Weekly outlook for May 28/9 - June 1, 2018

Transcription

1 Weekly outlook for May 28/9 - June 1, 2018 Summary The S&P500 index is expected to be dull due to the short week, barring major news. A minor pullback maybe seen, but it should be a very short-lived. It is close to the time for the market to break out of the consolidation range and establish a new direction. Oil is expected to continue its correction this week. Shorts will come in on bounces. Oil broke down through the 20-dEMA line very hard and dipped below the breakout level at $ That breakout level becomes resistance; $66 or $61 is a reasonable short- and intermediate-term target, but watch the news carefully. GOLD is expected to hold under $1310 and above the $ zone. Gold broke down from a five-month consolidation range, then bounced back to the breakdown point last week. Could be a short oversold bounce. Watch the US dollar movement. Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 1 of 8

2 SP500 index (ES mini, and SPY): INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy There is not much change on the intermediate term. The trend still is up. The SP500 index broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern two weeks ago, and the price is consolidating just above the breakout. The weekly PMO is still falling, but price is still positive. The 20-wEMA line is expected to hold the SP500 index up for this holiday-shortened week. Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 2 of 8

3 SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: buy on major support zone, or short at top resistance area of rising channel. The short-term trend is up, but upside momentum strength was not strong. SP500 index consolidated above 20-dEMA lines for two weeks while daily PMO reached its top area last Friday. The range may get more and more narrow. It is time for ES to pick up next direction move. It could break out in either direction. For the upside, zone is a key zone; for the downside, zone is a key. Both are control areas for the next breakout move, whichever direction it takes. Weekly Option Strike price 2765 Expiration Date Strike price Expiration Date Meanline /29/2018 **** 5/30, 31 6/1, **** see daily trading plan Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 3 of 8

4 2. Oil ($WTIC, CL) INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: up Trade strategy: Short on bounce, or buy if/when oil has an oversold condition The intermediate-term trend is up but but price has an overbought condition. The weekly PMO has topped and Slow STO indicator also topped. Oil has reached the top of a rising trend channel, and a pullback towards the bottom of the channel (parallel green lines on the chart) should be expected as a reasonable correction. Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 4 of 8

5 SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: correcting with overbought condition Trade strategy: short on bounce Oil broke down through the 20-dEMA line very hard and dipped below the breakout level at $ Now the breakout level returns as resistance, and oil may go down further toward $66 or $61 for short- and intermediate-term correction. Daily PMO indicator has a selling signal. Any bounce may not last very long. $69.50-$70.20 is a resistance zone. Short on bounce will be seen this week. Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 5 of 8

6 3. GOLD (GC, GLD) INTERMEDIATE-TERM TREND DIRECTION: flat Trade strategy: none The intermediate-term trend should be considered neutral or flat. There is a double top pattern within the five-month sideways range, and gold broke the lower boundary in the prior week. Last week Gold attempted to bounce back to re-test the breakdown point. The weekly PMO indicator stays above the positive area, but price seems to go wrong direction. This could be a short-term oversold bounce which may end soon. A break below $1275 could lead Gold to fall into the $ zone. Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 6 of 8

7 SHORT-TERM TREND DIRECTION: down Trade strategy: scalping on buy side above $1275, short on bounce that stays below the major resistance $ Gold had an oversold bounce last week. It closed at the broken support level of the five-month sideways range last Friday. The 20/40-dEMA lines turn into first resistance zone for gold this week. A break above $1325 level could lead price go back to the top of sideways range again. But a big problem for Gold is strong US$. Going back to the top may not be seen shortly. Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 7 of 8

8 WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORTS Copyright 2018 by Ltd. All rights reserved. Photocopying and further distribution of this newsletter are strictly prohibited. Information, opinion, research, and commentary contained herein is Page 8 of 8