Currency Highlights. 19 th July 2016

Transcription

1 HighLights: India s Rupee depreciated for second consecutive day on Monday US NAHB Housing Market Index plunged to 59-mark in current month Euro against dollar gained around 0.1 percent in yesterday s trade Japanese banks were shut yesterday on eve of Marine Day holiday Indian Rupee remained under pressure and declined for second continue to depreciate around 12 paise to end at against the US dollar on Monday. The currency depreciated on dollar demand from importers and banks. Additionally, plunge in domestic market sentiments kept pressure on the currency. Further, statement from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan ruling out a rate cut in the next policy meeting kept pressure on the currency.however, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of good inflow of foreign capital. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of good inflow of foreign capital. Market Highlights Last Prev Cl. Price Chng Price Chng % Dollar Index USD/INR (Spot) (0.01) (0.01) USD/INR (Nse July) EUR/INR (Spot) (0.17) (0.23) EUR/INR (Nse July) (0.50) (0.67) GBP/INR (Spot) GBP/INR (Nse July) (0.86) (0.97) JPY/INR (Nse July) (0.50) (0.67) Indian Rupee moved in the range of to in Monday s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at and Euro stood at in Monday s trade. US Dollar Index plunged marginally in yesterday s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country kept pressure on the currency. US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index plunged marginally by 1 point to 59-mark in July from 60-level in June. TIC Long-Term Purchases Euro against dollar gained around 0.1 percent on Monday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the dollar index led to upside in the currency. However, sharp rise in the currency was prevented due to estimates of unfavourable economic data from the region during the week. The Sterling Pound rose around 0.23 percent in Monday s trade due to weaker dollar. Further, upbeat global market sentiments led to upside movement in the currency. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped as a result of anticipation of weak economic data from the country in the coming days. The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.72 percent in Monday s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, less volatility was observed as Japanese banks were shut yesterday on the eve of Marine Day holiday.

2 USDINR JPYINR The prices have been taking support of its rising trend line at 67 levels on daily chart. Price has formed bullish engulfing pattern on daily chart. The USDINR has been trading in rising channel pattern and taking support of its lower band of channel pattern at levels on daily chart. Moreover, price have been trading above its 200 daily exponential moving average which suggest near term remains up. So any dip in the prices towards 67 level, used as buying opportunity. A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 40 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices. A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover on 4 hourly chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices. For now we expect prices to move higher towards levels in few trading sessions. The pair have been taking support of its horizontal trend line at levels on daily chart. The pair has been taking support of its lower band of channel pattern at 63 levels on daily chart. In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its 50 daily exponential moving average which gives the positive confirmation to the prices. Moreover, price has been taking support of its 61.80% Fibonacci retracement levels t levels on daily. On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above 40 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices. A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bullish. For now we expect prices to move higher towards levels in few trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern on daily which is bullish pattern. Price has been falling trend line at 89 levels on daily chart. The pair has taken support of its horizontal trend line at levels. The price has completed bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern on daily chart levels. A momentum indicator RSI has moved in oversold zone at 27 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on daily chart which support our bullish view on the pair. For now we expect prices should move higher towards levels in the coming trading sessions. The price has given breakdown of its rising trend line at levels and price has retested the breakdown trend line at levels on daily chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 50 daily exponential moving average which indicates that trend is remains up. A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 40 levels on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the prices. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on the pair. For now we expect prices should move lower towards levels in the coming trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 GBPINR EURINR

4 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact :00pm CPI y/y 0.3% 0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for :00pm PPI Input m/m 2.6% 0.9% Actual > Forecast = Good for :00pm RPI y/y 1.4% 1.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for :30pm German ZEW Economic Sentiment Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; EURINR :30pm ZEW Economic Sentiment Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; EURINR :00pm Building Permits 1.14M 1.15M Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; USDINR :00pm Housing Starts 1.16M 1.17M Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; USDINR :35pm MPC Member Broadbent Speaks

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