Global Market Overview

Transcription

1 Tuesday 5 th Dec 2017 Global Market Overview Asian market trading mixed after NASDAQ hit a five-week low, with optimism about a Republican plan to slash corporate taxes fuelling gains in banks stocks. The greenback held on to yesterday s levels against basket of currencies on Tuesday, with its rise made at the week's start slowing as the market awaited the next phase of the U.S. tax reform saga for cues. Oil prices rose in early Asian trade buoyed by expectations of a drop in U.S crude stockpiles. Indian rupee is expected to open near 64.35against previous closing of and likely to trade within a range of with equities market driving the pair for the day Markets Indices Last Close Previous Close % CHANGE Currencies Opening Close at 05:00 PM % CHANGE U.S.A S&P USDINR-S Dow Jones DXY NASDAQ EURUSD E.U ASIA DAX GBPUSD FTSE USDJPY CAC USDCNY STOXX FPI FLOWS Current Previous NIKKEI Equity SHANGHAI Debt KOSPI Total HANG SENG SENSEX US 10Y NIFTY IRF

2 USDINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook: INR closed at against USD in last trading session with the intraday trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side. Domestic currency traded in green, continuing its recent rally against USD ahead of Nikkei Services PMI (November) and RBI policy meet on 6th December. The Services PMI figures are expected to show positive surprise with markets expecting a modest spike from the previous update of RBI is expected to hold rates in the upcoming bimonthly policy review citing factors ranging from inflation to rising crude oil prices to Federal Reserve s rate cut. Market participants will also be placing their bets today s by keeping the upcoming ISM Non Manufacturing PMI of US economy in consideration. According to forecast the expectations are that Non Manufacturing activity will contract from previous update and figures will show a modest slide to USDINR is expected to trade sideways bearish in todasy trading session. Technical Outlook: This is the daily chart of USDINR, the pair has traded in the range of on the higher side and on the lower side and traded with a sidewise bias during the day, the pair has been trading with a lower lows and respecting the support of levels while resistance is coming at levels so with MACD remaining on the negative side and prices trading below the medium term moving averages expects supply at higher levels Intraday Bias Intraday Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways Range (Futures) S S S R R

3 EURINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook Euro closed at INR in previous trading session with the trading range of on the higher side and on lower side. However, it closed at against U.S Dollar with trading range of on the higher side and on lower side in NDF markets. Euro edged up against domestic currency unit in last trading session riding on positive Spanish Unemployment change and PPI figures, both out beating median market forecasts. German and Eurozone s Final services PMI as well as Eurozone s retail sales numbers will be the key events to be watched out for in today s trading session. Indian Services PMI data will also be driving the currency pair in today s trading session but most important theme playing in markets is German Electoral Scenario. EURINR is expected to trade sideways to bullish in today s trading session. Technical Outlook This is the daily chart of EURUSD pair, the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and traded with a neutral bias during the day the pair made a hammer kind of pattern near the support of signifying demand at said levels and with prices trading above the 50 & 20DMA expects the [air to drift higher so traders can utilize buy on dips strategy for the day Intraday Bias Intraday Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways BUY EURUSD TGT SL BUY EURINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 R2 R3 (Futures)

4 GBPINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook GBP closed at INR in yesterday s trading session with the trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side domestically whereas it closed at with the trading range of on the higher side and on the lower side against US dollar in NDF markets. Pound edged down in last trading session weighed down by broad based strength in domestic unit against all currency majors ahead of RBI policy meet on 6th December. Pound recently witnessed strong upsurge after expectations of near done Brexit deal mounted investor sentiment but later on gave up those gains after Northern Ireland s hardline unionists rejected Theresa May s agreement preventing Northern Ireland from leaving European Union on the same terms as rest of the UK. GBPINR is expected to trade bearish in today s trading session. Technical Outlook This is the daily chart of GBPUSD pair the pair traded in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and had a trending session later during the day, the pair was trading above the and shoot higher in European session, the pair has been trading above the short term moving averages and likely to see some support at 1.34 while supply coming near 1.35 with MACD remaining on the buy side expects demand at lower levels Intraday Bias Bullish (Futures) Intraday Strategy BUY GBPUSD TGT SL Intraday Range (SPOT) BUY GBPINR FUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 R2 R

5 JPYINR Intraday Outlook Fundamental Outlook Japanese Yen closed at INR per 100 Yen in previous trading session, trading in the range of on the higher side and on lower side. However, it closed at against U.S Dollar with trading range of on the higher side and on lower side in international markets. Japanese Yen dipped against US dollar and INR owing to strong upsurge in USDJPY pair post Senate approval of Republicans tax bill on early Saturday morning. The international weakness in Japanese Yen was also evident with domestic pair. Most of the movement in Yen is expected to be dollar driven in today s trading session with market participants keenly watching the macroeconomic update of PMI and trade balance of United States as well as development in United States political Scenario. JPYINR is expected to trade sideways to bullish in todays trading session. Technical Outlook This is the dally chart of USDJPY pair, the pair was trading in a range of on the higher side and on the lower side, and traded volatile, the pair found resistance at higher levels and made a shooting star kind of pattern and reversed making a bearish wick while the pair is trading near the support of 50DMA placed at with MACD likely to give a positive crossover and prices making a bearish candle expects volatility for the day Intraday Bias Intraday Strategy Intraday Range (SPOT) Sideways SELL USDJPY TGT SL BUY JPYINRFUT TGT SL S3 S2 S1 R2 R3 (Futures)

6 Currency USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR November Imports Strategy Partially hedged at for the day Partially hedged at & Spot for the day. Partially booked at Spot for the day hedge at for the day Hedging Strategies November Exports Strategy Partially hedged at for the day hedge at on Spot for the day hedge at for the day Partially hedged at for the day Economic Data for the Day Time Currency Data Forecast Previous 10:30 AM INR Nikkei Services PMI (Nov) :00 PM GBP Services PMI :00 PM USD Trade Balance -46.2B -43.5B 8:30 PM USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Report prepared by: Siddhesh Ghare siddhesh.ghare@karvy.com Deepak Agarwal deepak.agarwal@karvy.com Ashutosh Shukla ashutosh.shukla@karvy.com Head Office Karvy Millennium,Plot No 31, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad Corporate Office 131, Andheri Industrial Estate, Off Veera Desai Road, Andheri (W), Mumbai T: / 6635 T: , Mob No Disclaimer: The information and analysis contained in this document come from sources believed to be reliable and our own internal research; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of this information. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute an offer to sell/purchase or an invitation/ solicitation to do so for any currency, security, commodity or equity. Karvy Forex & Currencies Pvt. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this document, its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.no part of this document can be