Currency Highlights. 08 th Nov 2017

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1 Highlights: The dollar held onto gains against other major currencies on Tuesday, as growing expectations for an upcoming U.S. rate hike continued to support demand for the greenback and investors continued to monitor progress on a U.S. tax bill. The dollar pushed higher against a basket of the other major currencies on Tuesday as investors continued to monitor the progress of the U.S. tax bill, while the euro fell to the lowest level in three months. The Aussie posted a mild rebound as the central bank held rates steady and pointed to wages and house prices as areas of focus as investors look ahead to remarks fby President Donald Trump in South Korea. The Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest interest rate decision and held its benchmark cash rate at 1.50% as expected, signaling it is watching the housing market closely and that a higher Australian dollar is restraining price pressures. Market Highlights Close Prev Cls. Price Chg Price Chg % Doller Index USD/INR (Spot) USD/INR (Nse Nov) EUR/INR (Spot) EUR/INR (Nse Nov) GBP/INR (Spot) GBP/INR (Nse Nov) JPY/INR (Nse Nov) Japanese wages fell 0.1 percent in September from a year earlier after adjustment for inflation, down for the fourth straight month, suggesting consumer inflation could take a hit as salaries fail to keep pace with rising prices. The decline, announced by the labor ministry on Tuesday, comes despite persistent calls by the government for companies to boost salaries to help drive economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday held its benchmark cash rate at 1.50% as expected, signaling it is watching the housing market closely and that a higher Australian dollar is restraining price pressures. British retail spending fell last month at the fastest pace for any October since 2008 as consumers curbed purchases of non-food goods in the face of rising inflation, a survey showed on Tuesday. Retail sales values slid by an annual 1.0 percent on a like-for-like basis, which strips out changes in store size, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said, compared with a 1.9 percent rise in September. Australian's already anaemic inflation rate looks set to be revised lower as changing spending habits by consumers are taken into account, further pushing out the day when interest rates might rise from record lows. A five-year update of household spending patterns issued on Monday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) implied the consumer price index (CPI) was overstating inflation by around 0.22 percentage points. North American commercial property insurance rates could rise by as much as 25 percent during 2018 for properties that suffered catastrophe losses this year, according to a report on Monday by insurance brokerage Willis Towers Watson (N:WTW).

2 USDINR JPYINR On the daily chart, USDINR gave breakout above the falling channel; recently has completed retesting of the breakout zone. Moreover, 50 SMA and 100 SMA are in bullish crossover which is expected to provide positive breadth to the pair price. Momentum indicator RSI (14) has shown positive crossover. On the basis of above technical structure, we expect prices should move higher towards levels in the coming trading sessions. On the daily chart, JPYINR has been traded in a rangebound movement; on the lower end price has found support at the lower band of the channel. Moreover, price has fallen significantly below the 50 SMA; historically price has tendency to converge with 50 SMA, shortly after the divergence. In addition, momentum indicator RSI (14) has shown positive crossover which suggests recovery in the price going forward. For now, we expect price to move up towards levels in the coming trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR JPYINR

3 GBPINR EURINR On the daily chart, the pair has been trading in the upward channel pattern which is a bullish set up. Moreover, price is observed to have found support around 100 SMA. Furthermore, 50, 100 and 200 SMAs are in bullish crossover. In addition, momentum indicator RSI (14) is in bullish crossover and rising. On the daily chart, the price has found support at the lower band of the falling channel. Moreover, price has been finding support at its 100 SMA, which indicates bearish movement in the price. In addition, RSI (14) has found support at the oversold zone on the daily chart. For now, we can expect prices to recover towards the levels in the coming trading sessions. For now, we expect prices to move higher towards levels in the coming trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 EURINR GBPINR

4 Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact

5 Kkunal Parar Sr. Research Associate Ankur Lakhotia Sr. Research Associate Rupak De Research Associate for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.27% to $1, a troy ounce. Demand from Sachin Gupta Research Associate sachin.gupta@choiceindia.com