Currency Highlights. 23 rd Feb HighLights:

Transcription

1 HighLights: Indian Rupee retreated from highs to on Wednesday US Existing Home Sales gained to 5.69 million in January German Ifo Business Climate surged to 111-mark in February UK s Second Estimate GDP grew by 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2016 Indian Rupee retreated from its high and depreciated marginally around 4 paise to end at against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency depreciated on account of month end dollar demand from importers and banks along with investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India s release of minutes, which was due after 5pm on Wednesday and US Federal Reserve minutes in late night. Since the beginning of this year, the rupee has gained 1.49%, while foreign institutional investors have bought $1.28 billion and $ million from local equity and debt markets, respectively. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of upbeat domestic market sentiments. Indian Rupee moved in the range of to in Wednesday s trade. Market Highlights Last Prev Cl. Price Chng Price Chng % Dollar Index USD/INR (Spot) USD/INR (Nse Feb) EUR/INR (Spot) (0.15) (0.21) EUR/INR (Nse Feb) (0.75) (1.07) GBP/INR (Spot) (0.06) (0.07) GBP/INR (Nse Feb) (0.09) (0.11) JPY/INR (Nse Feb) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at and Euro stood at as on 22nd Feb 17. For the month of February2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs crores ($ million) as on 22ndFebruary Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs crores ($ million) as on 22ndFebruary2017. US Dollar Index dropped around 0.2 percent in Wednesday s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favourable economic data from the country. US Existing Home Sales gained by 0.18 million to 5.69 million in January as against a rise of 5.51 million a month ago. Euro against dollar gained around 0.2 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with favourable economic data from the region. However, weak global market sentiments in later part of the trade prevented further positive movement in the currency. German Ifo Business Climate surged by 1.2 points to 111-mark in February as against a rise of level in January. Euro Zone Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at 1.8 percent in January. Euro Zone Final Core CPI also unchanged at 0.9 percent in previous month. The Sterling Pound fell around 0.2 percent in Wednesday s trade on account of weak global market sentiments in later part of the trade. However, favourable economic data from the country along with weakness in the dollar index cushioned sharp fall in the currency. UK s Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2016 as against a rise of 0.6 percent in earlier quarter. Prelim Business Investment plunged by 1 percent in fourth quarter of last year from a rise of 0.4 percent in Q3 of The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.34 percent in Wednesday s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments in later part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.

2 USDINR JPYINR The pair has been trading in falling channel pattern from past few weeks and price has taken the support of its lower band of channel pattern at levels on the hourly chart. Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 HSMA which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices. A momentum indicator RSI has taken support at 30 levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be seen in the prices. In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover and moving above its signal line on an hourly chart. So for trading perspective, one can buy USDINR in range with SL of for the target of On a daily chart, the pair has taken the support of its rising channel pattern at levels. The pair has been trading in horizontal channel pattern from past few weeks and price has taken the support of its lower band at levels on the daily chart. Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21HSMA which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices. On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is trading above 45 levels which indicate upside momentum can be seen in the prices. In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover which suggests strength in the prices on the daily chart. So for trading perspective, one can JPYINR buy in the range of with SL of for the target of levels. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR The pair has been trading in symmetrical triangle formation from past few weeks and price has faced the resistance of its upper band of the pattern at levels on the daily chart. Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DSMA, which suggest short term trend looks down. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given negative crossover on a daily chart, which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices. The momentum indicator RSI has been trading below 60 levels on the daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of further downside momentum in the prices. For now, we expect prices should move lower towards levels coming trading sessions. The prices have been trading in falling channel pattern from past few months and price has faced the resistance of its upper band of channel pattern at 73 levels on a daily chart. The pair has been trading below its 21 DSMA on the hourly chart, which suggests further weakness can be seen in the prices. On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been moving below 50 levels on the hourly chart, which suggests bearishness in the prices. A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover on the hourly chart, which supports our bearish view on the prices. For now, we can expect prices should move lower towards levels in the coming trading session. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 GBPINR EURINR

4 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact :30 AM FOMC Meeting Minutes More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; :00 PM Unemployment Claims 239K 242K Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; USDINR :30 PM Crude Oil Inventories 9.5M

5