Weekly Technical Review

Transcription

1 Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Limited Weekly Technical Review 2 nd February 2016

2 Highlights (1) Equity Markets S&P500 Daily WehaveturnedBearishonUSEquities.Howeverwearecurrentlyplayingameanreversionmoveafterthe13% downturn we saw from peak to trough. The retracement levels are / & Our target is to be hedged 100% on equities by the time the market reaches the ultimate retracement level at Nasdaq Daily SimilarlytotheS&P500,webelievetheNasdaqcouldretracetolevelsrangingbetween4 365to4 465.Reduce long exposure during the process via shorting futures or selling long positions. Russel 2000 Weekly USMidcapshavehadamassivebreakdownontheweeklycloseafter10Negativesessionsoutof12.TheIndex is entering in oversold territory and we recommend investors to take advantage of any bounce to short this underlying that WILL go lower. Target Levels are between 880 & 930 on the downside / to on the upside. DJ Eurostoxx 50 Weekly The DJ Eurostoxx 50 has now officially broken the 2015 weekly lows and is on track to potentially reach to in the short term. We recommend reducing equity exposure drastically at this stage having a lack of visibility for a constructive Bull pattern. On support levels, buy Eurostoxx 50 to play rebounds (it will outperform). Nikkei 225 Weekly The Nikkei has also broken the lows of 2015 in the past few days and could be on track to reach in the coming weeks. Short term bounce to pursue until we reach on the back of the Central Bank intervention.

3 Highlights (2) Global Markets US T-Note Weekly In the current risky environment, US bonds could remain firm and a break above could propel the T- Notehigher.PleasenotethatdespitetheratehikeintheUS,the2Y-10Yyieldcurvehasflattenedbelow1%and has further room to go down if inflation expectations remain low. Dollar Index Daily The US Dollar moved up strongly on the back of the BoJ lowering interest rates. We expect to see the 2015 highsinthenearfutureandabreakof100.40wouldtriggerabreaktoalevelof Gold- Monthly In the view of the globalpicture, Gold COULD start tobeused as aproxy to protect retailinvestors in the short term. We have covered most short positions and see a potential rebound to USD in the short term if equities resume their bearish trend. Crude Oil- Monthly Crude Oil remains in a downtrend and has broken the lows of We had the 15-20% pop we expected and tradedoutofitduringthecourseoflastweek.wearestayingonthesidelinesonceagain.

4 Asset Management - YTD Performance Review Fixed Income Allocator (MT ) CSFFIAA MV Equity : Year-to-Date return -0.30% Historical Annualized Volatility 2.86% Historical Annualized Return 4.66% SCS Velocity CSFVLCU KY Equity : Estimated Year-to-Date return -0.15% Historical Annualized Volatility* 5.34% Historical Annualized Return* 6.62% Alpha Alternative LS FoHF : Estimated Year-to-Date return +0.50% Historical Annualized Volatility* 3.60% Historical Annualized Return* 7.60%

5 Asset Management New Strategies Fixed Income Allocator (MT ) CSFFIAA MV Equity : Year-to-Date return -0.30% Historical Annualized Volatility 2.86% Historical Annualized Return 4.66% SCS Velocity CSFVLCU KY Equity : Estimated Year-to-Date return -0.15% Historical Annualized Volatility* 5.34% Historical Annualized Return* 6.62% Alpha Alternative LS FoHF : Estimated Year-to-Date return +0.50% Historical Annualized Volatility* 3.60% Historical Annualized Return* 7.60%

6 Global Equities -YTD Performance Review Equity Indices Value Local YTD % Chg USD YTD % Chg EUR YTD % Chg North America Dow Jones 16' % -5.85% -6.23% S&P 500 1' % -5.37% -5.75% Nasdaq 100 4' % -7.04% -7.41% Europe EuroStoxx 50 3' % -7.20% -7.54% FTSE 6' % -0.89% -5.29% SMI 8' % -7.26% -7.64% DAX 9' % -8.83% -9.17% CAC 4' % -4.92% -5.28% MIB 18' % % % IBEX 8' % -7.57% -7.92% Asia & Emergings Nikkei 17' % -6.75% -7.17% HSCEI 8' % % % Kospi % -5.24% -5.25% TAIEX 8' % -3.96% -4.35% IBOV 40' % -6.98% -7.38% Nifty 7' % -7.29% -7.72% Russian RTS 11' % -4.39% -5.30% MSCI EM % -6.20% -6.57% MSCI World 1' % -6.05% -6.43%

7 Chart of the Week MSCI World 6YearGlobalEquityBullTrendBROKEN onaweeklybasis(10daysago) NewMSCIWorldTargetsetat1 385(10%lowerprices)afterweeklybreakat1 575 Takeadvantageofreboundupto1 635inordertoreduceriskinportfolios!!

