Morning Trading Comments

Transcription

1 Monday, September 03, Morning Trading Comments SUMMARY OF TRADING VIEWS European stockmarket indices resumed their downtrend over the last few sessions showing that, despite the recent technical bounces, the global outlook of these markets remain weak. The BTP/Bund spread hit its highest level of the year with FTSE MIB index trading at year low. The charts of most EU indices remain lackluster. CROSS ASSET EVENTS FTSE 100 closed the week below its 200-day MA European stockmarkets remain weak and not only in the Euro Zone. Whilst IBEX 35 and FTSE MIB indices are trading near their lowest levels of the year, the FTSE 100 index, although stronger, also weakened last week. For the first time since late April it dropped below its 200- day MA on Friday as well as below an important chartist support zone around The index should stay under pressure in the near term and possibly retrace between 61.8% and 76.4% of the April- May rally, giving downside targets between 7263 and On the upside, watch resistance around 7650 with a strong one at Technical Analysis Cyril BAUDRILLART, CFTe cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com

2 Monday, September 03, DETAILED TRADING OUTLOOK ON MAIN INDICES S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE (ESU8) RESISTANCES 2907 / 2911 / 2917 SUPPORTS 2890 / 2882 / 2874 Comments Watch support at PREFERRED CASE for next days The index took a breather over the last two sessions but it is too early to anticipate a significant trend change. The 60-min Point & Figure chart remains bullish with next upside targets around To confirm this bull case, the index will preferably hold above 2890 at the start of this week. EURO STOXX 50 FUTURE (VGU8) RESISTANCES 3407 / 3418 / 3427 SUPPORTS 3366 / 3350 / 3336 Comments Start of a new selloff at the end of last week. PREFERRED CASE for next days Renewed weakness seen over the last few sessions. In just 3 days, the index erased more than 61.8% of its previous relief rally, a sign of persistent weakness. Unlike on the S&P 500, the Euro STOXX 50 s 60-min Point & Figure chart is currently bearish. Today, possible tech bounce to 2400 but not much higher than

3 Monday, September 03, DAX 30 FUTURE (GXU8) RESISTANCES / / SUPPORTS / / Comments Renewed weakness after an unconvincing technical bounce. PREFERRED CASE for next days The index failed to confirm the recent ST recovery and has already retraced more than 50% of the recent recovery. Watch Fibonacci support at as an important support this morning due to oversold conditions on 240-min time frame. Possible start of a tech bounce to but not much higher. DAILY SCREENING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES (STOXX 600) Upside breakouts Whitbread Downside breakouts - TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS TRADING BUY Near 200-day MAs - Perfected TD setup 9 Buy - Oversold - CONTRARIAN TRADING IDEAS TRADING SELL Perfected TD setup 9 Sell Aker BP, Bucher Industries, Kinnevik Overbought Investor AB See all charts in next pages

4 Monday, September 03, TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Upside breakouts WTB LN Equity : Whitbread PLC

5 Monday, September 03, CONTRARIAN TRADING SELL IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Sell AKERBP NO Equity : Aker BP ASA BUCN SE Equity : Bucher Industries AG KINVB SS Equity : Kinnevik AB

6 Monday, September 03, Stocks overbought on a daily basis INVEB SS Equity : Investor AB

7 Monday, September 03, Technical Analysis Equity Sales Cyril BAUDRILLART Cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com Methodology All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku, Keltner Bands and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit for more information. Disclaimer Any investments or securities referred to in communications between us ( Investments ) may involve significant risks and not necessarily be suitable for all investors. Such risk may involve, without limitation, market risk, high volatility, credit and default risk, illiquidity, currency risk and interest rate risk. There can be no assurance that the Investments will achieve their investment objective and as a consequence an investor may in certain circumstances lose their entire investment. Any potential investor should ensure they understand all of the risks associated with these Investments, including any legal, tax, accounting and other business considerations. Investors are deemed to have sufficient knowledge, experience and access to appropriate professional advice to assess the suitability and risks of an investment in these Investments. TFD will not be liable whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the information relating to the Investments ( Information ) or any omission by TFD in respect of such Investments. While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of Information, including any valuations, opinions or estimates, no representation or warranty is made as to its validity, timeliness, completeness, accuracy or reliability and it should not be relied upon as such. All Information is subject to change without notice. In producing all Information, TFD is not acting in any capacity whatsoever as a financial adviser or fiduciary to potential investors. Potential investors must consult with their own legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting advisors as deemed necessary. No provision of information regarding Investments shall constitute an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This document is directed at Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not for distribution to nor should it be relied upon by Retail Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to any applicable law or regulation. The investments referred to in this document are not at any time to be offered, sold, resold or delivered, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to US persons. This document may not be distributed in the United States. Please note that, for business or compliance reasons, we may monitor and read s sent or received using our servers or equipment. TFD hereby reserves all rights in the Information and you may not disseminate the Information without prior approval.