) 14:3 1.8% 1.8% EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 14: GBP Markit UK PMI Manufacturing s.a. 15: USD ISM Manufacturing 2: USD ISM Prices Paid 2: USD ISM Employment 2: USD Construction Spending (m-o-m) 2:3.5%.3% USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 23:3 923.

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