8 Chart of the Week The Bullish Case S&P500 WeeklyChartSupportstheBullishCase In comparison to the World Equities (MSCI World Index), the S&P 500 closed the month on a Bullish Notesincetheindexmanagedtocloseabovethe6yeartrendline; Play bullish retracement that could reach up to 2 005;

9 EQUITY MARKETS

10 S&P 500 Daily We have turned Bearish on US Equities. However we are currently playing a mean reversion move after the 13% downturn we saw from peak to trough. The retracement levels are / & Our target is to be hedged 100% on equities by the time the market reaches the ultimate retracement level at 2 005

11 Nasdaq 500 Daily Similarly to the S&P 500, we believe the Nasdaq could retrace to levels ranging between to Reduce long exposure during the process via shorting futures or selling long positions.

12 Russell 2000 Weekly US Midcaps have had a massive breakdown on the weekly close after 10 Negative sessions out of 12. The Index is entering in oversold territory and we recommend investors to take advantage of any bounce to short this underlying thatwillgolower.targetlevelsarebetween880&930onthedownside/1 055to1 080ontheupside.

13 DJ Eurostoxx 50 -Weekly The DJ Eurostoxx50 has now officially broken the 2015 weekly lows and is on track to potentially reach to in the short term. We recommend reducing equity exposure drastically at this stage having a lack of visibility for a constructive Bull pattern. On support levels, buy Eurostoxx 50 to play rebounds (it will outperform).

14 Nikkei 225 -Weekly The Nikkei has also broken the lows of 2015 in the past few days and could be on track to reach in the coming weeks. Short term bounce to pursue until we reach on the back of the Central Bank intervention.

15 GLOBAL MARKETS

16 US T-Note -Weekly In the current risky environment, US bonds could remain firm and a break above could propel the T-Note higher. Please note that despite the rate hike in the US, the 2Y-10Y yield curve has flattened below 1% and has further room to go down if inflation expectations remain low.

17 Dollar Index Daily The US Dollar moved up strongly on the back of the BoJlowering interest rates. We expect to see the 2015 highs in the near future and a break of would trigger a break to a level of

18 Gold -Monthly In the view of the global picture, Gold COULD start to be used as a proxy to protect retail investors in the short term. We have covered most short positions and see a potential rebound to USD in the short term if equities resume their bearish trend.

19 Crude Oil -Monthly Crude Oil remains in a downtrend and has broken the lows of We had the 15-20% pop we expected and traded out of it during the course of last week. We are staying on the sidelines once again.

20 SECTORS AND RELATIVE VALUE

21 EuroStoxx vs. S&P 500 -Daily We see more upside on the EuroStoxx than the S&P 500 given our view on the Dollar and the technical pattern of each index. The relative performance remains close to multi years lows and there is ample room for a rebound. This view can be implemented as a long/short trade using mini-futures. Relative performance of the EuroStoxx versusthes&p500since2011.

22 Disclaimer Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Ltd has issued this document for information purposes only. This document may not be distributed to the United States, Canada, Australia or to any other jurisdiction in which its distribution is unlawful. If you require investment advice or wish to discuss the suitability of any investment decision, you should contact your professional advisers for financial, legal or tax advice when appropriate. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or service. Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Ltd has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified. Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Ltd makes no guarantees, representations or warranties, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. Members of the Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Ltd and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document(oranyrelatedinvestment)andmayfromtimetotimeaddtoordisposeofanysuchsecurities(orinvestment). In the case where this document is distributed in the United Kingdom by a person who is notauthorized by the United Kingdom FinancialServices Authority; itis only intended for persons who (i) have professional experience in matters related to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) ("high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc") of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (as amended) or to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated by such an unauthorized person (all such persons together being"relevant persons"). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not receive back the full amount invested. When an investment is denominated in a currency other than your local or reporting currency, changes in exchange rates may have an adverseeffecton thevalue, priceor incomeofthatinvestment. In thecaseofinvestments for which thereis no recognized market, itmay bedifficultforinvestors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risk to which they are exposed. Investment in any market may be extremely volatile and subject to sudden fluctuations of varying magnitude due to a wide range of direct and indirect, influences. Such characteristics can lead to considerable losses being incurred by those exposed to such markets. Copyright. Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Ltd 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Ucap Hong Kong Asset Management Ltd.