Weekly outlook for Mar

Transcription

1 Weekly outlook for Mar Summary The S&P500 index is expected to test February's low first and bounce from it before the Good Friday holiday. The end of the month and the end of the quarter may move the market around in this short week. Oil had a tremendous run up in the last two days of the week. The price could retrace first and then bounce again above $ An intermediate/long-term target around $75 is a real possibility. GOLD is expected to go up a little further and retrace somewhat before Good Friday. Gold is rallying, but external news has a great impact on the price. Trade wars and the appointment of more war-hawks to the Trump administration suggest there is more upside to come. Economic Reports. This week marks the end of the week and the last trading day of the quarter. The schedule for economic reports is fairly light, but there is often some turbulence in the market at the end of the quarter. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 1 of 8

2 SP500 index (ES mini, and SPY) LONG-TERM TREND DIRECTION: Up Trade strategy: flat The long term trend direction remains up, but for the long-term the market is overbought. Most stocks are greatly over-valued. The Monthly PMO indicator has a negative divergence with price. The Monthly chart pattern has a potential bearish gulf candle. All of this points to a short-term and medium-term correction. INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: Short on bounce under 2715 The intermediate-term trend is up. But the weekly PMO indicator crossed below the signal line and gave a sell signal. Now 2568, where the 50-wEMA line overlaps the 200-dEMA line, constitutes a key zone. If the market fails to hold above this key zone, the index could slip further down. The bearish symmetrical pattern gives a target for a further decline around the 2485 area. The 38% Fibonacci retracement from this year's high to the 2016 low is 2465, so the zone would be a reasonable target for any intermediate-term decline. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 2 of 8

3 SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: flat but favoring the downside Trade strategy: Short on strong bounce if price doesn't test February low or scalping buy for ultra-short-term bounce if the index tests February low and holds there. The SP500 index closed above its 200-dEMA line on Friday, but the sell-off in the last two days was bearish and could continue if the trade war gets worse. This week the 200 dma will play a major role for the short- and medium-term. A break below it could lead to a test of the February low around 2530 or lower toward The Daily momentum trend direction is down, and there is a momentum selling signal. The Daily PMO indicator also has a selling signal. The 2655 area is the neckline of a bearish double top pattern which will be the first resistance area. If the index stays below it, the full measurement downside target will be around the area. But an oversold bounce is possible. In that case the bounce could reach the 20/50-dEMA lines at 2715 (major short-term resistance) if the index manages to hold above the 200-dEMA line. Weekly Option Strike price Expiration Strike price Expiration 2755 Meanline /26/2018 **** 3/28,29/ **** see daily trading plan In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 3 of 8

4 2. Oil ($WTIC, CL) LONG-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: flat The long-term outlook didn't change much last week. The price starts to challenge the overhead resistance line, the 200-mEMA line. A break through that resistance and closing for the month (and the quarter) above it could turn the long-term outlook more bullish. INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on major support at 20-wEMA line Oil has formed a range from $66.35 to $58 since the price broke last November's high. Now it may be time for oil to break out from this range. The Weekly PMO continues to have a buy signal, as does the Momentum trend indicator. A break above $66.50 line could indicate a monthly range breakout move; in that case $75 will be the next upside target. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 4 of 8

5 SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on dip Oil broke out of its a falling wedge pattern last Tuesday and had a tremendous run up. The Daily PMO has a buy signal, and is not yet overbought. We are likely to see oil price going higher. Now the $63-$62 area is a major short-term support zone. As long as it holds up, the resistance around the January high at $66.50 will be challenged. Buying on dips will be seen. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 5 of 8

6 3. GOLD (GC, GLD) LONG-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on dip The long-term trend is up. Gold managed to hold above the $1300 level to avoid triggering long-term correction. Now the monthly PMO indicator has a buy signal. Gold could be holding up for a while. First the sideways range from $1370 to $1300 will be the focus of attention. An upside break out from this range will be bullish for the long term. INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on dip above $1310 area. The Intermediate-term trend is up. The weekly PMO indicator corrected itself and resumed moving to the upside. Now $1370 will be key for an upside move. A break above it will prompt a stop run and push the price higher to the year 2016 high area. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 6 of 8

7 SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: range trading first. If there is an upside range breakout, buy on dip Gold managed to hold above $1300 line to avoid triggering a bearish price move. In addition the trade war encourages investors to search for a safe haven, and gold is one of the options. The daily PMO indicator has a buy signal, and so does the daily momentum trend indicator. Both will convince traders to buy on dips. However external news will continue to influence Gold and we should still watch the broad range from $1360 to $1300. We may see price retraces from $1360 area before the Good Friday holiday. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 7 of 8

8 WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORTS In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and judgment. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Ltd. shall have no liability of whatever Page 8 of 8