Weekly outlook for June 12 June

Transcription

1 Weekly outlook for June 12 June TREND DIRECTION S&P 500 Oil Gold Short Term Intermediate-Term Long Term weak buy buy Weak neutral Strong sell buy buy buy Summary The S&P500 index is expected to move in both directions this week, depending on which way it goes first on Monday. Because of the June option expiration, the index could set up a range 2455 to 2395 and whipsaw within it. Oil is expected to hold up the $43.75 line and have an oversold bounce. GOLD is expected to make a low move first, but it could either go further down or bounce, depending on whether the $1250 line holds up or not. Page 1 of 8

2 1. SP500 index (ESmini, and SPY): Based on Feb the Long-term momentum trend indicates the uptrend remains strong, but the overbought condition gets more mature and more extreme. The long-term bull market could have some kind of consolidation move or minor pullback in the next several weeks. Based on Feb, 2016 the intermediate-term momentum trend indicator points up and maintans its BUY signal. But the price is near the top uptrend resistance line with an extreme long-term overbought condition. The weekly PMO indicator and slow STO indicator had a small rise last week, but hint that the index is weak on the upside. At the same time, the price hit our first target zone ( ) of the yearly breakout range pattern and had an intraday reversal from the high. The overbought condition cries for a correction. Page 2 of 8

3 ES, SPX, Short term Based on May 2017 the short-term momentum trend still is up. The daily PMO indicator stopped rising and gets ready to change its direction soon. The index made new, all-time highs intraday, but couldn't hold the gain. It reversed to sell back down to retest the breakout range Fortunately for the longs it managed to hold up the breakout range and closed at the middle of the trading range. This could result from Contract rollover, but it also reminds us that the market may be changing direction. This week is Quardruple witch expiration, and will set the tone for the following week's price move. A close under 2415 this week would suggest a short-term correction is on the way. The Index could head toward or lower if a correction occurs. Weekly Option Strike price Expiration Date Strike price Expiration Date /6/ /6/9 Meanline /6/ /6/16 Page 3 of 8

4 2. Oil ($WTIC, CL) Based on Dec the Long-term momentum trend is bearish and the strong SELL signal continues. The Nov intermediate-term trend momentum indicator may change from NEUTRAL to 'SELL soon. Both weekly PMO and slow STO indicators are declining and keep their SELL signal. Oil is testing the support line of the triangle pattern right now. This week $44-$43.75 becomes a very important area. If it holds, it could lead to a short-term bounce. But any bounce will not change the intermediate-term downtrend direction. It will only attract more sellers as long as the price is below the $50 area. Page 4 of 8

5 Oil - Short term Based on May 25, 2017 the short-term momentum trend is bearish and SELL signal continues. The daily PMO indicator gave a SELL signal last Wednesday. The slow STO indicator is extremely oversold, and we may see a brief oversold bounce after oil successfully tests May's low area at $44-$ $48-$50 is the major short-term resistance zone. SHORT on major resistance zone area and buy on May's low area should be this week's trading strategy. Page 5 of 8

6 3. GOLD (GC, GLD) Based on Oct Long-term momentum trend indicator stays in Neutral area. The Monthly PMO indicator BUY signal remains and Slow STO slowly moved up. Both hint that the $1300 line is a strong resistance. Based on Dec the intermediate-term momentum trend BUY signal remains, but last week GOLD met strong resistance around $1300 (overlaps long-term downtrend line) and reversed from it. This means the long-term downtrend is firm. A further pullback into the 200- weekly moving average line is likely in coming weeks. Page 6 of 8

7 Gold - Short term The May short-term trend momentum trend is NEUTRAL. Both daily PMO indicator and Slow STO indicator turn down and suggest that $ is a key zone for this week. A break below $1250 could trigger short-term selling. Last Friday's move suggests that a shortterm top has been posted. GOLD may return to May's low area if the $1250 support line fails to hold up this week. Page 7 of 8

8 WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORTS Page 8 of 8