Morning Trading Comments

Transcription

1 Monday, June 18, Morning Trading Comments SUMMARY OF TRADING VIEWS Technical breakdowns seen on a lot of commodities at the end of last week, combined with further weakness in emerging markets, suggest a mixed start for the new week. Kospi index dropped below an important support at 2400 this night and is getting close to year lows. Mood is more bullish on US equities but the S&P 500 should continue to encounter resistance near 2800 in the near term. In Europe, indices made a meaningful breakout last Thursday but will need to make contained setbacks today to validate these positive chartist signals. CROSS ASSET EVENTS Oil prices breaking down The consolidation which started on Brent in late May continues. After two weeks of sideways trading, prices accelerated downwards on Friday and broke below the rising 50-day MA for first time since March. Brent also dropped below a chartist support line which could be seen as the neckline of a Head & Shoulder forming since late April (theoretical downside target is at USD69). Watch intermediate Fibonacci support zone at 71. Also noticed that Gold prices made a ST breakdown on Friday after falling to move back above its 200-day MA. Commodities, except Natural Gas, are feeling the pain in light of a strengthening US dollar. Technical Analysis Cyril BAUDRILLART, CFTe cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com

2 Monday, June 18, DETAILED TRADING OUTLOOK ON MAIN INDICES S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE (ESU8) RESISTANCES 2787 / 2806 / 2815 SUPPORTS 2768 / 2751 / 2738 Comments Taking a breather below the 2800 area. PREFERRED CASE for next days The index is taking a breather below the 2800 resistance zone. New pullback on Friday towards Fibonacci support at This support has been holding so far but a break below it would suggest further weakness to EURO STOXX 50 FUTURE (VGU8) RESISTANCES 3510 / 3540 / 3564 SUPPORTS 3480 / 3450 / 3434 Comments Critical juncture following last Thursday s breakout. PREFERRED CASE for next days Bull trap or start of a meaningful rally last Thursday? We will soon have the answer as the index is making a pullback near 3480, the important ST resistance broken last week. If the index does not quickly recover, it would mean that the revival observed since late May was just an A/B/C corrective move according to Elliott waves. Critical day ahead.

3 Monday, June 18, DAX 30 FUTURE (GXU8) RESISTANCES / / SUPPORTS / / Comments becoming an important support zone. PREFERRED CASE for next days The index will preferably hold above the area to validate last Thursday s breakout DAILY SCREENING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES (STOXX 600) Upside breakouts - Downside breakouts Playtech TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS CONTRARIAN TRADING IDEAS TRADING BUY Near 200-day MAs Weir Group PLC/The Perfected TD setup 9 Buy Paddy Power Betfair, Tullow Oil, John Wood Group Oversold - TRADING SELL Perfected TD setup 9 Sell William Demant Holding Overbought - See all charts in next pages

4 Monday, June 18, TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Downside breakouts PTEC LN Equity : Playtech Plc

5 Monday, June 18, CONTRARIAN TRADING BUY IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Buy signals PPB ID Equity : Paddy Power Betfair PLC TLW LN Equity : Tullow Oil PLC WG/ LN Equity : John Wood Group PLC

6 Monday, June 18, Stocks back on 200-day MA WEIR LN Equity : Weir Group PLC/The

7 Monday, June 18, CONTRARIAN TRADING SELL IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell WDH DC Equity : William Demant Holding A/S

8 Monday, June 18, Technical Analysis Equity Sales Cyril BAUDRILLART Cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com Methodology All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku, Keltner Bands and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit for more information. Disclaimer Any investments or securities referred to in communications between us ( Investments ) may involve significant risks and not necessarily be suitable for all investors. Such risk may involve, without limitation, market risk, high volatility, credit and default risk, illiquidity, currency risk and interest rate risk. There can be no assurance that the Investments will achieve their investment objective and as a consequence an investor may in certain circumstances lose their entire investment. Any potential investor should ensure they understand all of the risks associated with these Investments, including any legal, tax, accounting and other business considerations. Investors are deemed to have sufficient knowledge, experience and access to appropriate professional advice to assess the suitability and risks of an investment in these Investments. TFD will not be liable whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the information relating to the Investments ( Information ) or any omission by TFD in respect of such Investments. While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of Information, including any valuations, opinions or estimates, no representation or warranty is made as to its validity, timeliness, completeness, accuracy or reliability and it should not be relied upon as such. All Information is subject to change without notice. In producing all Information, TFD is not acting in any capacity whatsoever as a financial adviser or fiduciary to potential investors. Potential investors must consult with their own legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting advisors as deemed necessary. No provision of information regarding Investments shall constitute an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This document is directed at Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not for distribution to nor should it be relied upon by Retail Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to any applicable law or regulation. The investments referred to in this document are not at any time to be offered, sold, resold or delivered, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to US persons. This document may not be distributed in the United States. Please note that, for business or compliance reasons, we may monitor and read s sent or received using our servers or equipment. TFD hereby reserves all rights in the Information and you may not disseminate the Information without prior approval.